Mistaflava's NFL Week 2 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

Mistaflava's 2019 NFL Record: 6-5-1 ATS (+51.00 Units)

Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 3-0 ATS (+75.00 Units)

The NFL Season is back and although I didn't post too much in 2018 I'll be back and posting here every week in 2019. Hopefully we can have some good discussions, banter, info sharing and all that good stuff forums are made for. I can handle the criticism and the praise one in the same so I encourage comments of any kind.

Wishing everyone a profitable and great 2019 NFL Season!

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Thursday, September 12


Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (10 Units)

The Tampa Bay Buccanneers were not supposed to be a good team in 2019 and they lived up to those expectations in Week 1 of the season with their loss to the San Francisco 49ers at home as a 1 point home favorite. The scoreline in that game says 31-17 and that's why the Bucs are a touchdown underdog in this game but the actually outyarded the 49ers in that game and probably deserved better on the scoredboard. This Todd Bowles defense was not supposed to be 31 points bad but wait until we discuss stats. Offensively, the last time QB Jameis Winston played here in Carolina he had a very good game and the Buccaneers managed to lose by only 3 points as a 10 point road dog. He threw for 367 passing yards and completed 21 of his 27 pass attempts. WR Mike Evans had a monster 100+ yard game and WR Chris Godwin had 3 receptions for 98 yards. The last time Tampa Bay was here was in November 2018 and they got crushed 42-28 but that was with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Prior to the 2017 game, Winston and the Bucs went to Carolina in 2016 and won 17-14 as a 6 point road underdog. You get my drift. The Buccaneers offense wasn't very good against the Niners totalling only 295 yards of offense on 4.8 yards per play but the Panthers defense allowed 349 total yards on 4.9 yards per play in their opener. The Bucs actually ran the ball well averaging 4.7 yards per carry and that's going to be an issue for a Carolina D that was gashed for 166 rushing yards and 5.2 yards per carry. In the air QB Jameis Winston could not have had a worst game finishing with a QB Rating of 43.1 while passing for 174 yards, 4.8 yards per pass attempt and 3 interceptions. He was also sacked 3 times and made bad decisions. Having said that, he always plays well against the Panthers and Carolina managed only 1 QB sack last week and he should have an opportunity to make plays. The big problem for Carolina was 3rd downs as they allowed the Rams to convert on 52.9% of their chances in Week 1 and the Buccaneers converted 45.5% of the time on offense. I like the Bucs offense tonight.

The Carolina Panthers are no longer in the upper echelon of the NFL when it comes to teams competing for a Super Bowl. That window has somewhat passed and the only thing keeping their dreams of making the playoffs alive is RB Christian McCaffrey and his freakish abilities. Without him who knows where this team would be. I mean they did go toe-to-toe with the 2018 Super Bowl Finalist Rams and defending NFC Champions at home but once again their inability to stop opponents has to be a concern. People tend to forget that this is somewhat of a rivalry and these two teams have played some close games. Let's evaluate the Bucs D versus this powerful Panthers offense. Carolina scored 27 points against one of the top defenses in the league last week and did it on 343 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Impressive stuff. However, Todd Bowles is a very good defensive coach and the 31 points allowed to San Francisco were a result of the 3 Jameis Winston interceptions and the 4 overall turnovers. This defense allowed only 256 total yards last week on 4.3 yards per play in that game. The Panthers averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that game and ran all over the Rams D-Line but the Buccaneers defensive line allowed only 98 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry in Week 1. They are a solid unit. In the air QB Cam Newton was decent but not that good. He had a QB Rating of 69.6 while throwing for 216 passing yards and connecting on 25 of his 38 attempts for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. He was sacked 3 times and threw 1 interception while the Panthers turned the ball over 3 times total. This Bucs defense forced 2 turnovers last week and held QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a QB Rating of 78.9 while allowing only 5.9 yards per pass attempt on 158 passing yards. The Bucs D allowed San Francisco to convert only 38.5% of the time on third downs and I think are one of the more underrated units of all the bottom tier teams in the NFL right now.

I will say it agai, this is a divisional matchup that has somewhat turned into a rivalry over the years. They play each other twice a year and know each other well. For those teams expected to finish in the bottom tier of the NFL I think 7 points is way too much man. Dating back to last season Tampa Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss. They are also an impressive 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a double digit loss at home and are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Week 2 games. The reason I'm not going big? Well Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday Night Football Games. Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday Night Football Games. Something has to give. The Panthers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall dating back to 2018 and unlike Tampa Bay they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven coming off a loss. The UNDERDOG is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the ROAD TEAM has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings. 7 points is way too much. Bucs cover and maybe win.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a double digit home loss.


Tampa Bay 24, Carolina 21





more to come..

Good luck!!

Mr. Flava...…...well done last weekend buddy.....continued success tonight...…….indy

Finally off to a good primetime start! Called Buccaneers cover and win. Congrats to all winners. Not exactly a good game but a profitable one!

1-0 ATS (+10.00 Units)

Posting come college football tomorrow!

MistaFlava said:

Finally off to a good primetime start! Called Buccaneers cover and win. Congrats to all winners. Not exactly a good game but a profitable one!

1-0 ATS (+10.00 Units)

Posting come college football tomorrow!

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Solid start to the year my friend. I appreciate all your hard work and dedication and throughly enjoy your write ups. Two games I'm eyeing hard this weekend. I LOVE Cincinnati-1.5 @ home to the 49ers and I LOVE the Giants @ home at 2pt underdogs. Both opposing teams in these games are on b2b road games playing in the 2nd consecutive game where the opponent is playing their home opener. Teams in the 49ers and Bill's spot have done horrible ATS in recent years. Your thoughts?

Good call. Bucs D underrated and Todd Bowles is a great DC. Had a great D w the NYJ w the Sons of destruction ( Damon Harrison etc) , Revis island etc. Ariens really reigned in Winston and Leftwich called a good game w some good runs and a nice run/pass mic.

CAR in trouble w Norv as OC. He quit back in MIN and is really past his prime. Look at how unbalanced they were on O. 19 rushing plays for 39 yds and giving Newton the ball 51 x to overthrow. Fade them on the road esp.

Solid Mista you were spot on!!

nice call flava

Congrats Flava.

Nice hit flav! Love your contributions.

MRFREAK69 said:

Solid start to the year my friend. I appreciate all your hard work and dedication and throughly enjoy your write ups. Two games I'm eyeing hard this weekend. I LOVE Cincinnati-1.5 @ home to the 49ers and I LOVE the Giants @ home at 2pt underdogs. Both opposing teams in these games are on b2b road games playing in the 2nd consecutive game where the opponent is playing their home opener. Teams in the 49ers and Bill's spot have done horrible ATS in recent years. Your thoughts?

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Sorry to hijack thread but wow only KC and NE won and covered in 2nd of b2b road game Week Two in last 5 years






and if team lost Week One. Only NE won and covered. 1-10 ATS

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Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (10 Units)

The hook is almost too good to pass up in this case and I'm taking Seattle. The Seahawks looked awful last week against Cincinnati in their Home Opener despite winning the game and being outyarded by a grand total of 197 total yards. That's pretty insane. The Seattle offense wasn't as bad as some of the media made them out to be in that game considering they still averaged 5.2 yards per play. The Steelers defense looked horrendous last Sunday Night allowing 33 points, 465 total yards of offense and a whopping 7.0 yards per play. Sure it was the Patriots and sure this defense has more pride than that but how are they stopping QB Russ Wilson who put up similar numbers to Brady's numbers last week? The ground game didn't do much for Seattle and the Steelers run defense is actually pretty good but Wilson had a QB Rating of 127.1 last week, completing 70% of his passes 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The problem with Russ was he was sacked 4 times. Well the Steelers never came close to Tom Brady last week, they allowed him to complete 67.6% of his passes for 366 passing yards and 9.9 yards per pass attempt. Guys like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf could shine over Juju and company. No way Pittsburgh had enough time to fix that defense in 5 days.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off that embarrassing 33-3 road loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. It doesn't get worse than that. The offense looked horrible, the defense was atrocious, receivers were dropping passes, Tom Brady was carving the secondary up like a hot knife through butter and Mike Tomlin's time with the Steelers was being questioned. Not a good vibe to carry all week and not a good vibe to carry into a game like this. The Steelers did average 5.1 yards per play in the Patriots, which like the Seahawks should have yielded more points, and they do get to face a Seahawks team that allowed a crazy 6.6 yards per play against the lowly Bengals at home last week. Much like the Steelers, Seattle's defense allowed next to nothing on the ground (2.4 yards per carry) and the Steelers showed no life in the running game playing from behind all game. Where I think the Seahawks win this game is in the passing game. Sure they allowed 395 passing yards for 7.7 yards per pass attempt and allowed QB Andrew Dalton to have a QB Rating of 104.6 but they also had 5 sacks, forced 4 fumbles and recovered 3 fumbles. Big Ben was horrendous completing only 57.4% of his passes for 5.9 yards per pass attempt and today he faces a relentless pass rush and a group that can take the ball away. Seattle was also much better on 3rd downs defensively than Pittsburgh last week and that could be huge here.

The hook looks like a trap but with the betting public split right down the middle at 50-50 I don't see it that way. The question for everyone has to be how do these two teams bounce back from their terrible starts to the season? Keep in mind Seattle practiced all week on a win. Pittsburgh practiced all week on a loss, questions about their coach, questions about their receivers. Seattle comes into this game an impressive 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a spread loss. The Steelers on the other hand were 1-4 ATS last seasons when coming off a straight up loss. You have to keep in mind that Seattle is always a good road team and they are 5-1 ATS in their last five NFL road games and Pete Caroll is looking to break the trend of poor games in September. The Steelers have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 13 home games overall and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing 30+ points in the previous game. I smell trouble in Pittsburgh after this game.

Trend of the Game: Seattle is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off an ATS spread loss.


Seattle 26, Pittsburgh 23





more to come...

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Cincinnati Bengals -1 (10 Units)

My PLAY OF THE WEEK on San Francisco last week was a big winner and although I would love to follow the possible gravy train, I just don't trust this team to win two straight 1pm ET road games to start the NFL Season. What people don't seem to ever consider is the fact that despite winning the 49ers lost the yardage battle by 37 yards in that game. Let's take a look at their offense. The Niners scored 31 points in the big win over Tampa Bay but their offense managed only 256 total yards of offense on a weak 4.3 yards per play. Now they have to face a Cincinnati defense that went to Seattle, that allowed only 21 points in Seattle and that also allowed only 232 total yards on 5.2 yards per play. Seattle wasn't able to run the ball and averaged only 2.9 yards per carry on 72 yards. In their opener, San Francisco also had issues in the running game averaging only 3.1 yards per carry and 98 rushing yards last week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo completed 66.7% of his passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 166 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception and QB Rating of 80.2. The Bengals were somewhat torched in the air last week but that's because Seattle was playing from behind. The Bengals had 4 sacks in the game and allowed Seattle to convert only 33.3% of the time on third down while recovering one fumble. This unit will be ready for the home opener and I think we see the real Niners in this one.

The Cincinnati Bengals know they should have won that game last week in new Head Coach Zac Taylor's debut. They had the Seahawks on the brink but 3 lost fumbles cost them big time and I'm sure they spent most of this week working on ball security. Keep in mind that Cincinnati outyarded the Seahawks by a crazy 197 total yards in that game and should have won. Now the Home Opener and winning at home was a huge issue late in Marv Lewis' tenure here. The Bengals offense looked great last week even without WR AJ Green who is still out. They scored 20 points but had 429 total yards of offense on 6.6 yards per play in that game. San Francisco's D is pretty solid and they will win them some games this season but expect a big game from whoever is in the backfield for Cincinnati today. RB Joe Mixon got hurt last game but RB Giovanni Bernard is ready for a full work load against a San Francisco run defense that allowed 121 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per carry. In the air QB Andy Dalton had a QB Rating of 104.6 last week completing 68.6% of his passes for 395 passing yards, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. He now faced a Niners secondary that looked pretty damn good last week. They had 3 interceptions, allowed only 4.8 yards per pass attempt and allowed Jameis Winston to complete only 55.6% of his passes. Dalton had a ton of protection problems last week (3 sacks) but the offense made it work. What I didn't like about the San Fran defense last week is that they allowed Tampa to convert 45.5% of the time on third downs and as long as the Bengals don't fumble 4 times again they'll make the Niners pay in this one.

Let's be honest here. San Francisco's defense is the reason they won last week in Tampa Bay with their 4 turnovers. Can they reproduce that? I don't see it. Cincinnati's fumble problems are also the reason they lost last week. Will that happen again? Unlikely. Heading into last week San Francisco was 0-4 ATS in their last four road games so let's keep in mind they are still a weak road team. This is also a team that is only 2-7 ATS in their last nine games played on FieldTurf. Cincinnati was 4-0 ATS in their last four games last season when coming off a straight up loss and dating back to last season the Bengals have covered the spread in five straight games heading into this one. I was talking about Zac Taylor wanting to change the narrative of Cincinnati being a bad home team (1-5 ATS in their last five home games) and they should be able to change that today. Maybe this won't be pretty because San Francisco's defense is good but the Bengals have weapons and they'll find a way to win this.

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in their last five games dating back to last season.


Cincinnati 31, San Francisco 16





more to come...

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Houston Texans -7.5 (10 Units)

The door is wide open for Jackonsville Head Coach Doug Marrone to walk out or shall I say be escorted out. I see that happening in the next couple of weeks if this team continues to underachieve like they have the last two seasons now. Why is everyone giving the Jags so much respect here? They were awful against Kansas City last week and now they've lost their starting QB for the season. What am I missing? What's crazy is the numbers they still put up last week as they managed 428 total yards on a crazy 8.7 yards per play. RB Leonard Fournette could have a big day because Houston's run defense looked porous against the Saints allowing 7.0 yards per carry but again the Jags went down early and weren't able to run the ball more than 16 times in that game. QB Gardner Minshew put up great numbers in relief of Nick Foles but let's see how he does with a full week of practice. I won't talk too much about the Texans defense because at the end of the day it's why they lost last week but the positives are that they held Drew Brees to a QB Rating of only 105.0 in that game and they did intercept him once. Expect JJ Watt (who's name we did not hear once on Monday Night Football) and this defense to bounce back this week in their Home Opener and I see them forcing 2-3 turnovers that lead to points. I don't trust the Jaguars regardless of the numbers they put up last week because Kansas City plays school yard football.

The Houston Texans had the win in New Orleans last week but their defense gave it away late and could not hold on for what would have been an incredible win to start the season. How will this team bounce back is the question and historically under Bill O'Brien they've bounced back nicely after losses. Houston's offense was pretty impressive last week against a good Saints defense (some say the best secondary in the NFL). They scored 28 points in the game on 414 total yards and 7.8 yards per play. Much like the Houston defense, this overrated Jacksonville defense was absolutely torched last week for 40 points, 491 total yards and a whopping 8.2 yards per play which is actually worse than the Texans defense. The only difference is the Texans have a young superstar QB in Deshaun Watson leading them into this bounce back game while the Jaguars have a backup rookie. Watson had a QB Rating of 109.6 last week completing 66.7% of his passes for 234 yards and 7.8 yards per pass attempt. All this while being sacked 6 times. Well the Jaguars pass rush had 0 sacks last week, they were torched for 378 passing yards and 11.1 yards per pass attempt and they had 0 sacks, 0 interceptions and 0 forced fumbles. There is just no life there whatsoever. Despite the loss of RB Lamar Miller the Texans still had 180 rushing yards on 7.8 yards per carry. Way too many weapons on this offense.

The real question here is who's defense will bounce back and who's defense will continue to look like the worst defense in the NFL? This is a tough number because it's a divisional battle and games are supposed to be close but the last time Jacksonville was here they lost 20-3 and they come into this game having covered the spread in only 2 of their last 13 games overall. WOW! They are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven versus fellow AFC South opponents and they have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 10 games that are coming off a straight up loss. Houston on the other hand have handled their last four losses overall by coming back the following week and going 3-0-1 ATS and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games versus AFC Conference opponents. Typically in a divisional game I'm going with the underdog of more than a touchdown but Houston is upset, their defense has more pride than the Jags defense and they'll come out swinging.

Trend of the Game: Jacksonville have covered the spread in 2 of their last 13 games overall.


Houston 36, Jacksonville 13





more to come...

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New England Patriots -18 (10 Units)

You have to bet on this. What choice have we been left with considering the state of the Miami Dolphins right now. Before I talk about the Dolphins lets' discuss the Patriots a bit. We all know how Billy B works when he coaches against former assistants or coordinators and today he once again gets that chance when he takes on Brian Flores of the Dolphins. The Patriots didn't just give the Steelers a beatdown on Sunday Night Football last weekend but they took their spirit away. I won't discuss AB because I don't know if he's playing. Regardless this Patriots team just outyarded the Steelers by 157 total yards while scoring 33 points on 465 total yards of offense and 7.0 yards per play. My goodness! Miami's high school defense allowed 59 points last week on 643 total yards of offense and 8.9 yards per play. This is virtually unheard of in the NFL and it's embarrassing. Will the Pats take the foot off the pedal? No chance. I do see the Pats using RB Sony Michel a lot more today as they failed to crack the 100 yard rushing mark last week and will want to have that kind of game against a Dolphins run defense that allowed 265 yards and 5.8 yards per carry. In the air the Dolphins were destroyed by Lamar Jackson for 378 passing yards and a whopping 14.5 yards per pass attempt and Jackson had a QB Rating of 158.3 in that game. What will Tom Brady have? He was sacked only 1 time, threw 0 interceptions and the Pats did not turn the ball over once last week while converting 50.0% of their chances on third down. This is pure madness.

The Miami Dolphins are not an NFL team and I know that joke has been made in the past with a bunch of teams but this is not a joke. They traded most of their talent away before the season started, they brought in a first time head coach and after suffering one of the worst Week 1 beatdowns in NFL history at home in front of their fans, many players started demanding trades out of town. This is bad. Real bad. Have you ever heard of an NFL team being outyarded by 443 total yards or what? Miami did score 10 points last week and managed 200 total yards of offense on 4.5 yards per play. The Patriots defense looked so damn good and they showed some bend but don't break abilities allowing 5.1 yards per play but allowing only 3 total points. Today they have a bit of fun. The Patriots managed only 1 sack last week but this they will dial up the pressure I'm sure. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was terrible with this offensive line (21 rushing yards on 1.8 yards per carry for the entire team) last week with his QB Rating of 48.8. He completed only 46.9% of his passes for 179 passing yards and 5.6 yards per pass attempt while throwing 2 interceptions. Miami took 9 penalties for 64 penalty yards and they were awful on 3rd downs. The Patriots just held Big Ben to a QB Rating of 65.6 and allowed only 32 rushing yards against the Steelers. This could get ugly.

We all know what happened here last December. The Patriots walked in as -9.5 favorites, the entire world bet on them and they lost 34-33. Billy B does not forget these things. As a matter of fact Miami have won 4 of their last 5 home games against the Patriots and the one time they didn't win they lost 35-14. Should we follow these trends? I mean the Dolphins are not even a shell of what they were a season ago and that's not saying much. A good stat to follow is that the one that says the Patriots are 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games when allowing 90 or less rushing yards in their previous game (they allowed only 32). Overall the Pats have covered 41 of their last 58 games. How can anyone go against them? Miami has covered the spread only 12 of their last 39 games when coming off a spread loss the previous game and although all the historical numbers point towards a Miami spread cover I just can't bet on them and will continue to bet against them until they start resembling an NFL team.

Trend of the Game: New England is 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.


New England 34, Miami 3





more to come...

Slurve~Ball said:

Sorry to hijack thread but wow only KC and NE won and covered in 2nd of b2b road game Week Two in last 5 years



My point exactly. This week fade the 49ers and Bill's. I see you are already on CINCY Mista! I'm taking CINCY BIG!!!!

p:site = away and site = away and week = 2 and (2014 , 1) <= (season , week)
SU: 3-15-0 (-7.56, 16.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 2-16-0 (-6.14, 11.1%) avg line: 1.4 +6: 9-9-0 (50.0%) -6: 2-16-0 (11.1%) +10: 13-5-0 (72.2%) -10: 1-17-0 (5.6%) O/U: 7-9-2 (1.94, 43.8%) avg total: 45.3 +6: 5-13-0 (27.8%) -6: 14-4-0 (77.8%) +10: 4-14-0 (22.2%) -10: 15-3-0 (83.3%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 22.4 98.4 38.2 258.0 23.7 2.0 3.3 5.0 4.6 6.8 19.8 Opp 28.8 112.9 33.7 243.1 21.6 0.8 7.6 8.2 4.4 7.1 27.4
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 14, 2014 view Sunday 2 2014 Saints Browns away 0-10 10-6 7-7 7-3 24-26 -5.0 49.5 -2 -7.0 0.5 -3.2 3.8 L L O 0 Sep 14, 2014 view Sunday 2 2014 Jaguars Redskins away 0-7 7-14 0-3 3-17 10-41 5.5 43.0 -31 -25.5 8.0 -8.8 16.8 L L O 0 Sep 14, 2014 view Sunday 2 2014 Patriots Vikings away 10-7 14-0 3-0 3-0 30-7 -3.5 49.0 23 19.5 -12.0 3.8 -15.8 W W U 0 Sep 20, 2015 view Sunday 2 2015 Titans Browns away 0-14 0-7 7-0 7-7 14-28 0.0 42.0 -14 -14 0 -7.0 7.0 L L P 0 Sep 20, 2015 view Sunday 2 2015 Dolphins Jaguars away 3-10 10-10 7-0 0-3 20-23 -5.0 42.5 -3 -8 0.5 -3.8 4.2 L L O 0 Sep 20, 2015 view Sunday 2 2015 Seahawks Packers away 3-10 0-3 14-3 0-11 17-27 3.5 49.0 -10 -6.5 -5 -5.8 0.8 L L U 0 Sep 20, 2015 view Sunday 2 2015 Ravens Raiders away 10-10 10-10 0-10 13-7 33-37 -6.5 42.5 -4 -10.5 27.5 8.5 19.0 L L O 0 Sep 20, 2015 view Sunday 2 2015 Lions Vikings away 0-7 10-10 0-6 6-3 16-26 2.5 43.5 -10 -7.5 -1.5 -4.5 3.0 L L U 0 Sep 18, 2016 view Sunday 2 2016 Buccaneers Cardinals away 0-0 0-24 7-9 0-7 7-40 7.0 49.5 -33 -26.0 -2.5 -14.2 11.8 L L U 0 Sep 18, 2016 view Sunday 2 2016 Dolphins Patriots away 0-14 3-10 7-7 14-0 24-31 6.0 42.5 -7 -1.0 12.5 5.8 6.8 L L O 0 Sep 18, 2016 view Sunday 2 2016 Bengals Steelers away 3-7 3-3 3-7 7-7 16-24 3.5 48.0 -8 -4.5 -8.0 -6.2 -1.8 L L U 0 Sep 18, 2016 view Sunday 2 2016 Packers Vikings away 7-0 0-10 0-7 7-0 14-17 -2.0 42.5 -3 -5.0 -11.5 -8.2 -3.2 L L U 0 Sep 17, 2017 view Sunday 2 2017 Eagles Chiefs away 3-3 0-3 7-7 10-14 20-27 5.5 47.0 -7 -1.5 0 -0.8 0.8 L L P 0 Sep 17, 2017 view Sunday 2 2017 Cardinals Colts away 0-10 3-0 0-0 10-3 16-13 -7.0 44.0 3 -4.0 -15.0 -9.5 -5.5 W L U 1 Sep 17, 2017 view Sunday 2 2017 Jets Raiders away 0-7 10-14 3-7 7-17 20-45 14.5 43.5 -25 -10.5 21.5 5.5 16.0 L L O 0 Sep 16, 2018 view Sunday 2 2018 Chiefs Steelers away 21-0 0-21 14-7 7-9 42-37 4.5 53.0 5 9.5 26.0 17.8 8.2 W W O 0 Sep 16, 2018 view Sunday 2 2018 Texans Titans away 0-14 7-0 3-0 7-6 17-20 -2.5 41.0 -3 -5.5 -4.0 -4.8 0.8 L L U 0 Sep 17, 2018 view Monday 2 2018 Seahawks Bears away 0-7 3-3 0-0 14-14 17-24 4.5 43.0 -7 -2.5 -2.0 -2.2 0.2 L L U 0 Sep 15, 2019 view Sunday 2 2019 Fortyniners Bengals away 2.0 45.5 Sep 15, 2019 view Sunday 2 2019 Bills Giants away -1.5 44.0 Sep 15, 2019 view Sunday 2 2019 Chiefs Raiders away -7.0 53.0 Sep 15, 2019 view Sunday 2 2019 Colts Titans away 3.0 44.0 Showing 1 to 22 of 22 entries

and if team lost Week One. Only NE won and covered. 1-10 ATS

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My point exactly. Fade 49ers and Bill's this week!!!

MistaFlava said:

adding...


Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (10 Units)

The hook is almost too good to pass up in this case and I'm taking Seattle. The Seahawks looked awful last week against Cincinnati in their Home Opener despite winning the game and being outyarded by a grand total of 197 total yards. That's pretty insane. The Seattle offense wasn't as bad as some of the media made them out to be in that game considering they still averaged 5.2 yards per play. The Steelers defense looked horrendous last Sunday Night allowing 33 points, 465 total yards of offense and a whopping 7.0 yards per play. Sure it was the Patriots and sure this defense has more pride than that but how are they stopping QB Russ Wilson who put up similar numbers to Brady's numbers last week? The ground game didn't do much for Seattle and the Steelers run defense is actually pretty good but Wilson had a QB Rating of 127.1 last week, completing 70% of his passes 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The problem with Russ was he was sacked 4 times. Well the Steelers never came close to Tom Brady last week, they allowed him to complete 67.6% of his passes for 366 passing yards and 9.9 yards per pass attempt. Guys like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf could shine over Juju and company. No way Pittsburgh had enough time to fix that defense in 5 days.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off that embarrassing 33-3 road loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. It doesn't get worse than that. The offense looked horrible, the defense was atrocious, receivers were dropping passes, Tom Brady was carving the secondary up like a hot knife through butter and Mike Tomlin's time with the Steelers was being questioned. Not a good vibe to carry all week and not a good vibe to carry into a game like this. The Steelers did average 5.1 yards per play in the Patriots, which like the Seahawks should have yielded more points, and they do get to face a Seahawks team that allowed a crazy 6.6 yards per play against the lowly Bengals at home last week. Much like the Steelers, Seattle's defense allowed next to nothing on the ground (2.4 yards per carry) and the Steelers showed no life in the running game playing from behind all game. Where I think the Seahawks win this game is in the passing game. Sure they allowed 395 passing yards for 7.7 yards per pass attempt and allowed QB Andrew Dalton to have a QB Rating of 104.6 but they also had 5 sacks, forced 4 fumbles and recovered 3 fumbles. Big Ben was horrendous completing only 57.4% of his passes for 5.9 yards per pass attempt and today he faces a relentless pass rush and a group that can take the ball away. Seattle was also much better on 3rd downs defensively than Pittsburgh last week and that could be huge here.

The hook looks like a trap but with the betting public split right down the middle at 50-50 I don't see it that way. The question for everyone has to be how do these two teams bounce back from their terrible starts to the season? Keep in mind Seattle practiced all week on a win. Pittsburgh practiced all week on a loss, questions about their coach, questions about their receivers. Seattle comes into this game an impressive 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a spread loss. The Steelers on the other hand were 1-4 ATS last seasons when coming off a straight up loss. You have to keep in mind that Seattle is always a good road team and they are 5-1 ATS in their last five NFL road games and Pete Caroll is looking to break the trend of poor games in September. The Steelers have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 13 home games overall and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing 30+ points in the previous game. I smell trouble in Pittsburgh after this game.

Trend of the Game: Seattle is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off an ATS spread loss.


Seattle 26, Pittsburgh 23





more to come...

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hey Flava, do you know the trend for the Steelers coming off a DD loss and then playing at home?
tried looking it up but to no avail..

BOL!

MRFREAK69 said:

My point exactly. Fade 49ers and Bill's this week!!!

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If it takes Brady and Maholmes to cover......I will bet against Bills and 49ers all day
GL today Mister

exploited17 said:

If it takes Brady and Maholmes to cover......I will bet against Bills and 49ers all day
GL today Mister

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The B2B road team coming off a win/loss playing in week 2 on the road trend has 4 plays that fit today. CINCINNATI, GIANTS, TITANS & RAIDERS. Raiders are playing KC. KC and NE are the only teams to defy this trend. However if you look at the average margin of victory for the home team in this spot, it is +7. Raiders are catching 7 at home with a much improved team this year from what I seen in week one. They have playmakers all over the field and the defense has improved. It might hold some value catching 7 with the raiders in hopes that they can keep up with KC. The other 3 for me I'm already suited up. I took CINCY, GIANTS, TITANS.

MistaFlava much respect to you my man and I hope these little comments here and there are okay with you brother. Just some very good trendy knowledge and I know you love trends. Would love to hear your input on this. GL TODAY!

Dexter03 said:

hey Flava, do you know the trend for the Steelers coming off a DD loss and then playing at home?
tried looking it up but to no avail..

BOL!

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But are The Steelers, "The Steelers", anymore?