2019 Mistaflava CFB Record: 24-19-1 ATS (+46.00 Units)
2019 Mistaflava CFB *Big Plays*: 1-0 ATS (+25.00 Units)
Back for another season and hopefully in my element for what should be an incredible year in College Football. I will be post my picks and writeups every week on this message board (exclusively for now) and look forward to discussions, opinions, critics, sharing picks and just about everything else associated with handicapping this great sport.
Feel free to drop a line and let's talk some football!
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS 2019 SEASON!
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Thursday, September 19
Tulane Green Wave -4 (10 Units)
The Houston Cougars are only a shell of what they were last season when they scored 43.9 points per game and averaged 513 total yards of offense. Most of their offense is back for another run (8 returning starters) but it's hard to keep up with opponents when your defense can't stop anything. So far the Cougars are 1-2 SU and ATS on the season with their one and only win coming against an FCS opponent Prairie View A&M in Week 2 of the season but even then their defense allowed 17 points at home and they outyarded them by only 62 yards. In their other two games this season Houston was outyarded by 122 yards against Washington State but scored a late touchdown to cover the spread in a neutral field loss and they were outyarded by 278 in their season opener against Oklahoma State, a game that the Sooners should have won by 40. What's scary for Houston tonight is the fact that it's quite possible that Tulane is the best defense they have seen all season even with the games against Washington State and Oklahoma. The Green Wave return 8 defensive starters this season and they have allowed only 14.7 points per game on only 276 total yards of offense and 4.3 yards per play. The Cougars come in averaging 30.7 points per game on 385 total yards and 5.7 yards per play which is pretty decent. Tulane's defensive line was ranked #26 in the Country coming into the season (Oklahoma was #22 and Washington State #51) and that's a massive problem for a Houston offense that relies very heavily on the run (238.7 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry). So far this season the Green Wave allow only 95 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry. In the air, QB Deriq King has completed only 54.5% of his passes for 5.6 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 116.4. The Tulane defense is allowing opponents to complete only 52.5% of their passes for 181 passing yards per game and only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. That D-Line is going to be all over King who has been sacked 9 times this season. Tulane's defense has forced 7 turnovers this season. Expect a top notch effort from this unit in a revenge game.
The Tulane Green Wave were embarrassed in Houston last season going down 48-17 to the Cougars as a +8 point road underdog. This program is coming off it's first Bowl Win since 2002 when they crushed Louisiana in the Cure Bowl last season giving them tremendous momentum heading into the season. They have 13 total starters back on both sides of the ball combined and although they failed to cover the spread in a road game at Auburn (missed by 1.5) they have been electric in their other two games outyarding Florida International by 278 total yards in a 42-14 home win and outyarding Missouri State by 358 total yards last week in another big 58-6 home win. They have allowed a total of only 20 points at home this season and allowed 30+ zero times in all their home games in 2018. As a matter of fact the last time they allowed 30+ at home was back in 2017 when #16 ranked South Florida came to town but they covered the +11 point spread in that game. Oh and Tulane has an offense too. That offense is averaging 45.3 points per game on 436 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play this season. Houston's defense returns only 4 starters this season from a 2018 defense that was one of the worst in school history and so far they've allowed 40.0 points per game versus FBS opponents. Overall, and this is counting the Prairie View A&M game, this Houston defense has allowed 497.7 total yards of offense and allowed 7.5 yards per play. That won't cut it against this potent Tulane offense who run the ball well (43.7 times per game for 256 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry per game) and who can throw the ball too (7.2 yards per pass attempt and their QBs have a QB Rating of 124.3). The offensive line has been great (1 sack allowed) and Tulane has turned the ball over only 3 times total. Houston's defense has only 5 sacks on the season and opposing QB's have an average QB Rating of 162.8 and have thrown for 340 yards per game on 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Tulane loves to run the ball and they should have tons of success keeping Houston off the field as the Cougs allowed 5.3 yards per carry this season. If Tulane stays out of early penalty trouble they'll blow the Cougars out.
This is a big game for the Tulane program and Head Coach Willie Fritz. The players have bought into his system and his ways, they are coming off their first Bowl Game win since 2002 and they are out for revenge in this game. Right now the public is smashing Houston yet the line moved the other way all week and went from -3 (opening) to -5 with all the money on the Cougs. It doesn't add up. Houston has no defense and Tulane does. Looking back at how Houston plays on the road they are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and they were 0-1 ATS as a road underdog in 2018 (1-0 ATS this season). The Cougars are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a winning record and although they are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings (a big reason so many will be on them), this is the first time during that span that they are underdogs and there is a reason for that. Tulane is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games and again they are on a streak of 10 home games without allowing 30+ points. I'm going with the Green Wave on National TV in a big revenge win.
Trend of the Game: Tulane is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Home Games.
Tulane 34, Houston 16
more to come...
2019 Mistaflava CFB *Big Plays*: 1-0 ATS (+25.00 Units)
Back for another season and hopefully in my element for what should be an incredible year in College Football. I will be post my picks and writeups every week on this message board (exclusively for now) and look forward to discussions, opinions, critics, sharing picks and just about everything else associated with handicapping this great sport.
Feel free to drop a line and let's talk some football!
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS 2019 SEASON!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, September 19
Tulane Green Wave -4 (10 Units)
The Houston Cougars are only a shell of what they were last season when they scored 43.9 points per game and averaged 513 total yards of offense. Most of their offense is back for another run (8 returning starters) but it's hard to keep up with opponents when your defense can't stop anything. So far the Cougars are 1-2 SU and ATS on the season with their one and only win coming against an FCS opponent Prairie View A&M in Week 2 of the season but even then their defense allowed 17 points at home and they outyarded them by only 62 yards. In their other two games this season Houston was outyarded by 122 yards against Washington State but scored a late touchdown to cover the spread in a neutral field loss and they were outyarded by 278 in their season opener against Oklahoma State, a game that the Sooners should have won by 40. What's scary for Houston tonight is the fact that it's quite possible that Tulane is the best defense they have seen all season even with the games against Washington State and Oklahoma. The Green Wave return 8 defensive starters this season and they have allowed only 14.7 points per game on only 276 total yards of offense and 4.3 yards per play. The Cougars come in averaging 30.7 points per game on 385 total yards and 5.7 yards per play which is pretty decent. Tulane's defensive line was ranked #26 in the Country coming into the season (Oklahoma was #22 and Washington State #51) and that's a massive problem for a Houston offense that relies very heavily on the run (238.7 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry). So far this season the Green Wave allow only 95 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry. In the air, QB Deriq King has completed only 54.5% of his passes for 5.6 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 116.4. The Tulane defense is allowing opponents to complete only 52.5% of their passes for 181 passing yards per game and only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. That D-Line is going to be all over King who has been sacked 9 times this season. Tulane's defense has forced 7 turnovers this season. Expect a top notch effort from this unit in a revenge game.
The Tulane Green Wave were embarrassed in Houston last season going down 48-17 to the Cougars as a +8 point road underdog. This program is coming off it's first Bowl Win since 2002 when they crushed Louisiana in the Cure Bowl last season giving them tremendous momentum heading into the season. They have 13 total starters back on both sides of the ball combined and although they failed to cover the spread in a road game at Auburn (missed by 1.5) they have been electric in their other two games outyarding Florida International by 278 total yards in a 42-14 home win and outyarding Missouri State by 358 total yards last week in another big 58-6 home win. They have allowed a total of only 20 points at home this season and allowed 30+ zero times in all their home games in 2018. As a matter of fact the last time they allowed 30+ at home was back in 2017 when #16 ranked South Florida came to town but they covered the +11 point spread in that game. Oh and Tulane has an offense too. That offense is averaging 45.3 points per game on 436 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play this season. Houston's defense returns only 4 starters this season from a 2018 defense that was one of the worst in school history and so far they've allowed 40.0 points per game versus FBS opponents. Overall, and this is counting the Prairie View A&M game, this Houston defense has allowed 497.7 total yards of offense and allowed 7.5 yards per play. That won't cut it against this potent Tulane offense who run the ball well (43.7 times per game for 256 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry per game) and who can throw the ball too (7.2 yards per pass attempt and their QBs have a QB Rating of 124.3). The offensive line has been great (1 sack allowed) and Tulane has turned the ball over only 3 times total. Houston's defense has only 5 sacks on the season and opposing QB's have an average QB Rating of 162.8 and have thrown for 340 yards per game on 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Tulane loves to run the ball and they should have tons of success keeping Houston off the field as the Cougs allowed 5.3 yards per carry this season. If Tulane stays out of early penalty trouble they'll blow the Cougars out.
This is a big game for the Tulane program and Head Coach Willie Fritz. The players have bought into his system and his ways, they are coming off their first Bowl Game win since 2002 and they are out for revenge in this game. Right now the public is smashing Houston yet the line moved the other way all week and went from -3 (opening) to -5 with all the money on the Cougs. It doesn't add up. Houston has no defense and Tulane does. Looking back at how Houston plays on the road they are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and they were 0-1 ATS as a road underdog in 2018 (1-0 ATS this season). The Cougars are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a winning record and although they are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings (a big reason so many will be on them), this is the first time during that span that they are underdogs and there is a reason for that. Tulane is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games and again they are on a streak of 10 home games without allowing 30+ points. I'm going with the Green Wave on National TV in a big revenge win.
Trend of the Game: Tulane is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Home Games.
Tulane 34, Houston 16
more to come...