I am HUGE (10-8 YTD ATS 56%) Week 4 picks and analysis

[FONT=&quot]Hereare my 7 picks for the week...analysis and write ups to follow:

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[FONT=&quot]coastal carolina - 17 UMASS[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]NEW MEXICO -5 new mexico state[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]FLORIDA -14 tennessee[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]kentucky +7 mississippi state[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]lsu -24 VANDERBILT[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]notre dame +13 1/2 GEORGIA[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]nevada -14 UTEP[/FONT]

coastal carolina - 17 UMASS

Right now there are 75 teams with a higher power rating than UMASS. What’s so bad about that you say? Let me be more specific. There are 75 teams in the FCS rated higher than UMASS. If UMASS in the IVY League, they would be ranked 7[SUP]th[/SUP] out of the 8 teams behind Princeton, Harvard, Yale, Dartmouth, Penn and Columbia. They will be playing this game in their home stadium which seats 17,000 people. Don’t hold your breath for a sell out.

UMASS has lost their first 3 games by an average of 29 points and their defense is giving up 48 points and 529 yards per game. Coastal Carolina will be the best team they have played so far this season. Coastal Carolina beat Kansas, a team that beat BC last week by 24 points. Coastal Carolina also beat Norfolk State by 39 points, a team ranked about one TD worse than UMASS (my math means that makes Coastal 32 points better than UMASS).

Coastal also gave Eastern Michigan a really tough game, losing 30-23 and holding them to under 3 yards per carry rushing. Had they not turned the ball over 4 times, it’s likely they could have won that game. Eastern Michigan won at Illinois last week. The Chanticleer defense held Kansas to 7 points…the same Kansas team that put up 48 points at BC. Coastal Carolina beat UMASS by 11 last year, but they are much better this year and UMASS is far worse.

UMass parties are legendary parties and the whole area knows it. What they don’t know apparently is that the UMASS defense is at these parties the night before the game and the morning of the game. It’s hard to imagine that Coastal Carolina will score less than 50 points, which makes this a ridiculously easy cover. Laying the 17 points which should be a halftime cover.

Huge......BOL with your action this week buddy.....indy

NEW MEXICO -5 new mexico state
Para bailar La Bamba
Para bailar La Bamba
Se necessita una poca de gracia
Una poca de gracia
Para mi, para ti, ay arriba, ay arriba
Ay, arriba arriba
Por ti sere, por ti sere, por ti sere

Los Lobos recorded this song which I have extreme trouble translating, but it has something to do with a dance. Your Mountain West New Mexico Lobos have been dancing with the New Mexico State Aggies for over 100 years and have been playing each other every year since World War II. What’s important about all of that is that the home team has won this game nearly 70% of the time over the last 20 years. New Mexico is home this year and they are indeed the better team. In fact, New Mexico State is ranked in the bottom 5 of FBS playing in the dungeon with the likes of UMASS, Akron, UTEP and Soylent Green. The poor Aggies have been smoted by the average score of 50 – 9 so far this season. Washington State found them to be an easier opponent than FCS Northern Colorado and San Diego State, which doesn’t even have an offense, was able to score 31 points on the Aggies.

While New Mexico suffered a similar fate when they went up to Notre Dame to get crucified by Touchdown Jesus, they do have one win this season under their belt – beating Sam Houston State 39-31. This victory, while against an FCS team, was against a team ranked #143 on the Sagarin scaled, compared to the New Mexico State ranking of #163. In essence, New Mexico proved that they could cover this spread against a better team than New Mexico State. On the contrary, New Mexico State hasn’t proven that they can cover the toilet when they flush it. The other revealing fact about this result is that New Mexico was able to put up 39 points against a Sam Houston team that only gave up 13.5 points in its other 2 games. So it looks like new Mexico State’s porous defense is going to yield at least 45 points to New Mexico. That means they will need to score 40 points to cover against New Mexico, when their best output this year has been 10 points. They can chuck the ball, but have only found the end zone three times this year.

Last year New Mexico won this rivalry game on the road by 17 points. New Mexico State looks to be much worse this year than last year. The Lobos starting QB, Brandt Hughes, has a shoulder injury and is questionable for the game. No matter…the Lobos like to run the ball and the Aggies can’t stop the run. The other options at QB for the Lobos are senior Sheriron Jones and redshirt sophomore Tevaka Tuioti. Jones played in relief of Hughes in the first game and was effective. Tuioti was the New Mexico starter last year so this is not a panic situation at all, but certainly may be a reason why the betting line is so attractive. The Lobos head coach, Bob Davie, did not make the trip to Notre Dame after a health scare but he’s back on twitter interviewing….that should energize the team. Having said that, New Mexico would win this game with Davey and Goliath as their coaches. Laying the 5 for the Lobos.

FLORIDA -14 tennessee

Good news for Gator fans. They are home against Tennessee where they have won 14 of the last 16 games played in Gainesville against the Vols. I had the chance to Google “shit show” today and the results kept coming up Jeremy Pruitt. Tennessee has played all 3 of their games this year at home and in their 2 FBS games, they lost. Last week they beat Chattanooga, a team ranked in the bottom half of the FCS. Big whoop. Tennessee lost 3 of their 4 road games last year. Now they have to go to the Swamp. Who knows what we’ll see out of Tennessee but it won’t be a good team.

People seem to already have forgotten that Florida came into this season with ridiculously high expectations. The Gators won last year’s game in Knoxville by 26 points. In their first game against Miami, they sacked the Hurricane quarterback 10 times. The Gators are number 1 in the FBS with 5.3 sacks per game. If the Vols think they can drop back and throw wherever they want against Florida, they’d better go back and look at the film. Florida really dominated Miami on the line of scrimmage and if it weren’t for their 4 turnovers, they would have beaten Miami by double digits. Miami is better than Tennessee. Last week Florida went to Kentucky to face a top 30 team and they beat Kentucky by 8. Speaking of 8…, Tennessee is ranked 88.

Look…Florida does not have their #1 QB anymore. Feleipe Franks was never that great and he was mistake prone. His backup, Kyle Trask will play against Tennessee. He’s not as athletic as Franks but he doesn’t make mistakes. He played great in finishing off Kentucky, completing 72% of his passes with no picks. Playing at home will be a much friendlier setting. Trask is a grad student getting his masters in Florida. Tennessee will be calling him Master after the end of the game on Saturday.

The difference in these two teams (other than the BIG fact that Florida is home) is that Florida has a great defense and the Tennessee has not come up big against good competition this year. It’s going to be a hot mess in the Swamp and they’ll be cleaning it up with Tennessee jerseys. Going with the chalk and the Gators laying 14.

kentucky +7 MISSISSIPPI STATE

The cowbells were clanging last week, but the Bulldogs couldn’t get it done in Starkville, not only did they not cover the spread as a favorite against Kansas State, they lost the game outright. Now they have conference foe Kentucky coming to town and are desperately in need of a victory. The only problem is, Kentucky got hosed last week and should have beaten a Florida team that is far superior to Mississippi State. So Kentucky is even MORE desperate for an SEC win.
Kentucky outplayed Florida last Saturday night. Losing their starting QB Terry Wilson was supposed to derail the Wildcats but their backup quarterback Sawyer Smith (Troy starting QB grad transfer) made the most of his unexpected opportunity going 23-for-35 for 267 yards and two touchdowns. Remember, this was against the vaunted Florida pass rush that hurried many of his throws. The Bulldogs just don’t have that kind of defense. They are stout up front but not a pass rushing team. There’s no pass rush and no pocket destruction. Smith is going to have a great day. The Miss St defense is still very good, but it’s not as good as it was last year, and Kentucky’s offense is definitely more diverse than they were last year when they were run dominated. So far this year they have been good on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down, converting 50% and ranked in the top 25 of FBS. By the way, Kentucky beat Mississippi 28-7 last year.

The same can’t be said about the middle of the Mississippi offense going into this week. Tommy Stevens was inaccurate last week against K-State and that was because of his shoulder injury. His status is still day to day which means that he isn’t feeling confident about his health. “Feeling good, just taking it day-by-day and continuing to do the things that I can to give myself a chance to play,” Stevens said, “I think I feel better.” That’s not a ringing endorsement. His backup, Garrett Shrader played more like the shredder machine in my office last week, going 4 – 12 for 51 yards passing and a QB rating of 42.2. Not quite Tua. To make things MUCH work, the Bulldog O-Line is really banged up. LG Parker is questionable for the game. Seniors Williams and Wilkerson - their starting Center and back up center – are BOTH questionable for the game. That is a recipe for disaster with a backup quarterback who hasn’t shown that he can play well. High snaps…low snaps…no snaps. Pre snap penalties, etc.

Look…this is going to be a close game, but Mississippi State’s defense has given up 22 points per game to the likes of Louisiana – Lafayette and Southern Miss. Kentucky is averaging 32 points per game and scored 21 on Florida. They slapped around two pretty good teams – Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Kentucky is going to score at least 28 against Mississippi State. Can the Bulldogs score 36 points with a banged up Tommy Stevens, a limping O-Line and perhaps a backup QB who averaged only 4.3 yards per pass against a Big 12 sieve defense. Me thinks not. Taking the 7 points and the ‘Cats.

lsu -24 VANDERBILT
Sound the trumpets. LSU finally has an offense. They have a Heisman Trophy candidate at QB looking to pad his stats and Vandy is candy. Obviously the only reservation here is that the Commodores are at home, but the nerds at Vandy will be back in the library at halftime and the stands will be full of the Geaux Tiger faithful who will be partying their asses off in Nashville on Saturday night.

LSU is averaging 55 points per game this year, with their lowest output against Texas (45), so it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they don’t score 49 on Vandy. Heck, they Bayou Bengals had 572 yards of offense against Texas. The Longhorns must have thought they were playing a Big 12 game. LSU’s opening 55-3 win over Georgia Southern is not to be easily dismissed as Georgia Southern is actually rated very similar to Vandy. LSU held them to less than 100 yards of offense. LSU wasn’t as sharp in their body bag game last week against Northwestern State and I am sure Ed Orangutan will be expecting better against Vandy, especially in their pass defense. They have yet to get an interception. That streak ends Saturday. LSU has a bye week next week followed by non-conference opponent Utah State so it’s imperative that they make a good showing this week to stay sharp and keep Jeff Burrow in the Heisman conversation. He’s completed 83% of his passes this season. That’s insane. Vandy’s pass rush is worse than an old lady looking both ways to cross the street. Expect at least 5 TD passes on Saturday from Burrow.

Vandy’s offense has really struggled and they are averaging only 15 points per game. They were only able to run the ball for 71 yards and 2.6 yards per carry against a generous Purdue defense. This means that Vandy won’t be able to shorten the game and limit LSU’s possessions, especially since the Tiger defense is only allowing 2.4 yards per carry so far this season. LSU will have no problem offsetting their passing attack as the Vandy defense is giving up 6.3 yards per rush. LSU will be able to pick their poison on offense…I’d be surprised if they end up punting more than once or twice this game (UGA only punted twice against Vandy). I am expecting a very big offensive output as LSU serves notice to the SEC in their first conference game. The Commodore defense will fade in the 90 degree Nashville noon sun and LSU will be able to pour it on in the second half as the game becomes out of reach. LSU’s defense will have a great day as Vandy has struggled on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down giving the Tigers bonus possessions after the intermission. Laying the 24 points. Geaux Tigers!

notre dame +13.5 GEORGIA

I really don’t know how good the Fighting Irish are this year. I also don’t know how good New Mexico is, the team that Notre Dame beat 66-14 last week. I do know that New Mexico hasn’t been beaten that badly in 8 years. Notre Dame’s defense didn’t look great against Louisville as the Cardinal was able to run the ball and scored 17 points. They also allowed New Mexico to run the ball well against the Notre Dame JV. So Notre Dame isn’t going to be able to stop the Georgia rushing attack. That’s good. Because it will shorten the game and make it harder for Georgia to cover the spread.

There is no question that Georgia is very good. They certainly pass the eye test. They have a great QB, a fearsome running attack and possibly the best defense in football. But don’t sleep on the Irish. Ian Book is a smart quarterback who knows how to move the chains and avoid making mistakes. I just love getting the points here and if Kelly can get his team to play through the echo of the whistle, then the cover will always be in play at the end. Give them the speech that no one respects us, we have our backs to the wall, win one for the Gipper, blah blah blah, yada yada yada. Georgia just might be that damn good…but we really don’t know it yet. Just give me the points and I’ll take my chances that UGA is content to win a close game and not get run over by Bevo.

Tulane is D E D

Tulane is terrible on both ends

then again...

3 good games tonight

..as predicted the Vandy fans will be headed to the library at halftime

Nevada -14 UTEP
UTEP struggled at home to beat Houston Baptist. If Nevada was playing Houston Baptist and only laying 14 points, there would be a line at the chalk window as long as the one outside Mendokers Bakery on Sunday morning. While UTEP may not be the worst team in FBS football, they are certainly in everyone’s bottom five. In their only FBS game, they scored 3 points. The UTEP coach uses two fullbacks in his backfield. Ordinarily, I love this kind of power football. But it doesn’t work when you can’t block and the defense knows that you can’t throw. As a result, UTEP hasn’t scored a touchdown yet against FBS competition.

What of the Nevada Wolfpack? I am going to ignore the Oregon disaster because UTEP simply does not compare offensively in any capacity to Oregon’s offense. In their other two games, both victories, Nevada beat a good offensive Purdue team 34-31 and also beat a top 10 FCS team, Weber State, 19-13. Weber State is probably 2 touchdowns better than UTEP, even though they play in the FCS (Weber has a great defense, losing only 6-0 to San Diego State). So if Nevada can score 34 on Purdue, you gotta believe that they’ll score at least 28 on UTEP. UTEP only scored 3 against Texas Tech and with their QB only completing 43% of his passes, it’s hard to imagine them making it past 10 points in this game. UTEP does not have a receiver on their team who had more than 10 catches last year. UTEP is going to try to run the ball, but they’ll be going right into the strength of Nevada’s team, which is their defensive line.
Nevada should have a fun time moving the ball in the air. UTEP is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes. If UTEP can’t move the chains running the ball, then Nevada will have a lot of passing possessions and UTEP can’t get to the quarterback with their impotent pass rush.

At the end of the day, it’s always fun to bet against the Miners when they play out of conference. They have lost five of their last six games ATS against alien competition. Speed kills and if you ain’t got it, you’re chasing it. That’s what UTEP is going to do against Nevada’s fleet receivers who will be catching 70% of the passes thrown. I am thinking a 21-3 halftime score with UTEP not being able to trade scores the rest of the game, so an easy cover for the Wolfpack.

Good stuff, entertaining too.
Thanks man.
Win or lose, you're stuff is informative and original.
Not the same crap u hear in a million other places.

Nevada covers...4-2 on the week so far. Let's see if ND can hang on, doesn't look like it.