Projecting the final Pac-12 standings

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[h=1]Projecting the final Pac-12 standings[/h]
Phil Steeler
ESPN INSIDER ($ MATERIAL)



Oregon and Washington have their sights set on a Pac-12 North division title, and Utah appears to be the class of the South. But the Utes might have a chance for much bigger things. We project how the conference will play out.

[h=2]Pac-12 North[/h]
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[h=3]1. Oregon Ducks[/h]The Ducks are 11-16 in Pac-12 play the past three seasons and only 4-12 in Pac-12 road games in that span. They have to face Auburn, Stanford, Washington and USC away from home this season. This is one time when my forecast is not influenced by the schedule, as Oregon is the most talented team in the North, with the nation's top offensive line (153 career starts return). Quarterback Justin Herbert (3,151 yards, 19-8 TD-interception ratio in 2018) turned down the NFL draft and is one of 10 returning starters on offense. A superb recruiting class, including my top-rated defensive lineman, Kayvon Thibodeaux and a few transfers will help the Ducks' defense.

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[h=3]2. Washington Huskies[/h]
My main set of power ratings has the Huskies winning the North, and they have the schedule to get there. Washington has five Pac-12 home games against most of its main contenders and on the road faces only one Pac-12 team that had a winning record last season (Stanford). The Huskies are 14-1 in Pac-12 home games dating to 2015. Their defense has only two returning starters, but Washington will be improved offensively with Georgia transfer quarterback Jacob Eason taking over. I will go against my normal equations and peg the Huskies to finish second.



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[h=3]3. Stanford Cardinal[/h]David Shaw is doing an excellent job at Stanford and continues to bring in talented recruiting classes. Last year, there were big expectations for running back Bryce Love, but in an injury-plagued season, he rushed for only 739 yards (2,118 rushing yards in 2017). There will be more spread on offense this season, and K.J. Costello, who had 3,540 yards passing, 29 TDs and 11 interceptions in 2018, is one of the league's best quarterbacks. Stanford is tough to face at home, and the Cardinal host both Oregon and Washington, making them definite contenders in the North, despite being No. 114 on my experience chart.


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[h=3]4. Washington State Cougars[/h]Last year, Washington State lost veteran quarterback Luke Falk (14,481 career passing yards) and was No. 122 on my experience chart and picked fifth by the Pac-12 media, but the Cougars brought in transfer quarterback Gardner Minshew, who threw for 4,779 yards and 38 TDs, and finished 11-2 and No. 10 in the rankings. They bring in an even more decorated transfer quarterback this year in Gage Gubrud (two-time FCS player of the year finalist) and move up to No. 102 on my experience chart. They had just one Pac-12 road game against a bowl team and this year have potentially five, so that has me thinking the Cougars will not match last season's 11 wins, despite Mike Leach's proving us media types wrong before.




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[h=3]5. California Golden Bears[/h]It is tough to put a team with the nation's best secondary (13-21 TD-interception ratio allowed in 2018) and perhaps the Pac-12's best defense (317 yards and 20.4 points allowed per game in 2018) this low in the standings. I do expect them to be stronger on offense this season, as they averaged 344 yards per game in 2018, but they have not had a winning record in the Pac-12 this decade. Cal has five road games in conference play this season, and the four teams at the top of the North are all quite talented.
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[h=3]6. Oregon State Beavers[/h]Last year, when I talked to head coach Jonathan Smith, this was a very inexperienced team that had little depth. This year's conversation went much better, as the Beavers have depth at most spots and are improved in all three facets of the game. Oregon State was outgained by 178 yards per game in Pac-12 play last season, and this year the Beavers draw the toughest schedule inside the conference. I don't have them challenging for the North title, but they will be much more competitive, with seven starters back on offense and 11 of their top 12 tacklers returning on defense.

[h=2]Pac-12 South[/h]
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[h=3]1. Utah Utes[/h]Last year, the Utes faced the toughest Pac-12 schedule, opened 0-2 in Pac-12 play and lost their starting quarterback and running back after nine games. Utah still made it to the Pac-12 title game and took Washington to the wire. This year, the Utes move to No. 48 on my experience chart, and the schedule gets a lot more manageable, with five Pac-12 home games. Utah also gets its injured stars back, and two of my nine sets of power ratings are calling for a 12-0 season. In my eyes, Utah will have its best offense in 10 years, and it has the best defense in the Pac-12, as the team returns seven starters from a unit that allowed just 316 yards and 19.4 points per game.
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[h=3]2. USC Trojans[/h]USC suffered its first losing season since 2000 last year (5-7), and this year, the Trojans take on my No. 3-rated schedule, having to face Fresno State, Notre Dame and BYU for their three nonconference games. USC will also face the top three teams out of the North, but it gets two of those games at home. Head coach Clay Helton won his first 16 home games but dropped the past three and needs to get that corrected, as USC plays most of its toughest foes at home. The Trojans' new "Air Raid" offense will be potent behind JT Daniels and a talented set of NFL-caliber wide receivers.

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[h=3]3. Arizona State Sun Devils[/h]My power ratings have Arizona State, UCLA and Arizona ranked within a point of one another. Arizona has the best quarterback among the three, and UCLA has the most returning starters. Arizona State has plenty of talent back, as running back Eno Benjamin (1,642 rushing yards, 16 TDs in 2018) and leading tackler Merlin Robertson are both back. The Sun Devils have five Pac-12 home games (they avoid Washington and Stanford out of the North), and the other two have just four. Arizona State was picked sixth by the media last year, but Herm Edwards had the Sun Devils contending for the South title and could do so again this year.




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[h=3]T-4. UCLA Bruins[/h]When last season ended, I noted that UCLA went from 312 yards per game of offense the first four games to 432 yards per game in their last eight. The Bruins are much stronger in Chip Kelly's second year and adjusted to the scheme changes but still face my No. 8-toughest schedule, with five Pac-12 road games and a challenging nonconference slate. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the perfect quarterback for Kelly's offense, and the top three rushers, as well as four offensive line starters, return. As for the defense, the Bruins return 10 starters and 13 of their top 15 tacklers. With 19 starters back overall, I expect some improvement.
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[h=3]T-4. Arizona Wildcats[/h]Last year, the Wildcats were picked high in the West and had a Heisman front-runner in quarterback Khalil Tate. Tate was never 100% healthy, and they limited his runs because of the injuries. Tate had 202 rush yards per game in his first six games of 2017 but just 20 rush yards per game in 2018. Arizona had four losses by five points or fewer and blew a 40-21 fourth-quarter lead against Arizona State in the season finale that likely cost it a bowl berth. The Wildcats play a tough conference schedule this season, but the nonconference slate is manageable, giving them an opportunity for bowl eligibility.
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[h=3]6. Colorado Buffaloes[/h]Mel Tucker takes over a team that had 10 chances to obtain a sixth win the past two years and lost all 10 games. Wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr.(1,011 receiving yards in 2018) missed three games with injury during the Buffaloes' 5-0 start last season, and they never recovered. This year, Colorado is No. 87 on my experience chart. The Buffaloes get Shenault back and would seem to be a no-brainer to make a bowl after two straight 5-7 seasons. While Mike MacIntyre left the team in much better shape than what he inherited, Tucker faces the fifth-toughest schedule this season.
 

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