[h=1]Top 25 college football futures bets[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The 2019-20 college football is almost here and there are plenty of bets available to make right now.
I've revealed them briefly on Daily Wager (Monday-Friday, ESPNEWS) over the past few weeks, but here they are in written form, along with several reasons why I bet them.
These are my top 25 favorite CFB futures bets heading into the season.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Aug. 14, unless otherwise noted.
[h=2]25. Georgia Bulldogs to win the SEC (+275)[/h]At Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Win projection: 10.88
Kirby Smart's squad is stacked with elite talent. They are my No. 3-rated team going into the season, and there is a pretty big gap between them and the next two (LSU and Oklahoma). We know the Bulldogs can stand toe-to-toe with Alabama, given their matchups the past two seasons in which they've trailed for a combined one minute and four seconds.
This ultimately comes down to a comparison between the current and potential price in an SEC title game. In a worst-case scenario -- matching up against Alabama -- I only project Georgia to be a 4.5-point underdog, which is roughly a price of +170 on the money line. That makes having a +275 ticket in our back pocket extremely valuable at that point. There's an outside chance that UGA doesn't win the East division, but there's also a chance that Alabama isn't representing the West -- which presents more upside to a Bulldogs ticket (since they would be a favorite over any other team).
The swing game could be Florida, but I project Georgia to be a nine-point favorite and win the game 75 percent of the time. Of the 25 percent of the time they lose to the Gators, nearly 16 percent the Bulldogs still win the East anyway (more on Florida later).
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[h=2]24. Georgia RB D'Andre Swift to win the Heisman (40-1)[/h]Swift split carries with Elijah Holyfield (now in the NFL) last season and battled a groin injury, but still rushed for 1,049 yards and 10 touchdowns. Georgia's top five receiving options from a year ago are no longer on the team, and I anticipate Swift to be utilized in the passing game this season much more. Georgia began this process the final two games of last season (Alabama, Texas), when Swift hauled in 11 catches for 93 yards and two TDs.
When looking for a Heisman candidate who offers up value, we want to find someone from a team that is likely to finish the season with double-digit wins (and a shot at the College Football Playoff as a bonus). There have been exceptions (Lamar Jackson and Tim Tebow), but this is generally a good rule of thumb. The Bulldogs should be a double-digit-win squad this season and a contender down the stretch. To have that team's likely Heisman candidate at 40-1 is too good of a price to pass up.
[h=2]23. Boston College Eagles under 6 wins (+100)[/h]At FanDuel
Win projection: 5.52
Head coach Steve Addazio made a few awkward adjustments to the defensive coaching staff after failing to reach its full potential in the last couple of seasons. Linebackers coach Bill Sheridan is taking over the playcalling duties, and former defensive coordinator Jim Reid has been demoted to defensive ends coach. So the old defensive coordinator is still on the team, and Sheridan is getting his shot. Sheridan isn't set up to succeed, though, with the loss of eight starters from a talent-packed unit.
Quarterback Anthony Brown and running back AJ Dillon are two names from the offense that people will recognize, but the Eagles lost four starters from the offensive line and need to redevelop a similar rushing attack that worked in recent years. My projection comes in at 5.52 wins with a brutal close to their schedule (projected underdogs of at least a touchdown in their final five games, and pick 'em in the three prior). There's certainly more downside with this team with a potential injury to Brown or Dillon (both have missed games in the last two seasons) than there is upside at this point in a rebuilding year. I took the under 6.5 wins and I'd also recommend it at under 6 wins plus-money.
[h=2]22. Nebraska Cornhuskers under 8.5 wins (+110)[/h]
Win projection: 7.14
The Cornhuskers' under is quite an edge based on the discrepancy between my projections and the current market. It's not surprising that everyone loves the prospects of Scott Frost in Year 2 at Nebraska and has bet this win total up all summer. We may even see a nine wins pop in the market eventually. I respect what Frost did at UCF and even bet the Knights at 25-1 to win the AAC that year. The high-variance approach is generally a good one to take in these instances (I even bet Nebraska to win the Big Ten at 17-1 earlier this summer), but a play on the over isn't embracing that variance correctly, and this isn't the AAC. The Big Ten is the second-best conference in football.
The Frost and Adrian Martinez upside is enough to keep this play from being higher on my list, but if it gets to a reasonably juiced nine wins (I haven't actually bet this one yet, since it has just been trickling up all summer), then this will be one of my biggest futures bets of the season. If it ultimately stays put at 8.5 plus-money, it's still an edge worth grabbing under. Nebraska's Pythagorean expected wins and regression metrics from last season point to an improvement, but I don't think it's going to be as significant as the market expects.
[h=2]21. Texas Tech Red Raiders over 6 wins (-134)[/h]Win projection: 7.03
I'm fairly intrigued by this Red Raiders squad in a Big 12 conference that is wide open outside of Norman, Oklahoma. Texas Tech was 5-7 last season but dropped its final five games and lost three of them by a single possession. In fact, the Red Raiders' Pythagorean wins expectation was a full two games higher at 7-5.
I understand why people expect a drop-off with Kliff Kingsbury's departure, but his football teams didn't play defense. Texas Tech's best defense under Kingsbury came in 2018 and it ranked outside the top 80 in defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders return the majority of that personnel this year for a defensive-minded coach in Matt Wells coming over from Utah State. People may argue that their offense is going to take a major hit regardless, but offensive coordinator David Yost has experience as an assistant at Washington State under Mike Leach and already incorporates concepts from the Air Raid scheme. That offense in Logan last season, by the way, ranked eighth in the country in efficiency.
With my projection for Texas Tech at 7.03 wins and five or fewer wins all that will beat us here, it's worth a bet on the over six wins.
The Red Raiders have three very likely wins on their schedule and a likely loss to Oklahoma. They only need to go 3-5 in the remaining eight games to avoid losing this bet, and I have them going 4-4 in those more often than any other result.
[h=2]20. LSU Tigers over 9 wins (-125)[/h]Win projection: 9.57
The Tigers made my favorite hire in the offseason bringing in Joe Brady from the New Orleans Saints to serve as their passing game coordinator. Brady looks to implement pieces of the Saints' dynamic passing game along with run-pass option (RPO) components to an offense that has been as straightforward and "pro-style" as can be in recent years. The best part about this setup is that Joe Burrow, who transferred to LSU last year from Ohio State, was recruited by Urban Meyer to run a spread RPO offense. It's what Burrow ran for four years in high school.
LSU was going to be elite on offense this season, but there is a ton of upside that I haven't even accounted for in my projections. Bringing back the majority of the playmakers on both sides of the ball following a New Year's Six bowl win last season bodes well, and the Tigers always recruit at a high level in Baton Rouge. The only reason my win projection is 9.57 is that the Tigers' schedule is going to be one of the toughest in the nation. I do think that they get Texas at the right time in Week 2, as the Longhorns are trying to address replacing nine members of their defense, but trips to Alabama and Mississippi State to go along with home matchups against Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M will test this LSU squad relentlessly.
I believe the Tigers will finish the regular season 9-3 a decent portion of the time, so the 8.5s in the market in the -150 price range are a worthwhile wager as well (I actually prefer it in this case). Either way, both numbers offer value to the over. If I'm getting a chance to fade 8-4 or worse on the team I rate the fourth best in the country entering the season -- despite the difficult schedule -- I'm going to take it.
[h=2]19. Florida Gators under 9 wins (-155)[/h]Win projection: 8.41
This is a numbers and scheduling play for me. As you can tell at this point, I'm bullish on Georgia and LSU out of the SEC. Florida has to travel to Baton Rouge to face the Tigers and meet the Bulldogs on a neutral field. I project the Gators to be eight- and nine-point underdogs in these games, respectively. Of their other matchups in the conference, they host Auburn and have to face South Carolina and Missouri on the road. This doesn't even account for two inner-state rivalry games, against Miami and Florida State, to open and close the season.
I believe Florida will have to win all 10 of those games to beat us here. The Gators aren't on the level of LSU or Georgia, and they don't get the benefit of facing either team at The Swamp. I understand the hype after a 9-3 regular season in 2018 and a bowl win over Michigan, but nine wins is likely the ceiling for this squad.
[h=2]18. Wisconsin Badgers over 8 wins (-135)[/h]Win projection: 8.94
I understand the hype with a few of the teams in the Big Ten West this season, like Nebraska, Minnesota and Purdue. The division has improved as a whole and Iowa is always going to be a strong squad, but let's not pretend like Wisconsin hasn't been the face of the division for the last decade. The last time the Badgers failed to win eight games was 2008, and last year was the only time they needed a bowl game to reach that number. It was the first time Wisconsin didn't win double-digit games under Paul Chryst.
My projections account for the strength of the Badgers' schedule and the other teams in their division and conference, and I still have them winning nine games more often than any other result. RB Jonathan Taylor is a deserving Heisman candidate, and Wisconsin moving on from QB Alex Hornibrook is addition by subtraction. This is still the best team in the West, and I'm willing to bet the Badgers win at least eight contests in 2019.
[h=2]17. Oklahoma State Cowboys over 7 wins (-140)[/h]Win projection: 8.22
I currently rate the Cowboys as the second-best team in the Big 12 behind the Sooners. Iowa State and Texas aren't too far behind, but I expect big things out of Stillwater in 2019. Oklahoma State finished last season 7-6 after dropping three road games (Baylor, Oklahoma and TCU) by a single possession in November. The Pythagorean expected wins based on overall production was actually a record of 8-5.
While I think seven wins again is closer to the Cowboys' floor, much of the upside will hinge on highly touted freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders. His dual-threat ability helped foster a 46-6 record in high school. Oklahoma State has an abundance of proven playmakers, and if Sanders doesn't immediately look the part, then former Hawaii starting quarterback and transfer Dru Brown can step in.
As far as the numbers are concerned, I project the Cowboys to be double-digit favorites in five of their games and smaller favorites in four more. A home game against the Sooners is their least likely shot at a victory, although last year in Norman they lost 48-47 after going for a two-point conversion in the final minute of the game. The schedule is favorable enough that I even considered Oklahoma State at 300-1 to win the national championship for a couple of minutes this summer (I ultimately passed, but 20-1 to win the Big 12 is intriguing). I'd be shocked if Mike Gundy's squad finished .500 or worse with this setup, so I grabbed the over seven wins.
[h=2]16. Wisconsin Badgers to win the Big Ten (16-1)[/h]At Westgate
This price is lower at Caesars, but 16-1 is available at other books. The Cornhuskers and Scott Frost in Year 2 are all the preseason rage, but to put this 15-1 into perspective, Nebraska is only 7-1 to win the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers do have an easier schedule than the Badgers, but even Iowa is listed at 15-1 and Wisconsin gets the Hawkeyes at home (projected 7.5-point favorite). Any time I can get the best team in a division at 15-1 to win the conference, I'm going to look into it.
In the case the Badgers reach the championship game, the biggest spread I currently project would be against the Michigan Wolverines. As roughly a 6.5-point underdog in the title game, my true line for Wisconsin to win the game would be +212 -- and we'd be holding +1500. This is plenty of potential value to buy low on the Badgers and snag some 15-1 to go along with our bet on the over eight wins.
[h=2]15. Houston Cougars under 7 wins (+135)[/h]Win projection: 6.07
Speaking of buying low, we also want to be looking for advantageous spots in the betting markets where we can sell high. I don't think the perception gets much higher for this Houston program than signing head coach Dana Holgorsen following a season in which quarterback D'Eriq King led FBS with 50 touchdowns. While that type of statistical profile is unlikely to be replicated regardless, it's worth noting that offensive coordinator Kendal Briles left for Florida State. Prior to his one-year stint with the Cougars, Briles teamed up with Lane Kiffin at Florida Atlantic in 2017 and led FAU to an 11-win season. FAU's offense dropped off significantly last season following Briles' departure. Holgorsen is no slouch, but expectations of similar offensive production in 2019 aren't realistic.
With a difficult nonconference schedule that includes games against Oklahoma, Washington State and North Texas away from home (projected underdogs in all three games), reaching eight wins again would be quite the accomplishment. Houston also draws the three highest-rated teams in the AAC (Cincinnati, UCF and Memphis), and gets two of its more winnable conference matchups against Tulane and Tulsa on the road. With my projection coming in at nearly six wins flat, an under seven at +145 is fantastic value (as are the under 7.5s with reasonable juice in the market).
[h=2]14. Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 5.5 wins (-185)[/h]Win projection: 6.38
When quarterback Sam Hartman went down after breaking his leg in Wake Forest's ninth game last season, nobody expected replacement Jamie Newmanto score 136 points and lead the Demon Deacons to a 3-1 record in four starts. I believe Newman is a more versatile option with his size (6-foot-4, 235 pounds) and ability to run the football. Regardless of whom Dave Clawson awards the job, both Newman and Hartman are great options to lead the Wake Forest offense.
My favorite part about this bet is the real possibility the Demon Deacons start the season 6-0. I project them to be favorites in five of their first six games, and the road trip as likely underdogs to Boston College (who I am down on) is still a win 48 percent of the time. They'll be favored in two more home games against NC State and Duke, which should be enough to get them bowl eligible (and cash our over 5.5 wins tickets). I think Newman at quarterback offers more upside than my current rating projects for Wake Forest (I was being cautious with no announcement about the starter for Week 1 yet), so 6.38 wins is the average floor for this team.
[h=2]13. Ohio State Buckeyes not to make the playoff (-150)[/h]At MGM
Win projection: 9.88
There are too many question marks on this Buckeyes team for me to be in any way bullish about a potential playoff run. For starters, Ryan Day is taking over for Urban Meyer in his first gig as a full-time head coach. Day was 3-0 last season serving as the interim coach to start the year, but this consisted of games against Oregon State, Rutgers and a down TCU team. Meyer is one of the best ever coach at the college level.
The Ohio State defense also gave up the most points per game in school history this past season (25.5) and benefited from the best opponent average starting field position in the entire country. Their rushing defense was particularly bad, ranking 75th and giving up 4.6 yards per rush. While nine starters return in 2019, that's not always a big positive. They are likely to improve to a degree, but it's hard to see enough upside with this unit to immediately take them to an elite level again.
Buckeyes fans may not be worried about the departure of the school's single-season passing leader, Dwayne Haskins, leaving for the NFL, but I'm more skeptical. Justin Fields was a highly touted recruit who committed to Georgia last season, and I was told he was given every chance to win the job over Jake Fromm. While the Bulldogs gave him a few opportunities in games throughout the season, he never quite fit and Fromm never lost the gig. Fields transferred to Ohio State, but completed just four of his 13 pass attempts and was sacked four times in the Buckeyes' spring game. Fields will need to be called upon as a passer to win in the Big Ten -- and I'm not sure he has the ability to do that.
I prefer the bet on Ohio State to miss the playoff at -150 to betting the season win total under 10 at roughly even money. While I think there is quite a bit of downside to the season for the Buckeyes, I still project they win 10 games more often than any other result. And at 10-2, it isn't very likely they will earn a spot in the College Football Playoff (even if they win the Big Ten title). Ohio State didn't even make it this past season when they finished 12-1 with the conference championship.
[h=2]12. TCU Horned Frogs under 7.5 wins (+100)[/h]Win projection: 6.43
I probably owe Phil Steele for hyping up TCU as his No. 3 surprise team for 2019. He could certainly be right, but my projections suggest under 7.5 wins at even money is a valuable bet long term. Gary Patterson's defense was the best in the Big 12 in multiple categories this past year, and while he is generally able to replenish losses on the defensive side of the football, he has over 400 tackles at linebacker and a four-year starter at safety to replace this upcoming season. That's a little more difficult to do in the Big 12, and concerns on offense and a lack of certainty at the QB position won't help.
TCU has three likely wins early on its schedule and then a likely loss on the road against Oklahoma. I only project the Horned Frogs to be true favorites in two of the other eight games (-1.5 at home versus Baylor and -3 at home against West Virginia). I'm happy to trust my numbers here and make a TCU squad with multiple question marks win five of these matchups to get to eight or more wins.
[h=2]11. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders under 5.5 wins (-130)[/h]At FanDuel
Win projection: 4.94
The loss of Conference USA's MVP and Middle Tennessee State's all-time leading passer, Brent Stockstill, is as significant a loss as any in college football this offseason. The Blue Raiders were without Stockstill due to injuries occasionally during his tenure, and blindly betting against MTSU in those spots was almost automatic. The offense has struggled mightily without him on the field and lost quite a few other key pieces to graduation.
With games against Michigan, Duke and Iowa in the nonconference schedule, it's going to be difficult for Stockstill's replacement to get much going early in the season. I project the Blue Raiders to be underdogs in their first four conference battles following the Iowa game in Iowa City, so it's fair to say the deck is stacked against them. When a coaching staff is trying to figure out the future QB while filling in other holes on offense and defens, a schedule front-loaded with seven schools rated better and an FCS matchup against Tennessee State is about the worst-case scenario. MTSU gets Rice and Old Dominion at home toward the end of the year, but there's a good chance this season will have gotten away from the Blue Raiders by then. I expect them to post their first losing record since 2011.
[h=2]10. Air Force Falcons under 8 wins (-160)[/h]At Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Win projection: 6.63
This is just a case of my projections being far from the market, as I don't really have anything negative to say about the Falcons. The last time an Air Force QB started every game for a season was in 2012, and they don't have much talent at the running back position, so the best ball carriers on the team have generally been at QB. That tends to catch up to a team over the course of a season.
Road trips to Colorado and Boise State in Weeks 2 and 3 will likely be losses, so getting beat on an under-eight-wins ticket will be contingent on the Falcons winning nine of their remaining 10 games. I've talked to people who are regularly betting FCS games, and they even think the opener against Colgate could be a loss for Air Force. The Falcons will also be underdogs to Fresno State and Utah State to go along with their yearly academy coin flips against Army and Navy.
Note: While under 7.5s in the market are still worthwhile and in my top 25, at that number this particular bet would be further down my list.
[h=2]9,8. Nevada Wolf Pack to win the Mountain West (35-1); over 6 wins (-110)[/h]At Circa
Win projection: 7.08
This is a high-variance play on the Wolf Pack to win the Mountain West at 35-1. After QB Christian Solano went down last week with a broken hand, the other contender for the starting spot entering the 2019 season, Malik Henry, will now likely step in ... and I love it. Henry is a former blue-chip recruit for the Florida State Seminoles in 2016 who was suspended for off-the-field issues. He later transferred to play at a community college and was featured on the show "Last Chance U."
enry is likely the most talented quarterback in the conference, under center for a Jay Norvell squad that averaged over 31 PPG last season. This could be absolutely massive for the Wolf Pack.
Their defense also took a major leap in 2018 with Jeff Casteel's 3-3-5 stack taking over on that side of the ball. They allowed seven fewer points per game and nearly one yard less per play. I'm a big proponent of the 3-3-5 defense. It's a scheme that was more commonly run 15 to 25 years ago, but outside of Bronco Mendenhall, there aren't many coaches utilizing it. Against young quarterbacks who haven't seen it before (nobody grows up in middle school or high school anymore preparing for 3-3-5 defenses), it's especially valuable.
Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State have to replace their starting QBs in the Mountain West. Does it get much better than 35-1 on arguably the conference's most talented quarterback (Henry), with a defense that is designed to confuse inexperienced quarterbacks (which all of the regular conference contenders will have under center this season)? Sign me up, and while we're at it, sign me up for over six wins too.
[h=2]7. UAB Blazers under 8 wins (-125)[/h]At Circa
Win projection: 7.07
Everything lined up for UAB last season, and it resulted in a Conference USA championship in just the second season since the football program was reinstated. Head coach Bill Clark has done a remarkable job. His biggest challenge likely lies ahead, however, with the Blazers replacing the most production of any team in the country entering 2019 (top five receivers and four starting offensive linemen).
The Tigers are being priced in the market like a contender again in the Conference USA this season, but I don't think that's likely. I currently rate six schools ahead of UAB in the conference, and the Blazers have to face three of them on the road (Western Kentucky, Southern Mississippi, North Texas). With a road trip to Tennessee and a home game against a conference favorite in Louisiana Tech also on the schedule (I project them to be underdogs in all five of these games), the odds of reaching nine wins are unlikely enough to warrant a play on the under here.
[h=2]6. Kentucky Wildcats under 6.5 wins (+130)[/h]Win projection: 5.89
It's going to be extremely difficult for a program finally breaking through with marquee wins and a national presence this past season to lose two NFL-caliber players and 12 other starters ... and replicate that success. If the Wildcats played in the MAC or Sun Belt, I could see how they could at least somewhat replace the production National Defensive Player of the Year Josh Allen and all-time leading rusher Benny Snell brought to the table. Kentucky, however, plays in the SEC -- the country's best conference.
While the prospects of quarterback Terry Wilson returning seem positive, he finished dead last in the SEC passing at just 145 yards per game this past season. The Wildcats clearly relied heavily on Snell and their defense, and while head coach Mark Stoops has said they will need a more balanced attack, can Kentucky really rely on Wilson to suddenly become an impactful passer against SEC defenses? Getting a price of +125 on the under 6.5 wins when I project six or fewer wins the majority of the time this season is certainly an edge worth betting.
[h=2]5. Colorado State Rams under 4 wins (-155)[/h]At Circa
Win projection: 2.35
This is one of the biggest discrepancies between the market and my win total projection. The Rams would need to finish 2.65 games above expectation to give us a loss on an under-four-wins bet. Mike Bobo's program took a nosedive this past season en route to a 3-9 record. An average scoring margin of minus-14 points per game explains the lack of wins, and it was the nation's 121st-ranked defense that did them in.
Games against Colorado, Arkansas and Toledo out of conference will see the Rams as double-digit underdogs according to my projections, and similarly to Air Force and its FCS matchup, I only anticipate CSU to beat Western Illinois 61 percent of the time in Week 2. While 1-3 is the most likely result after nonconference play concludes, 0-4 is a legitimate possibility.
The Rams then should be underdogs in eight straight Mountain West games. New Mexico on the road (+2.5) and UNLV at home (+1) are closer to coin flips, but they will find themselves double-digit underdogs in the other six contests. I don't see how Colorado State reaches five wins very often this season (three or fewer wins 59 percent of the time, four wins 14 percent of the time and five or more just 27 percent of the time). This is only a losing proposition 27 percent of the time! I'm all over it at under four wins, and it's one of my bigger futures bets of the year.
[h=2]4. Missouri Tigers over 8 wins (-145)[/h]Win projection: 9.13
The Tigers lost QB Drew Lock to the NFL, but I'm high on them because they replaced him with an impact player, Kelly Bryant. We have seen Bryant have success on the big stage against top-notch defenses when he was under center at Clemson. There is no shame in losing a starting spot to Trevor Lawrence and while Bryant won't be as prolific a passer as Lock, he's definitely a better runner. I imagine head coach Barry Odom and offensive coordinator Derek Dooley are licking their chops at the prospect of scheming an offense around Bryant's mobility and Larry Rountree III in the backfield.
The main part of the equation for an over season wins bet is the Tigers' schedule, which is about as easy as an SEC slate gets. They dodge Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Mississippi State from the West, and of their two toughest divisional games against Georgia and Florida, they get the most winnable (the Gators) at home. I project Missouri to be at least a 7.5-point favorite in 10 of its games this season. When the Tigers host the Gators the game will likely be lined around pick' em, and the game against the Bulldogs I'll assume is a loss. This sets up as nicely as possible for a team that I rank No. 16 in the country.
I was fairly cautious with my preseason ratings with this Missouri team, but I still project 9.13 wins on average this year. With potentially even more upside with Bryant under center, I'll happily grab the over eight wins.
[h=2]3. Texas Longhorns under 9 wins (+105)[/h]Win projection: 6.99
There isn't a more overhyped -- and overvalued -- team in the country this year. In just about every media poll I've seen, Texas ranks in the top 10. I think the Longhorns are the 28th-best team in the country entering the season.
Let's look back at what we know from last year's squad: Texas allowed 5.6 yards per play to opponents, but only gained 5.5 YPP on offense. Every time the Longhorns lined up to run a play, they were getting outgained. It's hard to score more points than an opponent doing that.
So how did Tom Herman muster a 10-4 season? The Longhorns were 7-3 in one-score games. We know that is expected to regress to 50-50 long term, so while it's possible they could defy the odds again in 2019, I'm looking to bet on what is expected to happen, on average. Is a defense replacing its front seven and both starting cornerbacks in a prime position to be relied on in close games (if they can even keep them close)? Big 12 offenses are tough to defend, and Texas lands an elite LSU team in nonconference early in the season while the defense is still inexperienced. I'm willing to bet against it.
Season win totals for Texas at 9.5 in the -150 price range exist in the market as well, and I think both are worthwhile options. I project the Longhorns to be underdogs in four games this season and pick 'em in three others. If Sam Ehlinger and the young defense can lead the program to double-digit wins in the regular season and beat us, I'll tip my cap.
[h=2]2. Oklahoma Sooners to win the Big 12 (-165)[/h]Win projection: 10.97
The factors that we need to address for this bet are twofold. The first part is assessing the likelihood that Oklahoma doesn't finish in one of the top two positions in the Big 12 at the end of the season. There aren't any divisions in the league, so the best two teams from the regular season move on to compete in the conference championship game. I rate the Sooners head and shoulders above every other team in the conference, and I project them to be a double-digit favorite in every game this season until their finale on the road against Oklahoma State (and still a -8.5-point favorite in that one).
The second part is looking ahead at that point to potential prices for the Sooners against their opponents in the Big 12 title game. I currently project Oklahoma to be a double-digit favorite over any other team in the conference on a neutral field, so at the very least we would be holding a -165 ticket in a game that the Sooners will likely be priced in the -300s (or higher). That is an extremely advantageous spot to be in.
While some sort of offensive efficiency loss is warranted with Kyler Murray in the NFL, I'm not sure it will be as drastic as the market believes (the market also loves Texas, which is another reason this Oklahoma price is so cheap). Jalen Hurts is still an impact quarterback, and head coach Lincoln Riley is still an offensive wizard. While Hurts likely won't be as good of a passer as Baker Mayfield or Murray, he is a dynamic runner and quite possibly a better decision-maker (25 touchdowns to only three interceptions his last two seasons at Alabama).
A ridiculously low turnover rate will also do wonders for a defense that Alex Grinch is taking over in 2019. Grinch was able to revamp a defense for a Washington State team in 2015 that ranked 107th in the country in defensive efficiency the year prior; in his first season, the Cougars improved to 69th nationwide in defensive efficiency. They improved each year, ranking 28th in Grinch's final season with the school.
The Sooners have the talent, experience and now the defensive mind to put it all together this season. They ranked 95th in 2018 (6.0 YPP defensively), but were No. 1 in offense, gaining 8.4 YPP. While the offense will likely drop off to some degree, there's no reason it can't be made up with an improvement on the defensive side of the ball. I think this squad has the upside to be Riley's best since taking over in 2017.
[h=2]1. Ohio Bobcats to win the Mid-American East (-134)[/h]At DraftKings
Win projection: 7.78
The Bobcats begin and end with QB Nathan Rourke. Over the past two seasons, Rourke has thrown for 40 TDs and rushed for 36 more. He's far and away the best quarterback in the MAC, and in a conference with less talent and fewer playmakers across the board, Rourke's versatility and value are compounded. Ohio scored over 40 PPG in 2018 and I project more of the same this upcoming season.
The Bobcats also benefit from playing in the East division. Buffalo won the East this past year behind MAC offensive player of the year Tyree Jackson, but the Bulls are expected to take a major step back after losing Jackson and nine defensive starters to graduation. Akron, Bowling Green and Kent State aren't even in the same vicinity as far as talent level goes in 2019, which leaves the Miami RedHawks as the likely contender in the East with Ohio. Fortunately for the Bobcats, they get to face Miami at home, where I currently project them to be a 6.5-point favorite.
At the price of -134, we only need Ohio to win the East 57.3 percent of the time to break even, and I have them taking it down 71.0 percent of the time (or a true line of -246). This is my biggest edge of the preseason.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The 2019-20 college football is almost here and there are plenty of bets available to make right now.
I've revealed them briefly on Daily Wager (Monday-Friday, ESPNEWS) over the past few weeks, but here they are in written form, along with several reasons why I bet them.
These are my top 25 favorite CFB futures bets heading into the season.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Aug. 14, unless otherwise noted.
[h=2]25. Georgia Bulldogs to win the SEC (+275)[/h]At Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Win projection: 10.88
Kirby Smart's squad is stacked with elite talent. They are my No. 3-rated team going into the season, and there is a pretty big gap between them and the next two (LSU and Oklahoma). We know the Bulldogs can stand toe-to-toe with Alabama, given their matchups the past two seasons in which they've trailed for a combined one minute and four seconds.
This ultimately comes down to a comparison between the current and potential price in an SEC title game. In a worst-case scenario -- matching up against Alabama -- I only project Georgia to be a 4.5-point underdog, which is roughly a price of +170 on the money line. That makes having a +275 ticket in our back pocket extremely valuable at that point. There's an outside chance that UGA doesn't win the East division, but there's also a chance that Alabama isn't representing the West -- which presents more upside to a Bulldogs ticket (since they would be a favorite over any other team).
The swing game could be Florida, but I project Georgia to be a nine-point favorite and win the game 75 percent of the time. Of the 25 percent of the time they lose to the Gators, nearly 16 percent the Bulldogs still win the East anyway (more on Florida later).
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[h=2]24. Georgia RB D'Andre Swift to win the Heisman (40-1)[/h]Swift split carries with Elijah Holyfield (now in the NFL) last season and battled a groin injury, but still rushed for 1,049 yards and 10 touchdowns. Georgia's top five receiving options from a year ago are no longer on the team, and I anticipate Swift to be utilized in the passing game this season much more. Georgia began this process the final two games of last season (Alabama, Texas), when Swift hauled in 11 catches for 93 yards and two TDs.
When looking for a Heisman candidate who offers up value, we want to find someone from a team that is likely to finish the season with double-digit wins (and a shot at the College Football Playoff as a bonus). There have been exceptions (Lamar Jackson and Tim Tebow), but this is generally a good rule of thumb. The Bulldogs should be a double-digit-win squad this season and a contender down the stretch. To have that team's likely Heisman candidate at 40-1 is too good of a price to pass up.
[h=2]23. Boston College Eagles under 6 wins (+100)[/h]At FanDuel
Win projection: 5.52
Head coach Steve Addazio made a few awkward adjustments to the defensive coaching staff after failing to reach its full potential in the last couple of seasons. Linebackers coach Bill Sheridan is taking over the playcalling duties, and former defensive coordinator Jim Reid has been demoted to defensive ends coach. So the old defensive coordinator is still on the team, and Sheridan is getting his shot. Sheridan isn't set up to succeed, though, with the loss of eight starters from a talent-packed unit.
Quarterback Anthony Brown and running back AJ Dillon are two names from the offense that people will recognize, but the Eagles lost four starters from the offensive line and need to redevelop a similar rushing attack that worked in recent years. My projection comes in at 5.52 wins with a brutal close to their schedule (projected underdogs of at least a touchdown in their final five games, and pick 'em in the three prior). There's certainly more downside with this team with a potential injury to Brown or Dillon (both have missed games in the last two seasons) than there is upside at this point in a rebuilding year. I took the under 6.5 wins and I'd also recommend it at under 6 wins plus-money.
[h=2]22. Nebraska Cornhuskers under 8.5 wins (+110)[/h]
Win projection: 7.14
The Cornhuskers' under is quite an edge based on the discrepancy between my projections and the current market. It's not surprising that everyone loves the prospects of Scott Frost in Year 2 at Nebraska and has bet this win total up all summer. We may even see a nine wins pop in the market eventually. I respect what Frost did at UCF and even bet the Knights at 25-1 to win the AAC that year. The high-variance approach is generally a good one to take in these instances (I even bet Nebraska to win the Big Ten at 17-1 earlier this summer), but a play on the over isn't embracing that variance correctly, and this isn't the AAC. The Big Ten is the second-best conference in football.
The Frost and Adrian Martinez upside is enough to keep this play from being higher on my list, but if it gets to a reasonably juiced nine wins (I haven't actually bet this one yet, since it has just been trickling up all summer), then this will be one of my biggest futures bets of the season. If it ultimately stays put at 8.5 plus-money, it's still an edge worth grabbing under. Nebraska's Pythagorean expected wins and regression metrics from last season point to an improvement, but I don't think it's going to be as significant as the market expects.
[h=2]21. Texas Tech Red Raiders over 6 wins (-134)[/h]Win projection: 7.03
I'm fairly intrigued by this Red Raiders squad in a Big 12 conference that is wide open outside of Norman, Oklahoma. Texas Tech was 5-7 last season but dropped its final five games and lost three of them by a single possession. In fact, the Red Raiders' Pythagorean wins expectation was a full two games higher at 7-5.
I understand why people expect a drop-off with Kliff Kingsbury's departure, but his football teams didn't play defense. Texas Tech's best defense under Kingsbury came in 2018 and it ranked outside the top 80 in defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders return the majority of that personnel this year for a defensive-minded coach in Matt Wells coming over from Utah State. People may argue that their offense is going to take a major hit regardless, but offensive coordinator David Yost has experience as an assistant at Washington State under Mike Leach and already incorporates concepts from the Air Raid scheme. That offense in Logan last season, by the way, ranked eighth in the country in efficiency.
With my projection for Texas Tech at 7.03 wins and five or fewer wins all that will beat us here, it's worth a bet on the over six wins.
The Red Raiders have three very likely wins on their schedule and a likely loss to Oklahoma. They only need to go 3-5 in the remaining eight games to avoid losing this bet, and I have them going 4-4 in those more often than any other result.
[h=2]20. LSU Tigers over 9 wins (-125)[/h]Win projection: 9.57
The Tigers made my favorite hire in the offseason bringing in Joe Brady from the New Orleans Saints to serve as their passing game coordinator. Brady looks to implement pieces of the Saints' dynamic passing game along with run-pass option (RPO) components to an offense that has been as straightforward and "pro-style" as can be in recent years. The best part about this setup is that Joe Burrow, who transferred to LSU last year from Ohio State, was recruited by Urban Meyer to run a spread RPO offense. It's what Burrow ran for four years in high school.
LSU was going to be elite on offense this season, but there is a ton of upside that I haven't even accounted for in my projections. Bringing back the majority of the playmakers on both sides of the ball following a New Year's Six bowl win last season bodes well, and the Tigers always recruit at a high level in Baton Rouge. The only reason my win projection is 9.57 is that the Tigers' schedule is going to be one of the toughest in the nation. I do think that they get Texas at the right time in Week 2, as the Longhorns are trying to address replacing nine members of their defense, but trips to Alabama and Mississippi State to go along with home matchups against Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M will test this LSU squad relentlessly.
I believe the Tigers will finish the regular season 9-3 a decent portion of the time, so the 8.5s in the market in the -150 price range are a worthwhile wager as well (I actually prefer it in this case). Either way, both numbers offer value to the over. If I'm getting a chance to fade 8-4 or worse on the team I rate the fourth best in the country entering the season -- despite the difficult schedule -- I'm going to take it.
[h=2]19. Florida Gators under 9 wins (-155)[/h]Win projection: 8.41
This is a numbers and scheduling play for me. As you can tell at this point, I'm bullish on Georgia and LSU out of the SEC. Florida has to travel to Baton Rouge to face the Tigers and meet the Bulldogs on a neutral field. I project the Gators to be eight- and nine-point underdogs in these games, respectively. Of their other matchups in the conference, they host Auburn and have to face South Carolina and Missouri on the road. This doesn't even account for two inner-state rivalry games, against Miami and Florida State, to open and close the season.
I believe Florida will have to win all 10 of those games to beat us here. The Gators aren't on the level of LSU or Georgia, and they don't get the benefit of facing either team at The Swamp. I understand the hype after a 9-3 regular season in 2018 and a bowl win over Michigan, but nine wins is likely the ceiling for this squad.
[h=2]18. Wisconsin Badgers over 8 wins (-135)[/h]Win projection: 8.94
I understand the hype with a few of the teams in the Big Ten West this season, like Nebraska, Minnesota and Purdue. The division has improved as a whole and Iowa is always going to be a strong squad, but let's not pretend like Wisconsin hasn't been the face of the division for the last decade. The last time the Badgers failed to win eight games was 2008, and last year was the only time they needed a bowl game to reach that number. It was the first time Wisconsin didn't win double-digit games under Paul Chryst.
My projections account for the strength of the Badgers' schedule and the other teams in their division and conference, and I still have them winning nine games more often than any other result. RB Jonathan Taylor is a deserving Heisman candidate, and Wisconsin moving on from QB Alex Hornibrook is addition by subtraction. This is still the best team in the West, and I'm willing to bet the Badgers win at least eight contests in 2019.
[h=2]17. Oklahoma State Cowboys over 7 wins (-140)[/h]Win projection: 8.22
I currently rate the Cowboys as the second-best team in the Big 12 behind the Sooners. Iowa State and Texas aren't too far behind, but I expect big things out of Stillwater in 2019. Oklahoma State finished last season 7-6 after dropping three road games (Baylor, Oklahoma and TCU) by a single possession in November. The Pythagorean expected wins based on overall production was actually a record of 8-5.
While I think seven wins again is closer to the Cowboys' floor, much of the upside will hinge on highly touted freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders. His dual-threat ability helped foster a 46-6 record in high school. Oklahoma State has an abundance of proven playmakers, and if Sanders doesn't immediately look the part, then former Hawaii starting quarterback and transfer Dru Brown can step in.
As far as the numbers are concerned, I project the Cowboys to be double-digit favorites in five of their games and smaller favorites in four more. A home game against the Sooners is their least likely shot at a victory, although last year in Norman they lost 48-47 after going for a two-point conversion in the final minute of the game. The schedule is favorable enough that I even considered Oklahoma State at 300-1 to win the national championship for a couple of minutes this summer (I ultimately passed, but 20-1 to win the Big 12 is intriguing). I'd be shocked if Mike Gundy's squad finished .500 or worse with this setup, so I grabbed the over seven wins.
[h=2]16. Wisconsin Badgers to win the Big Ten (16-1)[/h]At Westgate
This price is lower at Caesars, but 16-1 is available at other books. The Cornhuskers and Scott Frost in Year 2 are all the preseason rage, but to put this 15-1 into perspective, Nebraska is only 7-1 to win the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers do have an easier schedule than the Badgers, but even Iowa is listed at 15-1 and Wisconsin gets the Hawkeyes at home (projected 7.5-point favorite). Any time I can get the best team in a division at 15-1 to win the conference, I'm going to look into it.
In the case the Badgers reach the championship game, the biggest spread I currently project would be against the Michigan Wolverines. As roughly a 6.5-point underdog in the title game, my true line for Wisconsin to win the game would be +212 -- and we'd be holding +1500. This is plenty of potential value to buy low on the Badgers and snag some 15-1 to go along with our bet on the over eight wins.
[h=2]15. Houston Cougars under 7 wins (+135)[/h]Win projection: 6.07
Speaking of buying low, we also want to be looking for advantageous spots in the betting markets where we can sell high. I don't think the perception gets much higher for this Houston program than signing head coach Dana Holgorsen following a season in which quarterback D'Eriq King led FBS with 50 touchdowns. While that type of statistical profile is unlikely to be replicated regardless, it's worth noting that offensive coordinator Kendal Briles left for Florida State. Prior to his one-year stint with the Cougars, Briles teamed up with Lane Kiffin at Florida Atlantic in 2017 and led FAU to an 11-win season. FAU's offense dropped off significantly last season following Briles' departure. Holgorsen is no slouch, but expectations of similar offensive production in 2019 aren't realistic.
With a difficult nonconference schedule that includes games against Oklahoma, Washington State and North Texas away from home (projected underdogs in all three games), reaching eight wins again would be quite the accomplishment. Houston also draws the three highest-rated teams in the AAC (Cincinnati, UCF and Memphis), and gets two of its more winnable conference matchups against Tulane and Tulsa on the road. With my projection coming in at nearly six wins flat, an under seven at +145 is fantastic value (as are the under 7.5s with reasonable juice in the market).
[h=2]14. Wake Forest Demon Deacons over 5.5 wins (-185)[/h]Win projection: 6.38
When quarterback Sam Hartman went down after breaking his leg in Wake Forest's ninth game last season, nobody expected replacement Jamie Newmanto score 136 points and lead the Demon Deacons to a 3-1 record in four starts. I believe Newman is a more versatile option with his size (6-foot-4, 235 pounds) and ability to run the football. Regardless of whom Dave Clawson awards the job, both Newman and Hartman are great options to lead the Wake Forest offense.
My favorite part about this bet is the real possibility the Demon Deacons start the season 6-0. I project them to be favorites in five of their first six games, and the road trip as likely underdogs to Boston College (who I am down on) is still a win 48 percent of the time. They'll be favored in two more home games against NC State and Duke, which should be enough to get them bowl eligible (and cash our over 5.5 wins tickets). I think Newman at quarterback offers more upside than my current rating projects for Wake Forest (I was being cautious with no announcement about the starter for Week 1 yet), so 6.38 wins is the average floor for this team.
[h=2]13. Ohio State Buckeyes not to make the playoff (-150)[/h]At MGM
Win projection: 9.88
There are too many question marks on this Buckeyes team for me to be in any way bullish about a potential playoff run. For starters, Ryan Day is taking over for Urban Meyer in his first gig as a full-time head coach. Day was 3-0 last season serving as the interim coach to start the year, but this consisted of games against Oregon State, Rutgers and a down TCU team. Meyer is one of the best ever coach at the college level.
The Ohio State defense also gave up the most points per game in school history this past season (25.5) and benefited from the best opponent average starting field position in the entire country. Their rushing defense was particularly bad, ranking 75th and giving up 4.6 yards per rush. While nine starters return in 2019, that's not always a big positive. They are likely to improve to a degree, but it's hard to see enough upside with this unit to immediately take them to an elite level again.
Buckeyes fans may not be worried about the departure of the school's single-season passing leader, Dwayne Haskins, leaving for the NFL, but I'm more skeptical. Justin Fields was a highly touted recruit who committed to Georgia last season, and I was told he was given every chance to win the job over Jake Fromm. While the Bulldogs gave him a few opportunities in games throughout the season, he never quite fit and Fromm never lost the gig. Fields transferred to Ohio State, but completed just four of his 13 pass attempts and was sacked four times in the Buckeyes' spring game. Fields will need to be called upon as a passer to win in the Big Ten -- and I'm not sure he has the ability to do that.
I prefer the bet on Ohio State to miss the playoff at -150 to betting the season win total under 10 at roughly even money. While I think there is quite a bit of downside to the season for the Buckeyes, I still project they win 10 games more often than any other result. And at 10-2, it isn't very likely they will earn a spot in the College Football Playoff (even if they win the Big Ten title). Ohio State didn't even make it this past season when they finished 12-1 with the conference championship.
[h=2]12. TCU Horned Frogs under 7.5 wins (+100)[/h]Win projection: 6.43
I probably owe Phil Steele for hyping up TCU as his No. 3 surprise team for 2019. He could certainly be right, but my projections suggest under 7.5 wins at even money is a valuable bet long term. Gary Patterson's defense was the best in the Big 12 in multiple categories this past year, and while he is generally able to replenish losses on the defensive side of the football, he has over 400 tackles at linebacker and a four-year starter at safety to replace this upcoming season. That's a little more difficult to do in the Big 12, and concerns on offense and a lack of certainty at the QB position won't help.
TCU has three likely wins early on its schedule and then a likely loss on the road against Oklahoma. I only project the Horned Frogs to be true favorites in two of the other eight games (-1.5 at home versus Baylor and -3 at home against West Virginia). I'm happy to trust my numbers here and make a TCU squad with multiple question marks win five of these matchups to get to eight or more wins.
[h=2]11. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders under 5.5 wins (-130)[/h]At FanDuel
Win projection: 4.94
The loss of Conference USA's MVP and Middle Tennessee State's all-time leading passer, Brent Stockstill, is as significant a loss as any in college football this offseason. The Blue Raiders were without Stockstill due to injuries occasionally during his tenure, and blindly betting against MTSU in those spots was almost automatic. The offense has struggled mightily without him on the field and lost quite a few other key pieces to graduation.
With games against Michigan, Duke and Iowa in the nonconference schedule, it's going to be difficult for Stockstill's replacement to get much going early in the season. I project the Blue Raiders to be underdogs in their first four conference battles following the Iowa game in Iowa City, so it's fair to say the deck is stacked against them. When a coaching staff is trying to figure out the future QB while filling in other holes on offense and defens, a schedule front-loaded with seven schools rated better and an FCS matchup against Tennessee State is about the worst-case scenario. MTSU gets Rice and Old Dominion at home toward the end of the year, but there's a good chance this season will have gotten away from the Blue Raiders by then. I expect them to post their first losing record since 2011.
[h=2]10. Air Force Falcons under 8 wins (-160)[/h]At Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Win projection: 6.63
This is just a case of my projections being far from the market, as I don't really have anything negative to say about the Falcons. The last time an Air Force QB started every game for a season was in 2012, and they don't have much talent at the running back position, so the best ball carriers on the team have generally been at QB. That tends to catch up to a team over the course of a season.
Road trips to Colorado and Boise State in Weeks 2 and 3 will likely be losses, so getting beat on an under-eight-wins ticket will be contingent on the Falcons winning nine of their remaining 10 games. I've talked to people who are regularly betting FCS games, and they even think the opener against Colgate could be a loss for Air Force. The Falcons will also be underdogs to Fresno State and Utah State to go along with their yearly academy coin flips against Army and Navy.
Note: While under 7.5s in the market are still worthwhile and in my top 25, at that number this particular bet would be further down my list.
[h=2]9,8. Nevada Wolf Pack to win the Mountain West (35-1); over 6 wins (-110)[/h]At Circa
Win projection: 7.08
This is a high-variance play on the Wolf Pack to win the Mountain West at 35-1. After QB Christian Solano went down last week with a broken hand, the other contender for the starting spot entering the 2019 season, Malik Henry, will now likely step in ... and I love it. Henry is a former blue-chip recruit for the Florida State Seminoles in 2016 who was suspended for off-the-field issues. He later transferred to play at a community college and was featured on the show "Last Chance U."
enry is likely the most talented quarterback in the conference, under center for a Jay Norvell squad that averaged over 31 PPG last season. This could be absolutely massive for the Wolf Pack.
Their defense also took a major leap in 2018 with Jeff Casteel's 3-3-5 stack taking over on that side of the ball. They allowed seven fewer points per game and nearly one yard less per play. I'm a big proponent of the 3-3-5 defense. It's a scheme that was more commonly run 15 to 25 years ago, but outside of Bronco Mendenhall, there aren't many coaches utilizing it. Against young quarterbacks who haven't seen it before (nobody grows up in middle school or high school anymore preparing for 3-3-5 defenses), it's especially valuable.
Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State have to replace their starting QBs in the Mountain West. Does it get much better than 35-1 on arguably the conference's most talented quarterback (Henry), with a defense that is designed to confuse inexperienced quarterbacks (which all of the regular conference contenders will have under center this season)? Sign me up, and while we're at it, sign me up for over six wins too.
[h=2]7. UAB Blazers under 8 wins (-125)[/h]At Circa
Win projection: 7.07
Everything lined up for UAB last season, and it resulted in a Conference USA championship in just the second season since the football program was reinstated. Head coach Bill Clark has done a remarkable job. His biggest challenge likely lies ahead, however, with the Blazers replacing the most production of any team in the country entering 2019 (top five receivers and four starting offensive linemen).
The Tigers are being priced in the market like a contender again in the Conference USA this season, but I don't think that's likely. I currently rate six schools ahead of UAB in the conference, and the Blazers have to face three of them on the road (Western Kentucky, Southern Mississippi, North Texas). With a road trip to Tennessee and a home game against a conference favorite in Louisiana Tech also on the schedule (I project them to be underdogs in all five of these games), the odds of reaching nine wins are unlikely enough to warrant a play on the under here.
[h=2]6. Kentucky Wildcats under 6.5 wins (+130)[/h]Win projection: 5.89
It's going to be extremely difficult for a program finally breaking through with marquee wins and a national presence this past season to lose two NFL-caliber players and 12 other starters ... and replicate that success. If the Wildcats played in the MAC or Sun Belt, I could see how they could at least somewhat replace the production National Defensive Player of the Year Josh Allen and all-time leading rusher Benny Snell brought to the table. Kentucky, however, plays in the SEC -- the country's best conference.
While the prospects of quarterback Terry Wilson returning seem positive, he finished dead last in the SEC passing at just 145 yards per game this past season. The Wildcats clearly relied heavily on Snell and their defense, and while head coach Mark Stoops has said they will need a more balanced attack, can Kentucky really rely on Wilson to suddenly become an impactful passer against SEC defenses? Getting a price of +125 on the under 6.5 wins when I project six or fewer wins the majority of the time this season is certainly an edge worth betting.
[h=2]5. Colorado State Rams under 4 wins (-155)[/h]At Circa
Win projection: 2.35
This is one of the biggest discrepancies between the market and my win total projection. The Rams would need to finish 2.65 games above expectation to give us a loss on an under-four-wins bet. Mike Bobo's program took a nosedive this past season en route to a 3-9 record. An average scoring margin of minus-14 points per game explains the lack of wins, and it was the nation's 121st-ranked defense that did them in.
Games against Colorado, Arkansas and Toledo out of conference will see the Rams as double-digit underdogs according to my projections, and similarly to Air Force and its FCS matchup, I only anticipate CSU to beat Western Illinois 61 percent of the time in Week 2. While 1-3 is the most likely result after nonconference play concludes, 0-4 is a legitimate possibility.
The Rams then should be underdogs in eight straight Mountain West games. New Mexico on the road (+2.5) and UNLV at home (+1) are closer to coin flips, but they will find themselves double-digit underdogs in the other six contests. I don't see how Colorado State reaches five wins very often this season (three or fewer wins 59 percent of the time, four wins 14 percent of the time and five or more just 27 percent of the time). This is only a losing proposition 27 percent of the time! I'm all over it at under four wins, and it's one of my bigger futures bets of the year.
[h=2]4. Missouri Tigers over 8 wins (-145)[/h]Win projection: 9.13
The Tigers lost QB Drew Lock to the NFL, but I'm high on them because they replaced him with an impact player, Kelly Bryant. We have seen Bryant have success on the big stage against top-notch defenses when he was under center at Clemson. There is no shame in losing a starting spot to Trevor Lawrence and while Bryant won't be as prolific a passer as Lock, he's definitely a better runner. I imagine head coach Barry Odom and offensive coordinator Derek Dooley are licking their chops at the prospect of scheming an offense around Bryant's mobility and Larry Rountree III in the backfield.
The main part of the equation for an over season wins bet is the Tigers' schedule, which is about as easy as an SEC slate gets. They dodge Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Mississippi State from the West, and of their two toughest divisional games against Georgia and Florida, they get the most winnable (the Gators) at home. I project Missouri to be at least a 7.5-point favorite in 10 of its games this season. When the Tigers host the Gators the game will likely be lined around pick' em, and the game against the Bulldogs I'll assume is a loss. This sets up as nicely as possible for a team that I rank No. 16 in the country.
I was fairly cautious with my preseason ratings with this Missouri team, but I still project 9.13 wins on average this year. With potentially even more upside with Bryant under center, I'll happily grab the over eight wins.
[h=2]3. Texas Longhorns under 9 wins (+105)[/h]Win projection: 6.99
There isn't a more overhyped -- and overvalued -- team in the country this year. In just about every media poll I've seen, Texas ranks in the top 10. I think the Longhorns are the 28th-best team in the country entering the season.
Let's look back at what we know from last year's squad: Texas allowed 5.6 yards per play to opponents, but only gained 5.5 YPP on offense. Every time the Longhorns lined up to run a play, they were getting outgained. It's hard to score more points than an opponent doing that.
So how did Tom Herman muster a 10-4 season? The Longhorns were 7-3 in one-score games. We know that is expected to regress to 50-50 long term, so while it's possible they could defy the odds again in 2019, I'm looking to bet on what is expected to happen, on average. Is a defense replacing its front seven and both starting cornerbacks in a prime position to be relied on in close games (if they can even keep them close)? Big 12 offenses are tough to defend, and Texas lands an elite LSU team in nonconference early in the season while the defense is still inexperienced. I'm willing to bet against it.
Season win totals for Texas at 9.5 in the -150 price range exist in the market as well, and I think both are worthwhile options. I project the Longhorns to be underdogs in four games this season and pick 'em in three others. If Sam Ehlinger and the young defense can lead the program to double-digit wins in the regular season and beat us, I'll tip my cap.
[h=2]2. Oklahoma Sooners to win the Big 12 (-165)[/h]Win projection: 10.97
The factors that we need to address for this bet are twofold. The first part is assessing the likelihood that Oklahoma doesn't finish in one of the top two positions in the Big 12 at the end of the season. There aren't any divisions in the league, so the best two teams from the regular season move on to compete in the conference championship game. I rate the Sooners head and shoulders above every other team in the conference, and I project them to be a double-digit favorite in every game this season until their finale on the road against Oklahoma State (and still a -8.5-point favorite in that one).
The second part is looking ahead at that point to potential prices for the Sooners against their opponents in the Big 12 title game. I currently project Oklahoma to be a double-digit favorite over any other team in the conference on a neutral field, so at the very least we would be holding a -165 ticket in a game that the Sooners will likely be priced in the -300s (or higher). That is an extremely advantageous spot to be in.
While some sort of offensive efficiency loss is warranted with Kyler Murray in the NFL, I'm not sure it will be as drastic as the market believes (the market also loves Texas, which is another reason this Oklahoma price is so cheap). Jalen Hurts is still an impact quarterback, and head coach Lincoln Riley is still an offensive wizard. While Hurts likely won't be as good of a passer as Baker Mayfield or Murray, he is a dynamic runner and quite possibly a better decision-maker (25 touchdowns to only three interceptions his last two seasons at Alabama).
A ridiculously low turnover rate will also do wonders for a defense that Alex Grinch is taking over in 2019. Grinch was able to revamp a defense for a Washington State team in 2015 that ranked 107th in the country in defensive efficiency the year prior; in his first season, the Cougars improved to 69th nationwide in defensive efficiency. They improved each year, ranking 28th in Grinch's final season with the school.
The Sooners have the talent, experience and now the defensive mind to put it all together this season. They ranked 95th in 2018 (6.0 YPP defensively), but were No. 1 in offense, gaining 8.4 YPP. While the offense will likely drop off to some degree, there's no reason it can't be made up with an improvement on the defensive side of the ball. I think this squad has the upside to be Riley's best since taking over in 2017.
[h=2]1. Ohio Bobcats to win the Mid-American East (-134)[/h]At DraftKings
Win projection: 7.78
The Bobcats begin and end with QB Nathan Rourke. Over the past two seasons, Rourke has thrown for 40 TDs and rushed for 36 more. He's far and away the best quarterback in the MAC, and in a conference with less talent and fewer playmakers across the board, Rourke's versatility and value are compounded. Ohio scored over 40 PPG in 2018 and I project more of the same this upcoming season.
The Bobcats also benefit from playing in the East division. Buffalo won the East this past year behind MAC offensive player of the year Tyree Jackson, but the Bulls are expected to take a major step back after losing Jackson and nine defensive starters to graduation. Akron, Bowling Green and Kent State aren't even in the same vicinity as far as talent level goes in 2019, which leaves the Miami RedHawks as the likely contender in the East with Ohio. Fortunately for the Bobcats, they get to face Miami at home, where I currently project them to be a 6.5-point favorite.
At the price of -134, we only need Ohio to win the East 57.3 percent of the time to break even, and I have them taking it down 71.0 percent of the time (or a true line of -246). This is my biggest edge of the preseason.
