Mistaflava's NFL Week 3 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

Mistaflava's 2019 NFL Record: 13-8-1 ATS (+118.00 Units)

Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 5-0 ATS (+125.00 Units)

The NFL Season is back and although I didn't post too much in 2018 I'll be back and posting here every week in 2019. Hopefully we can have some good discussions, banter, info sharing and all that good stuff forums are made for. I can handle the criticism and the praise one in the same so I encourage comments of any kind.

Wishing everyone a profitable and great 2019 NFL Season!

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Thursday, September 19




Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (10 Units)

The Tennessee Titans looked damn good in Week 1 of the regular season and then they looked absolutely horrendous last week against the Indianapolis Colts at home losing 19-17 as a -3 point home favorite. What most people don't know is that so far this season the Titans have been outyarded in both of their games and showed no real signs of improvement on their Week 1 win. Was it a fluke and Cleveland just looked awful? It's possible. Now they come to a place where they have won two straight games (2017 and 2018) against an opponent that they have beat four straight times. We all know how hard it is to beat a divisional opponents five times in a row. The Titans offense is still averaging 30.0 points per game despite the loss last week but average only 290.5 total yards of offense per game (that's 64 yards per game less than Jackonsville's offense) and average 5.6 yards per play. This Jacksonville defense was embarrassed in Week 1 of the season at Kansas City but what defense survives Kansas City games? None. So the numbers are a bit skewed. The Jaguars have allowed 26.5 points per game on 377 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play but they played really well at Houston last week. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has been sacked 8 times this season and the offensive line is struggling badly in protection without the suspended Taylor Lewan. What's very surprising is that the Jaguars D doesn't have a single turnover in 2019 and they are one of the most talented groups in the NFL. Tennessee has turned the ball over 0 times so far in 2019. The law of averages says the Jaguars will get 2-3 turnovers tonight. It's worth pointing out that Tennessee has converted only 15.0% of their third down chances in two games this season and while the Jaguars D has not been great on 3rd downs, they have been great in the Red Zone and allowed touchdowns only 37.5% of the time against two very high powered offenses. This is by far the weakest of the offenses the Jags have seen this season and like I mentioned before I expect this group to make some plays and come up with some sacks, some big plays and some turnovers as well as keep the big plays to a minimum. The Titans offense could get some big plays but they'll struggle again when the pressure comes. Mariota and his offensive line have not been good enough for me to believe this team can win as a road favorite in the division.

The urgency for Jacksonville to win is pretty crazy right now. With star players like Jalen Ramsey sitting uneasy with the franchise and with the coaching staff, a win in this divisional game would probably be the cure to many of their problems. Despite the 0-2 SU start to the season we can easily give the Jags a break on the loss at Kansas City to open the season. They were outyarded by only 69 yards in that game and had the offense been more effective when QB Nick Foles went out they would have had a shot. Nonetheless the Jaguars scored 26 points in that game and their D had their worst performance in ages. In their loss at Houston last week they covered the +7.5 point underdog spread and they actually managed to outyard the Texans by 18 total yards, despite the loss. Had they not gone for a two point conversion near the end of regulation to win the game this team could be 1-1. Although the Jaguars are averaging 19.0 points per game (only) in their two games this season they are also averaging 354.5 total yards of offense (64 more yards per game than the Tennessee offense) and they average 6.9 yards per play (one of the highest in the NFL). Tennessee's defense looked good the last couple of weeks and limited their opponents to only 16 points per game and only 5.3 yards per play but as the offense continues to struggle the defense will take some hits. RB Leonard Fournette has run really well but has been bottled up by a lack of running opportunities in this offense (18.5 runs to 33.0 throws per game this season) but he's on the verge of a monster game versus a defense that has allowed 134.5 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. Expect a heavy dose with rookie QB Gardner Minshew starting. Minshew was a star at Washington State, he's building quite the following off the field with his looks and weird ways and he's played well in two games this season completing 77.6% of his passes for 488 passing yards, 8.4 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 111.8 this season. As a rookie nobody had ever heard of. Protection has been a bit of an issue for Jacksonville and their O-Line will have to deal with a tough Titans pass rush (8 sacks in two games) but again the running game should feature tonight. Tennessee's defense has allowed touchdowns 100% of the time when their opponents have entered the Red Zone in two games this season and with the Jaguars offense controlling the clock and moving the chains tonight I expect that ratio to continue.

I don't know that too many people are excited for this game but I do know that there is a massive sense of urgency for this underachieving Jacksonville team (and coaching staff) to win this game tonight. Maybe it's a good thing they have a gun slinging rookie running the show because he seems to have a head on his shoulders. Do not underestimate a division rivalry. Tennessee have won 4 straight games against the Jaguars but the Home Team is still 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and the Titans have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 8 visits to Jacksonville. I really like the way the Jaguars played last week and dating back to last season they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven September games. Tennessee have covered the spread in only 16 of their last 53 games versus a team with a losing record on the season and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five versus AFC South opponents. Tennessee have been outyarded by both their opponents this season and I think we'll see that trend continue tonight. Jaguars finally win a game.

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.


Jacksonville 26, Tennesseee 18






more to come...

Nice write up. If Foles were playing this would be JAX -3. This Minishew is not much of a drop off . Both D's > than the opposing Os so will be low scoring IMO too

good luck tonight

jgm4661 said:

Nice write up. If Foles were playing this would be JAX -3. This Minishew is not much of a drop off . Both D's > than the opposing Os so will be low scoring IMO too

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Good call on "low-scoring". A bit painful to watch this one but always nice to start the week off with a W! Congrats to all Jags (and Tulane) backers tonight.

$$$$$$$$$

Nice work

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Sunday, September 22



Minnesota Vikings -8 (10 Units)

The Oakland Raiders made it onto everyone's radars after their shocking Week 1 win over the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football at home but after watching the Broncos plays two weeks in a row and lose both their games is anyone really that impressed anymore by what the Raiders did in a Home Opener against divisional rival? I'm not. In that Broncos game the Raiders were still outyarded by 6 total yards and came away with the win. Last week I went against them as they hosted Kansas City as 7 point home underdog and they lost 28-10 while being outyarded by 160 total yards. The score should have been a lot worse. Now the Raiders head to Minnesota where they have not played since 2007. Despite scoring only 17.0 points per game this season the offense seems to be clicking for Oakland as they average 6.0 yards per play on 332 total yards per game while Minnesota is allowing only 16.5 points per game this season on 340 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. The running game for Oakland has been great with rookie RB Josh Jacobs leading them to 113.5 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry but this Vikings defense allows only 108.5 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Derek Carr has been good but not good enough completing 70.3% of his passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 87.8. So far this season the Vikings defense has played against Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers and have held those two to QB Rating averages of 89.7. Derek Carr won't scare them. The Vikings have 6 sacks in two games and are allowing only 5.8 yards per pass attempt this season. This defense also has 2 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries. I call for 2-3 Raiders turnovers in this game. Oakland has actually been tremendous on 3rd downs this season converting more than 50% of the time but Minnesota's defense has been one of the best in the league on 3rd downs allowing a conversion only 30.4% of the time. Also factor in how bad the Raiders have been in the Red Zone (57.1% touchdowns) and they will have trouble keeping up in this game.

The Minnesota Vikings took a lot of flack last week after going to Green Bay and going down big early but the Vikings dominated quarters 2-4 and almost made a comeback on the road against a very good and revamped Packers defense. In their opener at home the Vikings somehow beat Atlanta 28-12 as a -3.5 point home favorite despite being outyarded by 76 total yards in that game which is a bit surprising. In the Packers game which they lost 21-16 as a +3 point road underdog, they outyarded Green Bay by 86 total yards. Weird stuff. The Vikings are putting up big numbers offensively this season as they come into this game averaging 22.0 points per game but they have done that on 345 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.4 yards per play. This is bad news for an Oakland defense that has a ton of injuries (Jonathan Abram and Vontaez Burfict to name a few) and who even when they have all their players have allowed 22.0 points per game on 415 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. That's one of the worst defenses in the NFL after two weeks. On the ground it's strange because the Raiders have allowed only 63 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry this season but they haven't seen a RB like Dalvin Cook who has been one of the best in the league. The Vikings average 185 rushing yards per game on a whopping 5.7 yards per carry this season. That kind of running game in this one should setup QB Kirk Cousins in the air. Cousins has been heavily criticized for his 52.4% completion percentage, his 7.8 yards per pass attempt and his 2 touhdowns and 2 interceptions to go along with a QB Rating of 74.3. Not too far off from Derek Carr. The difference today is what Cousins will have in front of him. The Raiders defense has allowed an incredible 352 passing yards on 9.4 yards per pass attempt and opponents have completed 68% of their passes. Cousins has a very good offensive line (2 sacks only) so the Raiders pressure packages won't work here. So far this season the Raiders have faced QB Joe Flacco and QB Patrick Mahomes and those two have an averaged QB Rating of 120.1 in those two games. The Raiders third down defense is stopping opponents only 51.9% of the time so expect Minnesota to control the clock quite a bit. I think the Vikings steamroll in this one.

The myth of West Coast teams playing on the road in 1pm ET games is long gone in the NFL but if it was to apply to one team I would have to say the Raiders. They are exactly who we thought they were even after winning their first game of the season. This dates back to last year but Oakland comes into this game 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played on the road. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and there is no chance they can contain Dalvin Cook in this one. The Vikings on the other hand have always been a nice bounce back team and after their loss SU and ATS last week I like the fact that they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a spread loss. Minnesota has also covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games played in September and are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 Home Games. Historical stats don't matter between these two teams because they don't face each other enough. I think Minnesota overwhelms the Raiders on both sides of the ball and wins big.

Trend of the Game: Oakland is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games under John Gruden.



Minnesota 34, Oakland 10






more to come...

Mr. Flava...….BOL with all your Sun. action buddy....appreciate the thought's and write ups...…….indy

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New York Jets +21 (10 Units)

I said last Monday Night that I would never bet on the Jets again this year as long as they didn't have a quarterback and as long as their defense wasn't healthy but I've kind of flipped the switch here given the size of the spread. I mean spreads like this are not normal in the NFL and decent teams should have no problems covering them. The choice is between the Jets and the Dolphins and I'm the team that looked half decent in the 4th Quarter of the Monday Night game against the Browns. The Jets were outyarded by 100+ yards in both their games this season so this might be a bit crazy but it's still a divisional game and the number is just way too big for me. There is no sense getting into crazy stats for the Jets offense because the numbers are weak and they average only 9.5 points per game on 242.5 total yards and 4.1 yards per play in those games. Very weak. I do however like how QB Luke Falk looked at the end of that Monday Night Football game and I think he's a much better option than QB Trevor Siemian. In their home game against the Steelers in Week 1 the Patriots allowed 5.1 yards per play despite allowing only 3 points to the Steelers and we all know how hard they played because it was a Sunday Night. This is not a Sunday Night. QB Ben Roethlisberger had a QB Rating of 102.5 in that game and was sacked only once. Falk came in for the second half of that game against the Browns and completed 80% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 99.7. He should have probably been rewarded with a touchdown pass but things didn't workout. I'm not sure the Jets can get RB Leveon Bell going in this one but it's worth a try seeing how he's had big games against the Pats before and the running game is averaging 3.6 yards per carry this season. This will be a rough go at it for the Jets but Falk should be able to make some plays with his crop of decent receivers and they should score more than the 3 points Pittsburgh scored here in Week 1.

The New England Patriots made headline news yesterday when they straight up Antonio Brown from their roster for his off-field antics. Brown had been great for the Patriots on and off the field in his one game here but Robert Kraft was having none of his continued off field antics and issues so they released him. Apparently the locker room is NOT happy with this and some guys are upset that he was letgo after having a positive influence on his teammates. The Pats have already experienced one of these massive spreads this season when they went to Miami last week as a -18 road favorite and won by 43 points while pitching a shutout. The Pats are averaging 38 points per game on 422 total yards of offense and 6.5 yards per play. That's a problem for this Jets defense who are still without LB CJ Mosley and who have allowed 372.5 total yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. Not good but a lot of this is the result of the massive touchdown pass they allowed to OBJ last week and their offense being ineffective. The Jets have allowed 4.3 yards per carry on the ground but New England has yet to find their rhythm in the running game and are averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and 111.5 rushing yards per game. I'm sure a point of emphasis in this 'practice' today will be to establish a run game and have RB Sonny Michel run the ball 25+ times. That should take care of long sustained drives that possibly end in FG attempts over touchdowns because the Jets have held opponents to a 39.1% third down conversion this season and the Patriots are scoring touchdowns only 42.9% of the time in the Red Zone. So far this season the Jets have held QB Josh Allen (Bills) and QB Baker Mayfield (Browns) to an average QB Rating 75.4 which is pretty damn decent and the Jets D has 5 turnovers on the season! There is no quit in this unit and if things are sluggish early for New England they stand no chance of covering this spread. I like the Jets D.

Ideally you would want QB Sam Darnold playing in this one but if he was I'm not sure the spread would be so large. I also typically don't bet on underdogs unless I think they can win straight but that's not the case here. The Jets have only been an underdog of 20+ points one time in their history on the road and that was back in 2007 here in New England as a +20.5 point road dog and they covered that spread in a 20-10 loss. That's how I see this game playing out to be honest. There are no spread stats to discuss when it comes to the Jets. They have been one of the worst ATS wagers in the NFL the last two seasons but I think this game has different vibes than the games of the past. The Jets have historically struggled in Foxboro and they've been blown out quite a few times but with Falk having no pressure and nothing to lose and the Patriots maybe not caring that much to sling the ball downfield against a pretty good defense, I say this game stays closer than people expect.

Trend of the Game: New York Jets are 1-0 ATS all-time as a road underdog of 20+ points.


New England 27, NY Jets 13




more to come...

Good luck!!

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Baltimore Ravens +5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE EARLY GAMES***

The Baltimore Ravens and not the Kansas City Chiefs are quite possibly the team to beat in the AFC this season. i know it's early and I know it's only been two games but the Ravens (and the good Harbaugh coach) come into this game with a perfect 2-0 SU record and although they failed covered the spread against the Cardinals last week, the Ravens still outyarded them by a whopping 91 total yards. That's a lot in the NFL. That was also off the heels of their opener week blowout win over Miami where they outyarded the Dolphins by a crazy 443 total yards, one of the highest totals in NFL history. Last week was an anomaly and in the history of the NFL teams that cover a spread by 28 or more points in any given week have not covered their next game out in like 30 years. The Ravens come into this game averaging 41.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 541.5 total yards of offense and a whopping 7.6 yards per play. WOW! Can the Chiefs defense handle this? No way. They have allowed only 18 points per game this season but have also allowed 367.5 total yards of offense per game on 6.9 yards per play (one of the worst in the NFL). On the ground the are running the ball 39.5 times per game and averaging 223.5 rushing yards per game on 5.7 yards per carry. This is tremendous stuff and picking up RB Mark Ingram was one of the best off-season moves in the entire league. The Chiefs, despite being up in games, have been run on at a clip of 6.0 yards per carry so far this season. MY GOODNESS. In the air QB Lamar Jackson has been the MVP after two weeks. He has a QB Rating of 145.2, he has completed 71.9% of his passes for 10.5 yards per pass attempt and has 7 touchdown passes with 0 interceptions in two games. "Not bad for a Running Back". This Kansas City defense has issues. They have allowed opposing QB's to complete 70.4% of their passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt but turnovers (4 in two games) have kept them half decent. Well the Ravens have turned the ball over 0 times in 2019, they are converting 56% of third down chances and won't hesitate to go for it on 4th down in a game like this where they have converted 66.7% of the time this season. The Chiefs D is on for a crazy afternoon, one they probably can't handle.

The Kansas City Chiefs are favorites to win the AFC Conference (after the Patriots of course) but they could have a bit of a rough go in this one. So far they're a perfect 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS and have played Jacksonville and the Oakland Raiders. They outyarded those two opponents by 63 and 160 total yards respectively but the Ravens are by far the best team they have seen this season and will possibly see until they eventually play the Patriots. The Chiefs offense is predictable and until someone stops them in the passing game they are going to continue to sling the ball downfield and let QB Patrick Mahomes hit Home Runs. It's worked for them so far but I've always said it will catch up to them when they hit tough defenses. The running game has been virtually non-existent for Kansas City this season and I said that would eventually catch up to them as well. They are averaging only 72.0 rushing yards per game on only 3.0 yards per carry. Baltimore will completely shut them down in the running game in this one as the Ravens have allowed only 20.5 rushing yards per game on 1.8 yards per carry (although I think KC exceeds those numbers today). In the air, Mahomes is off to another MVP like start having completed 71.4% of his passes for 10.7 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and a QB Rating of 136.3 (not as good as Jackson). Here is where the Ravens win this game. Baltimore is allowing opponents to complete only 55.6% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and opposing QB's have an average QB Rating of 70.8 this season. They have a relentless pass rush (6 sacks) and their secondary has 2 interceptions in two games. The Ravens have a TOP 5 third down defense in the NFL allowing opponents to convert only 23.8% of the time and their Red Zone defense is allowing only 40.0% conversion. It's also concerning that after two weeks of play the Chiefs are scoring touchdowns only 37.5% of the time in the Red Zone. The Chiefs also average 85 penalty yards per game to Baltimore's 51 per game on the season.

This game should have been on primetime but I'm glad it's not because we will probably get the best of both teams and this should be a shootout. It could also be a low scoring game but that's unlikely given the two offenses and how dynamic they've been this season. After watching both their games the first two weeks of the season I have to say I've been more impressed by the Ravens. They come into this game 4-0 ATS in their last four road games dating back to last season and they are 19-7-4 ATS in their last 30 road games versus a team with a winning record at home. It's hard to go against a Chiefs team that is so good on the spread and that has covered 9 straight games in September over two seasons but every streak comes to an end. If the Chiefs are going to lose on a spread it's usually at home where they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. The Road Team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meeting and I am going BIG PLAY on the Ravens to cover the spread, win the game and move to 3-0 on the season!

Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams.


Baltimore 23, Kansas City 20





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Denver Broncos +7.5 (10 Units)

The Denver Broncos can't play any worse than they have the last two weeks yet I think this line is way too high. The Broncos opened the season with a brutal road loss to the energetic Raiders and then followed that up with a home loss to the Bears in a game they have almost never lost over the last few season when playing in Denver in a September home game. What's super interesting to me is that in both games the Broncos ended up winning the yardage battle so they are due for better fortunes this week. They outyarded the Bears by 99 total yards which makes it shocking that they lost and they also outyarded the Raiders by 6 total yards. You will be shocked by this but their offense is averaging 5.7 yards per play on 367.5 total yards of offense per game and only 15.0 points per game. Green Bay's revamped defense is the real deal but take a closer look and you will see that they've allowed some big plays this season and opponents are averaging 5.7 yards per play despite scoring only 9.5 points per game. The Packers D-Line has allowed 5.8 yards per carry and we know how much the Broncos love to run the ball so expect a heavy running dose today to kick start a running game averaging only 3.9 yards per carry and less than 100 rushing yards per game this season. In the air is where the Packers have really improved and neither Mitch Trubisky or Kirk Cousins were able to do anything against this defense (combined 56.8 QB Rating for those two). Having said that, QB Joe Flacco has done the basics and has completed 69.1% of his passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 91.6. Pass protection has been an issue and Flacco has run for his life a couple of times this year but the running game should take care of that and I think Denver will actually surprise a few people on offense in this one.

The Green Bay Packers are a brand new football team but they are a tad bit overrated after big season opening wins over both Chicago on the road and Minnesota at home. Those were divisional opponents and the Packers always seem to give a little extra in those games. This however is a game versus an AFC opponent and I think Green Bay is going to struggle. The spread seems insane to me to have them a touchdown favorite in only Week 3 of the season. Would you have had them here at the start of the season? No way. Green Bay is averaging 15.5 points per game this season but their offense has not been effective at all and they are averaging only 274 total yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. What? Denver's defense has been soft in both games they have played allowing 5.7 yards per play (Same as the Packers D). Green Bay has yet to establish a running game this season and average only 3.5 yards per carry on 95.5 rushing yards per game. Denver has allowed opponents to run for 4.4 yards per carry in two games. In the air the Broncos, believe it or not with Bradley Chubb and Von Miller have not recorded a single sack in 2019. That will change today. The Packers offensive line has not been good and QB Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 7 times in two games. WHOA! The Broncos come into this game with 0 sacks, 0 fumble recoveries, 0 interceptions. Again that will change today. Green Bay is converting only 25.9% of the time on 3rd downs this season and they have not been effective in putting games away (see Minnesota last week). The spread is way too high and this Denver defense is due to make some kind of noise. It will happen today.

I'm not sure why anyone likes Green Bay here. Before the season there is no chance anyone was taking them by more than a touchdown at home or on the road against any decent opponent. Sure the Broncos are off to a slow start but like I mentioned they have outyarded both their opponents this season. Something has to give. Looking back at their record last season the Packers are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a spread win and they are due for a loss in 2019 after starting 2-0 ATS. Denver allowed 153 rushing yards against the Bears but they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 150+ rushing yards in a game the last few seasons. This is a good bounce back spot for Denver against a team that oddsmakers have somewhat overrated.

Trend of the Game: Denver is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 150+ rushing yards in their previous game.


Denver 27, Green Bay 19





more to come...

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Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (10 Units)

New Orleans Saints +5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE AFTERNOON***

San Francisco 49ers -6 (10 Units)

Houston Texas +3 (10 Units)




more to come...

Mr. Flava...….let's do this ...BOL today buddy ……..indy

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Cleveland Browns +4.5 (10 units)



More to come...

you are killing it bro

Disappointing end to a pretty good Sunday. Thought the Browns had it in them to win that game but horrendous coaching ended this game (and spread cover). When they went for it on 4th and 9 in a 3 point game I knew Browns backers were done with. We then got some life at the end there but again the play calling was atrocious inside the 10 and Browns backers never stood a chance. Such is life.

Still hitting all the big plays in college and NFL and looking to keep the ball rolling tonight.

Any thoughts on the game?

Just a few......Wash is 15/4 vs Chi SU and14/5 ATS......Wash off a loss vs Chi is 10/3 SU and11/2 ATS (have won and covered 6 straight and covered 7 straight)......Wash off an ATS loss vs Chi if spread is between 3 and 6.5 Over 6/0 at 50.1 pts per game...... and Chi as Conf Fav of 3 to 6.5 pts is 7/17 ATS at +1.7 pts per game

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Washington Redskins +5 (25 Units) ***PRIMETIME PLAY OF THE WEEK***

The Chicago Bears bounced back nicely from an embarrassing opening night performance by going to Denver and beating the Broncos in a spot where not too many teams have won games over the last 5-6 seasons (playing in Denver in September games). Having said that, the Bears needed a last second Field Goal to beat what is now an 0-3 SU Denver team on the season. This is the same Broncos team that has 0 Sacks, 0 Interceptions and 0 Fumble Recoveries as a defense in 2019 after three games. And the Bears managed only 16 points. This goes along with their opening night performance where they managed only 3 points in that game. I do believe the Bears will score some points tonight but that doesn't change the fact that they average only 9.5 points per game this season on only 263.5 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play. The expectation is for things to get better tonight against a Redskins defense allowing 31.5 points per game on 455 total yards of offense and 6.8 yards per play. Those are terrible numbers but consider who the Redskins have played against. Dallas with the #4 ranked offense in the NFL and Philadelphia with the #9 ranked offense in the NFL. The Bears come into this game with the #31 ranked offense in the NFL. There is no dodging around the fact that the Bears have been awful. Their running game has been decent averaging 99.5 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry and the Redskins have been gashed on the ground but the Bears are too stubborn to run 40+ times in one game (average only 22.0 run plays per game). They continue to want to try and get QB Mitch Trubisky going. He has completed 58.3% of his passes this season for 4.8 yards per pass attempt, 0 touchdown passes, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 65.0. That is dead last in all categories for starting quarterbacks this season. The Redskins secondary was torched by both Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz who had an average QB Rating of 124.3 against this defense. The problem with the Bears and winning games big and scoring points is not turnovers (they have only 1 this season) but it's their 23.1% third down conversion rate this season and their 50.0% touchdowns scored in the Red Zone rate also this season. This will be a welcome site for the Redskins after facing two teams who are fantastic in that facet. The Bears will score some points tonight but it won't be enough and Washington's defense will make some plays.

The Washington Redskins were handed a bullshit schedule by the NFL when they had to open with two straight divisional games against the top two teams in the NFC East. No wonder they struggled so badly to get things going but things are not as bad as they look. Their defense despite allowing a ton of yards this season have more life than the Broncos defense had last week and they should be able to make some plays. On offense the Redskins have actually been great and will probably give the Bears defense the most trouble they have seen in 2019. This offense was actually good the first two games and they come into this game ranked #12 in the NFL in scoring on the season. They put up 21 points against the Cowboys at home last week and they put up 27 points in Philadelphia against a stout Eagles defense. They come into this game averaging 24.0 points per game on 326.5 total yards of offense per game and an impressive 5.9 yards per play (which is TOP 5 in the NFL). The yards per play is one of the most underrated stats in football. They've done all of this without a running game to speak of as RB Derrius Guice is out for a while and RB Adrian Peterson isn't doing much more than hold the ball for no gain or a loss. It's very doubtful we see any running by the Redskins in this one against a Bears defense that is great against the run but I want to point out that Chicago allowed 3.8 yards per carry last week in Denver. In the air QB Case Keenum has been tremendous completing 69.1% of his passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and a QB Rating of 111.2. In the home game against Dallas Keenum had a QB Rating of 135.3 and he is going up against a Bears defense that allowed QB Joe Flacco to have a QB Rating of 120.0 last week. WTF! The Redskins have turned the ball over 0 times this season and Keenum has been sacked only 2 times. What's even more positive is that the Redskins are scoring touchdowns 80% of the time in the Red Zone this season and 100% of the time at home last week against Dallas. Keenum is putting points on the board tonight even if he has to throw the ball 40 times. Flacco completed 70.0% of his passes last week and was very efficient in the short passing game. Keenum is smarter than Flacco and will convert those opportunities.

I will say this. For the second night in a row on Primetime television we have a road favorite of -4.5 or -5 or in that range anyways. If you were to pick only one between the Bears and Rams to cover in a very difficult spot like this one who would it be? The Rams for sure. Also, the Redskins have looked a lot better this season than the Browns so playing well at home in their second home game of the season shouldn't be a problem. Look at the stats folks. CHICAGO IS 3-7 ATS IN THEIR LAST 10 ROAD GAMES AS A FAVORITE OF 7 OR LESS POINTS. On the flip side, the Redskins have won straight up as a home underdog of 5 points or less in 5 of their last 10 September home games when a dog of 5 or less. Impressive stuff and they do have that ability to pull it off. WASHINGTON is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and are 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings. Chicago comes into this game a pathetic 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus teams with a losing record at home on the season and they have covered the spread in only 5 of their last 17 September games. Washington is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games coming off a spread loss the game before and the UNDERDOG is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. I'm going with the Redskins to win this game straight up.

Trend of the Game: Washington is 7-0 straight up in the last seven meetings.


Washington 27, Chicago 16





GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!





:toast:

statman03 said:

Just a few......Wash is 15/4 vs Chi SU and14/5 ATS......Wash off a loss vs Chi is 10/3 SU and11/2 ATS (have won and covered 6 straight and covered 7 straight)......Wash off an ATS loss vs Chi if spread is between 3 and 6.5 Over 6/0 at 50.1 pts per game...... and Chi as Conf Fav of 3 to 6.5 pts is 7/17 ATS at +1.7 pts per game

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Good stuff man, love the numbers!