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Thread: Everyone’s favorite spread pick week 1 reg season

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  1. #1 Everyone’s favorite spread pick week 1 reg season 
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    What’s everyone favorite spread pick for regular season week 1?
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  2. #2  
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    Panthers +3
    Jaguars +4
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  3. #3  
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    Baltimore -4.5 (5Dimes, Bookmaker) will likely go up before kickoff
    "There's no traffic on the extra mile." (Old Coach)
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    Quote Originally Posted by cloverleaf View Post
    Baltimore -4.5 (5Dimes, Bookmaker) will likely go up before kickoff
    I dont know if i'd want to give more than a field goal if you're NOT a team from the south playing a 1pm game in Miami while wearing dark uniforms. Those teams have a tendency to wear out in the 2nd half
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knightrofins View Post
    I dont know if i'd want to give more than a field goal if you're NOT a team from the south playing a 1pm game in Miami while wearing dark uniforms. Those teams have a tendency to wear out in the 2nd half
    Agree.
    Definitley a VERY good point.
    No matter how much you hydrate, prepare, your body cannot change that quickly. Electrolyte balance goes out of wack.
    But this game there might not be enough of a temperature difference, since it is so early in the season.
    It is more of an issue after a month or so, though, when a northern team comes in from, say, 40 degree temps and it is still in the high 80's in Florida.
    Also look at second half bets... when the northern teams wilt. Or in game, wait for the 4th quarter.
    GL!
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  6. #6  
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    I really like Detroit at Arizona. Detroit added a lot this offseason.. VS a rookie qb and head coach. Detroit should win by 2 scores.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Bojangles View Post
    I really like Detroit at Arizona. Detroit added a lot this offseason.. VS a rookie qb and head coach. Detroit should win by 2 scores.
    I was listening to something over the weekend which talked about Detroit's STRONG D-line vs Arizona's WEAK O-line
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    Agree.
    Definitley a VERY good point.
    No matter how much you hydrate, prepare, your body cannot change that quickly. Electrolyte balance goes out of wack.
    But this game there might not be enough of a temperature difference, since it is so early in the season.
    It is more of an issue after a month or so, though, when a northern team comes in from, say, 40 degree temps and it is still in the high 80's in Florida.
    Also look at second half bets... when the northern teams wilt. Or in game, wait for the 4th quarter.
    GL!
    I was at the raiders (week 3) and bears game (week 6) in miami.

    Both teams had halftime leads and totally whiffed in that second half (i remember posting on this site the day of the raiders game how this game was going to go and hit the nail on the head).

    At dolphins home games, the fins wear white shirts, stand on the "shady side" on the field, and are covered a little.
    The visitors wear dark jerseys, stand on the "hot side" of the field, and are NOT covered.

    People make fun of nobody going to fins games when u see a lot of empty seats on tv. The truth is, that is the visitor side where its hot as hell and its a pain to sit in that sun for 3 straight hours

    Again, baltimore could blow em out for all we know. All i'm saying is be careful when laying more than a FG when betting against the dolphins at home
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    Eagles, titans and panthers
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  10. #10  
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    Quote Originally Posted by cloverleaf View Post
    Baltimore -4.5 (5Dimes, Bookmaker) will likely go up before kickoff
    Rule of thumb is to always consider teams cross country travel and early season north to south games. I wonder
    if the linemakers know that? Naw, they don't have a clue.
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    Cleveland (-5.5) Tenn is missing OL Taylor Lewan and Miles Garrett should feast on Mariiota & RB Derick Henry isnt 100%.New Sheriff in town with Baker Mayfield
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  12. #12  
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    Patriots

    They cover 60% of the time
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie99 View Post
    Patriots

    They cover 60% of the time
    So should Tom Brady's nickname be "sex panther"???

    Do they cover better than 60% in september as well? Seems like that month is an extended pre season and they're 100% fine coming out 2-2
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    Absolutely loving the bills!
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    Atlanta, Tampa bay, and Houston.
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  16. #16  
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    Division dogs are 31-11 in week 1 of the season, since I started tracking in 2011..This year that's Green Bay, Buffalo, Denver, Washington, NYG
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    Ill take the New York football Giants. Division game, and possibility of Zeke not playing. +7.5 seems like a winner.
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    Ill throw in the O 37 in the Ravens/Dolphins too. Especially if its a Fitzmagic led Dolphins squad.
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  19. #19  
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    Quote Originally Posted by powerz View Post
    Division dogs are 31-11 in week 1 of the season, since I started tracking in 2011..This year that's Green Bay, Buffalo, Denver, Washington, NYG
    Good info Powerz.

    Any other strong stats on NFL DOGS? Thanks Bud.
    "There's no traffic on the extra mile." (Old Coach)
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  20. #20  
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    sf +1 Better team and TB maybe down 2 DL starters. sf added Dee Ford and Nick Bosa & one of better DLs in the league.

    NYJ -3 buf has some OL injuries. Lots of new faces there too and at WR. Need more time to gel. NYJ edge in most areas vs opposing unit.
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  21. #21  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knightrofins View Post
    I was at the raiders (week 3) and bears game (week 6) in miami.

    Both teams had halftime leads and totally whiffed in that second half (i remember posting on this site the day of the raiders game how this game was going to go and hit the nail on the head).

    At dolphins home games, the fins wear white shirts, stand on the "shady side" on the field, and are covered a little.
    The visitors wear dark jerseys, stand on the "hot side" of the field, and are NOT covered.

    People make fun of nobody going to fins games when u see a lot of empty seats on tv. The truth is, that is the visitor side where its hot as hell and its a pain to sit in that sun for 3 straight hours

    Again, baltimore could blow em out for all we know. All i'm saying is be careful when laying more than a FG when betting against the dolphins at home
    YEP!

    I am not a regular poster but I have posted games in these situations, I even look at the temp of the northern team where they practiced till Friday or so. There have been games when the northern team has been in their home town for 2-3 weeks at 40 degrees and play in the high 80's in Miami, the body cannot adjust. I bet proportionately to the temp difference, especially if it is also sunny as you point out.

    Good stuff.

    GL!
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  22. #22  
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    Quote Originally Posted by powerz View Post
    Division dogs are 31-11 in week 1 of the season, since I started tracking in 2011..This year that's Green Bay, Buffalo, Denver, Washington, NYG
    Thats a nice trend right there. Have you tried tightening the trend like what if the spread is 4 or more or something like that?
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  23. #23  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knightrofins View Post

    People make fun of nobody going to fins games when u see a lot of empty seats on tv. The truth is, that is the visitor side where its hot as hell and its a pain to sit in that sun for 3 straight hours
    Same thing at Levi's. I don't go there, but my friends that are SF fans say it's an absolute oven on one side of the stands. Absolutely brutal
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  24. #24  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Knightrofins View Post
    Thats a nice trend right there. Have you tried tightening the trend like what if the spread is 4 or more or something like that?
    Knight ...That is my own tracking on paper I cant run Sqlr or what ever they call it - sorry old school guy here
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  25. #25  
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    Titans +5.5. Cleveland might have a good season but they are over-valued here.
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