Thursday Service Play Thread 9/19/2019

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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Let's go Brandon!
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Alan Scozzari

TIP OF THE DAY package B Wager
Europa League
Partizan - AZ Alkmaar
UNDER 2,5 -127

GUARANTEED package A Wager
Europa League
Celtic 0 +0,5 +104
 

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ROB VENO


BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (953) San Diego Padres at (954) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Sep 19 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+120)

View Analysis

Game: (955) St. Louis Cardinals at (956) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: Sep 19 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -105

View Analysis

Game: (963) Kansas City Royals at (964) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Sep 19 2019 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-145)
 

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Dr. Chuck


Game: (967) San Francisco Giants at (968) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Sep 19 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: San Francisco Giants 1.5 (-135)

View Analysis

MadBum v. Rodriguez

You have to be kidding me...MadBum...off a game where they waxed the lifeless and couldn't care less champs and Bochy got his 2000th win...is a +160 or close DOG?! No Mookie, no JD, no life, no care....this is the Banana Boat version of the MLB this season. It is damn hard to repeat or even make the playoffs in consecutive seasons in this sport, where playoffs are actually an exclusive club...and the Red Sox never ever got this season going. Eduardo has been one of the few bright spots for this team, and the main reason we are taking the safety of the run line here.

The Sox are 1 of their last 7 going back a month as a home favorite....that is SU....same record on the run line, with their one victory a 6-2 win.

MadBum has a solid amount of PAs against the lineup Cora will send out there today...and has just shut them down hard! Yesterday the Giants came out quick and put up a 3 spot in the top of the 1st...and the game was over...ending 11-3. The Sox facing LHP over the same period of time we used earlier are flat out BAD: since 9/1 the Sox against lefties-

-7 wRAA

.279 wOBA

just 69 wRC+

batting just .212 with a .290 OBP

The Giants again get to play with a DH today...and the Red Sox are sampling with all kind of different players and pitchers.

Sean Barber as the HPU today for this early get away day game (Boston heading to TB, the Giants staying on the east coast!) is a favorable bet for the away team as well...only aiding our cause in a game I think the Giants could rather easily win outright again today!
 

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MTI

4-Star BREWERS -155 over Padres
4-Star Giants +150 over RED SOX

4.5-Star Tigers at Indians UNDER 8.5
4-Star Phillies at Braves UNDER 8.5
 

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Jack Winningham

www.JackWinningham.com

Okay. We won again last night. The Tigers made it interesting, but faltered in extra innings and Cleveland prevailed. Again. Well, now instead of limiting the action, the off shores have just pushed Cleveland to astronomical money line favorites. Today, the Indians are -400 or more at every off shore. So, what to do? Well, I’m switching up, still taking the Indians, but I’m moving to the Run Line – meaning I’m gonna give Detroit 1.5 runs. So this means Cleveland must win by 2. With LH Danial Norris and the bullpen scheduled for today, I’m pretty confident that’s not going to be much of an issue.
RARELY if ever will I play the favorite on a ML that is over 300. I’ll NEVER play a ML that’s over 400. It’s just a stupid play. Now, I have no way to prove this – but I’ll tell ya anyway – the BEST play of the summer was going the OTHER direction on an insane ML play. Houston was -550 with the off shore I used. I read about a guy in Vegas at the MGM that placed a bet on Houston at like -590 and put 10’s of thousands on Houston to get what he was predicting was an easy win. Me? I went the opposite way, played a small $50 wager at +530 (I placed the bet too early and didn’t get the best line) converted my $50 into $265. THAT is how you deal with insane lines. 99.9% of the time, you pass. If you do your homework and think you’ve found a reason why the dog may actually win – then place a SMALL bet on the dog. Clowns like our MGM friend who throw tons of money on “Sure Things”, “Easy Wins”, and “Locks” are the reason Vegas was built up to what it is today.
So, I know there’s NFL action tonight. DON’T be that guy or gal that wagers just because the stinking game is on TV tonight. TV Tommy as I call him, losses lots of money this way. Ask yourself this about these Prime Time TV games: “IF this game were on at 1pm on Sunday, along with 9 other games, would I be betting on it?” If the answer isn’t an IMMEDIATE “YES!!” then why in the hell are you betting on it NOW? Your money plays the same on Sunday afternoon as it does on Thursday night. It’s value doesn’t change. And neither does the value of the PLAY you make. So – don’t be “TV TOMMY” and bet on a garbage game just because you have tonight off, your wife is going shopping, and you have a chance to catch a football game in peace. THAT my friends, is what FANTASY FOOTBALL is for – NOT Gambling. Not if you like your money that is.
Bottom line, the best value play tonight is the Cleveland Indians -175 Run Line @-1.5 vs the Tigers. Casino - BetNow.eu
Take half of what we’ve won on Tuesday and Wednesday – and put that on Cleveland. That way – you have a GUARANTEED profit on the Indians/Tigers series. And a guaranteed small profit is a GREAT THING. Remember – Money won is TWICE as sweet as money earned. (Gotta love that Fast Eddie Felson quote!)
 

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Miller locks

8:00 pm est ncaaf
houston u vs. Tulane

pick: Houston u +5 (-106)

risk: 11 units

8:20 pm est nfl
tennessee titans vs. Jacksonville jaguars

pick: Jacksonville jaguars +1.5 (-103)

risk: 11 units

8:20 pm est nfl
tennessee titans vs. Jacksonville jaguars

pick: Under 38 (+100)

risk: 11 units
 

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