Office Pool Fades

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This is a breakdown of the picks in my office pool. I did this last season and fading the pool hit at an amazing clip for a while and then turned like milk. Criteria used was 70% or more on a fave, play the dog. 60% or more on a dog, play the fave. Lines are from Monday morning, when sheets are passed out. All lines for the pool have a hook so there are no ties when scoring the sheets. If there is no set line, the boys who run the pool make a line themselves. Obviously, line moves and difference with any "fudged" line is likely to influence players, so take that into account. Also, note the pool is in the NY/NJ area so consider homer picks on the Jets and Giants.

For purposes of the fade, obvious bad lines or "wrong favorites" (point spread differences of 3 or more) are thrown out.

There was one play in week one and it would have been a winner - Dallas. NYG were a public dog. Indy almost made the cut but didn't quite make it. I didn't post so of course it won't count towards the record.

To see how fading the pool did last year here is the week 17 post which summarizes the season: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1129221&highlight=office+pool+fades

WEEK ONE
234 ENTRIES
*HOME

*NYJ -3.5 BUF 155 ON NYJ
*DAL -7.5 NYG 147 ON NYG 63% ON NYG - PUBLIC DOG
*MIN -3.5 ATL 121 ON MIN
*PHI -9.5 WAS 149 ON PHI
BAL -6.5 *MIA 148 ON BAL
*T.B -1.5 S.F 115 ON T.B
K.C -4.5 *JAX 150 ON K.C
*CLE -5.5 TEN 141 ON CLE
LAR -3.5 *CAR 119 ON CAR
DET -2.5 *ARI 101 ON DET
*SEA -9.5 CIN 145 ON SEA
*LAC -6.5 IND 161 ON LAC 69% ON LAC
*N.E -5.5 PIT 120 ON N.E
*NOR -7.5 HOU 130 ON NOR
*OAK -0.5 DEN 133 ON OAK


WEEK TWO
256 ENTRIES
*HOME

BUF -2.5 *NYG 168 ON NYG 66% ON NYG - PUBLIC DOG
*TEN -3.5 IND 164 ON TEN
LAC -3.5 *DET 153 ON LAC
*BAL 13.5 ARI 134 ON BAL
N.E 15.5 *MIA 187 ON N.E 73% ON N.E
DAL -5.5 *WAS 163 ON DAL
*HOU -9.5 JAX 130 ON HOU
*PIT -3.5 SEA 150 ON SEA
S.F -2.5 *CIN 124 ON S.F
*G.B -3.5 MIN 140 ON MIN
K.C -9.5 *OAK 146 ON K.C
*LAR -3.5 NOR 159 ON NOR 62% ON NOR - PUBLIC DOG
*DEN -0.5 CHI 153 ON CHI 60% ON CHI - PUBLIC DOG
PHI -1.5 *ATL 152 ON PHI
CLE -2.5*NYJ 140 ON CLE


So, 4 plays today - Bills, Fins, Rams, and Broncos.


GL RX brothers!

th
 

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Thanks Stander Look forward to this pool every year but wouldn't the Miami/NE game be a throw away due to line move?? 15.5-18.5 some places 19

Thanks for the work and info
 

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Stander...…...appreciate the info buddy.....BOL with your action today......indy
 

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Thanks Stander Look forward to this pool every year but wouldn't the Miami/NE game be a throw away due to line move?? 15.5-18.5 some places 19

Thanks for the work and info
If it hits 19 or more yes. It was 18 at the time of post. Good luck!
 

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Thanks for posting Stander. I always enjoy seeing info like you are providing. Two things:

-What city or part of the country are you located, or are you indeed residing in Cork, Ireland? It simply helps to look at regional bias in a pool.

-In your original post you state, "There was one play in week one and it would have been a winner - Dallas. NYG were a public dog. Indy almost made the cut but didn't quite make it. I didn't post so of course it won't count towards the record."

I say count it in the record as this is not a personal play. It is one game and it is a firmly stated criterion for plays. It is the true record for the Season. Simply my opinion.

Hope you can post each week if you have the time. Good luck to you.

Cheers!
 

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What's turned like milk ? Soured?
 

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2-1-1 (I got 2 in the Denver game so I pushed). Or 3-1 if you got 2.5 or 3 in the Denver game. A winning week either way.

I imagine picks for the Dolphins games will be lopsided all season. As another poster pointed out yesterday, the Miami situation is unprecedented. Never before has a team thrown in the towel before the season even started. Miami "plays" in the future will be provided with an asterix and not included in the fade record. After what we've seen the past two weeks, I can't imagine anyone wagering on them again this season.

This week's line for their next game in Dallas was 20.5 this morning. I can see it at 24 or more by Sunday. I read the highest spread in NFL history was 28 - Denver over Jacksonville in 2013. I wonder if you can find odds anywhere of that record being broken this year?
 

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And the fade did turn like milk after a great run to start last season. It went bad - really bad - all at once!
 

We see the light
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Looking good stander. Appreciate the works. One can use the info however they choose.
 

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Lots of "wrong favorites" this week because of the QB injuries last week.
Fade 70% or more picks on a favoite and 60% or more picks on a dog

269 Entries
* Home

FAV PTS DOG MAJORITY OF PICKS
*N.E 17.5 NYJ | 210 on N.E_________(WRONG FAVORITE - LINE IS 20.5)
*DAL 21.5 MIA | 186 on DAL_________(MIAMI FORFEITS THE SEASON RULE)
*SEA 1.5 N.O | 217 on SEA__________(WRONG FAVORITE - LINE IS 5)
*S.F 1.5 PIT | 220 on S.F__________(WRONG FAVORITE - LINE IS 6.5)
CAR 3.5 *ARI | 185 on ARI__________(WRONG FAVORITE - LINE IS AZ -2.5)
*TAM 6.5 NYG | 140 on NYG
*G.B 8.5 DEN | 166 on G.B
*PHI 7.5 DET | 154 on DET
*K.C 6.5 BAL | 151 on K.C
*BUF 5.5 CIN | 165 on BUF
*IND 2.5 ATL | 184 on ATL___________68% ON ATL__PUBLIC DOC
*MIN 7.5 OAK | 179 on MIN
*LAC 3.5 HOU | 139 on HOU
LAR 3.5 *CLE | 196 on LAR____________73% ON LAR
CHI 5.5 *WAS | 137 on WAS

Two plays this week - Browns +3.5 and Colts -1.5.
These are the lines I got at the time of post.

GL RX brothers!


tenor.gif



FADE RECORD: 3-1-1

Fades of 70% or more on a favorite: 0-1
Fades of 60% or more of a dog: 3-0-1

WEEK ONE (1-0)

*DAL -7.5 NYG 147 ON NYG__63% ON NYG__PUBLIC DOG
Dallas 35 NYG 17
Dallas winner

WEEK 2 (2-1-1)

BUF -2.5 *NYG 168 ON NYG__66% ON NYG__PUBLIC DOG
Bills 28 Giants 14
Bills winner

N.E 15.5 *MIA 187 ON N.E__73% ON N.E
Pats 43 - Dolphins 0
Dolphins loser
No more Dolphins games rule initiated.

*LAR -3.5 NOR 159 ON NOR__62% ON NOR__PUBLIC DOG
Rams 27 Saints 9
Rams winner

*DEN -0.5 CHI 153 ON CHI__60% ON CHI__PUBLIC DOG
Bears 16-Broncos 14
The points mattered. Lines on Sunday anywhere from Bears -1 to -3
This game could have well been thrown out as a wrong favorite
but at the time of post line was Broncos +2 so I got a push
 

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thanks for the report....loved that colts play yesterday....the guys don't do well on those dogs !!
 

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265 entries this week.


Last week the fade split with the Colts winning and the Browns losing. So far, fading public dogs has been the way to go.
Unfortunately, Picks were split pretty evenly this week.




* Home
Note: Line is from pick sheet, passed out Monday


FAV____LINE____DOG_____MAJORITY OF PICKS


NYG*____3.5_____WAS_____170 ON NYG
HOU*____4.5____CAR______172 ON HOU
BAL*____5.5____CLE____185 ON BAL------------70%
LAC_____17.5___MIA*____146 ON MIA
IND*____7.5____OAK____138 ON IND
K.C_____6.5____DET*____170 ON K.C
N.E_____7.5____BUF*____171 ON N.E
ATL*____5.5____TEN____157 ON ATL
LAR*____10.5___T.B____ 135 ON LAR
SEA_____4.5____ARI*____171 ON SEA
CHI*____2.5____MIN____144 ON MIN
DEN*____3.5____JAX____143 ON JAX
DAL_____3.5____N.O*____145 ON DAL
PIT*____4.5____CIN____154 ON PIT


So, one play - the Browns - for the second week in a row. Line was +7 at the time of post.


GL RX brothers.


latest



FADE RECORD: 4-2-1


Fades of 70% or more on a favorite: 0-2
Fades of 60% or more of a dog: 4-0-1


WEEK ONE (1-0)


*DAL -7.5 NYG 147 ON NYG__63% ON NYG__PUBLIC DOG
Dallas 35 NYG 17
Dallas winner


WEEK 2 (2-1-1)


BUF -2.5 *NYG 168 ON NYG__66% ON NYG__PUBLIC DOG
Bills 28 Giants 14
Bills winner


N.E 15.5 *MIA 187 ON N.E__73% ON N.E
Pats 43 - Dolphins 0
Dolphins loser
No more Dolphins games rule initiated.


*LAR -3.5 NOR 159 ON NOR__62% ON NOR__PUBLIC DOG
Rams 27 Saints 9
Rams winner


*DEN -0.5 CHI 153 ON CHI__60% ON CHI__PUBLIC DOG
Bears 16-Broncos 14
The points mattered. Lines on Sunday anywhere from Bears -1 to -3
This game could have well been thrown out as a wrong favorite
but at the time of post line was Broncos +2 so I got a push


WEEK 3 (1-1)


*IND 2.5 ATL | 184 on ATL___________68% ON ATL__PUBLIC DOC
Colts 27 - Falcons 24
Colts winner


LAR 3.5 *CLE | 196 on LAR____________73% ON LAR
Rams 20 - Browns 13
Browns loser
 

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265 entries this week.


Last week the fade split with the Colts winning and the Browns losing. So far, fading public dogs has been the way to go.
Unfortunately, Picks were split pretty evenly this week.




* Home
Note: Line is from pick sheet, passed out Monday


FAV____LINE____DOG_____MAJORITY OF PICKS


NYG*____3.5_____WAS_____170 ON NYG
HOU*____4.5____CAR______172 ON HOU
BAL*____5.5____CLE____185 ON BAL------------70%
LAC_____17.5___MIA*____146 ON MIA
IND*____7.5____OAK____138 ON IND
K.C_____6.5____DET*____170 ON K.C
N.E_____7.5____BUF*____171 ON N.E
ATL*____5.5____TEN____157 ON ATL
LAR*____10.5___T.B____ 135 ON LAR
SEA_____4.5____ARI*____171 ON SEA
CHI*____2.5____MIN____144 ON MIN
DEN*____3.5____JAX____143 ON JAX
DAL_____3.5____N.O*____145 ON DAL
PIT*____4.5____CIN____154 ON PIT


So, one play - the Browns - for the second week in a row. Line was +7 at the time of post.


r
At 5.5 I can see the majority on the Ravens, but at 7(What it currently stands at, I think you'd get a lot more picks flipped to the browns)
 

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