Week 3: Small Plays Killing Me

ofred · Sep 10, 2019

2-2 on the large plays, a 5-2-1 YTD on them- but I can't justify the smaller plays anymore. It's almost like handicapping to lose. A couple of plays weren't even close.
YTD: 10-17, -2.05 units

2* BC -21
2* BC 1H -12 or -13 ? Whenever the 1st half line appears at one of my books, I'll be on it. Pinnacle has it at 11.5, but I doubt that it'll be that low. Maybe Wednesday. If it is more than 14, no bet.

Never mind that Kansas lost at home to Coastal Carolina, and squeaked by Indiana State (a Middling FCS team that out-gained Kansas, and only a late 4th qtr. TD gave KU the win). It's the folks who witnessed these 2 games that make me think BC will romp. Viewers noticed how KU lacked size and were less physical than CC, that their QB has terrible pocket presence, decision-making, and an OL that doesn't pick up the blitz well. That QB Carter Stanley seems to lack leadership qualities. Kansas actually recruited fairly well last season, but right now, they have no offense. This is good for BC since they are rebuilding a defense that was pretty good last year. BC did hold VT to 2.3 ypc in Game One so it seems the run D is there. And since Kansas doesn't present a viable passing offense, BC should be okay.

This could be a boys against men scenario especially when BC has the ball. BC has a large, physical OL that should push around the KU D-Line, and a good blend of run game and passing game. BC will struggle vs. the better ACC teams, but at home, they seem to play better, and seem to play well first halves. Both BC RBs, Dillon and Bailey, are difficult to tackle, and QB Anthony Brown, is a dual threat while being okay as a passer, but has improved with experience. BC romps on a team that is FBS in name only.

indiana · Sep 11, 2019

Fred......you're a solid capper, you will figure it out........appreciate your early thought's, wil be following.......BOL with all your action.......indy

Kaboom · Sep 11, 2019

Dude ...by far the best write-up guy at RX ...Thx for posting .... BOL TW!

pistol495 · Sep 11, 2019

One thing that will support this play is KUs D could get real tired against those big bodies after being on the field for 35 minutes against CC. Not the O-Line you want to see after that kind of week. Perhaps supports the play on the game more so than the half but I believe youre on target here.

BOL,
Pistol

ofred · Sep 11, 2019

o fred said:
2-2 on the large plays, a 5-2-1 YTD on them- but I can't justify the smaller plays anymore. It's almost like handicapping to lose. A couple of plays weren't even close.
YTD: 10-17, -2.05 units

2* BC -21
2* BC 1H -12 or -13 ? Whenever the 1st half line appears at one of my books, I'll be on it. Pinnacle has it at 11.5, but I doubt that it'll be that low. Maybe Wednesday. If it is more than 14, no bet.

Never mind that Kansas lost at home to Coastal Carolina, and squeaked by Indiana State (a Middling FCS team that out-gained Kansas, and only a late 4th qtr. TD gave KU the win). It's the folks who witnessed these 2 games that make me think BC will romp. Viewers noticed how KU lacked size and were less physical than CC, that their QB has terrible pocket presence, decision-making, and an OL that doesn't pick up the blitz well. That QB Carter Stanley seems to lack leadership qualities. Kansas actually recruited fairly well last season, but right now, they have no offense. This is good for BC since they are rebuilding a defense that was pretty good last year. BC did hold VT to 2.3 ypc in Game One so it seems the run D is there. And since Kansas doesn't present a viable passing offense, BC should be okay.

This could be a boys against men scenario especially when BC has the ball. BC has a large, physical OL that should push around the KU D-Line, and a good blend of run game and passing game. BC will struggle vs. the better ACC teams, but at home, they seem to play better, and seem to play well first halves. Both BC RBs, Dillon and Bailey, are difficult to tackle, and QB Anthony Brown, is a dual threat while being okay as a passer, but has improved with experience. BC romps on a team that is FBS in name only.

BC -11.5 1H The line is better than expected. Other notes: Coastal Carolina, the team that held Kansas to 7 points and 280 yards of offense, is a team loaded with freshman. Kansas' week one opponent, Indiana St, lost to Dayton. Les Miles and his OC seem to be play-calling from an old, stale playbook of 30 years ago. Maybe it's the OL and QB, and the lack of confidence in them, but I doubt things go any better on the road at BC, where there will be a loud, excitable Friday night crowd- for the possibility of a 3-0 start.

ofred · Sep 11, 2019

5* Georgia 1H -20.5 Under Kirby Smart, Georgia has not had a problem getting up for these lesser teams, and usually come out sharp from the get go. MTSU, UMass, Austin Peay, even Georgia Tech- all 1st half blowouts in 2018. Appalachian State the year before. Arkansas State has been a pretty good Sunbelt team that has been dominated by teams like Georgia in recent years. Maybe HC Blake Anderson is more interested in staying healthy for upcoming conference games, which usually go well enough to earn a bowl spot. But after watching Arkansas St. the last few years, there is just a huge drop off of talent from teams as loaded and skilled as Georgia. Their OL has been their Achilles Heel in recent seasons, and I think it'll be that way this year vs. the quality teams. Georgia might actually have one of their better defensive teams in recent years. It's too early to tell, but so far, they look extremely good. I also like that ASU QB, Logan Bonner, is a pocket passer that has played two awful defenses so far, and will be tough to protect here vs. a quick DL and LB corps.

ofred · Sep 12, 2019

o fred said:
5* Georgia 1H -20.5 Under Kirby Smart, Georgia has not had a problem getting up for these lesser teams, and usually come out sharp from the get go. MTSU, UMass, Austin Peay, even Georgia Tech- all 1st half blowouts in 2018. Appalachian State the year before. Arkansas State has been a pretty good Sunbelt team that has been dominated by teams like Georgia in recent years. Maybe HC Blake Anderson is more interested in staying healthy for upcoming conference games, which usually go well enough to earn a bowl spot. But after watching Arkansas St. the last few years, there is just a huge drop off of talent from teams as loaded and skilled as Georgia. Their OL has been their Achilles Heel in recent seasons, and I think it'll be that way this year vs. the quality teams. Georgia might actually have one of their better defensive teams in recent years. It's too early to tell, but so far, they look extremely good. I also like that ASU QB, Logan Bonner, is a pocket passer that has played two awful defenses so far, and will be tough to protect here vs. a quick DL and LB corps.

Taking the 1st half, as Smart often yanks his starters for much of the 2nd half, and sometimes Georgia doesn't cover the game spread. Also of note is that Smart's Georgia teams have not suffered from the "look ahead" when facing these underdogs- so Notre Dame on deck, in my opinion, not a factor. Georgia's OL possibly the best in the SEC, but the WRs are young, talented and inexperienced. Luckily, their running game is so prolific, and with Fromm being a very good QB, the pressure is off for them to win games vs. teams like ASU.

ofred · Sep 12, 2019

5* Virginia -7 (-120) Going back a few years, FSU has not performed well coming off disappointing games. Especially on the road. This is not Jimbo's fault anymore. Taggart and his team doesn't look any better than last year's awful model. The defense has played probably worse than last season. Cam Akers ran the ball 36 times last week, and although that was good enough to keep up with UL Monroe, Virginia's defense will be much tougher. In fact, I'm wondering if Akers will be a bit beaten up and bruised from last week's OT game with ULM. A large part of this play for me is that FSU is living on past reputation, and recruiting rankings- nothing more.

And the other large part is that Bronco Mendenhall is an excellent coach that has molded his team in a way that they know how to win, how to play with confidence, but with discipline. After all of the past years of mediocrity, this game means a lot to Virginia. They get it at home, at night, and vs. a team that is not just reeling, but is just a flat-out lower tier ACC team. We can't imagine FSU being there, but the last 3 seasons says it's true. In the last 2 years, only one statement win- beating Florida in 2017. And that's when the Gators were much worse than now. Bryce Perkins will be key here. He presents mobility and speed that FSU hasn't faced yet this season, and handled badly last season vs. dual threat QBs. If Virginia plays smart, they easily cover.

TimmyRules · Sep 12, 2019

indiana said:
Fred......you're a solid capper, you will figure it out........appreciate your early thought's, wil be following.......BOL with all your action.......indy

Thanks for the write ups Fred!

Just now played those 1 H lines.

pistol495 · Sep 12, 2019

o fred said:
5* Virginia -7 (-120) Going back a few years, FSU has not performed well coming off disappointing games. Especially on the road. This is not Jimbo's fault anymore. Taggart and his team doesn't look any better than last year's awful model. The defense has played probably worse than last season. Cam Akers ran the ball 36 times last week, and although that was good enough to keep up with UL Monroe, Virginia's defense will be much tougher. In fact, I'm wondering if Akers will be a bit beaten up and bruised from last week's OT game with ULM. A large part of this play for me is that FSU is living on past reputation, and recruiting rankings- nothing more.

And the other large part is that Bronco Mendenhall is an excellent coach that has molded his team in a way that they know how to win, how to play with confidence, but with discipline. After all of the past years of mediocrity, this game means a lot to Virginia. They get it at home, at night, and vs. a team that is not just reeling, but is just a flat-out lower tier ACC team. We can't imagine FSU being there, but the last 3 seasons says it's true. In the last 2 years, only one statement win- beating Florida in 2017. And that's when the Gators were much worse than now. Bryce Perkins will be key here. He presents mobility and speed that FSU hasn't faced yet this season, and handled badly last season vs. dual threat QBs. If Virginia plays smart, they easily cover.

Kaboom also noted in his injury thread that FSU lost their starting left tackle last week. I am a UVA alum so I am programmed to be skeptical about these types of situations but the coaching angle is hard to ignore here with Bronco outweighing Taggart by miles

Recon792 · Sep 12, 2019

Good info... all the best fred

ofred · Sep 12, 2019

Thanks to all and good luck this week. Also, thanks to the posters who tried to warn me off my Huskies bet last week. Should have listened. Although…kind of like them vs. Hawaii this week.

ofred · Sep 12, 2019

Just my two cents on Wazzu and Houston: The total keeps coming down, I think, because Wash. State actually can play defense and D'eriq King hasn't quite found his passing rhythm. Houston's defense might still be horrible so I'm on WSU -9.5 as a lean. Which means I'm playing it small, but not large enough to matter much.

ofred · Sep 12, 2019

4* Charlotte -20.5 Last season Charlotte was facing another dreadful record about mid-season, but they didn't give up. They beat up WKU by 26, knocked off S. Miss, held Tennessee to 14 points, and defeated FAU on the road in their last game. Their defense played pretty well, and much of it returns this season. But…they are coming off a road game to App.State, giving up 56 points- although out yarding them by 68 yards. A blocked punt TD, two very costly turnovers, or Charlotte could have won. I think their D shows up this week vs. UMass. Observers have pointed out just how poorly UMass has played since their 1st quarter spurt vs. a slumbering Rutgers D in game one. Almost no offense the last 7 quarters- getting crushed by Southern Illinois at home, a team that won 2 game sin the FCS last year. Penalties, missed assignments, lack of QB play, poor coaching decisions. Already some are questioning the hiring of Walt Bell.

What is a surprise is how well Charlotte's offense is playing under new coach Will Healy- who many think was a great hire that turned around FCS Austin Peay in just 2 years. His spread option offense fits the personnel, which has some excellent freshman skill players to go with all-conference RB Benny Lemay. Most impressive last week was how well they played @ App. State- a very difficult venue for road teams. While Charlotte plays with enthusiasm and passion, and in a night game at home, UMass will likely lose confidence early. UMass might truly have the worst D in the FBS. The over and Charlotte TT look tempting, but if Charlotte puts them away early, they may get conservative 2nd half. Also, if Charlotte's D plays as well as I think they will, UMass may not score much.

ofred · Sep 13, 2019

Just stunned about the BC game. Kansas all of a sudden has a great offense after scoring 3 offensive TDs vs. Indiana State and Coastal Carolina. Stupid play I guess.

2* NIU +14 I don't think Nebraska's troubles are temporary. They will likely get a number of losses in the Big 10, some by a large margin. Their close win over South Alabama was not a fluke. SA actually looked like the better team at times. Then there was the meltdown last week at Colorado. Adrian Martinez is such an enigma. Can electrify you, then make a stupid play or turn the ball over. He doesn't look comfortable back there in passing situations, and many feel his OL is not a solid pass blocking line. Nebraska has also lost both place-kickers to injury, and even the punter is banged up and won't be doing some of the placekicking duties. They are asking the soccer coach for a possible kicker for Saturday. I also think NIU can defensively handle the Nebraska offense, and provide enough run/ pass balance offensively to get the cover- or maybe an upset. Also like the HC hire of Thomas Hammock. He will likely stick around instead of using the job as a stepping stone. Offensively an excellent coach.

doogieboy · Sep 13, 2019

How embarrassing!! BC one of those teams that screw me year after year whether I bet on them or against them &#55357;&#56865;&#55357;&#56865;

ofred · Sep 14, 2019

Georgia came through, and might cover the game bet too. Last play:

2* Arizona/ Texas Tech- over 75 About week three, there are some wild scoring match-ups, and I think this could be one of them. Maybe by week 3 teams have really worked out the kinks offensively, maybe QBs got their passing timing down, whatever…this game could hit the 90s. Texas Tech could roll Arizona, but if they do, Arizona could score a couple of 4th quarter garbage time TDs. First I want to say that Arizona(again) is one of the worst tackling teams in the PAC 12, only rivaled by the Beavers. They gave up 41 to Northern Arizona last week, and were scored on easily by Hawaii. NAU is not ranked in the FCS. On the plus side for the Wildcats is that Khalil Tate has improved as a passer, and so he truly is a dangerous dual threat. I also think both OCs have held out part of their play books for games like this, knowing it will be a good competitor and a likely scorefest. TT coach, Matt Wells, and OC David Yost are excellent offensive coaches, and I'm not concerned that they only scored 38 vs. UTEP last week. Entertaining late game.

Saints2016 · Sep 14, 2019

Great call on Georgia!

Week 3: Small Plays Killing Me

Search

ofred

Member

indiana

Member

Kaboom

Member

pistol495

Member

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

TimmyRules

Member

pistol495

Member

Recon792

Member

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

ofred

Member

doogieboy

Member

ofred

Member

Saints2016

New member

Forum statistics

Share this page