Saturday Service Play Thread 8/31/2019

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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Stanford Steve

8/31/19 Ohio State vs Florida Atlantic Over 63.5
8/31/19 Northwestern + 6.5 vs Stanford
8/31/19 Kentucky vs Toledo Under 61.5
8/31/19 Boston College + 5 vs Virginia Tech
 

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LV Wolf
Aub -3
N Western 7 (-125)
 

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BEN BURNS

3*
Liberty +18
 

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JR ODONNELL

3*
Southern Cal -13.5


3*
Texas -20.5

3*GOM
Boise St. +5.5
 

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DAVE ESSLER

3*GOM
Missouri -17
 

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SPARTAN

2*
Wyoming +14.5
 

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FEZZIK

3*
Southern Cal -10


NDame UNDER 9.5 wins -150 2 stars

Texas UNDER 9 wins 2 stars
 

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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 8:00PM
209 Louisiana Tech 21.0(-110) Westgate vs 210 Texas single-dime bet

Analysis: 1-star (209) Louisiana Tech +21 over TEXAS. 8:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st.

I think Texas is one of the most overrated teams in the country this year. The Longhorns have just 8 returning starters (tied for last in country)as they lose their leading rusher, leading receiver and entire front 7 on defense. However I feel there was an overreaction to their Sugar Bowl win vs an un-motivated Georgia team and note that the Horns won 10 games last year but 7 of those games were by a TD or less. Tom Herman is a great underdog coach but in his career as a favorite, he is just 14-22-2 ATS (39%). Note that Texas has failed to cover as a double-digit favorite in each of their previous two season openers (lost both games outright to Maryland). Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. Finally, Texas has a huge look-ahead game vs LSU on deck.

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 4:00PM
187 Virginia Tech -3.5(-110) Westgate vs 188 Boston College single-dime bet

Analysis: 1-star (187) Virginia Tech -3.5 over BOSTON COLLEGE. 4:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st.
I have this line power-rated at VT -6.5. The mis-pricing here comes with a Virginia Tech team that had their first losing season since 1992 last year. However, this year's team will be much improved with 16 returning starters including 10 on the defensive side. The Hokies D should be plenty motivated in the final year under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster. As far as Boston College goes, I expect the Eagles to take a step back this season especially with only 9 returning starters. The betting public usually just looks at the skill positions and BC does return their starting QB, RB and top WR. However, they are woefully inexperienced in most other areas including the defensive secondary.
 

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Dave Cokin:

164 Nebraska -34
169 Ball State +17
181 South Carolina -7.5 (wait on this one to see if you can get -7, if not -7.5 is okay)
193 SMU +2.5
204 Pittsburgh +3
 

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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 10:30PM
214 Southern Cal -10.0(-110) William Hill vs 213 Fresno St. triple-dime bet

Analysis:
USC needs a feel-good win here after a disappointing 2018 season. Head coach Clay Helton is on the hot seat but he did make a great hire in bringing in O.C. Graham Harrell from North Texas whose offenses averaged 35 ppg the last two years. Harrell inherits a lot of talent as QB JT Daniels is back after a "so-so" true freshman season along with one of the best sets of WR's in the country. Meanwhile, Fresno St is being over-priced because the Bulldogs are coming off their best season in school history (12 wins). I look for the Bulldogs to take a couple steps back this season as they are No. 129 in the country in returning experience with only 9 starters back. Fresno will be starting a brand new QB at night in a freshly renovated L.A. Coliseum. The Trojans should roll here.

I like this pick as a 3-star up to -12.5...2-star from -13 to -13.5. 1-star at -14.
 

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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 7:00PM
192 Florida St. -4.0(-105) Pinnacle vs 191 Boise St. triple-dime bet

Analysis: 3-star (192) Florida St -4 over Boise St in Jacksonville, FL. 7:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st. I'm buying a Florida State team that is off their worst season since 1976 as I expect to see some regression to the mean here. The Seminoles return 16 starters and are much improved on both sides of the ball. Obviously, year one under head coach Willie Taggart wasn't a good look. However, note that in his career, his teams improved upon the previous year's season win total in 6 of his previous 8 years (one win total remained the same). I reached out to an FSU insider this week that watches practice each day and the first week so far has looked good for the Noles. Meanwhile, Boise St has to replace a 4-year starting QB, a 1,400-yard rusher and their top 2 receivers. This game will be played in Jacksonville and as of a few weeks ago, FSU has sold 34,000 tickets for the game. Boise State requested only 2,500 tickets. There will be at least 90% Florida St fans in the crowd.
 

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Alex B. Smith Sports
College Football
8/31 2* Florida State -4.5 (Best Bet)
8/31 1* Liberty +18.5
8/31 1* Northern Illinois -4 -120
8/31 1* Nebraska -22 (First Half)
 

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Let's go Brandon!
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Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

Double Play
Florida State -6.5 over Boise State

Single Plays
Toledo +11.5 over Kentucky
Georgia Southern +27.5 over LSU
Georgia -21 over Vandy
Louisiana Tech +20.5 over Texas
Northwestern--Stanford under 47.5
 

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Scott Van Pelt
217-195-8 all time

Neveda +11
Liberty +18
Georgia Southern +27.5 (Said buy to 28)
Mississippi +5.5
ECU +17

Leans
Boston College
Toledo
Pitt Umass
 

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Stanford Steve

8/31/19 Ohio State vs Florida Atlantic Over 63.5
8/31/19 Northwestern + 6.5 vs Stanford
8/31/19 Kentucky vs Toledo Under 61.5
8/31/19 Boston College + 5 vs Virginia Tech


Picks from Podcast

Stanford Steve

Wake -3.5
Boston college +5
Northwestern +6.5
Ohio st over 63.5
Kentucky under 61.5
small play on wake over 59.5

Chris Fallica (Bear)

Byu +6.5
Wake -3.5
Coastal Carolina +6.5
Georgia Southern +27.5

They also had a bunch of leans. got picks from the recap Steve does at end.
 

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Dave Cokin:

164 Nebraska -34
169 Ball State +17
181 South Carolina -7.5 (wait on this one to see if you can get -7, if not -7.5 is okay)
193 SMU +2.5
204 Pittsburgh +3

Do you know the 5% play?

Thanks
 

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+EV: CFB 4u: 185 Northwestern Wildcats +6.5 -105 (Saturday, August 31st)
 

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