On The Hop’s 2019-2020 NFL

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9/5/2019 (0-0, +0.00)

Chicago Bears -3 (-120), 1 unit:
A little frightening that this one seems so obvious. Clearly it isn’t. I expect the Packers to be better and their D to be greatly improved. This one comes down to two things for me. The first is a coaching advantage. Green Bay’s new HC may turn out to be a genius but right now I trust Nagy. I also believe that Pagano is not much of a drop off from Fangio. Second, Rodgers on the road puts up numbers but doesn’t put up wins as often. The Bears are going to stop having all the turnover luck but they’ll counteract some of that by their kicker not leaving so many points on the board. With an improved run game, a more experienced Trubisky and one of the best defenses in the league I’ll take the home team.
 

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9/8/2019 (0-1, -1.20)

Atlanta Falcons +4, 1 unit:
Falcons fixed their major problem via the draft, offensive line. Defense is healthy. Cousins not known for getting it done against good teams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1, 1 unit: Arians is going to be a difference maker for Jameis. First game back for Garoppolo who looked less than stellar during the preseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (+100), 1 unit: Jags were so bad last year and a lot of it can come back to Bortles. Having a QB who can move the ball and an allegedly motivated Fournette will help one of the best defenses in football not spend as much time on the field. Chiefs still have a ton of weapons. The number tells me a lot as well.

Indianapolis Colts +7 (-120), 1 unit:
This is a play against the Chargers. Horrible O Line, missing their best defensive player, missing Gordon. Colts have a solid O line and while the loss of Luck is huge, Brissett is not awful. Still no home field advantage for the Chargers.

Seattle Seahawks -2.5/Dallas Cowboys PK, 2 units
 

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Arizona Cardinals +3 (-115), 1 unit: My guess is Murray brings a few things that they didn't show in the preseason. I'm not backing Stafford on the road as a favorite and I believe the Lions game plan will play right into the hands of the Cardinals D.
 

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Hop.....BOL with all your action this season buddy....solid looking card...…..have a solid day...…….indy
 

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Added 1u to Tampa Bay but at a different number. Going to track this as a separate play.

​Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (-105), 1 unit
 

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9/9/2019 (3-7, -5.75)

No bad luck yesterday. Just bad picks and a lot of them. The turnaround begins tonight.

Houston Texans +7 (-115), 1 unit: I like what the Texans have done in the offseason. Upgrades all around on offense, especially the line. Texans finished strong and are traditionally a good road team. Will the defense struggle? Yes but the Saints have become more of a 5-7 yard and run passing team and that will help the Texans contain them. Brees is still amazing but the decline slowly started last season towards the end. Feels like a 3-4 point game to me.

Denver Broncos -3 (-105), 1 unit:
Missed the best number on this one. One of the best defenses in football just got better with a new head coach. Flacco is a massive upgrade. 17 points should be enough for the Broncos to win. I just don't see how the Raiders score.
 

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9/15/2019 (4-8, -5.85)

Strange week for me with a lot of favorites.

Tennessee Titans -3 (-120), 1 unit:
Tough to ask the Colts to travel back to back weeks to each coast. Titans D looked great last week and I think points are hard to come by for Indy in this one.

Green Bay Packers -2.5 (-120), 1 unit: Packers with extra rest. Their D looked excellent against a good Bears offense. Cousins on the road in big games has not been a winning formula.

Los Angeles Rams -2, 1 unit: Saints played Monday night and now have to travel across the country. Revenge angle is overrated. Rams want to prove victory was no fluke just as badly. Goff started slow last week having not played in the pre-season but got better as the game went on.

Chicago Bears -2.5, 1 unit: Got a bad number here thinking it would go to 3. Short week for Broncos, extra rest for Bears. Yes, Fangio knows the Chicago offense but that also means Nagy knows the Denver defense.

Atlanta Falcons +2, 1 unit:
Eagles allowed a lot of yards and points to a mediocre Redskins team. Falcons and Matt Ryan a different team at home. Wentz generally not as good on the road. Almost feels "must have" for Atlanta.

New York Giants +9/Houston Texans -1.5, 1 unit
 

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9/16/2019 (7-12, -7.35)

Cleveland Browns -6.5 (-115), 1 unit: Square, obvious, one sided. Yes to all of those. It's not so much the Darnold injury as it is the rest of the Jets injuries. If you believe the Browns can clean up the mistakes from Week 1: penalties and turnovers and play slightly more disciplined then the Browns are the play.
 

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9/19/2019 (8-12, -6.35)

Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5, 1 unit:
If the Titans hadn't blown out Cleveland would they be favored? Looking closely at that game they were outgained and won because of turnovers and penalties. They came back to Earth last week at home against Indy and now have to hit the road on a short week to play a desperate team with revenge on their mind. I like what Minshew brings to this offense and that he led the Jaguars on essentially a game tying drive last week until his coach decided to go for the win. Some think Ramsey is going to mail it in. I think he's going to give all he has to try to force other teams to up their trade bids. Love the home teams on a short week.
 

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Nice insights. Both defenses > than the offenses so pts will be scarce too.
 

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Thanks indy & jgm...appreciate the kind words.

9/22/2019 (9-12, -5.35)

Baltimore Ravens +6 (-120), 1 unit: Really impressed with the Ravens this year. Always good on D but the O is now legitimate. Look for Baltimore to keep the KC offense off the field by controlling the clock with the run.
Indianapolis Colts -1.5, 1 unit: Falcons are a very different team on the road versus at home. Colts are a few missed kicks from 2-0 with both on the road. Falcons lucky to survive last week.
New Orleans Saints +4.5, 1 unit: Bridgewater can manage and Hill will give a different look. Not impressed with anything I've seen from Seattle, squeaking by Cincy and beating Pitt w/out Big Ben.
Houston Texans +3 (+100), 1 unit: Watson and the Texans on the road have been better than Watson and the Texans at home. Chargers offense with a ton of injuries and will struggle to score.
Pittsburgh Steelers +7 (-115), 1 unit: Really like the Niners but this number is a huge over reaction to the QB situation. Steelers still believe they can win or they don't trade for Fitzpatrick. They'll slow it down, grind it out. Too many points to give in this one.
 

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