Friday Service Play Thread 9/13/2019

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ALEX B. SMITH FOOTBALL PLAYS

Game: (103) NORTH CAROLINA at (104) WAKE FOREST
Date/Time: Sep 13 2019 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: WAKE FOREST -3.0 (-108)

It's a showdown of ACC clubs on Thursday night as Wake Forest takes on North Carolina, but this game doesn't count towards the conference record because this series was signed back in 2015 as a schedule filler, but make no mistake about it, this will be an energetic crowd as these two in-state clubs do battle. The Tar Heels are 2-0 on the year as veteran coach Mack Brown is led by his freshman QB Sam Howell, who has engineered a pair of 4th quarter comebacks giving UNC wins over South Carolina and Miami-Florida. Wake Forest is a good football team, with a high octane offense led by QB Jamie Newman, who has thrown for 713 yards with 6 TDs and no INTs his last 2 games. The Demon Deacons also boast a young defensive corps that has been able to get some pressure on opposing QB's thus far. At home with good momentum and a short chalk price, I like Wake Forest to win this one by double-digits.

+EV: CFB 4u: 104 Wake Forest Demon Deacons -148 (Friday, September 13th)

Doug Upstone

5 wake forest -3

James Patrick Sports NCAA College Football Kicks –off with Friday Selection
Washington State vs. Houston 9:15 pm est. ESPN Mike Leach has revitalized his career at Washington State with the Cougars going from being one of the nation's worst power conference teams to three straight bowl bids. When it comes to Wazzu it is obvious that Mike Leach is an outstanding coach. However, this team has to replace to much production on both sides of the ball. Leach's offenses have always tended to be plug-and-play, but I worry about the defense. Wazzu's defense has played a major role in winning 20 games the last two seasons, and it loses a few key parts from that unit heading into 2019, including most of its secondary.Houston's new HC Dana Holgorsen ducked out on a West Virginia rebuild and returned to the state of Texas, where he had success early in his career as an assistant. Looks like a shrewd move. Based on funding, facilities, recruiting territory and conference competition, it should be easier to win big with the Cougars than with the Mountaineers. That's no knock on Holgo. He proved to be a quality coach at WVU going 61-41 overall and 38-32 in the Big 12.Hard to imagine this not working out well for everyone involved.The Cougs are not going to be in a very good mood and this is a very tough venue at TDECU Stadium, Houston, Texas.The Wassou Cougs face long travel in this Cat Fight. (3*) Play. #108. Take Houston Cougars vs. WSU

Football Jesus : NCAA Houston Cougars + the points

Teyas sport


9/13/2019
guarantee cfb n.carolina +3

bonus plays cfb n.carolina over 65 1/2 washington st. -9 1/2 & under 74 boston college over 51



9/13/2019
guarantee mlb tampa bay -131

bonus plays mlb tampa bay under 8 atlanta +135 la dodgers -128 & over 7 1/2

free pick 9/13 mlb st.louis -125

Oskeim

4% North Carolina +3.5

PickersMx.com
80 Dimes Lady Pickers (7-6)
Boston Colege -20

Green Bay Monster Sports 55-37 on top rated plays 18-12 on Max plays 22-19 on heavy leans - MAX play Indians -103

Great Lake Sports

MLB
3* #972 Texas +150 (Burke)

Paul Leiner

2500* BC -20.5

DR. CHUCK

Game: (103) NORTH CAROLINA at (104) WAKE FOREST
Date/Time: Sep 13 2019 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 64.0 (-108)

View Analysis

Mack Brown showed up at Chapel Hill and immediately injected the program with the energy and winning it hadn't had in many years. Not only have they won both of the first 2 games of the season...they did it outright as dogs and against South Carolina and the Miami Hurricanes! Both games came with extreme questions of whether the Heels could even cover either game, with a program on rebuild and extremely young and green QB leading the charge. Those questions were answered quicky and now they find themselves playing what SHOULD be an even easier matchup than the 2 games they previously won outright. Despite this, they are dogs yet again and will make the short trip to play AT Wake Forest and face the high powered offense of Dave Clawson led by dual threat stud Jamie Newman.

Wake Forest is 5-2 to the Over at home with a total of 60 or more under Clawson's reign...including 3 for the last 3 when also being favored at home. UNC has looked better than advertised, but it is unlikely their route to winning is attempting to shut down Newman, but rather catch some breaks and keep up on their own offensive possessions! This is not an ideal number, as it was 62.5 at open, but we do have the benefit of some books earlier in the week popping this up north of 67 in spots.

I think this game starts fast and hard and keeps it up with quicker possessions for both teams and bendy type defenses that are not where they make their hay! If I had to pick a winner of this game I would certainly lean toward Wake Forest at all, and likely look toward the ML despite the -150ish price...as there are solid trends backing UNC in this spot as well...but I also think each should easily go over half the points needed to the total to fly Over. I like this game at 42-38 in a fun game tonight with a coin flip that Wake Forest ends UNC's impressive streak....but we don't have to sweat that action.

Game: (115) MARYLAND at (116) Temple
Date/Time: Sep 14 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Over 31.0 (-110)

View Analysis

Maryland is setting records with the scoring through 2 weeks of football and Temple had the week off to attempt to scheme defensively...or take what they're given when they have the ball! The Terps ain't showing any signs of slowing down...as they are able to continue to prep for once B1G play starts and the big boys are attacking week after week!

Trends point to an Under here on both sides and Temple has a strong defense with a ton of returning starters...but I think the feel out part of this game features more points with both these offensive squads the real stars....and at a nice flat 31 it is wild VALUE!

Dr. Chuck


Game: (969) Minnesota Twins at (970) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Sep 13 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 9.5 (-100)

View Analysis

Odorizzi v. Civale

-Wind is blowing out solidly in the double figures tonight at Progressive

-Odorizzi is a MONSTER fly ball pitcher...as we always like to fade in spots...this time advantageously to the Over with 9 solid hitters on the Cleveland lineup and a recent run of last 6 starts allowing 14 runs and with a near 50% fly ball rate but a ridiculous sub-10% FB/HR rate and a total that isn't all that terrible...just at a 10 run game with the road team favored leaning toward all 18 at bats and no pitchers hitting...seems a little funky and we fire on the laziness of the line!

-Civale had his last start against these Twins and while he "shut" them down...his excellent ERA came along with a 5.81 xFIP (actually identical in the CHW start just prior) with a WHOPPING 93% of contact either medium or hard hit balls. So, the lineup just faced the same starter, had numbers that belied the objective stats

Game: (955) Los Angeles Dodgers at (956) New York Mets
Date/Time: Sep 13 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 4.0 (-105)

View Analysis

Kershaw v. Syndergaard

Couple of stud pitchers heading to the mound in a very important cross country game tonight....Kershaw easy to back...Syndergaard easy to back...but even easier to back is ole Rob Drake behind the plate. This will be the 13th time he leads a staff for a National League game and not a single time has the total gone Over this entire season! Hit those corners with your nasty stuff guys...it will be a K and both starters have solid sample size PAs against the foe, with Kershaw in particular allowing a .219 BA to this Mets lineup in over 150 PAs against.

I had thought about hitting the full game Under and think there is still some value there, but I expect both pitchers to come out firing...hard to imagine the Dodger batting order is ready to pull RIGHT out of their funk facing Thor, and if you cannot get the full 8 runs on the full game I would not recommend pushing it too far honestly...the bullpens aren't always terrible, but they sure ain't reliable enough to back a 7.5 when first 5 innings should encompass our starters completely with no pen worries!

Pickersmx
Mushu 75 Dimes (15-5)
Over 72.5 Houston vs Washington st

Nfac

108) under 74.5 wsu-hou…($600)

Any Essler or Goodfella? TIA

Miller locks

6:00 pm est ncaaf
north carolina vs. Wake forest

pick: North carolina +3 (-110)

risk: 11 units

9:15 pm est ncaaf
washington state vs. Houston u

pick: Washington state -9 (-109)

risk: 11 units

10:07 pm est mlb
tampa bay rays vs. Laa angels

pick: Tampa bay rays (-135)

risk: 11 units

Bezobets

C* Kansas +20.5 -110
B* Wake Forest ML -135