I am HUGE (6-5 YTD ATS 55%) Week 3 picks and analysis

iamhuge · Sep 8, 2019

MICHIGAN STATE -12 Arizona State

I’m going to go out and get me some Sparty! The Michigan State defense is really playing off the hook only giving up 12 points per game against two teams (Tulsa and Western Michigan) whose combined average offense was 28 points per game. In two games combined, the Spartans have given up -6 yards rushing. That’s right, you cannot run against this team. So in comes Arizona State who plays in the candy ass Pac 12. Their claim to fame is that they like to run the ball. The problem with that is, even though they say that they like to run the ball, they haven’t really been able to do so. They are only averaging 3.1 yards per carry against the likes of Kent State and an FCS team, CS Sacramento. Against Sacramento, ASU led just 3-0 with just 78 total yards at halftime. Eno Benjamin, the Sun Devil’s star running back, Benjamin, ran for just 27 yards on 13 attempts against MSU last year. So I got news for you…the Sun Devils aren’t going to be able to run the ball against Michigan State. You know what happens when you go on the road and you can’t run the ball? You lose.

I think most people know that Sparty is going to win this game. But can they cover the 12 points? Well, they beat Tulsa by 21 and Western Michigan by 34 and both of those teams are much better than the two teams that Arizona State has played this year. With Arizona State averaging 25 points per game against these two cream puffs, it’s hard to see them scoring more than 14 points against Sparty. So can Michigan State score 27 points against the Sun Devils? They were able to do it in their first two games and they put up 582 yards of offense last week. I think their defense will give them a lot of possessions to cash in on points. The motivation is huge. Michigan State wants to avenge their loss from last year, which knocked their season off the rails. MSU has this circled as a big game. I have it circled as the pay window. Laying the 12 points on the Spartans!

iamhuge · Sep 9, 2019

Colorado state +10 ARKANSAS

Want to know who the best football team in Arkansas is? Guess what, it’s not Arkansas….it’s Arkansas State. Now if Colorado State was getting 10 points against Arkansas State, would you be all over it? That’s my point. Don’t let the fact that Arkansas is in the SEC fool you. The Hogs are not playing well right now. They opened the season against Portland State, an FCS team rated much lower than Colorado State. The Razorbacks only won this game by 7 points, and Portland State coughed up the ball 3 times and had 10 penalties. The Arkansas QB can’t hit the side of a barn, going 18-35 against this FCS team that came across the country to get paid in a body bag game. Then they went to Ole Siss and got sissed on 31-17. That’s right, Arkansas is only averaging 18.5 points per game and you are asking them to cover this game by 10.

On the other side, the CSU Rams were able to put up 31 points against Colorado in week 1. The same Colorado team that won at Nebraska last week. Against the Buffaloes, the Rams had 500 yards of offense. The only reason that they lost that game was because they were -4 on turnovers. Had the turnovers been even, they would have scored even more points and probably would have won the game. Last week, the Rams bounced right back playing an FCS team, Western Illinois, that is better than the FCS team that Arkansas squeaked by. Colorado State won that game 38-13, with 582 yards of offense (and 440 yards in the first half – they could have made the game much worse).

There is too much offense on this live dog and taking the 10 points against a team that hasn’t done anything yet is easy peasy. The back door cover will always be in play with the Rams passing attack. I am taking the 10 points and the road dog Rams.

Kaboom · Sep 9, 2019

iamhuge said:
Colorado state +10 ARKANSAS

Want to know who the best football team in Arkansas is? Guess what, it’s not Arkansas….it’s Arkansas State. Now if Colorado State was getting 10 points against Arkansas State, would you be all over it? That’s my point. Don’t let the fact that Arkansas is in the SEC fool you. The Hogs are not playing well right now. They opened the season against Portland State, an FCS team rated much lower than Colorado State. The Razorbacks only won this game by 7 points, and Portland State coughed up the ball 3 times and had 10 penalties. The Arkansas QB can’t hit the side of a barn, going 18-35 against this FCS team that came across the country to get paid in a body bag game. Then they went to Ole Siss and got sissed on 31-17. That’s right, Arkansas is only averaging 18.5 points per game and you are asking them to cover this game by 10.

On the other side, the CSU Rams were able to put up 31 points against Colorado in week 1. The same Colorado team that won at Nebraska last week. Against the Buffaloes, the Rams had 500 yards of offense. The only reason that they lost that game was because they were -4 on turnovers. Had the turnovers been even, they would have scored even more points and probably would have won the game. Last week, the Rams bounced right back playing an FCS team, Western Illinois, that is better than the FCS team that Arkansas squeaked by. Colorado State won that game 38-13, with 582 yards of offense (and 440 yards in the first half – they could have made the game much worse).

There is too much offense on this live dog and taking the 10 points against a team that hasn’t done anything yet is easy peasy. The back door cover will always be in play with the Rams passing attack. I am taking the 10 points and the road dog Rams.

Outstanding write-ups bud ... I'm already on Sparty but now I will be on Colo St as well ....

Thx for posting

TimmyRules · Sep 9, 2019

Arkansas most likely starting Starkel over Hicks so don’t base your pick solely on how awful Hicks performed in his 1st two games....

iamhuge · Sep 9, 2019

Timmy Rules said:
Arkansas most likely starting Starkel over Hicks so don’t base your pick solely on how awful Hicks performed in his 1st two games....

You make a good point, but the JV guy who couldn't beat out Hicks in camp still has to cover 10 points for me to lose this bet.

Kaboom · Sep 9, 2019

iamhuge said:
You make a good point, but the JV guy who couldn't beat out Hicks in camp still has to cover 10 points for me to lose this bet.

Bingo !!

iamhuge · Sep 9, 2019

iowa +1 IOWA STATE

It’s always fun to watch these games with the +1 lines. You can drink a million beers and watch the game and don’t have to worry about all the arithmetic to see if you are going to cover or not. Like Al Davis said, “Just win, baby”. When Iowa plays Iowa State, they usually win. When they play in Ames, the Hawkeyes still win. Iowa has won in Ames 4 of the last 5 times the game was played there – so forget about being afraid of taking the road team.

The Cyclones came into this season with a lot of hype but so far this year they have fudged their duds. I’m not even going to get into the fact that their mascot is stupid. It’s a bird dressed up as a tornado…..much like the Iowa State offense, it doesn’t make any sense. Anyway, Iowa State had one home game this year and they were not impressive. They barely survived, winning in triple overtime against FCS Northern Iowa. This week Iowa State’s starting center and running back are banged up. There is zero evidence that Iowa State is the better team than Iowa. In fact all of the evidence is to the contrary.

Iowa looks to be better than they were last year, and they throttled Iowa State 13-3 in last year’s tilt. Iowa has won big in its two contests this year averaging 34 points per game and only giving up 7. They held Rutgers to only 125 yards and shut them out, a week after Rutgers scored 48 points. Both of the teams that Iowa defeated this season have won convincingly in their other game played.

The Cyclones do have a good run defense, but Iowa and QB Nate Stanley (63.8 completion percentage and six passing touchdowns to zero interceptions) have shown that they can move the ball through the air. The Iowa State offense is really going to be tested against the rough and ready Iowa Big 10 defense. I’m not drinking the Iowa State koolaid…at least not in this game. I’m on the Hawkeyes for the outright win.

pathologist · Sep 9, 2019

Candy ass Pac 12, haha

iamhuge · Sep 10, 2019

tcu – 1 ½ PURDUE

You know it really wasn’t that long ago that TCU had a vicious defense, was playing in a New Year’s Day Bowl game and was making a case to get into the College Football Playoff. You know it really wasn’t that long ago that Purdue was, well, Purdue. This game opened with Purdue as the slight favorite and then moved quickly to TCU giving a small number. Purdue starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar has been diagnosed with a concussion. Sindelar went to the team's medical tent Saturday after the Boilermakers' final offensive play, his 7-yard run on third-and-14 during a 42-24 victory over Vanderbilt. His status is questionable. So either his backup is going to play, or he’s going to play but won’t be 100%. He leads the nation with 932 yards passing and has 11 carries for 36 yards. The Big Ten named Sindelar its offensive player of the week after he was 34 of 52 with a career high 509 yards. So whether or not he plays is a big deal, right? Well, let’s not go blowing this guy in Macy’s window just yet. He had a big day against Nevada, a team that lost 77-6 to Oregon last week. Oh by the way, Purdue lost that game to the Wolf Pack. So if Sindelar doesn’t play, Purdue will be starting a freshman at quarterback. Purdue is averaging 63 yards rushing. That’s not a very good way to move the chains if they have a freshman at QB.

So TCU is sitting there going…what are we, wood? TCU had the Big 12's top-ranked defense and pass defense and the second-best scoring defense last year. They only gave up 7 points in their first game. Not much will change this year. The Froggies play defense. While Purdue’s “explosive” offense may make the little girls squeal when they play Vandy and Nevada, it’s not going to hold up against Gary Patterson’s defense which is built to stop the likes of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas Tech who play the same kind of touch football that Purdue is trying to play.

Purdue is getting a lot of mileage out of their upset win over Ohio State last year but maybe people forgot that they also lost to Eastern Michigan as well as Auburn by 49 and Minnesota by 31. TCU is going to put up a lot of points in this game, and they are going to get after Purdue’s quarterback, whoever it may be. I like the road frogs in this game.

VegasKnows · Sep 10, 2019

TCU looks like a best bet of the week to me.

Two Big Ten West teams overrated all summer are Nebraska and Purdue. Purdue had to replace to many starters, Nebraska just doesn't have the players on defense.

GL

iamhuge · Sep 10, 2019

maryland -7 TEMPLE

Oh God my head is going to explode. All of the contrarian handicappers on here with their “trap game”, “hangover game”, “sandwich game”, “road game”…yada yada yada…stop boring me and be quiet with that crap. Maryland beat the pee pee out of Syracuse last week by the score of 63-20. They scored 63 points with 650 yards of offense. They ran the ball for 350 yards and 7.9 yards per carry. The Terps were 8-for-9 on third-down conversions in the opening half, and were 11-for-15 for the game. I don’t care who you play against, you don’t do that by accident. Holy Crow.

And what of the Temple Owls? For one thing, they aren’t as good as Syracuse. Temple has only played one game. They are 1-0 and beat Bucknell (ranked #118 in the FCS) by the same score that Maryland beat Syracuse. So essentially they have zero body of work to show us. All I know about Temple is that they lost 5 offensive starters from a team that lost to Villanova, Buffalo and Duke last year. Their defense allowed 27 points per game last year. Somehow I don’t see them slowing down Maryland’s offense. Temple decided to beat Bucknell through the air, with over 500 yards passing against their hapless opponent, but Maryland has 12 sacks on the year and they put the heat on the Syracuse QB all day. If Temple wants to throw the ball, it’s likely they’ll throw at least 2 picks with the QB pressures being put on them.

Worried about being on the road? Temple drew 26,000 fans to their first game. It’s highly likely that there will be more Terp fans in the stadium traveling up I-95 to the Linc to watch the Turtle smoke the Owls. Maryland’s coach said, “I think you see the biggest jump between Game 2 and Game 3.” If that’s true, it doesn’t really matter if they play the Temple Owls or go to temple on Saturday to worship. Just take it at face value. It’s a runaway cover. Turtle power!

iamhuge · Sep 11, 2019

kansas state +7 ½ MISSISSIPPI ST

Bill Snyder has come and gone but now the Wildcats have Chris Klieman who was the insanely successful coach who won 4 championships at North Dakota State in 5 years. Is the guy a good coach? Hell yeah. We haven’t had much to look at to assess whether or not K State can go to Mississippi and beat the Bulldogs. Normally, I drink all of the SEC koolaid that you’re selling but a couple of things are going on that lead me to believe that K State will cover this contest.
First of all, the Wildcats are averaging 50.5 points. That’s a lot of offense when you’re looking for a back door cover. Granted that was against the likes of FCS Nicholls State and Soylent Green. But Nicholls is ranked near the top 20 of the FCS division schools and would most likely give Louisiana – Lafayette, who Miss St only beat by 10, a really good game. Also – K State pitched a shutout against Soylent Green, winning 52-0 and giving up only 140 yards and 5 first downs to the Falcons. That fact is meaningful to me. It means that this new coach has K State playing hard and giving no quarter to their opponents.

Turning to Mississippi State, I refer back to the Louisiana Lafayette game. The Ragin Cajuns had 430 yards of offense in that game and put up 28 points, despite turning the ball over 4 times to the Bulldogs. I watched that game and it just seemed like the Bulldogs defense was lazy and a step out of place. It certainly was not the woof woof type of defense that gets the cowbells clanging. One more thing..Mississippi State star QB Tommy Stevens, if he plays at all, has a bruised throwing shoulder. It’s likely we’ll see one of the freshmen play in his place or maybe Junior Keytaon Thompson who has now been back with the team for an entire week. He spent the previous nine days in the transfer portal after losing the starting job to Stevens. That sounds like a lot of turmoil to me. The Bulldogs have a conference tilt with Kentucky next week…do they really want to risk Stevens in this game and have him run around or stand up in the pocket waiting on deep patterns to open up?

I have a lot of reasons to like Kansas State in this game, and at least 7 and a half reasons to put my money on them. Go Cats!

stretchrunner147 · Sep 11, 2019

@ iamhuge......you have great reasoning behind your picks....are you a salesman in your day job?

iamhuge · Sep 11, 2019

stretchrunner147 said:
@ iamhuge......you have great reasoning behind your picks....are you a salesman in your day job?

thanks...but more importantly do you like any of those games?

stretchrunner147 · Sep 11, 2019

iamhuge said:
thanks...but more importantly do you like any of those games?

Love the Iowa / iowa st game 1st 1/2 under 21 1/2........ Love Maryland ...because you never step in front of a Train........purdue and Mighn st...i Never bet big 10.....Just don't trust Colrdo st'd Def......wish you well sir

indiana · Sep 11, 2019

Huge.....great write ups and solid looking card buddy.........BOL with your action.......indy

iamhuge · Sep 11, 2019

clemson -26 ½ SYRACUSE

My oh My that’s a lot of points to give for a road game. But wait a minute….this is the Clemson Tigers, Dabbo and Sunshine at QB and this game is going to be over at halftime. The Orange faithful will be back in their dorm rooms drinking their Genee creams as the wallow in what is now a forlorn and lost season after the complete beatdown handed to them last week by Maryland. There is no coming back from that. They aren’t confident at all going into this week. Their offense isn’t what it once was and the smothering Clemson defense isn’t going to do anything restore anyone’s confidence.

Syracuse is averaging 22 points per game against the likes of Liberty and Maryland. That means it will be a miracle if they score more than 13 against Clemson’s defense which is only giving up 12 points per game. Heck, Texas A&M with their potent offense only scored 10 against Clemson. Syracuse’s offensive line is a hot mess with their starting center out and moving their players around like chess pieces. It’s not easy to block with confidence when you don’t know who your man is. The fact that the ‘Cuse can’t go “next man up” on the offensive line means they may not have the depth at all at these positions. I’m not sure I’d want to be QB Tommy Devito facing that Clemson pass rush. Nor would I want to be a Syracuse running back after seeing Clemson hold Texas A&M to 53 yards rushing on 28 carries last week. On the other side of the ball, Sunshine has to make up for some lacking stats after only scoring 24 against A&M. To cover this spread, Clemson will need to score 40. Let’s see…Maryland scored how many against the ‘Cuse? Six….teee…..threee?

Clemson’s offense is better than they were last year. No doubt about it. Just from a personnel and experience standpoint, it’s clear. Etienne is going to be able to run for as many yards as he want against this suspiciously weak Syracuse defense. Clemson covered this 26 ½ point spread in 10 of the 15 games they played last year. Sunshine is going to make Syracuse pay for almost decapitating him last year. Next week is essentially a week off against Charlotte and this is a conference game. This is, no doubt, time for a statement game out of Clemson. They’ll be up by 20 at the half with that prideful defense preventing any kind of backdoor cover risk.

solrosenberg · Sep 11, 2019

Agree with you on Maryland.
Wouldn't touch Kansas State here.
GL

stretchrunner147 · Sep 12, 2019

@ iamhuge....wasn't Lawrence hurt in a game against Syracuse last year?.......I think this is a huge revenge game...last 2 years Syracuse has led at halftime....I think clemson has this game circled....

iamhuge · Sep 12, 2019

stretchrunner147 said:
@ iamhuge....wasn't Lawrence hurt in a game against Syracuse last year?.......I think this is a huge revenge game...last 2 years Syracuse has led at halftime....I think clemson has this game circled....

Yes...Sunshine nearly had his head handed to him on the sideline - literally. Plus, if he wants to stay in the Heisman race, he'll need a 5 TD day. Circled is correct.