Week 4: 7-3-2 on Large Plays

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Two smaller plays keeps me slightly in the red. Georgia and Charlotte won easily, but the BC loss is still a mystery. I guess BC benefitted too much from turnovers vs. VT, otherwise they would have lost.

YTD: 12-20, -1.70 units

Both of these moved while I researched them, for the worse.

5* Washington -6
Under Chris Petersen, the Huskies have won a number of big road games, and with BYU coming off two huge wins, both in OT, I think this is a good spot for them. They should have beat Cal in that long weather delay, and yet going into Provo 2-1 instead of 3-0 will give them extra incentive. I also think BYU has not been as impressive as their two wins seem to imply. Tennessee is mediocre, and outplayed BYU much of the game. And in both games, BYU benefitted a lot from penalties, turnovers, short fields, etc. They rarely sustained long drives. I think we'll see things even out here vs. well-disciplined Husky team that really has no glaring weaknesses. Also, like the coaching matchup. BYU also looks a little slow in their defensive back 7, and I think Washington breaks off some big plays. USC freshman QB, Kedon Slovis, looked very much like a freshman Saturday, with a number of miscues. In fact, USC played sloppy all night.


5* Baylor -27.5 This was 26.5 just an hour ago. Couple keys here: This will not feel much like a home game for Rice as Baylor fans will travel and likely fill up half the Rice Stadium. Also, the backup Baylor QB , and skill players, are dynamic and fast- so garbage time will not mean Rice gets a backdoor. Watch out for QB Gerry Bohanon to score a late TD or two when Charlie Brewer finally takes a seat. In watching Rice, I don't see how they score much at all. Terrible OL, with an immobile QB, and a sluggish running game. Rice also lacks the secondary/ linebacker speed to cover Baylor backs and receivers. Baylor finally shored up their leaky 2018 OL, and this is one reason HC Matt Rhule will likely have a Big 12 contender this season- that and finally getting a couple of good recruiting years that overhauled the personnel from the scandals of 3 years ago. Baylor gets some new defensive starters that will also make a difference from last year. Off a bye, they should roll.
 

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Fred.......well done with your major plays buddy..........continue your winning ways.....on both of these with you.......indy
 

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Thanks for sharing your plays and write ups!
 
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I really like that Washington pick!! I am going to pick this game myself and may just refer to your write up haha
 

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Good points on Baylor. They are much improved. Think I will tail you.
Thanks and good luck!
The Poet
 

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Writing this on my phone so it’s abbreviated. Boise has been practicing defending the Air Force offense since camp. They have faced it and other similar option offenses plenty. Air Force will have a much harder time defending the Boise offense, and are limited in passing if they get behind. Also, Boise clearly outplayed Marshall and should have covered. Boise being at home coming off a semi-bye vs. Portland St. Finally, this Boise D is one of the best they’ve fielded in the past few years.
 

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I am on that Baylor play myself.
 

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Finally hit a smaller play on Boise. Much respect to Air Force. They played well enough to cover.

3* Georgia -14 (-120) Just have to play Georgia. Got a feeling they are the new "Alabama"- a team that gets up for the better teams and blows them out. They're at home, at night, and too much pressure on Ian Book to be the savior here. Georgia could run the table this year all the way to the championship playoffs. They no longer look like the up and comer, and besides the talent, the excellent coaching, they also have that swagger of knowing they are better than their opponent. Georgia has also cleaned up the areas they were previously weaker- like the OL. They even beat you with their special teams units. If Georgia blows out ND here, you will be paying a high price to take them the rest of the 2019 season.
 

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1* Teaser(8 pt.) +120
Georgia -6.5
MSU/ Northwestern- under 44.5
Florida -6
Really like the under on the MSU- NW game because Northwestern has no chance to win unless they play great D. The number is just too low. Florida might actually play as well with their backup QBs instead of Franks. Everyone steps up to play better sometimes when a key player is out. Besides, the Vols are going to be a mess on offense vs. the Florida D.
 

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Have not been profitable this season so far on smaller plays, but going with these anyways:

1* Colorado +8.5 ASU looks overrated on both sides of the ball. Michigan State clearly outplayed them, but squandered so many chances to win. ASU freshman QB Jayden Daniels looks pretty raw, and holds the ball precariously. Don't forget ASU barely squeaked by a mediocre FCS team, Sacramento St, just 2 weeks ago. Colorado has one of the better QBs in the PAC 12 in Montez, and although they are inconsistent offensively, they can score in a hurry with Nixon or Shenault. ASU also could have a bit of a hangover from their MSU win, along with the fatigue from playing such a physical team. I just can't see ASU scoring much to cover this line.

.5 UCLA +18.5 Wazzu has played nothing but garbage defenses so far. Though UCLA has been an offensive mess, they very well might be able to hang around here with a good defensive effort. The Cougs really take their time driving down the field, and one miscue or 3rd down failure can prevent them from scoring. I just can't see UCLA continuing along this path of poor play throughout the season. They aren't THAT BAD. Chip Kelly is at a low point now as a coach, but I got a sense that UCLA will play better as their younger players get more experience.

.5 Kentucky +6 Kentucky has played well this season …….until the 4th quarter vs. Florida last week. Imagine where they'd be ranking-wise if they could have held on. Miss. State QB Tommy Stevens might play, but he won't be close to 100%. The backups are pretty inexperienced. The defense is also down a few notches due to their NFL draft losses. This game could go either way, and the 6 seems like a gift for what will likely be a close game. Kentucky's running game, like Kansas State's, should be able to move the ball on the Bulldogs.
 

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Out of all your picks which one do you think is most likely to win straight-up? Kentucky? Colorado? And why do you think everyone keeps telling me Tennessee? Almost everyone in my pool has picked Northwestern or Bowling Green
 

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Kentucky would be my choice. I wouldn't take the Vols with the point spread.
 

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