First Period Totals

X-Files · Oct 4, 2019

For Friday's action tomorrow (Pinnacle lines):

Chicago/Flyers over 2 +123, under 2 -140

I am tempted to take the under, but these are the Blackhawks who had an amazing percentage of 1P overs (1.5) last year. On the drop down menu @ Pinnacle the over 1.5 is priced at -159 & the under 1.5 at +137. Also on offer there are other 1P totals ranging from o/u 0.5 to o/u 3.5 goals.

BTW that game starts early, 11 AM PST, 2 PM EST.

Toronto/CBJ over 2 +121, under 2 -139

That one is even more tempting than the game above.

NYI/Caps over 1.5 -115, under 1.5 +101

The other two games for Friday, Jets at NJ & Sin City @ the Sharks, have no lines yet:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/hockey/nhl-ot-included/matchups

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nhl-hockey/totals/1st-quarter/?date=20191004

On Thursday 1P unders (1.5 goals) continued their scorching hot run by going 5-3. In the previous 7 days to that, including the preseason, they were 2-2, 1-2, 7-2, 3-2, 5-2, 4-5 & 4-1-1 (26-16 u/o). Including Thursday the record is 31-19 u/o. After two days of the regular season it is 7-5 u/o. Those unders have generally been priced as underdogs.

Will the overs cash on Friday? Where is the value, if any?

X-Files · Oct 4, 2019

Flyers-Blackhawks game will be played in Prague, Czech Republic.

X-Files · Oct 4, 2019

"1st Period totals algorithm (testing) is 2-3 (-1.4u) and new this year. I've no idea how it'll work out and I am tweaking it daily so I don't advise wagering at this time. Just watching. Here's tonight's values...

CHI/PHI UN2 (-138)
WAS/NYI UN1.5 (+100)"

X-Files · Oct 4, 2019

NHL First Period, Team by Team, over/under stats from last season:

X-Files · Oct 4, 2019

Flyers 4, Chicago 3...no surprise there that the over 6.5 cashed as well as the over 1.5 for the first period.

As the previous post's image said these teams were both 1P over teams last year.

X-Files · Oct 5, 2019

[FONT=&quot]On Friday the 1P unders (1.5 goals) went 2-3 to put a bit of a dent into their scorching hot run. In the previous 8 days they were 5-3, 2-2, 1-2, 7-2, 3-2, 5-2, 4-5 & 4-1-1 for a very profitable 31-19 u/o record. Those unders have generally been priced as underdogs.[/FONT]

X-Files · Oct 5, 2019

[FONT=&quot]How To Use NHL First Period Stats To Win More Bets[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Read more: [/FONT]https://www.nhltips.ca/nhl-first-period-stats-hockey-betting-tips/#ixzz61Pbel1pb

X-Files · Oct 5, 2019

There are only 2 games on the board today where the 1P under 1.5 is a favorite, Boston/Arizona & St Louis/Dallas:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nhl-hockey/totals/1st-quarter/

Last year Dallas had only 32.9% of their games go over.

X-Files · Oct 6, 2019

[FONT=&quot]On Saturday the 1P unders (1.5 goals) went 7-8 for a positive return since most of those 7 were at plus money, including a +148 with Flor/TB under 1.5. In the past 10 days under 1.5's have been very profitable with a record of 40-31. Those unders have generally been priced as underdogs.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]In the last 10 days under 1.5 were 7-8, 2-3, 5-3, 2-2, 1-2, 7-2, 3-2, 5-2, 4-5 & 4-2.[/FONT]

X-Files · Oct 6, 2019

Today Detroit plays Dallas & the 1P under 1.5 is at -102 (PInnacle). Last year these 2 teams were both under teams, Detroit 38-44 o/u & Dallas 27-55 o/u.

Yesterday the 2 games involving Dallas & Detroit went over 1.5. Will they go under today? Is there value in the under?

So far in this years' regular season Dallas is 2-0 to the over & Detroit is 1-0 o/u.

VegasVic · Oct 6, 2019

I don’t see the Dallas/Detroit game being a defensive contest. Stars are playing with their line combinations.

X-Files · Oct 6, 2019

Thanks for your input Vic.

Can you elaborate on the meaning of your comment:

"Stars are playing with their line combinations."

I'm presently seeing a game total line of under 5.5 -116 (Pinnacle), while the other 2 games today are set at 6:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nhl-hockey/totals/

X-Files · Oct 6, 2019

"1st Period totals algorithm (testing) is 4-4 (-0.3u) and new this year. I've no idea how it'll work out and I am tweaking it daily so I don't advise wagering at this time. Just watching. Here's today's values...

DET/DAL UN1.5 (-102)"

VegasVic · Oct 6, 2019

X-Files said:
Thanks for your input Vic.

Can you elaborate on the meaning of your comment:

"Stars are playing with their line combinations."

I'm presently seeing a game total line of under 5.5 -116 (Pinnacle), while the other 2 games today are set at 6:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nhl-hockey/totals/

Maybe nothing but reading between the lines I think Montgomery is stressing to kick start the offense after only 3 goals in the first couple games. Although in their defense another one was called back on a questionable off sides last night. Last year's big line of Seguin, Benn, and Radulov was broken up in order to try to spread the scoring out. Montgomery has been swapping Faksa and Guriano with Benn and Seguin. Pavelski is still getting used to his new line mates but with his type of game I’m certain he’ll get his share of loose pucks to knock home. Especially with a shoot first player like Radulov beside him.

I just get the feeling we may some goals by Dallas tonight. No sure there’s any value in the first period under.

VegasVic · Oct 6, 2019

https://www.nhl.com/stars/news/dall...-preview-projected-lines-injuries/c-309822588

I found the Montgomery video interesting as well.

X-Files · Oct 6, 2019

Excellent info, VV. Thank you!

X-Files · Oct 7, 2019

X-Files said:
On Saturday the 1P unders (1.5 goals) went 7-8 for a positive return since most of those 7 were at plus money, including a +148 with Flor/TB under 1.5. In the past 10 days under 1.5's have been very profitable with a record of 40-31. Those unders have generally been priced as underdogs.

In the last 10 days under 1.5 were 7-8, 2-3, 5-3, 2-2, 1-2, 7-2, 3-2, 5-2, 4-5 & 4-2.

The overs went 2-1 yesterday. That included TB/Canes who were both over teams last year. TB, especially, was an over team at 74.4%!

X-Files · Oct 7, 2019

Today SBR is showing 2 games.

St.Louis @ Toronto. They were 52.4% & 50% to the over 1.5 last year. So far this year they are 2-1 & 1-2 o/u. The line is -124/+111 o/u 1.5.

Buffalo @ CBJ. They were 47.6% & 64.6% to the over last year. This year they are 1-1 & 0-2. The line is at -123/+109 o/u 1/5.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nhl-hockey/totals/1st-quarter/?date=20191007

X-Files · Oct 7, 2019

X-Files said:
Today SBR is showing 2 games.

St.Louis @ Toronto. They were 52.4% & 50% to the over 1.5 last year. So far this year they are 2-1 & 1-2 o/u. The line is -124/+111 o/u 1.5.

Buffalo @ CBJ. They were 47.6% & 64.6% to the over last year. This year they are 1-1 & 0-2. The line is at -123/+109 o/u 1/5.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nhl-hockey/totals/1st-quarter/?date=20191007

Correction: St.L is 2-0 to the overs this season.

X-Files · Oct 7, 2019

"NHL 1st Period totals algorithm is 4-5 and -1.4 units. It is still in a testing phase so I do not advise any action on these yet. Value is showing on...

STL/TOR OV1.5 (-124)
BUF/CBJ UN1.5 (+110)"

First Period Totals

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