[h=1]Projecting the final Big Ten standings[/h]
Phil Steele
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The East could come down to Michigan and Ohio State again. Can the Wolverines finally get a win against the Buckeyes? The West, on the other hand, appears wide open. We project where each team in the Big Ten will finish.
[h=2]East[/h]
[h=3]1. Michigan Wolverines[/h]Michigan has not beaten Ohio State since 2011 but was favored last season in Columbus, where the Wolverines lost again, 62-39. While I have picked Ohio State higher than Michigan in the magazine for 12 straight years, this is the year it changes. I like the Wolverines' new offense, and Don Brown's defense figures to be in an angry mood after their last two games from 2018 in which they allowed a combined 994 yards and 103 points to Ohio State and Florida. Michigan gets all three of its rivals (Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State) at home in the Big House -- and Jim Harbaugh finally wins the Big Ten in Year 5 in Ann Arbor.
[h=3]2. Ohio State Buckeyes[/h]
The Buckeyes lose longtime head coach Urban Meyer to retirement and quarterback Dwayne Haskins (4,831 yards, 50 TDs) -- and eight other players -- to the NFL draft. Ohio State rarely looked dominant last season; four wins were by five points or fewer. The schedule also takes a big jump up with the Buckeyes facing the 17th-toughest schedule. The Buckeyes still probably will be favored in every game, with the exception of the season finale at the Big House. However, they have beaten Michigan seven straight years and must still be considered a national title contender.
[h=3]T-3. Michigan State Spartans[/h]Michigan State's offense was decimated by injuries last season, and that resulted in the unit averaging just 342 yards and 18.7 points per game. The Spartans did, however, lead the nation in rush defense (78 rush yards per game), and over the last eight games they allowed just 13.3 points per game. The defense looks even stronger with eight starters back, including defensive end Kenny Willekes (12 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks in 2018) and linebacker Joe Bachie (102 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss in 2018). The Spartans do have to play Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin on the road, so they will need a few upsets to win the East.
[h=3]T-3. Penn State Nittany Lions[/h]Expectations were low in 2016, but Penn State surprised everyone and won the Big Ten title and got to the Rose Bowl. The past couple of years the Nittany Lions have been ranked in the preseason top 10, so they were expected to contend in the East and finished second and third. This year they are just No. 124 on my experience chart, as they lose quarterback Trace McSorley and running back Miles Sanders (1,274 rush yards in 2018). Penn State still has one of the top defenses with six starters back, and now the Nittany Lions are under the radar and could be in store for another surprising year.
[h=3]T-5. Indiana Hoosiers[/h]Tom Allen put a scare into a lot of the big boys in his first two years as head coach, but surprisingly he has not pulled a single upset; all 10 of his wins have come when his team was the favorite. With 14 starters back, this team finally has the depth to win one of those games, and if they pull an upset or two, the Hoosiers finally will surpass that five-win mark they have been stuck on the past two seasons.
[h=3]T-5. Maryland Terrapins[/h]Last year, the Terps were a team in turmoil. They had to deal with a suspended head coach and then the prospect of him almost returning midseason. That is about the time the Terps went from 5-3 to 5-7, which included a loss to Ohio State in which a blown two-point conversion cost them a win. This year, they are just No. 99 on my experience chart. They do bring in quarterback Josh Jackson, who started 16 games at Virginia Tech, and return running back Anthony McFarland, who ran for 1,034 yards as a redshirt freshman. Maryland also has a solid offensive line and some star players on defense and will contend for that bowl game they just missed out on last season.
[h=3]7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights[/h]Head coach Chris Ash won four games in 2017, including three in conference (Illinois, Purdue, Maryland), in his second year despite Rutgers being outgained by 206 yards per game in Big Ten play. Last year was supposed to be a breakthrough season, but after a win in the opener, 11 losses followed. Rutgers did almost beat Northwestern and Michigan State late and improved its yard-per-game differential in Big Ten play to minus-161 yards per contest. Their quarterbacks combined to throw for only five touchdowns and 22 interceptions, and that should improve. The 2019 Scarlet Knights are Ash's best team yet, as 13 starters return, including eight on offense.
[h=2]West[/h]
[h=3]1. Nebraska Cornhuskers[/h]The Huskers were better than their 0-6 record in their first six games would indicate. They averaged just 23.3 points per game during that span but 36.6 points per game over the last six. Nebraska also had five losses by five points or fewer, so they were in quite a few games. This season, they avoid three of the top four teams in the Big Ten East, and the West is wide open. Nebraska also hosts the teams I have pegged for No. 2 and No. 3 in the West. My main set of power ratings has the Huskers at 10-2, and they are my No. 1 most improved team in the country.
[h=3]2. Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]Last year, Iowa opened up 6-1 but then lost three straight games by a total of 12 points (at Penn State, at Purdue and home vs. Northwestern). The Hawkeyes won their final three games and knocked off Mississippi State in their bowl game to finish No. 25 in the AP rankings. The strength of last season's defense was the defensive line, and all four starters are gone, but "backup" defensive lineman A.J. Epenesa had 10.5 sacks. The Hawkeyes return a solid secondary, three starters on the offensive line and a veteran quarterback in Nathan Stanley. They do face Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska on the road, but are very capable of winning this wide-open division.
[h=3]3. Wisconsin Badgers[/h]The Badgers were ranked No. 9 and No. 4 in the preseason the past two seasons, respectively, and came into last year winning the West three out of four years. The Badgers' defense wasn't bad last season (allowing 344 yards and 22.6 points per game) -- it just was not up to the lofty standards from years past (292 yards and 16.6 points per game from 2012 to 2017), and the Badgers finished three games behind Northwestern. Wisconsin is only No. 95 on my experience chart and draws Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State out of the East for the toughest schedule of any Big Ten West team. Despite picking them third, it would not surprise me if the Badgers returned to form and won the division.
[h=3]T-4. Minnesota Golden Gophers[/h]The Gophers beat some teams soundly late in the season (Purdue 41-10, Wisconsin 37-15, and Georgia Tech 34-10 in the bowl game), leading to a much higher year-end power rating than when they opened 1-5 in Big Ten play. Was that a sign of things to come (they started eight freshmen on offense in the bowl), or was it smoke and mirrors that has them rated higher than they should have been in my final rankings? They avoid three of the Big Ten powers, and three of my sets of power ratings call for double-digit wins, while some have them as low as 7-5. As you can tell, the Big Ten West is a tough division to call.
[h=3]T-4. Northwestern Wildcats[/h]Northwestern started 1-3 last year and went 0-4 in nonconference games. After winning their last seven Big Ten games in 2017, they finished 8-1 last season, so the Wildcats are on a 15-1 run in Big Ten play the past two years and clinched a conference title game berth with two weeks to go. This year, defensive end Joe Gaziano (7.5 sacks in 2018) and linebackers Paddy Fisher(116 tackles in 2018) and Blake Gallagher (127 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss in 2018) return, giving them a top-25 defense. Their quarterbacks combined for a 17-16 TD-interception ratio last season, and Hunter Johnson (my top-rated freshman quarterback in 2017) transfers in from Clemson and might be an upgrade. The schedule is tough, but the Wildcats were favored in just five games last season and won nine.
[h=3]T-4. Purdue Boilermakers[/h]
A sign of a good coach is when his team outperforms my power ratings projection each year. While Jeff Brohm's team was just 6-7 last season, they won five Big Ten games, including the 49-20 thrashing of Ohio State, to tie for second in the West. This year, the Boilermakers are dead last in the Big Ten at No. 126 on my experience chart. They need to keep quarterback Elijah Sindelar healthy, but they avoid three of the Big Ten's top four teams on their schedule. My combined power ratings call for a sixth-place finish, but since Brohm exceeds my projections every season, I will peg them fourth for 2019.
[h=3]7. Illinois Fighting Illini[/h]Coach Lovie Smith said he had a young team in each of his three years, and Illinois has been just No. 85, No. 124 and No. 100 on my experience chart those seasons. As a result of having young teams, Illinois is 4-23 in Big Ten play over that span. This season, Smith has 17 returning starters, including 10 on defense, and the Illini move up to No. 31 on my experience chart. There was progress last season, as the Illini ran the ball for 243 yards per game with a solid 5.9 yards per carry and went from two to four wins. The Fighting Illini should be favored in four games this season, so they will need to pull a few upsets to get to their first bowl game since 2014.
[h=3]T-3. Michigan State Spartans[/h]Michigan State's offense was decimated by injuries last season, and that resulted in the unit averaging just 342 yards and 18.7 points per game. The Spartans did, however, lead the nation in rush defense (78 rush yards per game), and over the last eight games they allowed just 13.3 points per game. The defense looks even stronger with eight starters back, including defensive end Kenny Willekes (12 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks in 2018) and linebacker Joe Bachie (102 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss in 2018). The Spartans do have to play Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin on the road, so they will need a few upsets to win the East.
[h=3]T-3. Penn State Nittany Lions[/h]Expectations were low in 2016, but Penn State surprised everyone and won the Big Ten title and got to the Rose Bowl. The past couple of years the Nittany Lions have been ranked in the preseason top 10, so they were expected to contend in the East and finished second and third. This year they are just No. 124 on my experience chart, as they lose quarterback Trace McSorley and running back Miles Sanders (1,274 rush yards in 2018). Penn State still has one of the top defenses with six starters back, and now the Nittany Lions are under the radar and could be in store for another surprising year.
[h=3]T-5. Indiana Hoosiers[/h]Tom Allen put a scare into a lot of the big boys in his first two years as head coach, but surprisingly he has not pulled a single upset; all 10 of his wins have come when his team was the favorite. With 14 starters back, this team finally has the depth to win one of those games, and if they pull an upset or two, the Hoosiers finally will surpass that five-win mark they have been stuck on the past two seasons.
[h=3]T-5. Maryland Terrapins[/h]Last year, the Terps were a team in turmoil. They had to deal with a suspended head coach and then the prospect of him almost returning midseason. That is about the time the Terps went from 5-3 to 5-7, which included a loss to Ohio State in which a blown two-point conversion cost them a win. This year, they are just No. 99 on my experience chart. They do bring in quarterback Josh Jackson, who started 16 games at Virginia Tech, and return running back Anthony McFarland, who ran for 1,034 yards as a redshirt freshman. Maryland also has a solid offensive line and some star players on defense and will contend for that bowl game they just missed out on last season.
[h=3]7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights[/h]Head coach Chris Ash won four games in 2017, including three in conference (Illinois, Purdue, Maryland), in his second year despite Rutgers being outgained by 206 yards per game in Big Ten play. Last year was supposed to be a breakthrough season, but after a win in the opener, 11 losses followed. Rutgers did almost beat Northwestern and Michigan State late and improved its yard-per-game differential in Big Ten play to minus-161 yards per contest. Their quarterbacks combined to throw for only five touchdowns and 22 interceptions, and that should improve. The 2019 Scarlet Knights are Ash's best team yet, as 13 starters return, including eight on offense.
[h=2]West[/h]
[h=3]1. Nebraska Cornhuskers[/h]The Huskers were better than their 0-6 record in their first six games would indicate. They averaged just 23.3 points per game during that span but 36.6 points per game over the last six. Nebraska also had five losses by five points or fewer, so they were in quite a few games. This season, they avoid three of the top four teams in the Big Ten East, and the West is wide open. Nebraska also hosts the teams I have pegged for No. 2 and No. 3 in the West. My main set of power ratings has the Huskers at 10-2, and they are my No. 1 most improved team in the country.
[h=3]2. Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]Last year, Iowa opened up 6-1 but then lost three straight games by a total of 12 points (at Penn State, at Purdue and home vs. Northwestern). The Hawkeyes won their final three games and knocked off Mississippi State in their bowl game to finish No. 25 in the AP rankings. The strength of last season's defense was the defensive line, and all four starters are gone, but "backup" defensive lineman A.J. Epenesa had 10.5 sacks. The Hawkeyes return a solid secondary, three starters on the offensive line and a veteran quarterback in Nathan Stanley. They do face Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska on the road, but are very capable of winning this wide-open division.
[h=3]3. Wisconsin Badgers[/h]The Badgers were ranked No. 9 and No. 4 in the preseason the past two seasons, respectively, and came into last year winning the West three out of four years. The Badgers' defense wasn't bad last season (allowing 344 yards and 22.6 points per game) -- it just was not up to the lofty standards from years past (292 yards and 16.6 points per game from 2012 to 2017), and the Badgers finished three games behind Northwestern. Wisconsin is only No. 95 on my experience chart and draws Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State out of the East for the toughest schedule of any Big Ten West team. Despite picking them third, it would not surprise me if the Badgers returned to form and won the division.
[h=3]T-4. Minnesota Golden Gophers[/h]The Gophers beat some teams soundly late in the season (Purdue 41-10, Wisconsin 37-15, and Georgia Tech 34-10 in the bowl game), leading to a much higher year-end power rating than when they opened 1-5 in Big Ten play. Was that a sign of things to come (they started eight freshmen on offense in the bowl), or was it smoke and mirrors that has them rated higher than they should have been in my final rankings? They avoid three of the Big Ten powers, and three of my sets of power ratings call for double-digit wins, while some have them as low as 7-5. As you can tell, the Big Ten West is a tough division to call.
[h=3]T-4. Northwestern Wildcats[/h]Northwestern started 1-3 last year and went 0-4 in nonconference games. After winning their last seven Big Ten games in 2017, they finished 8-1 last season, so the Wildcats are on a 15-1 run in Big Ten play the past two years and clinched a conference title game berth with two weeks to go. This year, defensive end Joe Gaziano (7.5 sacks in 2018) and linebackers Paddy Fisher(116 tackles in 2018) and Blake Gallagher (127 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss in 2018) return, giving them a top-25 defense. Their quarterbacks combined for a 17-16 TD-interception ratio last season, and Hunter Johnson (my top-rated freshman quarterback in 2017) transfers in from Clemson and might be an upgrade. The schedule is tough, but the Wildcats were favored in just five games last season and won nine.
Phil Steele
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The East could come down to Michigan and Ohio State again. Can the Wolverines finally get a win against the Buckeyes? The West, on the other hand, appears wide open. We project where each team in the Big Ten will finish.
[h=2]East[/h]
[h=3]2. Ohio State Buckeyes[/h]
The Buckeyes lose longtime head coach Urban Meyer to retirement and quarterback Dwayne Haskins (4,831 yards, 50 TDs) -- and eight other players -- to the NFL draft. Ohio State rarely looked dominant last season; four wins were by five points or fewer. The schedule also takes a big jump up with the Buckeyes facing the 17th-toughest schedule. The Buckeyes still probably will be favored in every game, with the exception of the season finale at the Big House. However, they have beaten Michigan seven straight years and must still be considered a national title contender.
[h=3]T-3. Michigan State Spartans[/h]Michigan State's offense was decimated by injuries last season, and that resulted in the unit averaging just 342 yards and 18.7 points per game. The Spartans did, however, lead the nation in rush defense (78 rush yards per game), and over the last eight games they allowed just 13.3 points per game. The defense looks even stronger with eight starters back, including defensive end Kenny Willekes (12 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks in 2018) and linebacker Joe Bachie (102 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss in 2018). The Spartans do have to play Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin on the road, so they will need a few upsets to win the East.
[h=3]T-3. Penn State Nittany Lions[/h]Expectations were low in 2016, but Penn State surprised everyone and won the Big Ten title and got to the Rose Bowl. The past couple of years the Nittany Lions have been ranked in the preseason top 10, so they were expected to contend in the East and finished second and third. This year they are just No. 124 on my experience chart, as they lose quarterback Trace McSorley and running back Miles Sanders (1,274 rush yards in 2018). Penn State still has one of the top defenses with six starters back, and now the Nittany Lions are under the radar and could be in store for another surprising year.
[h=3]T-5. Indiana Hoosiers[/h]Tom Allen put a scare into a lot of the big boys in his first two years as head coach, but surprisingly he has not pulled a single upset; all 10 of his wins have come when his team was the favorite. With 14 starters back, this team finally has the depth to win one of those games, and if they pull an upset or two, the Hoosiers finally will surpass that five-win mark they have been stuck on the past two seasons.
[h=3]T-5. Maryland Terrapins[/h]Last year, the Terps were a team in turmoil. They had to deal with a suspended head coach and then the prospect of him almost returning midseason. That is about the time the Terps went from 5-3 to 5-7, which included a loss to Ohio State in which a blown two-point conversion cost them a win. This year, they are just No. 99 on my experience chart. They do bring in quarterback Josh Jackson, who started 16 games at Virginia Tech, and return running back Anthony McFarland, who ran for 1,034 yards as a redshirt freshman. Maryland also has a solid offensive line and some star players on defense and will contend for that bowl game they just missed out on last season.
[h=3]7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights[/h]Head coach Chris Ash won four games in 2017, including three in conference (Illinois, Purdue, Maryland), in his second year despite Rutgers being outgained by 206 yards per game in Big Ten play. Last year was supposed to be a breakthrough season, but after a win in the opener, 11 losses followed. Rutgers did almost beat Northwestern and Michigan State late and improved its yard-per-game differential in Big Ten play to minus-161 yards per contest. Their quarterbacks combined to throw for only five touchdowns and 22 interceptions, and that should improve. The 2019 Scarlet Knights are Ash's best team yet, as 13 starters return, including eight on offense.
[h=2]West[/h]
[h=3]1. Nebraska Cornhuskers[/h]The Huskers were better than their 0-6 record in their first six games would indicate. They averaged just 23.3 points per game during that span but 36.6 points per game over the last six. Nebraska also had five losses by five points or fewer, so they were in quite a few games. This season, they avoid three of the top four teams in the Big Ten East, and the West is wide open. Nebraska also hosts the teams I have pegged for No. 2 and No. 3 in the West. My main set of power ratings has the Huskers at 10-2, and they are my No. 1 most improved team in the country.
[h=3]2. Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]Last year, Iowa opened up 6-1 but then lost three straight games by a total of 12 points (at Penn State, at Purdue and home vs. Northwestern). The Hawkeyes won their final three games and knocked off Mississippi State in their bowl game to finish No. 25 in the AP rankings. The strength of last season's defense was the defensive line, and all four starters are gone, but "backup" defensive lineman A.J. Epenesa had 10.5 sacks. The Hawkeyes return a solid secondary, three starters on the offensive line and a veteran quarterback in Nathan Stanley. They do face Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska on the road, but are very capable of winning this wide-open division.
[h=3]3. Wisconsin Badgers[/h]The Badgers were ranked No. 9 and No. 4 in the preseason the past two seasons, respectively, and came into last year winning the West three out of four years. The Badgers' defense wasn't bad last season (allowing 344 yards and 22.6 points per game) -- it just was not up to the lofty standards from years past (292 yards and 16.6 points per game from 2012 to 2017), and the Badgers finished three games behind Northwestern. Wisconsin is only No. 95 on my experience chart and draws Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State out of the East for the toughest schedule of any Big Ten West team. Despite picking them third, it would not surprise me if the Badgers returned to form and won the division.
[h=3]T-4. Minnesota Golden Gophers[/h]The Gophers beat some teams soundly late in the season (Purdue 41-10, Wisconsin 37-15, and Georgia Tech 34-10 in the bowl game), leading to a much higher year-end power rating than when they opened 1-5 in Big Ten play. Was that a sign of things to come (they started eight freshmen on offense in the bowl), or was it smoke and mirrors that has them rated higher than they should have been in my final rankings? They avoid three of the Big Ten powers, and three of my sets of power ratings call for double-digit wins, while some have them as low as 7-5. As you can tell, the Big Ten West is a tough division to call.
[h=3]T-4. Northwestern Wildcats[/h]Northwestern started 1-3 last year and went 0-4 in nonconference games. After winning their last seven Big Ten games in 2017, they finished 8-1 last season, so the Wildcats are on a 15-1 run in Big Ten play the past two years and clinched a conference title game berth with two weeks to go. This year, defensive end Joe Gaziano (7.5 sacks in 2018) and linebackers Paddy Fisher(116 tackles in 2018) and Blake Gallagher (127 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss in 2018) return, giving them a top-25 defense. Their quarterbacks combined for a 17-16 TD-interception ratio last season, and Hunter Johnson (my top-rated freshman quarterback in 2017) transfers in from Clemson and might be an upgrade. The schedule is tough, but the Wildcats were favored in just five games last season and won nine.
[h=3]T-4. Purdue Boilermakers[/h]
A sign of a good coach is when his team outperforms my power ratings projection each year. While Jeff Brohm's team was just 6-7 last season, they won five Big Ten games, including the 49-20 thrashing of Ohio State, to tie for second in the West. This year, the Boilermakers are dead last in the Big Ten at No. 126 on my experience chart. They need to keep quarterback Elijah Sindelar healthy, but they avoid three of the Big Ten's top four teams on their schedule. My combined power ratings call for a sixth-place finish, but since Brohm exceeds my projections every season, I will peg them fourth for 2019.
[h=2]West[/h]
