Mistaflava's CFB Week 4 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2019 Mistaflava CFB Record: 24-19-1 ATS (+46.00 Units)
2019 Mistaflava CFB *Big Plays*: 1-0 ATS (+25.00 Units)


Back for another season and hopefully in my element for what should be an incredible year in College Football. I will be post my picks and writeups every week on this message board (exclusively for now) and look forward to discussions, opinions, critics, sharing picks and just about everything else associated with handicapping this great sport.

Feel free to drop a line and let's talk some football!

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS 2019 SEASON!

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Thursday, September 19



Tulane Green Wave -4 (10 Units)

The Houston Cougars are only a shell of what they were last season when they scored 43.9 points per game and averaged 513 total yards of offense. Most of their offense is back for another run (8 returning starters) but it's hard to keep up with opponents when your defense can't stop anything. So far the Cougars are 1-2 SU and ATS on the season with their one and only win coming against an FCS opponent Prairie View A&M in Week 2 of the season but even then their defense allowed 17 points at home and they outyarded them by only 62 yards. In their other two games this season Houston was outyarded by 122 yards against Washington State but scored a late touchdown to cover the spread in a neutral field loss and they were outyarded by 278 in their season opener against Oklahoma State, a game that the Sooners should have won by 40. What's scary for Houston tonight is the fact that it's quite possible that Tulane is the best defense they have seen all season even with the games against Washington State and Oklahoma. The Green Wave return 8 defensive starters this season and they have allowed only 14.7 points per game on only 276 total yards of offense and 4.3 yards per play. The Cougars come in averaging 30.7 points per game on 385 total yards and 5.7 yards per play which is pretty decent. Tulane's defensive line was ranked #26 in the Country coming into the season (Oklahoma was #22 and Washington State #51) and that's a massive problem for a Houston offense that relies very heavily on the run (238.7 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry). So far this season the Green Wave allow only 95 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry. In the air, QB Deriq King has completed only 54.5% of his passes for 5.6 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 116.4. The Tulane defense is allowing opponents to complete only 52.5% of their passes for 181 passing yards per game and only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. That D-Line is going to be all over King who has been sacked 9 times this season. Tulane's defense has forced 7 turnovers this season. Expect a top notch effort from this unit in a revenge game.

The Tulane Green Wave were embarrassed in Houston last season going down 48-17 to the Cougars as a +8 point road underdog. This program is coming off it's first Bowl Win since 2002 when they crushed Louisiana in the Cure Bowl last season giving them tremendous momentum heading into the season. They have 13 total starters back on both sides of the ball combined and although they failed to cover the spread in a road game at Auburn (missed by 1.5) they have been electric in their other two games outyarding Florida International by 278 total yards in a 42-14 home win and outyarding Missouri State by 358 total yards last week in another big 58-6 home win. They have allowed a total of only 20 points at home this season and allowed 30+ zero times in all their home games in 2018. As a matter of fact the last time they allowed 30+ at home was back in 2017 when #16 ranked South Florida came to town but they covered the +11 point spread in that game. Oh and Tulane has an offense too. That offense is averaging 45.3 points per game on 436 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play this season. Houston's defense returns only 4 starters this season from a 2018 defense that was one of the worst in school history and so far they've allowed 40.0 points per game versus FBS opponents. Overall, and this is counting the Prairie View A&M game, this Houston defense has allowed 497.7 total yards of offense and allowed 7.5 yards per play. That won't cut it against this potent Tulane offense who run the ball well (43.7 times per game for 256 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry per game) and who can throw the ball too (7.2 yards per pass attempt and their QBs have a QB Rating of 124.3). The offensive line has been great (1 sack allowed) and Tulane has turned the ball over only 3 times total. Houston's defense has only 5 sacks on the season and opposing QB's have an average QB Rating of 162.8 and have thrown for 340 yards per game on 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Tulane loves to run the ball and they should have tons of success keeping Houston off the field as the Cougs allowed 5.3 yards per carry this season. If Tulane stays out of early penalty trouble they'll blow the Cougars out.

This is a big game for the Tulane program and Head Coach Willie Fritz. The players have bought into his system and his ways, they are coming off their first Bowl Game win since 2002 and they are out for revenge in this game. Right now the public is smashing Houston yet the line moved the other way all week and went from -3 (opening) to -5 with all the money on the Cougs. It doesn't add up. Houston has no defense and Tulane does. Looking back at how Houston plays on the road they are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and they were 0-1 ATS as a road underdog in 2018 (1-0 ATS this season). The Cougars are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a winning record and although they are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings (a big reason so many will be on them), this is the first time during that span that they are underdogs and there is a reason for that. Tulane is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games and again they are on a streak of 10 home games without allowing 30+ points. I'm going with the Green Wave on National TV in a big revenge win.

Trend of the Game: Tulane is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Home Games.


Tulane 34, Houston 16





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Gl flags...

*flava

The streak of 10 games without allowing 30 at home is over for Tulane defense who for some reason came out nervous and clueless but had a monster 2nd half allowing only 3 points. Lucky win in the end but not really because the Tulane D played the way it was supposed to in the second half. Congrats to all Green Wave backers! Back at it tomorrow night.

Mr. Flava...….well done buddy.....look forward to your Fri. thought's...…..indy

Good Job Flav.. Keep it going!

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Friday, September 20



Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -7 (10 Units)

The Florida International Panthers engraved one thing in everyone's mind this 2019 college football season and that was their season opening 42-14 loss at Tulane as a +3 point road underdog. Most of the time you give teams a week or two to see what they are all about but the Panthers followed that up with a 20-14 home loss to Western Kentucky as a -8 point favorite and then barely got by FCS opponent New Hampshire last week, once again at home and once again failing to cover the -13.5 spread to start the season 0-3 ATS. Their star QB James Morgan was OUT last week and his status for tonight is unknown only hours before gametime. Even if he plays hurt, Morgan has completed only 48.9% of his passes for 5.2 yards per pass attempt, 1 Touchdown, 1 Interception and a QB Rating of 95.3. Nothing to write home about. The offense has been atrocious this season averaging 19.0 points per game on 307.0 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. Louisiana Tech's defense has allowed only 22.0 points per game on 399.7 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play. If Morgan can't go then backup QB Kaylan Wiggins gets the call. He rushed for some 140+ yards and 2 touchdowns in the win last week but runs into a Bulldogs defense allowing only 3.8 yards per carry this season. In the air the Panthers passing attack with either QB has been atrocious completing only 50.7% of their passes and it doesn't get any easier tonight against a Louisiana Tech D that is allowing only 5.9 yards per pass attempt and that has forced 3 turnovers on the season. Status unclear for FIU's star QB tonight means stay away or fade.

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have a good enough team to win the CUSA Conference for the first time under Skip Holtz but Conference play has always been a question mark for this group and I think a lot of emphasis has been put on playing well against other CUSA opponents. That all starts tonight for this group. Sure the Bulldogs are 2-1 SU and only 1-2 ATS but they looked good last week in their blowout win over Bowling Green on the road. The Grambling game was just meh (they were outyarded in their home opener by an FSC foe) but you have to give this team props for being outyarded by only 41 yards at Texas to open the season (despite the 45-14 loss). This offense comes into this game averaging 23.0 points per game but they've done that on 418.7 total yards of offense (more than 100 yards per game more than Florida International) and 5.9 yards per play. It's been a rough start to the season for the running game as they've averaged only 3.6 yards per carry but this will be their breakout game against an FIU defense that is allowing 198 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry this season. In the air the Bulldogs have been a big play offense so far in 2019 completing 68.5% of their passes for 294.7 passing yards and 8.0 yards per pass attempt. That's a problem for FIU because the Panthers D has allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt so far this season and opposing QB's have been sacked only 2 times in three games. With more time to throw this Bulldogs passing game, who have allowed their QB to be sacked 8 times this season, could do some serious damage and I think they will. Expect a breakout performance from this group.

Looking back at the very short history between these two schools, none of the three career meetings have been close. Louisiana Tech has gone 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in those meetings beating the Panthers by 16 on the road in 2013, by 10 at home in 2015 and by 18 on the road in 2016. The average win margin by 15 points per game. I think a lot of people are going to be stuck on the fact that Florida International won every single conference road game in 2018 (4-0) but they were a pick em or favorite in all of those games. Not this time around. As much as I think things change in conference play the Panthers have struggled too much and there are too many questions surrounding their starting QB tonight. Louisiana Tech is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up win and 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in September. Bulldogs win big and so does the public unless I'm missing something.

Trend of the Game: Louisiana Tech is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up win.


Louisiana Tech 47, Florida International 22





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Air Force Falcons +7.5 (10 Units)

I never hesitate when I place wagers but I know some people do when good teams go on the road to play on Boise State's blue turf. It's intimidating, it's different and it's not easy to play on but if you think for one second that this Troy Calhoun led Air Force Falcons team cares, you're making a big mistake. The Broncos are 30-5 SU at home under Bryan Harsin but one of those losses was to this Air Force team back in 2015 when the Falcons came here as a +11 point underdog and shocked the college football world with a 37-30 win. In 2017 things didn't go so well as the Falcons lost 44-19 as a +17 point underdog but that was a re-building year and they were returning only 7 total starters from the 2016 team. This year Air Force returns a whopping 14 starters, they made Phil Steele's coveted MOST IMPROVED LIST and they have their best team in probably 100 years which is saying quite a bit. Look at their record as an away underdog since 2015. It's insane. They are 11-3-1 ATS in those situations with 4 straight up wins. Look at last week. They went to Colorado as a +3 point underdog and won 30-23. The offense is firing on all cylinders averaging 39.0 points per game and 454 total yards of offense on 7.0 yards per play. Boise State's defense is supposed to be notch and have some NFL prospects on it but so far they've allowed 5.0 yards per play and have not really been tested the way they will be tonight. We all know what kind of running offense Air Force runs and they average 58.5 running plays per game this season for 356 rushing yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Boise State's D-Line (NFL prospects and all) has allowed 108.7 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. Not the greatest numbers. In the air the Falcons throw the ball only 6.5 times per game (13 times total so far this season) but they are averaging a crazy 15.1 yards per pass attempt and the Boise secondary has given up big plays this season and allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Boise State pass rush (again the NFL talent) will be neutralized because the Air Force doesn't throw enough making the Broncos 13 sacks on the season kind of irrelevant. Air Force averages only 3.0 penalties per game and are one of the more disciplined teams in the Country. That's what you need to win games in Boise and I think the Falcons have a shot in this one.

The myth continues that going on the road and beating Boise State is the most impossible thing in college football but Marshall was here a couple of weeks ago and they showed why that saying is indeed just a myth. Boise State is only 12-22 ATS under Bryan Harsin as a Home Favorite so I still don't see why so many people want to back them when good teams come to town. When they go on the road like they did in Tallahassee that's an entirely different story and they carry a ton of value but their only home cover of the season was last week against FCS opponent Portland State. Let's not forget what happened to this Boise State team just one year ago at home in their home opener against San Diego State as -14 point home favorite. They lost straight up while returning 15 starters. This season they return only 13. The Broncos offense is prolific and will score points no matter what as they average 31.7 points per game and average 516.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.0 yards per play. Air Force's defense has yet to be tested this season although you could argue that going on the road in the PAC 12 Conference was a good test and they passed. They are allowing only 15.0 points per game on 243 total yards of offense per game and 3.9 yards per play. The Broncos love to control the clock, run a ton more plays than their opponent and outyard their opponents. Well running the ball has not been easy this season as Boise State averaged only 3.8 yards per carry and now face an Air Force defense that has allowed only 90 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. In the air QB Hank Bachmeier has been very good but he's also made a ton of mistakes throwing for 4 Touchdown Passes and 3 Interceptions with a QB Rating of 139.2 while averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt. He's been sacked 11 times in three games this season and will face an Air Force pass rush that has 8 sacks in their two games and who have picked off 2 passes this season and recovered one fumble. Boise State's offense is scoring touchdowns only 57.1% of the time in the Red Zone this season so expect a lot of big drives to end with Field Goals (the Broncos have already attempted 8 of them in three games which is unusual). This defense is not the best in the Country but they do make some big plays and are not afraid.

Air Force came so close to beating Boise State at home last season. It was a 3 point game late and Boise State scored a touchdown to not only win but also cover the -9 point spread despite the effort by the home side. This season the Falcons have their best team ever and they aren't just going away. Playing as a road dog two weeks in a row obviously can't be easy but Air Force has been there and done that and the start of Conference play should have them fired up and confident. The Falcons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus teams with a winning record on the season and they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games played in September. Now is the time to bet on them. Boise State has a pretty good record playing in Friday night games (4-1 ATS their last five) but again they have covered the spread in only 8 of their last 25 home games overall and in only 7 of their last 22 games versus teams with a winning record on the season. Air Force is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and have been an underdog in all those meetings. I say this is a close game that possibly goes to overtime. The best Air Force team in 100 years wins it.

Trend of the Game: Air Force is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.


Air Force 28, Boise State 27




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Southern California Trojans +3.5 (10 Units)

The Utah Utes already proved themselves on the road in 2019 by opening their season at BYU and beating their arch nemesis 30-12 as a -5 point road underdog. Despite the big win in that game the Utes outyarded BYU by only 68 total yards and had to rely on their defense to force some huge turnovers to get the big win. Will that work at USC tonight? Not so sure. Utah failed to cover the spread in their last two games despite winning both but they did outyard both Northern Illinois and Idaho State by pretty large margins. The offensive numbers for the season look great on Utah as they average 32.0 points per game on 439.3 total yards of offense and a whopping 7.2 yards per play but most of that was against their last two opponents as huge favorites. USC's defense has been on the field a lot and have allowed 24.3 points per game but they are allowing only 5.6 yards per play and have found a way to make big plays. Utah loves to run the ball and they average 40.3 carries per game for 226 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry but the Trojans run defense has some big bodies and despite allowing 145 rushing yards per game this season USC has allowed only 4.0 yards per carry and don't allow too many chunk plays. In the air Utah QB Tyler Huntley has been lights out completing 77.8% of his passes for 602 passing yards, 11.2 yards per pass attempt, 4 Touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and a QB Rating of 195.9 on the season. WOW! The bad news here is that Huntley has not seen a pass rush like USC's (9 sacks) yet this season and despite allowing big plays this season the Trojans secondary is allowing opponents to complete only 56.9% of their passes 4 turnovers on the season. The Trojans defense has forced 11 FG attempts in three games and they don't allow too many touchdowns and have shown some resilience in the Red Zone which will be huge in this game because Utah will get their yardage. The Trojans D should be able to hold them to FG's and force some turnovers in this game.

The Southern California Trojans season took a turn for the bad when QB JT Daniels went down for the season but little did this program know that they had a tremendous player Quarterback waiting in his wings in QB Kedon Slovis. The Trojans are coming off a heartbreaking loss at BYU where they had to watch the Cougars fans rush onto the field after the upset win. USC was -5 in that game and the Cougars were due for a big home win over a Power 5 Conference School under coach Sitake. You have to hand it to the Cougars they played well. How quickly people forget that this is the same USC team that knocked the socks off of Stanford at home a couple of weeks ago in a 45-20 win as a -3 point home favorite. There is little or no history whatsoever of USC being a home underdog of less than 5 points. I looked it up and it's hard to find. The last time was in 2013 and overall the Trojans are 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS in those games. The offense is on fire and has not skipped a beat since JT Daniels went down. They are averaging 34.3 points per game on 463.7 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play in those games. Wow! Utah's defense hasn't allowed too much when it comes to points (9.7 Points Per Game) or yardage (239.3 total yards per game) but they have allowed 4.5 yards per play and have yet to face an opponent with balance. The Trojans run the ball 36.3 times per game for 153.7 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry but running the ball won't be easy on the Utes tremendous D-Line who have allowed next to nothing on the ground this season (2.7 yards per carry). The air attack is my focus here. QB Kedon Slovis is playing his first home game as an underdog and he's been great. Sort of. He has completed 77.3% of his passes for 715 passing yards, 9.5 yards per pass attempt, 5 Touchdown Passes, 4 Interceptions and a QB Rating of 168.7. Interceptions and turnovers have been a prolem but despite the 4 interceptions on the season Utah has only 5 turnovers on defense and have played no real opponnets on the season. USC has been scoring touchdowns 85.7% of the time in the Red Zone this season and Utah's opponents have attempted only 3 FG's all season. I really like the matchup for Slovis and this offense, it's the best Utah has seen all season and this is nothing like the BYU game for either team.

The HOME TEAM in this series has won six straight and you can bet your bottom dollar the Trojans and their fans are going to be fired up for what should be a great PAC 12 Conference game. I want to go back to Utah's win at BYU to open the season in the "Holy War" Rivalry. It looks great on paper because the Utes won by 18 on the road in a rivarly game but BYU basically gave that game away. USC at home under Clay Helton are an impressive 18-3 SU and are 1-0 ATS in their only game as a home underdog and that was against Notre Dame late last season. UTAH comes into this game 0-5 ATS in their last five games played in September and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. I'm telling you they have played virtually nobody this season (yes I'm aware BYU beat USC). The Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record on the road and again the HOME TEAM is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings winning the last six straight up. Utah has BCS Championship hopes and dreams and I'm calling for those hopes and dreams to come to an end tonight. USC will have a nice bounce back game.

Trend of the Game: The HOME TEAM is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.


Southern California 34, Utah 26




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NEVADA cruises

Great stuff as always Mista

nice work

What an incredible finish in the Louisiana Tech game to cover and I think the injury to Air Force QB Donald Hammond III kind of screwed everything up. Calhoun went with Sanders to start the 2nd Half and it was working but as soon as he went back to to DH3 the game changed. Boise went heavy late and that was all she wrote. Winning two on the road as a dog was too much for ask for Air Force but they're still a very good team. USC on the other hand lose their starting QB and bring in a guy who put up good numbers last year and pull off the massive home win over Utah. Crazy night.


Week 4 Recap

Tulane -5
Louisiana Tech -7
Air Force +7.5
USC +3.5


3-1 ATS (+19.00 Units) this week with more to come!


Will have some 7-8 plays for Saturday and will be posting them shortly! Congrats to all winners tonight.




:toast:

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Saturday, September 21



Tennessee Volunteers +14 (10 Units)

This is such an absurd spread. I mean for as bad as the Tennessee Volunteers have been in the eyes of the Nation and in the eyes of all the "experts" with their 1-2 SU start to the season (all at home), there is no way they should be a two touchdown underdog when they have outyarded all three of their opponents this season. Jeremy Pruitt has taken some major heat the last couple of weeks but things got back on track last week at home against Chattanooga as the offense dropped 45 and the defense pitched a shutout and the Vols covered their first spread of 2019. Now the important part. Did I mention Tennessee was 3-1 ATS as an away underdog under Pruitt last season winning at #21 Auburn as a +14 point underdog and almost winning at South Carolina as a +8 point underdog. The Vols offense comes into this game averaging 33.7 points per game and 394 total yards of offense on 5.8 yards per play. They pound the ball effectively averaging over 175 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. Running on Florida is not easy and the Gators have allowed only 2.8 yards per carry this season on only 96 rushing yards per game but the Vols ran for 156 on the Gators at home last season and 10 starters are back. In the air is a different story. QB Jarrett Guarantano has completed 65.8% of his passes for 629 passing yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 7 Touchdown Passes, 2 Interceptions and and QB Rating of 160.4! Florida's defense has allowed opponents to complete 64.8% of their passes this season for 207 passing yards and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. They have lived off the pass rush (16 sacks in 3 games) but the Vols offensive line is one of the best and most experienced in the Nation and they have allowed only 5 sacks in three games. Tennessee averages only 4.7 penalties per game, they've been disciplined all season and they should find some room to run and let their QB make plays downfield.

The Florida Gators looked awful last week in their 29-21 road win over the Kentucky Wildcats as a -10 point road favorite but they never really stood a chance with a spread like that against a program that really doesn't like them and always plays them tough. The Gators managed to outyard the Wildcats by only 31 total yards in that game. Earlier this season (back in August), the Gators opened the college football season against the Miami Hurricanes as a -7 point favorite. They won but they didn't cover the spread and were actually outyarded by 2 total yards in that game. The last time these two teams played in Gainesville the Gators won by 6 as a -6.5 point home favorite but were outyarded by Tennessee 442-380. Florida has a brand new QB in Kyle Trask who up until his relief appearance last game had not played since the 2017 season and has appeared in only 5 total games of college football. The Gators have been great offensively this season averaging 32.7 points per game on 429 total yards of offense and 7.0 yards per play but Tennessee's defense is the best unit they've had since the 2015 season and so far they are allowing only 22.3 points per game on 306 total yards per game and 4.4 yards per play mind you the best team they have played is BYU. Florida has run the ball well this season averaging 4.6 yards per carry but the Vols are run tested and have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry with teams running on them 42.3 times per game this season. In the air Trask will no doubt be a little bit shaky to start this game and even though I don't see the Vols getting much pressure on the pocket passing QB, their DB's should feast on any mistake he makes in this game. This is one of the more underrated secondaries in the SEC East with 3 of the best 6 corners in the SEC on this unit. They have allowed opposing QB's this season to complete only 48.8% of their passes for 5.6 yards per pass attempt. They have 4 interceptions in three games and the Vols defense has forced 6 total turnovers. Ironically enough Florida has turned the ball over 6 times (3 INT's and 3 fumbles) in 2019 and I think Tennessee shocks quite a few people by making plays in this game.

Since the start of the 2009 college football season, the Tennessee Volunteers are 5-2-1 ATS ias a road underdog of 10+ points in the month of September (1-0 ATS under Jeremy Pruitt). Tennessee comes into this game having lost seven straight games in the Swamp but it took a final play of the game Hail Mary to beat them last time here in 2017. Spread wise Tennessee has been one of the most inconsistent programs of the last 3-4 seasons and I did not find any technical advantages for them in this one but I did see that Florida comes into this game 0-4 ATS in their last four SEC Conference games and only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five times hosting the Volunteers in the Swamp. The Road Team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams and I think we're in for another classic SEC finish in this game. I'm not sure the Vols can win straight up but that streak of losses in the Swamp has to end at some point.

Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these schools.


Tennessee 24, Florida 21





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Brigham Young Cougars +6.5 (10 Units)

The Washington Huskies come into this game as the #21 ranked team in the Nation but they should probably consult USC about how things went for them last week against this bunch. The Huskies are coming off a monster 52-20 home win over the Hawaii Warriors as a -21.5 point home favorite which immediately made everyone forget about their home loss to Cal the week before as a double digit favorite. In their history Washington have come to Provo four times and are only 1-3 SU with their last loss coming in 2010. In their two "real" games this season the Huskies didn't really impress me outyarding Cal by only 45 yards in a home loss and then outyarding Hawaii by only 57 yards as a -21.5 point home favorite. The Huskies offense usually doesn't have problems scoring points and they average 39.3 points per game this season on 456.7 total yards of offense per game and 6.4 yards per play. BYU's defense has grossly underachieved all season with 8 returning starters and have allowed at least 26 points in each of their games this season. They have also allowed 5.6 yards per play and have been run on 47.3 times per game this season so despite allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 225 rushing yards per game, the Cougs are run tested and will be ready for this Washington run attack. In the air QB Jacob Eason (former Georgia QB) has been great with a QB Rating of 163.8, 7 Touchdown Passes and 1 Interception on the season but look at the teams the Huskies have played and all their games have been at home. The Cougars defense has allowed chunk yardage plays this season but their secondary does have 4 interceptions and law of football averages says the Huskies will turn the ball over a few times. Washington has been unstoppable in the Red Zone this season but BYU has done a great job of holding opponents to FG attempts and have forced 8 attempts in three games now. That's huge if they are going to keep this game close. Cal allowed only 19 points to this offense a few weeks ago and their D-Line is nowhere near as good as BYU's.

Ranked PAC 12 opponents coming to Provo and taking on the scrappy BYU Cougars? No problem. Let's be honest. If you watched the Cougars season opening loss to Utah in another edition (and loss) of the "Holy War" you will know right away that the Cougars player nervous, QB Zach Wilson was a mess and couldn't stop turning over the ball and the Cougs eventually lost by 18 but they did play well enough to compete losing the total yardage battle by only 68 total yards. Last week another ranked PAC 12 opponent USC came to town and despite losing the yardage battle by 22 total yards, BYU found a way to win in overtime. Incredible. So what's another ranked PAC 12 opponent to them? BYU is on a big time high coming into this game. Their offense despite averaging only 23.7 points per game and 356.3 total yards of offense per game is averaging 5.7 yards per play which is pretty damn good considering they've played Utah, Tennessee and USC already. The Washington defense is always one of the best in the Nation and one of the most underrated but they return only 2 starters this season and don't even have the best D in the PAC 12. BYU's running game has been effective but not great and the Huskies don't give up much on the ground but even with the weak opposition in 2019 Washington has allowed 3.9 yards per carry. In the air QB Zach Wilson is finally starting to find his groove and is completing 63.2% of his passes for 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions for a QB Rating of 129.8. Since Week 1 of the season this BYU offense has not turned the ball over even one time and the offense has been tremendous in the Red Zone scoring touchdowns 92.3% of the time. Protection for Smith has been an issue and the Huskies D-Line is no joke (8 sacks on the season) but this offense should be able to make some plays and score some points.

The history between these two schools is not deep, it's not rich and it's not really recent but still interesting to know that the HOME TEAM is 7-2 SU all-time and the Cougars are playing a revenge game after getting destroyed 35-7 as a ranked team last year in Seattle. They have not forgotten and coming off that win over USC last week this program believes they can do anything. Washington is one of those teams used to playing on FieldTurf because so many stadiums have it but Lavell Edwards Stadium is grass and the Huskies are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played on natural grass. They are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games overall and have followed up 6 of theirlast 7 ATS spread wins with a 1-6 ATS record the following week. BYU are now 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning record and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall dating back to 2018. Coach Sitake finally got his big home upset win last week and the Home Team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. I like BYU to carry that momentum from last week, carry that blue print Cal used to beat Washington and win a very gritty afternoon affaire in Provo.

Trend of the Game: BYU is 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.


BYU 24, Washington 22



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Bowling Green Falcons +12 (10 Units)

Call me crazy and I'm sure that's going to happen with this pick but after seeing Louisiana Tech absolutely destroy Bowling Green on their home turf (Homecoming) last week I knew we would get a good line this week and I said if this thing comes out in double digits I'm taking it. Has Bowling Green been pretty bad this year in former Boston College Offensive Coordinator Scot Loeffler's first go at being a Head Coach? Yes of course. They were outyarded by 163 total yards in the loss to LT last week and were outyarded by 381 total yards at Kansas State two weeks ago but this team also outyarded Morgan State by a crazy 556 total yards of offense in their season opener and I think they can do some damage in this game. The offense is averaging 17.7 points per game on 352.3 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play this season. Kent State are allowing a crazy 36.0 points per game on 508.3 total yards of offense and 6.5 yards per play. The main focus of my play is the Bowling Green ground attack versus the horrendous Kent State run defense who have allowed 296.7 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. Bowling Green RB Davon Jones is a grad transfer from BC so he is familiar with Loeffler's system. On the ground this season the team is averaging 181.3 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. Jones and RB Andrew Clair should both have a big games here. Loeffler went out and got his man QB Darius Wade (former BC quarterback who beat Syracuse, Louisville and Connecticut as a starter back in 2017) and he's been good despite the team struggles. Wade has completed only 53.9% of his passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt but he's finding his groove after sitting out all of 2018 and he actually has 3 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 110.3. Kent State's defense has allowed a crazy 10.2 yards per pass attempt so far in 2019 and although they have 9 sacks in three games, the BG offensive line has allowed only 2 sacks in three games. Wade will make plays on his feet and on the ground and Bowling Green will establish a run game.

The Kent State Golden Flashes are not supposed to be in a re-building season like the Bowling Green Falcons but so far they have played like it. Pre-season magazines and experts had the Flashes flirting with a possible Bowl Game, their first since the 2012 season, but so far they've gone to Arizona State and lost 30-7 , they then hosted FCS opponent Kennesaw State and beat them 26-23 and then they went to Auburn and lost 55-16 last week as a 36 point underdog (failed cover). KENT STATE IS ONLY 4-20 SU the last six seasons when hosting a MAC Conference opponent and that includes losses to Bowling Green. It's hard to really judge this Kent State offense because they've played against Auburn and Arizona State but even their game against Kennesaw State the Flashes were still outyarded by 100 total yards and needed overtime to win the game. They are averaging only 16.3 points per game on only 4.5 yards per play this season and their offensive line has been terrible. The Flashes have managed only 119 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry and although Bowling Green's defense allows 4.1 yards per carry on 169.3 rushing yards per game this season they should get some guys in the backfield. So far this season Kent State QBs have been sacked a whopping 11 times in three games and shockingly Bowling Green have recorded 11 sacks on the season in three games. The Falcons have also recovered 3 fumbles and have 1 interception. They allow big chunk plays in the passing game but Kent State's QBs have completed only 56.6% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. I'm not sure they have the big play ability to really make Bowling Green pay and run away with this game.

These two teams have met a crazy 85 teams in their history so they know each other well at every possible level. These are two brand new Head Coaches (Loeffler 1st year and Sean Lewis 2nd year) who both have an opportunity here to go grab a rare win on the season as these two teams combined for only 5 wins in 2018 and have combined for only 2 wins this season. I think Bowling Green is better than the score we saw in a home loss to Louisiana Tech last week and Kent State's offense will continue to have issues with slow starts. When it comes to spreads there is nothing really nice to say about either one of these teams although the ROAD TEAM is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two schools and the UNDERDOG has covered 15 of the last 22. I don't typically bet on bad teams in the MAC Conference but for me with so much history and with Bowling Green coming off that bad loss this game should be close to the end. I saw Bowling Green pulls off a huge upset win for Loeffler's first conference win.

Trend of the Game: The ROAD TEAM is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these schools.


Bowling Green 30, Kent State 27




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Auburn Tigers +4.5 (10 Units)

There are so many technical angles calling for Auburn to crash and burn as a road underdog in this one because of their history under Gus Malzahn but I'm not buying it and I'm taking the points in this one day and night. The Tigers have not covered the spread as a road underdog since the 2015 season going 0-4 ATS the last three seasons but law of averages is everything and they eventually have to cover and win one of these. We saw the Tigers resilience earlier this season in their come from behind win over Oregon. They outyarded the Ducks by 51 total yards in that game and covered the spread in a very late touchdown pass. Auburn then hosted both Tulane and Kent State and outyarded a very good Green Wave team by 156 total yards and Kent State by 312 total yards. The Tigers come into this game averaging 35.3 points per game this season and they average 465 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play. The Aggies defense is a very good challenge for them as they've allowed only 11.3 points per game this season on 268.3 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. The numbers are a bit skewed because they played against Clemson but also played against two very bad programs. Auburn can smash the ball down your throat and average 281.7 rushing yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry and they should have some success seeing how A&M allowed 121 rushing yards on 3.7 yards per carry to Clemson. In the air is where Auburn will have to win this game. QB Bo Nix has struggled with accuracy this season completing 52.4% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 117.8. He has been sacked only 3 times in three games and the Tigers have turned the ball over only 4 times. The Aggies secondary is very good and they'll give up short yardage over big plays as their opponents this season have completed 58.9% of their passes for 5.2 yards per pass attempt. The D-Line has only 5 sacks in three games, despite playing two very inferior opponents and they will have to deal with an Auburn offense that scores touchdowns 81.3% of the time once in the Red Zone.

The Texas A&M Aggies under Jimbo Fisher own all the "technical angles" in this one because of a) how bad Auburn is as a road underdog under Malzahn and b) how good the Aggies have been under Jimbo Fisher at home. They went 5-1 ATS last season as a Home Favorite at Kyle Field which is impressive but their opponents were ULM, Northwestern State, Arkansas, Kentucky, UAB and Mississippi. So far this season they PUSHED in their opener against Texas State and covered the -45.5 against Lamar at home last week. I want to go back to the Clemson game where Texas A&M covered the spread late as a +16 point road underdog. They were outyarded by 100 total yards in that game and didn't really belong making it that close but a backdoor cover was in play for Jimbo and his guys. Coming into this game this offense is just as prolific as the Tigers offense and they average 37.7 points per game and 466.7 total yards on 6.5 yards per play. Impressive but again consider they've played Lamar and Texas State. Auburn's defense through three games has been as good if not better than the Aggies allowing 14.3 points per game on 292 total yards and 4.3 yards per play (Aggies allow 4.4). Texas A&M doesn't run the ball close to as much as Auburn so controlling the clock in this one might be tough and getting first down yardage might be even tougher against an Auburn defense allowing only 3.2 yards per carry on the season. Oregon managed only 90 rushing yards on 2.7 yards per carry against this defense. In the air QB Kellen Mond has been good completing 64.7% of his passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and a QB Rating of 140.5 in three games. Good luck against this Auburn secondary who have not allowed short yardage passes or deep balls and who's opponents have completed only 52.3% of their passes for 191.3 passing yards and only 5.4 yards per pass attempt. I mentioned the 3 interceptions for Mond. Well this Auburn secondary is due for a couple of turnovers as they have only 1 interception on the season. Overall Texas A&M have turned the ball over 6 times in three games and protecting Mond today against this Tigers D-Line (8 sacks in three games) could be an issue. The turnovers are one of the big reasons I'm not going Aggies and why I see this game coming down to the final drive of the game once again.

We were all treated to an incredible game between these two schools in 2018 as Auburn beat the Aggies 28-24 despite beding badly outplayed. That would set things up for the Aggies to turn things around in 2019 at home but the UNDERDOG has won 4 of the last 6 games outright and probably should have won last season too. The Home Team has not been good in this series over the years. Auburn comes into this game on a 4-0 ATS run dating back to their Music City Bowl Game win last season and even though Malzahn has a terrible track record as a road underdog, I think the resilience we saw in the Oregon game is a sign of things to come in these tough conference road games. The Road Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two schools. If you're into big time technical angles and things like that the Aggies are probably your play but I'm taking Auburn who probably won't have much support in this one but who have outyarded all their opponents this season and who have started the year 3-0 ATS. You just can't ignore that. This should be a great game. Texas A&M turnovers will do them in.

Trend of the Game: The UNDERDOG has won 4 of the last 6 meetings outright.


Auburn 21, Texas A&M 18





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Like BYU. But back 2 back OT games and winners is a killer. Still has to be BYU or nothing IMO GL and nice season

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Mississippi State Bulldogs -6 (10 Units)

The Kentucky Wildcats have to be one of the more deflated teams in the entire Nation after having the Florida Gators on the brink last week at home only to blow the game late and almost blow the cover as well on the last few plays of the game. It won't show up in the scoreboard but the 29-21 loss at home to Florida last week was a big deal. Even with their backup QB in for that game the Wildcats made a game of it and probably should have won. They were outyarded by only 31 total yards and played well but turnovers killed them. This is their first road game (Conference one at that too) of the season and as good as this team was away from home in 2018, they return only 10 total starters from that squad and lack a lot of experience. So far this season Kentucky averages 32.3 points per game and they have done that on 430.0 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play but considering they've faced two MAC Conference opponents at home are we all that impressed? The Bulldogs suffered some big off-season losses on defense and return only 4 defensive starters so for them to allow 5.7 yards per play and 24.7 points per game in their first three games is not that big of a shocker. That's what happens when you lose 3 guys to the 1st Round of the NFL Draft. Having said all of that this Bob Shoop defense has forced an incredible 10 turnovers in their first three games and turnovers is what killed Kentucky last week. QB Sawyer Smith is a Troy transfer and he threw 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions last week against Florida. Overall this season he's thrown 4 TD's and 3 picks but has made some big plays down the field. Big plays typically work against this Bulldogs defense because they've been torched in the air for 7.4 yards per pass attempt but their opponents are completing only 61.9% of their passes and like I mentioned before this unit has 3 interceptions already on the season. Kentucky takes a ton of penalties (7.7 per game), they turn the ball over and their Red Zone offense has not been good so far this season scoring touchdowns only 75% of the time. If the Bulldogs defense can get off the field and give up only Field Goals they are going to shut this Kentucky offense down and pull away in the second half. Shoop is starting to get a bit more from his guys on a weekly basis and this being the third straight home game it should be their best defensive performance of the season.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs suffered some huge losses to the NFL in the off-season and they don't have the same bad ass defense they had one year ago so it's been a slow start to the season and they are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in three games. Last year's offense was not explosive but they were effective and with 7 returning starters this season they should have no problems being effective again. What I love about this team is that despite covering only one spread in their first three games they have managed to outyard all three of their opponents which means they are playing well enough to win games big. In the loss to Kansas State at home last week the Bulldogs outyarded the Wildcats by 83 total yards, the most of any opponent all season. Overall this season this Mississippi State offense is averaging 33.3 points per game and averaging 411.7 total yards of offense and 6.1 yards per play. Kentucky's defense has allowed 23.3 points per game, they have not played on the road yet and in those games they are allowing a whopping 6.0 yards per play. With only 4 returning starters from their best defense in years in 2018, I expect Mark Stoops guys to struggle early in these road games. The Bulldogs love to pound the ball on the ground and have had tons of success doing so averaging 224 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry in those games. Kentucky is allowing 4.2 yards per carry in their three games this season. In the air, Bulldogs QB Tommy Stevens should be good to go in this game and he's been great this season completing 65.5% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 155.5. Kentucky's secondary has allowed opponents to complete 61.1% of their passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt and have relied on a relentless pass rush (7 sacks) and a defense that has forced 6 turnovers in three games. I won't say Mississippi State has taken care of the ball because they do have 5 turnovers in three games but the Bulldogs are scoring touchdowns in 91.7% of their trips to the Red Zone in 2019 and they are taking only 4.7 penalties per game (3.0 penalties less per game than Kentucky). This is the third home game in a row for Mississippi State and I expect their best effort yet in what is a pretty big revenge game for them after being blown out on the road in Kentucky as a -9 point road favorite in 2018.

You can't ignore the fact that Mississippi State went 5-1 ATS as a home favorite in 2018 and so far this season they are 1-1 ATS in that same position but get to play their third home game of the season and it's only mid-September. This is huge. Kentucky's team in 2019 is only a shell of what they were in 2018 and both these squads took big hits on the defensive side of things so we turn our attention to the offenses and I like the Bulldogs here. I spoke about it earlier and I will say it again. Kentucky comes into this game pretty deflated after their home loss to Florida last week and they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games coming off a straight up loss. Mississippi State on the other hand is 24-6 ATS in their last 30 home games versus a team with a winning or .500 road record on the season (Kentucky playing their first road game here so take it as you will) and Mississippi State is also 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a spread loss. This is a great spot for them. I assume most of the public will be on Kentucky because of how hard they played the Gators last week but the Bulldogs play their last home game at Davis Wade Stadium until October 19 against LSU and they'll hit the road off a big win. Don't forget the Home Team has covered the spread in five straight.

Trend of the Game: Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in their last six Home Games.


Mississippi State 35, Kentucky 19





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exploited17 said:

Like BYU. But back 2 back OT games and winners is a killer. Still has to be BYU or nothing IMO GL and nice season

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You're right but I'll ride that train until they burn me. I think I've been on them every single game this season. The support will be for Washington (public wise) but man they looked awful against Cal and even the Hawaii game was closer than the final number. Provo is such a tough place to play. Momentum huge in this one. Good luck!