Would you hedge the last leg of this 5 team teaser tonight?

DFerry5 · Sep 16, 2019

I made a quick 5 team NFL teaser Saturday for $30 to win $716.26. Did not expect to win, but the machine at the sports book wouldn’t give me change so I just said fuck it and did it.

well I hit the first four and now am the Jets +6.5 away from it cashing.

My question is: would YOU

hedge it with Browns -6.5 for a guaranteed return? If so, how much would you bet?
or
Tease it down from -6.5 and hope it hits in the middle? If so, what line would you tease it down to.

Or let it ride?

i want to add that I am not a HIGH LIMIT bettor, I usually wager 10-15 games a week between 100-150 a pop. I also have never done a parlay before and will not be doing one again and I know they are not profitable long term. I also know that I should never be in a position to hedge and I did this wrong. No, I do not NEED this money to survive or pay bills it’s just recreational money however $400 dollars guaranteed on a $30 bet seems better than nothing.. but $716 seems better than 400 lol.

just wanted to see what you guys would do if you were in my shoes.

Much appreciated!

Recon792 · Sep 16, 2019

i would hedge about 200 on this and let the rest ride - -
and treat it it like finding free money

X-Files · Sep 16, 2019

IMO it's just a matter of taste. Personally I'd hedge to win about 50% of the payout whichever way the game goes. Win-win.

FootballCapper123 · Sep 16, 2019

DFerry5 said:
I made a quick 5 team NFL teaser Saturday for $30 to win $716.26. Did not expect to win, but the machine at the sports book wouldn’t give me change so I just said fuck it and did it.

well I hit the first four and now am the Jets +6.5 away from it cashing.

My question is: would YOU

hedge it with Browns -6.5 for a guaranteed return? If so, how much would you bet?
or
Tease it down from -6.5 and hope it hits in the middle? If so, what line would you tease it down to.

Or let it ride?

i want to add that I am not a HIGH LIMIT bettor, I usually wager 10-15 games a week between 100-150 a pop. I also have never done a parlay before and will not be doing one again and I know they are not profitable long term. I also know that I should never be in a position to hedge and I did this wrong. No, I do not NEED this money to survive or pay bills it’s just recreational money however $400 dollars guaranteed on a $30 bet seems better than nothing.. but $716 seems better than 400 lol.

just wanted to see what you guys would do if you were in my shoes.

Much appreciated!

haha we are in the same boat except i got CLE ML tonight (teaser). i think i have an adv bec i can play NYJ ML and get +241 value from it while you'd have to risk nearly 3 to 1..... check out my other post and gimme your feedback

DFerry5 · Sep 16, 2019

FootballCapper123 said:
haha we are in the same boat except i got CLE ML tonight (teaser). i think i have an adv bec i can play NYJ ML and get +241 value from it while you'd have to risk nearly 3 to 1..... check out my other post and gimme your feedback

Haha yeah man it’s tricky considering the way the season has gone so far for both teams, nobody really knows anything. I agree that you have the advantage and I would 100 percent pull the trigger on the ML if our roles were reversed. Right now I’m leaning towards putting $200-$250 on the Browns -6.5 and risk losing a 1/3 of the profit vs losing all of it.

sunshine11 · Sep 16, 2019

Let it ride. Jets cover.

CouchQB · Sep 16, 2019

I would hedge it @ least 50% (358.00) of the payout guaranteed WIN-WIN situation its like free money IMHO

DFerry5 · Sep 16, 2019

CouchQB said:
I would hedge it @ least 50% (358.00) of the payout guaranteed WIN-WIN situation its like free money IMHO

Thank you for giving me a figure, I really appreciate it

Gaz · Sep 16, 2019

I hedge all the time unless I am 99% confident.

FootballCapper123 · Sep 16, 2019

CouchQB said:
I would hedge it @ least 50% (358.00) of the payout guaranteed WIN-WIN situation its like free money IMHO

I disagree with this... yeah it GUARANTEES the most amt of money but you are really screwing yourself of the potential $716 you could have won if you take an exact 50/50 split... i like putting 30-33% of your max to hedge, that way your original bet has more UMPH if you know what i mean

Rich3227 · Sep 16, 2019

Why do you gamble?.. I never understood hedging... you grab your balls and let it ride. Bang more on the jets at this point!!!

TheFalls · Sep 16, 2019

I would look to hedge 40/60. It feels much better to win a little more on your og play rather than just splitting down the middle. Sucks to come away empty at this point as well....

Gaz · Sep 16, 2019

Well that's really the question, do you gamble or do you play to make money? Hedging provides a means to guarantee making money. Letting it ride is gambling whereby you are going to win big or lose big. I understand hedging.

DFerry5 · Sep 16, 2019

I went ahead and hedged $356 on Browns -6.5. I’m way more of a single game bettor and to come out up $300+ on a bunch of NFL favorite ML that I never had to sweat. My takeaway from this is to never have the last leg of a teaser parlay be MNF, better to just bet the 4 games and go from there.

I appreciate all the feedback guys, thanks a lot!

Gaz · Sep 16, 2019

DFerry5 said:
I went ahead and hedged $356 on Browns -6.5. I’m way more of a single game bettor and to come out up $300+ on a bunch of NFL favorite ML that I never had to sweat. My takeaway from this is to never have the last leg of a teaser parlay be MNF, better to just bet the 4 games and go from there.

I appreciate all the feedback guys, thanks a lot!

Good luck. Hope you get both sides.

Recon792 · Sep 16, 2019

All the best tonight

TheFalls · Sep 16, 2019

DFerry5 said:
I went ahead and hedged $356 on Browns -6.5. I’m way more of a single game bettor and to come out up $300+ on a bunch of NFL favorite ML that I never had to sweat. My takeaway from this is to never have the last leg of a teaser parlay be MNF, better to just bet the 4 games and go from there.

I appreciate all the feedback guys, thanks a lot!

disagree...I don't do these plays, but you need the last leg to be after the other games to have any chance at a hedge.

Rich3227 · Sep 17, 2019

Hedge paid off.

Recon792 · Sep 17, 2019

Nice work

Gaz · Sep 17, 2019

Always hedge if you're in it to make money. If you're just in it to gamble then let it ride

Would you hedge the last leg of this 5 team teaser tonight?

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