BIG's 2019-2020 Season

Short write-up below my plays. If I have extra time to write-up I do, if I don't I don't. Simple as that! Best of luck to all of you. Football season is finally here :toast:


Thursday


GB +3 W +1 unit


Sunday


PHI -3, SEA -2.5 (-140) 7 pt. tease (+2 units)

BALT -7 (+1 unit)

BALT -0.5, DAL -1 (-130) 6.5 pt. tease (+2 units)

CLE 0, NE 0 (-120) 6 pt. tease (+1 unit)

NE under 50 (+1 unit)



This year I'm changing my strategy for weeks 1 and 2. It's just so hard to get a feel for teams in the pre-season when people are sitting starters / trying not to get hurt. I'll be playing more teasers in these weeks and adopting more of a defensive / cautious attitude toward the games until I can get a better feel for the teams. Last year was rough for me - ended up down a small amount. A combination of lazy capping, bad capping, and a lot of bad luck. Going back to what I was doing the 3 years prior to last when I was able to come out with winning seasons.

For me PHI and SEA are in the same boat. The line is a little too high for me but I think there's a very low chance of either of them losing the game = tease.

I'm big on Balt, especially against a fins team who is in total rebuild mode (traded us Tunsil, I'm in Houston now). I would be surprised to see Fitzy come out in one piece now that he will have no protection from his LT. I don't see Miami being able to stop the run either, so I see it giving Miami a lot of trouble. Teams have had trouble game planning against it in the past and I expect no different from Miami.

Dallas is going to be firing on all cylinders with Zeke back. I think they are a dark horse SB contender this year fully healthy. Love teasing them down.

CLE 0, NE 0 6 pt. tease. Basically combining any team with NE in a teaser has been a winning strategy in the Brady-Belichick era for years and years. I don't expect NE to lose their first game at home - Gillete is one of the toughest places to play combined with Ben not playing great as a road QB. I also am buying in to the hype with CLE somewhat. They are just too talented of a team to not come out guns blazing for their first game at home and I'm huge on Baker Mayfield. I think he's got a winners attitude and a lot of talent to go along with it.

NE under 50 because this defense is very much improved. Steelers defense is also very good. I think NE is gonna take away Juju and look to run the ball more with Gronk out. Steelers just dont score a lot of points on the road - looking at you Ben. Easy under for me.

BOL RX'ers!

Brady/G..........BOL with your action today buddy.......indy

indiana said:

Brady/G..........BOL with your action today buddy.......indy

Click to expand...

Thanks Indy. Best of luck to you too man.

Good info, much appreciated!

Serbone said:

Good info, much appreciated!

Click to expand...

Best of luck to you this year Mr.Serbone. Always enjoy hearing your insights as well. Cheers.

Good luck B!

VenomousSanction said:

Good luck B!

Click to expand...

Thanks a lot Venom. Best of luck with your season this year! Bottoms up.

Adding DAL -1, NE ML, 2 team 6pt. teaser (+2 units)

PHI -3, SEA -2.5 (-140) 7 pt. tease (+2 units) L

BALT -7 (+1 unit) W

BALT -0.5, DAL -1 (-130) 6.5 pt. tease (+2 units) W

CLE 0, NE 0 (-120) 6 pt. tease (+1 unit) L

NE under 50 (+1 unit) W

DAL -1, NE ML, 2 team 6pt. teaser (+2 units) W


Sunday Record: 4-2 +3 units

Season Record: 5-2 +4 units



I was never really on the Browns train which was why I teased them down. But it seems like that was even giving them too much credit. Huge problems on defense AND offense so they cannot be trusted going forward. Yes, it was only one game but that one game showed me everything I needed to know. The last few years I've been proud of myself for avoiding the Browns and they finally got me for a bet. Lesson learned. Seattle also disappointing. Out of all the teams I played, aside from the Patriots, I figured they were a for sure lock to cover. I might have a play or two for tonight.

Best of luck RX'ers.

MNF

NO -0.5, Denver +3.5 (-130) 6.5 pt teaser +1 unit
NO ML (-300) + 1 unit

For betting both spreads: lean Texans getting the points, but not buying into the hype. The rationale is that if Denver was +3.5 I would be jumping all over it. I (most of us) simply just jumped on this too late here when it opened at +3. I would say most of the value is gone now, still a slight lean to Denver -3 if I had a gun to my head. I can get NO at -0.5 and slightly better than the opening Denver line +3.5 for -130? Taking that every day of the week.

If you acted late like I did just tease this one with a game next week (best) or the night game if you want action like me and you'll have two really nice bets.

But wait! NO is 1-9 in their first two weeks of play in the past 5 years! That stat is meaningless without context. Let me explain further:

1) This is a prime time game. Drew Brees on prime time = electric (usually). This was omitted.
2) This is a home game. Drew Brees in the dome ON prime time? Synergistic effect. Enough said
3) They are playing the Texans who are traditionally NOT a good road team. We are actually pitiful on the road.
4) You cant compare stats from the Saints team 5 years ago to the Saints team of today. This exact same team minus Ingram (they still have Kamara) almost went to the SB last year and was the same team that many good cappers had WINNING the SB.
5) Don't buy into the Texans hype. Similar to the Browns, I'm going to make them prove it to me first before I buy the kool aid. The Texans have won like one playoff game (maybe two but someone can fact check me here), ever. Basically it's been so few games that I can't even remember winning one.
6) Texans are worse on defense than last year. Still have no secondary and now we are worse against the rush. NO's defense against the rush was no. 2 last year in the entire NFL. BOB loves to run the ball first, pass second. This is bad news for the Texans in 2019 unless Hyde and Duke can step up.
7) As long as Bill O'Brien is our coach, I'm not betting on the Texans to take games off very good - great teams. If I can't see them winning outright, I'm not betting on them to cover the spread. Period.
8) That few of games, without context, but just 10 games in general, is an incredibly small sample size that should be taken with a grain of salt.

Texans might cover, but I think you're just rolling the dice here. If you want to bet the Texans spread there are simply just better games this week to pick from. So if you do bet the Texans spread, bet pizza money on it sit back and enjoy the game. I've been wrong before but I think there's a fair chance Brees just blows us out. A good chance that we have a closer type game but still don't cover (thinking 40 something to 20 something), and a medium to low chance that Texans cover the number or pull off a road upset (lol?). I don't expect the Texans to win, but being in Houston I'd sure love to be wrong here and take one off NO in the dome on prime time. Wishful thinking maybe.

These are just my opinions. None of us have a crystal ball so don't go betting your house on it. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. I'm going to continue playing the first two weeks safe and yes that means lots of teasers.

BOL RX'ers!

love the info - - all the best this season ... BIG

Recon792 said:

love the info - - all the best this season ... BIG

Click to expand...

Best of luck to you on your 2019 season Recon!

Well, that didn't pan out the way I thought it would. Texans really surprised me, we almost never play good on the road against good teams. For once we finally do. And never expected Denver to go an entire first half without scoring one point vs OAK's 2018 last place (or second? it was bad) defense. Also expected them to light up Carr with both starting guards out but that didn't happen either.

Expect the unexpected. Was lucky to come out with a win on the Saints game, almost got backdoored there. Should have stayed away from the Denver/Oak game and also teased the Saints with a better candidate like I said in my original post.

What an excellent game to watch on our first Monday night. Cheers.

TNF

CAR -7 (even) +1 unit


Stay away from this one unless you need action on Thursday. Small play on CAR - not a strong play for me. Last year they blew out TB at home by 14 points. I expect no different this year. Typical TNF strategy for me is to play the home team ATS. Love backing teams coming off a loss. Prime time + home is an added benefit for CAR's defense and also should help Cam. I have no faith in the Bucs this year, especially Winston who just seems to play well sporadically - hoping TNF is not one of those random good games for him. Even though TB is coming off a loss as well, they are on the road and I cannot trust them with my money. 81% of the sharps are on CAR -7 for 65% of the tickets. So that does help a little bit - although I wouldn't put too much stock into this. The public is also on CAR for 65% fyi.

As a fellow Texans who loves the team but can't stand BO, you are correct on all accounts especially the coach. Watson may have saved his career but I think in turn BO will ruin his. Hopefully Watson will not go down as Luck did. But I have to disagree about we're not a good road team, at least since Watson arrived. We have not lost a game that Watson started by more than 7 if I'm not mistaken. And yes we lost various in last minute due to BO's idiocracy

PeePee said:

As a fellow Texans who loves the team but can't stand BO, you are correct on all accounts especially the coach. Watson may have saved his career but I think in turn BO will ruin his. Hopefully Watson will not go down as Luck did. But I have to disagree about we're not a good road team, at least since Watson arrived. We have not lost a game that Watson started by more than 7 if I'm not mistaken. And yes we lost various in last minute due to BO's idiocracy

Click to expand...

Yeah it sucks. BOB is an idiot. Hopefully we have a solid post season run for once. Cheers!

2017: 3 away games, 1-2 barely beating Bengals but barely losing to NE and SEA
2018: 8 away games, 5-3 beating jets, broncos, indy, denver and wash. A couple coinflip wins there as well, nothing by more than a few points against average/below average teams. Indy being the best of the bunch. Again, barely losing eagles, by a touchdown to pats, and the titans.
2019: 1 away game barely losing to the Saints

Total: 6-6

I'd agree that with Watson it's a lot better than the past 16 years with the Texans where we didn't travel well. I still don't think we travel all that well because we still haven't taken one game off a good team on the road since Watson has been QB. I'd say Indy was the only one that might qualify as a good team last year. With such a small sample size on Watson, I have to look at the rest of the Texans as a team. We just don't win against good/very good teams on the road and I considered Saints pretty good. When I say a team travels well, I'm talking teams like the Cowboys who have beaten good/very good teams on the road (they have a positive road record). But when it's all said and done 6-6 isn't all that bad. So under Deshawn we are alright on the road. The Texans still play a lot better at home than they do on the road. I think most teams do, but some are actually pretty great road teams.

What I really should have typed was that we aren't known for taking games off good teams on the road. That was one of the angles of the Saints ML. I actually posted that I was leaning Texas +7 if I were going to take the spread (alluding to your point that Watson plays good teams close on the road). That would have been a good angle to take the Texans +7.

As for ML bets, no way I'm betting Texans on the road. Like you said, BOB cannot be trusted to make game time decisions especially with clock and timeout management, personnel, all of it. He's one of the worst and we lost once again because of poor coaching (this time Romeo Crennel, but could BOB have said something? Maybe, probably).

PeePee said:

As a fellow Texans who loves the team but can't stand BO, you are correct on all accounts especially the coach. Watson may have saved his career but I think in turn BO will ruin his. Hopefully Watson will not go down as Luck did. But I have to disagree about we're not a good road team, at least since Watson arrived. We have not lost a game that Watson started by more than 7 if I'm not mistaken. And yes we lost various in last minute due to BO's idiocracy

Click to expand...

Also good luck on your season this year PeePee. Let's hope our Texans can do something.

Don't usually use TV to help me handicap a game, already had CAR -7 tonight anyways, but this one fell into my lap for TNF on Get Up this morning. I knew basic strategy for me was to take home favorites on TNF, see my above handicap on -7 Carolina. I remember this stat being good but not this good.


Week 2 Home Teams on TNF Last 14 games
11-1-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 15 points.


Week 2 Home Teams on TNF Last 27 games
20-5-2 ATS


Home favorites of at least 6 points or higher the past 3 seasons
11-1-1 ATS


Average Margin of victory last season for TNF
14 points with a stretch of those games winning by 21, 35, 19, 31 and 31 points consecutively.


And now that I jinxed us with the second greatest stat in the NFL aside from Belichick covering 60% ATS as head coach of NE over a huge sample, everyone can freely bet on Tampa Bay and win some easy money. Just kidding. I have no idea what's going to happen game to game in the NFL but these stats despite the small sample look pretty damn promising.

Adding CAR ML (-310) +4.5 units to win +1.5 units
ML trends: Ron Rivera is 36-11 as a home favorite while coaching Carolina. Been covering 77% in this spot.

Also played CAR -7 (even) ​+1 unit

BOL

Best of luck

Hache Man said:

Best of luck

Click to expand...

Best of lucky with your plays tonight Hache!