Aight folks. A buddy and I do a podcast where we talk through our "Top 10" each week, and banter back and forth on these games.
I cant post the podcast here because it gets flagged for "promotion," but I will post the iTunes link in the promotion forum in case anyone wants to hear 2 rednecks talk about college football.
Last Week: 2-1 +0.5*
Season: 5-4 +0.8*
Our plays:
May you take 'em or fade 'em, Good luck to all, this weekend!
5* Georgia -14
3* UL Lafayette -3'
3* Texas A&M -3'
2* Bowling Green +10'
2* Tulsa -3'
2* Tennessee +14
My writeups (pardon the spelling) from 1-10. Thoughts and comments are welcome!
I cant post the podcast here because it gets flagged for "promotion," but I will post the iTunes link in the promotion forum in case anyone wants to hear 2 rednecks talk about college football.
Last Week: 2-1 +0.5*
Season: 5-4 +0.8*
Our plays:
May you take 'em or fade 'em, Good luck to all, this weekend!
5* Georgia -14
3* UL Lafayette -3'
3* Texas A&M -3'
2* Bowling Green +10'
2* Tulsa -3'
2* Tennessee +14
My writeups (pardon the spelling) from 1-10. Thoughts and comments are welcome!
| Buffalo +14 vs. Temple | Line opened up 11' and is now sitting at 14. I understand the line movement, but don’t agree with it (thought it would be around 10). We were rightly on Temple, last week as they held Maryland in check (it seems like whenever I praise teams in the intro, they lay an egg that same week -Line Value), and the buffalo game was misleading. The lost 35-17 to Liberty (Im unsure what kind of medical chair Freeze was coahing in, but he needs to keep it), but they Out FD them 26-22and only got outgained by 28 yards. I like that Buffalo is coming back home where they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 HG. Had MD not won by a million in the first 2 weeks, I would peg this as a hangover game, but MD was a top 25 team, and now Temple has to travel for the first time this year coming off what ended up being a big win (maybe fraudulent). I am bucking the ypp in this one, so I hope it doesnt bite me I think Buffalo takes this one down to the wire, and loses a close one |
| Tennessee +14 @ Florida | I think this is a few too many points for florida to be laying with a new QB in Kyle Trask. I know, he came in and performed nicely LW, but it was with no pressure as he was down by a couple of scores when he entered the game. This week will be different, the pressure will be there and the tennessee D will have been preparing for him. This is a road series with the RT covering 8 of the last 11, and UT has some revenge from LY (the score was wide 26 points, but the stats were close 18 yards). After the first couple of rough weeks for UT, they were able to gain a little confidence by beating up on Chatt, and I'm not quite sure how UF will respond with Frank's absense. i peg this to be a lower scoring, sloppy game, and that favors the 2TD dog. I see no Ewing theory here. Watch out for the Vols. This one is decided late |
| Bowling green +10' @ Kent St | This is a hold your nose, play as neither of these teams are very good. Line opened 9' and is up to 10', and I am not sure how you can lay DD with this Kent St team. Ther offense cant move the ball (286 ypg) and their D cant stop anyone (500+ ypg). BG's stats arent much better, but they are better (352 O 348 D). Because of this, BG does have a YPP avd of 0.9. This is an underdog series(15-7 L22) and BG is playing with some 35-28 revenge in a game LY where they outgained the golden flashes. This is a winnable game for BG and they have a BYE on deck. Not a game I'll watch so I'll wake up sunday to check the score. |
| UL Lafayette +3' @ Ohio | This line is a headscratcher. I think they have the wrong team favored. ULL has the 4th ranked offense in the country gaining nearly 600 ypg @ 8+ ypp and a defense that is over 1 ypp better (overall 2.72 ypp advantage). Not that there is a great HFA at Peden stadium, but this si a bad matchup in the ground game. ULL averages 8 ypr and Ohio gives up over 5. This should tranlsate nicely on the road (this is ULL first RG of the season). ULL is on a 7-3 ATS run and own a 2.72 ypp adv, and I think that will continue. I'll take the better Offense and defense (in both phases). The only reason this game isnt higher on the list is the Frank Solich effect. His bobcats only returned 10 total starters from last year, so I think they will still sputter. I like ULL to win a close game, here |
| Charlotte +41 @ Clemson | I simply think this line is too high. I expected something around 38. I think Charlotte is much better than their name, and I still get the sene that Clemson is sleepwalking with a champioship hangover. No real look ahead on Clemson's schedule, but there is an ACC foe on deck at Chapel Hill. I think Charlotte can do enough to keep this one inside the number. The 49er offense is ranked 17th in the country (albeit against inferior opponents) which is only 22 ypg lower than Clemson's. Charlote is on a 7-3 ATS run. I believe this is a good spot for an offensively confident Charlotte team after 3 good outings (Clem only has a 1.3 ypp advantage; big, but not 41 pt fav big). It's an obvious step up in class, and I do expect the game to never be in doubt, but i think Charlotte keeps is closer than 41. |
| Texas A&M -3' vs. Auburn | Another head scratching line as I thought it would be in the 6-7 range. aTm has the more talented squad and have been cash as of late (19-7-1 ATS L27 games). Auburn, on the other hand, brings a freshman QB into Kyle field who is completing just 52% of his passes, and has only covered 3 of the last 11 against winning teams. aTm comes in with a .53 ypp advantage. These are similar teams, but I like the one at home with a better coach, slightly better on both sides of the ball, and playing within their friendly confines. Also, let me remind you of this game last year Texas am 28-13 FD adv, 423-278 yards adv and lost the game 28-24 in the last 1:41 in the game (mostly thanks to a -3 TO margin). Don't think Jimbo wont have his guys ready. I like aTm to win this game by double digits. |
| Oregon -10' @ Stanford | I think this is a pure talent mismatch (agree with the line movement from 8 to 10'). Oregon has looked sharp the past couple of week (albeit against inferior opponents) after their 1 bad quarter gainst Auburn in week 1. The demoralizing affect of that game is gone, and they still believe they can go undefeated, win P12, and get into the Playoff. Stanford is simply not the stanford of old. They graduated 12 starters LY, and havent found any rhythym getting blown out @USC and UCF. There is some triple revenge here as Stan has won the previous 3 meeting. Last year really stung as Oregon outgained them by 125 yards. So far this year, Oregon has a 4.2 ypp advantage, mostly due to the fact that surpisingly Stanford cant stop anyone. I think Oregon takes the chance to take a big swing at a perenial powerhouse and justin Herbert to light up this D. I'm looking for the ducks to buck a few trends here and hand the Cardinal their 3rd straight bad loss. Ducks by 3 TDs |
| Washington St -18' vs. UCLA | I was low on Washington St at the beginning of the season, but they have been impressive. Unlike them, UCLA has been abysmal…to the point that Chip Kelly has copmletely lost his team and even mentioned he wished he ran the wishbone. These are 2 programs going in the wrong direction. Anthony Gordon has stepped right in and filled she shoes left by G. Mishew, completeing nearly 80% of his passes. The bad news for UCLA is that they cant stop the pass. All of this points to the highest YPP adv, this week (5.96 for Wazzou). WSU is on an 11-2-1 ATS run vs. UCLA. I dont see this one being close after the opening kickoff. We know that national treasure Mike Leach will not be afraid to bury his oponents, and will not let up. Give me the Cougs -18' |
| Georgia -14 vs. Notre Dame | I love this matchup for the Bulldogs for 1 main reason. The ground game. Georgia comes into this game with a 2.07 ypp advantage, but most of this due to the aforementioned ground attack. UGA's Oline and RB Swift sohlud be able to do whatever they like. The average nearly 8 ypr and notre dame gives up a whopping 5.1 ypr. This is not what you want to see when traveling to a raucus environment at Sanford stadium to play potentially the best team in the country. I think Kirby will have his boys ready to play as this is the first marquee game pf the year. Having opened with Vandy, MurraySt, and ArkSt, I cant fathom that they have been preparing for Dame for a month now. Georgia are 11-4 ATS L15 vs. teams w/ winning record. Some of the credit for ND success is the + TO margin in each of thier first 2 games (something I dont expect to happen in this game). Also note, the last 15 home games for UGA, they've won all of them by 14+ and 13 of them have been by 21+. Look for Swift ot join the Heisman party, after this week. I like the Dogs in a rout |
| Wisconsin -3' vs. Michigan | I love the Badgers in this spot and am glad the line is no more than a field goal (I had a feeling someone still respected Mich...not me). I think Wisconsin is the better team. Both teams have played only 2 games, this year and come into this one off a bye (and both have played similar caliber opponents). I am still unable to trust Harbaugh as a dog. Why? because he's yet to win a game as an underdog (0-6, thanks Fallica), and I dont think it starts on Saturday. Wisconsin comes into this game with a 3.6 ypp advantage, and I expect them to control the game. I love the matchup of the Wisky D aginst the overrated QB1 Patterson (I have never been impressed with this kid) who I believe is unable to make big plays in big games. The more Wisconsin plays, the more i like them. I get the better offense, better defense, better coach, the home team with a great HFA, some 38-13 revenge from LY, in a series where the home team has won 9 of last 10 and I only have to lay 3. Please and thank you. I think Wisconsin wins realtively easily in Camp Randall. |
