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Thread: Tuesday Service Play Thread 8/13/2019

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  1. #1 Tuesday Service Play Thread 8/13/2019 
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  2. #2  
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    Larry Hartstein


    CHI. CUBS -130


    CHI. CUBS @ PHILADELPHIA | 8/13 | 7:05 PM EDT
    12:36 AM
    Jose Quintana has put together two outstanding starts and the Cubs have won his last seven starts. I like that to continue Tuesday in Philadelphia against Jason Vargas. The Cubs are in much better form overall than the Phillies, and it's time for Chicago to start amassing some road wins. Lay the reasonable price.

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  3. #3  
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    Stephen Oh


    OAKLAND +108


    OAKLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO | 8/13 | 9:45 PM EDT
    YESTERDAY 9:08 PM
    My projections see major value Tuesday on Oakland as a slight underdog against San Francisco in this interleague battle of Bay Area clubs vying for wild-card position. I've got the A's winning this matchup in 63 percent of simulations. Oakland has won seven consecutive road starts by Brett Anderson and is on a 4-1 run in this rivalry. The Giants are 1-5 in the last six interleague starts by Madison Bumgarner.

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    24-14 IN LAST 38 OAK ML PICKS | +941

    5-0 IN LAST 5 SF ML PICKS | +605


    KANSAS CITY +169


    ST. LOUIS @ KANSAS CITY | 8/13 | 8:15 PM EDT
    YESTERDAY 8:59 PM
    My numbers see the Royals getting major value Tuesday as they are winning their matchup with the Cardinals nearly half the time but fetching a major overlay with the home underdog price. I've got Kansas City winning in 48 percent of simulations. The slumping Cardinals have lost five consecutive road games and also have dropped four straight interleague contests.

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    37-17 IN LAST 54 KC ML PICKS | +2392

    24-13 IN LAST 37 STL ML PICKS | +1221


    WASHINGTON -109


    CINCINNATI @ WASHINGTON | 8/13 | 7:05 PM EDT
    YESTERDAY 8:46 PM
    My projections see the surging Nationals beating the Reds in nearly two-thirds of simulations Tuesday, providing a major value spot against the relatively flat price. I've got Washington winning this matchup in 65 percent of simulations. The Nationals are 4-1 in home starts by Joe Ross against opponents with losing records and 16-7 overall in his past 23 home outings.

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  4. #4  
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    +EV: MLB 4u: 915 Boston Red Sox +103 (C Sale | M Clevinger) (Tuesday, August 13th)

    +EV: MLB 4u: 902 Washington Nationals -107 (A Wood | J Ross) (Tuesday, August 13th)
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  5. #5  
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    Paul Leiner

    Three MLB picks 8/13

    100* Rangers -140
    100* Giants -115
    100* Over 10 Yanks/Orioles
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  6. #6  
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    BEN BURNS
    2* Detroit -158

    3* SAN DIEGO +1.5(-145)

    2* Colorado -125
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  7. #7  
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    STEPHEN NOVER

    1* Atlanta -125

    2* Colorado -124

    2* Seattle +146
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  8. #8  
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    DAVE ESSLER

    3*TOM

    Detroit / Seattle over 9
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  9. #9  
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    KING CREOLE
    2* Baltimore / New York Yankees over 10.5
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  10. #10  
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    JR ODONNELL
    3* Chicago whitesox +1.5(+170)
    3* Detroit -158
    3* Baltimore / New York Yankees over 10.5
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  11. #11  
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    Dwayne Bryant

    4% Twins-Brewers under 10 -120
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  12. #12  
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    ROB VENO


    Game: (923) St. Louis Cardinals at (924) Kansas City Royals
    Date/Time: Aug 13 2019 8:15 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Heritage
    Play Rating: 5%
    Play: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-143)

    View Analysis

    Going to ride the ultra-hot Jack Flaherty train here in Tuesday's series opener vs. Kansas City. Over his five starts since the All-Star Break, Flaherty has posted sensational numbers throwing a total of 31 1/3 innings while allowing just 26 total baserunners and 3 ER. Even more amazing is the fact that Flaherty's five game stretch with a 0.83 ERA and 0.86 WHIP has included starts against the L.A. Dodgers (#3), Chicago Cubs (#6), Houston (#4) & Pittsburgh (#10) who all rank in MLB's Top 10 OPS offenses against RH pitching. While Flaherty is blazing a trail to the staff ace status that St. Louis and many other baseball insiders felt he possessed, his counterpart tonight Glenn Sparkmann has been leaking water for quite some time. Over his last eight starts the righty has been abysmal with the exception of a stray complete game shutout of the White Sox. Even including that performance, Sparkmann's L8 starts result in this pitching line: 43 1/3 IP / 61 H / 39 ER / 15 BB & 29 K (less than 2-1 K:BB ratio) / 133 Total Bases Allowed (3.07 per inning) / 8.10 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Seven of his game whips during this current nose dive are 1.59 or higher with six being 1.83 or above while none of his ERA's in those games is below 6.00. The Cardinals are in "sense of urgency" mode right now and they came alive over the weekend at home sweeping the Pirates beginning a 22 game schedule to end August that gives them the opportunity to catapult in the standings. Play here is on Flaherty to stifle the Kansas City offense which is 24th in MLB OPS rankings while the Cardinals bats do enough damage to win by 2+ runs. Selection: St. Louis -1.5 -1.43
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  13. #13  
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    Tony Finn

    5% Big Ticket Event

    Arizona Diamondbacks +117 (good to -110)


    LIST PITCHERS: Gallen and Gray

    (909) Arizona Diamondbacks at (910) Colorado Rockies

    The pair of starting pitchers at Coors Field on Monday night is not going to win Cy Young awards in their careers. They are not going to be considered the ace at any time in however long they don a Big Boy uniform. They won't make an All-Star team unless one of the two executes a career year in the first half of the regular season and are selected by the skipper representing the AL or NL.

    Merrill Kelly (8-12) allowed four of his six runs in the first inning before Arizona could take a deep breath of Rocky Mountain air. However, four runs at Coors Field is a lead that isn't safe for a team that is playing with confidence, yet one that is playing like they know they are going to lose.

    Merrill earned his first victory since mid-June and the Diamondbacks climbed a single game above the .500 mark at 60-59. Arizona heads into Tuesday night's contest 2.5 games out of the second wild-card spot with 43 games remaining in regular-season play.

    It was the Diamondbacks' 27th comeback win of the season.

    As confident and free-spirited as Arizona is playing Colorado is the contrary. After the game, All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado said: "the mood in the clubhouse is one of complete frustration." The Roks just returned home after a 1-5 road trip in which they were embarrassed in Houston where they were outscored 25-9 in the pair of losses to the Astros. Colorado followed the interleague series against Houston losing three of four at Petco Park to the San Diego Padres.

    There is a number of variables that have the home town Rockies as the favorite for Tuesday's game. First, the team is at home with a pitcher that has been successful this season pitching in the thin air of the Rocky Mountains and keeping the ball in the ballpark at Coors Field.

    it is home two veteran starter Jon Gray against visiting rookie Zac Gallen. Standing alone the two reasons I outlined in the first sentence of this paragraph is enough to make Gray the chalk on the Coors mound.

    Arizona righty Zac Gallen (2-3, 2.40 ERA) has a serious advantage the first two times through the Rockies lineup. It is the first time any of the Colorado players will have seen or faced Gallen. against Colorado on Tuesday.

    And while the Rockies will have Jon Gray (10-8, 4.06) on the mound to start the game his 5-2 mark with a 3.88 ERA at home this season comes with a number of buts....

    The Diamondbacks are set up for success tonight. Especially after falling behind by four runs before there were two outs in the bottom of the first inning. Gallen squares off against a Colorado lineup is neither confident nor in positive form at the plate.

    I backed Gallen in his Arizona debut versus Philadelphia last week. And in my write up of the Zona vs Philly game, I noted that "It was a surprise in my orbit that the Marlins decided to give up a rotation arm for a position player. Especially one that is just bottle of 5 minute Energy above average with the bat and less-than as a defender"

    I compared Gallen to another young gun who is having a career year. A right-hander that is essentially the ace of the Cleveland Indians staff, Shane Beiber. I then compared Gallen's over-the-top slider to that of Vince Velasquez. Gallen's fastball is nearly equal to that of Beiber's. The command that Bieber has with both his two and four-seamer is trumped by the movement inside of the K-Zone that the Indians Beiber has. And Gallen's slider, his second-best, and plus-pitch is equal to that of Phillies Velasquez... with one exception... this being that Gallen can actually command the pitch.

    Gallen has a notch or two move velocity of Beiber. And again, Gallen's slider is Vincent Velaquez' with pinpoint command. And with that said the fastball and slider are just two of Gallen's plus pitches.

    Much has been made about Gallen’s cut fastball, but his changeup is getting close to surpassing the fastball's plus-grade. The situation for the Rockies and Gray is everything but perfect. Gray's inconsistencies this season have shadowed what he has done well from the Coors mound.

    Gallen is making his second career start for Arizona, having made his debut Diamondbacks debut Aug. 7 against Philadelphia, tossing five scoreless innings.

    Gray has allowed as many as seven runs in a single appearance this season. In that game, Gray walked two and struck out just four in just north of five frames.

    In Gray's five career starts against the D-backs at Coors Field, he’s 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA. He has struck out 18 but also walked 10.

    Gray has seen his underlying peripherals suffer as of late. Furthermore, the numbers have been screaming regression for some time. The Rockies right-hander continues to scuffle with his command (3.60 BB/9) and his 1.39 WHIP is another sign that an implosion is inevitable. Gray has an unsustainable BABIP of under .275 and his near 80 percent strand rate (77.7% LOB%) has benefited him this season. Grey's BABIP is nearly 20 points lower than his career average and his strand rate is approaching 10 percent lower than his career numbers.

    Gray experienced a bump in velocity this spring. But with that has come an increase in bases on balls.

    Make no mistake the Rockies Gray is an enigma. One minute he can appear to be in ace form and the next look worthy of Triple-A ball.

    The scheduled home plate umpire for Tuesday night's NL West matchup in Arizona is veteran ump CB Bucknor. Bucknor is wildly inconsistent with his strike zone which can only hurt Gray and his need to have a wide strike zone.

    The Roks have beaten up on less-than foes this season. When facing a capable lineup and quality arm Colorado is well below the .500 mark. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 games when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15.
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  14. #14  
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    Scott Ferrell
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  15. #15  
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    Miller locks

    7:05 pm est mlb
    baltimore orioles vs. New york yankees

    pick: New york yankees -1.5 (-159)

    risk: 11 units

    7:05 pm est mlb
    baltimore orioles vs. New york yankees

    pick: Over 10 (-107)

    risk: 11 units

    7:20 pm est mlb
    new york mets vs. Atlanta braves

    pick: New york mets (+122)

    risk: 11 units

    9:45 pm est mlb
    oakland athletics vs. San francisco giants

    pick: Oakland athletics (+104)

    risk: 11 units

    10:07 pm est mlb
    pittsburgh pirates vs. Laa angels

    pick: Laa angels (-164)

    risk: 11 units
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  16. #16  
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    Colorado pitching change. Jon Gray has been scratched from Tuesday's start and Jeff Hoffman is now expected to start
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  17. #17  
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    GOODFELLA
    3* St.louis -1.5(-145)
    1* Detroit / Seattle over 8.5
    1* Chicago Cubs -130
    1* Boston -105
    1* Tampa -120
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  18. #18  
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    SLEEPYJ

    3*TOW

    LA ANGLES / Pittsburgh over 9.5
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  19. #19  
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    GB Monster Sports 28-14 on top rated plays - 4th max play winner in a row coming later I am told ...
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  20. #20  
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    Dodgers Pitching Change May for Kershaw Adj Price : Dodgers - 200
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  21. #21  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigboy19 View Post
    GB Monster Sports 28-14 on top rated plays - 4th max play winner in a row coming later I am told ...
    thanks
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    Toronto pitching change. Blue Jays P Thomas Pannone has been scratched from Tuesday's start. Wilmer Font is now expected to start
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  23. #23  
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    MLB(Bob Balfe)
    7:10 PM
    Rotation # 915-916
    Indians -115 over Red Sox
    Clevinger/Sale
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  24. #24  
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    if none of the previous poster from basewinner post his picks i will do it:


    0,5* Philadelphia 111+
    0,5* LAD/MIA u8
    0,5* Boston 101+
    0,5* Colorado -115 - because of the pitcher change no play!
    0,5* Detroit -148
    0,33* Miami 230+
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  25. #25  
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    Seabass : WNBA 300 Las Vegas , 400 Las Vegas game under , 400 liberty game over , MLB 600 Indians , 600 Indians game under , 400 cardinals RL, 500 athletics , 400 athletics game over , 300 rangers RL
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