The “My Line System” (Week 3 Thru Super Bowl)

Is this yet another “system”?? LOL - I guess technically that yes, it is yet another system.

This system generates weekly “lines”. It automatically adjusts itself (theoretically getting better or smarter as the season progresses). Each week I then compare “My Lines” to the “real world lines” that we bet with, and look for the best value.

In the past, the plays with the highest winning % have been:

(1) “Favorites” with +3 (or more) value
(2) Dogs receiving +3 (or more) points when my system deems the game a “Pick ‘Em”

(F.Y.I., a third option would be FADING “Favorites” with -3 points (or more) in negative value, but the winning percentage of those have not been nearly as good as the first two options).

WARNING: It is never advisable to play values of +0.5, +1 or +1.5 (and the jury is still out on +2 and +2.5).


Week #3 Lines (My Lines)
DEN @ GB (GB -9)
DET @ PHI (PHI -5)
BAL @ KC (KC -10)
CIN @ BUF (BUF -10)
ATL @ IND (IND -6)
OAK @ MIN (MIN -10)
NYJ @ NE (NE -19)
MIA @ DAL (DAL -19)
NTG @ TB (TB-7)
CAR @ ARI (CAR -1)
NO @ SEA (PICK ‘EM)
HOU @ LAC (LAC -7)
PIT @ SF (SF -10)
LAR @ CLE (LAR -5)
CHI @ WA (CHI -3)

Under the criteria defined above, the system is suggesting 6 plays for week #3: KC, BUF, IND, NO, LAC and SF.

I will judge this system based on the closing number at PINNY. Teams will need to cover the final closing line at PINNY to receive a win.

WARNING: This system does NOT realize that Drew Brees is not playing for NO!! I need to point that out to you. (LOL - This game is a tough one for me. My “Road Wreck System” says to FADE the Saints and THEGAME9000’s system says to PLAY the saints!)

Week #3 Plays: KC, BUF, IND, NO, LAC & SF

NOTE: The values of the suggested plays above should stay relatively close until kickoff. But please understand that suggested system plays can potentially be eliminated (and brand new ones can be added) if the numbers move far enough one way or the other. With enough line movement, a +1.5 or +2 could suddenly cross the important threshold of +3 and become a play ... just as a +4 or +3.5 could potentially be pushed the opposite direction and suddenly no longer be a play.

This will be important to note in future weeks if/when I post this information earlier in the week and the numbers have more days to endure line movement (as opposed to late on Saturday night when the numbers should stay kinda close).

I will judge and score everything based on the closing lines at PINNY.

sds/23...........BOL with your action buddy........indy

indiana said:

sds/23...........BOL with your action buddy........indy

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Thanks Indy! And BOL to you my friend!

Thanks for your input.

stevfire said:

Thanks for your input.

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You’re welcome. Just something I’ve been tinkering with for quite awhile and it finally started gaining some traction. BOL this weekend!

sds23 said:

Week #3 Plays: KC, BUF, IND, NO, LAC & SF

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Early Games 3-0: KC (W), BUF (W), & IND (W)

Pending: NO, LAC & SF

Good luck

buff was fav by -5.5
lost on the point spread

mr bruce said:

buff was fav by -5.5
lost on the point spread

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That’s embarrassing. Not sure what the hell I was looking at when I updated the early games. It’ll get corrected in the final update after the late games finish. Thanks for catching that Mr. Bruce!

Not the day I had hoped for!

KC (W), BUF (L), IND (W), NO (W), LAC (L) & SF (L)

Week #3 Record: 3-3