Hockey Night

VegasVic · Oct 6, 2019

YTD
5-1 +4.90

Dallas 3-way -110 Stations

Stars open the season by playing the two Stanley Cup finalists from last year. After tonight's game, (their 3rd in 4), they face the 2017-18 Stanley Cup Champ twice in the next three, (at Washington, home against Calgary and Washington). If you ever had a must win situation the third game into the season it would be here.

I’m guessing Khudobin versus Greiss.

VegasVic · Oct 6, 2019

edit:
Khudobin versus Bernier

VegasVic · Oct 7, 2019

YTD
5-2 +380

Buffalo +110 Westgate

VegasVic · Oct 12, 2019

YTD
5-5 +80

Edmonton +115

Rangers play for the first time in a week. Lundqvist in nine days. After today’s MSG matinee the Rangers get another 5 days off. So do they come out fired up with too much energy or disjointed like it’s the first game of the season? Either way, thanks to this scheduling snafu, it’s something that takes these players out of their routine and that’s never a good thing.

"The week off didn’t really help the Rangers in any tangible way. They didn’t have any nagging injuries that could have benefited from the extra time off. They just worked on shoring up areas that might not have been particularly good in the first two games.” The Athletic

In my mind having a week off this early can only be a negative.

The Rangers won their first two games despite compiling the league’s worst expected goals/for percentage, (39.61). Granted it is a two game sample but still.

Edmonton has been on a nice run to start the season scoring 18 times in four games while winning them all. Their PP is 6/13 last three and PK 1/13 in all four.

The Oilers have a light October schedule with seven of their first nine games coming against teams that, like them, failed to qualify for the postseason in 2018-19. The Oilers had to take advantage and get off to a good start. With James Neal's presence in front of the net, while lining with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, suddenly the Oilers have two solid scoring lines. Zero pressure on this team to produce and they get to wrap up a 3-0 New York metro road trip.

sherwood · Oct 12, 2019

Good luck VV

X-Files · Oct 12, 2019

BOL VV. You beat the closing line.

VegasVic · Oct 13, 2019

YTD
6-5 +195

Vegas Over 6.5 -110

While neither goalie is official it looks like it could be Quick versus Oscar Dansk. If it turns out to be that pairing you can expect this total and/or juice to elevate.

Knights and Kings rank 3rd and 4th in the NHL for expected goal/for percentage. While I’m not certain the Kings will continue to score at will as they have so far they sure will give them up in bunches all year.

X-Files · Oct 14, 2019

5-2 final. Quick not quick enough.

cheersgif

VegasVic · Oct 14, 2019

Happy Thanksgiving to our friends in the north.

TYD
7-5 +295

Minnesota Under 6 -105

Most of us knew the Wild would have a tough time scoring this year. I don’t think anyone could guess Minnesota would be allowing over 5 goals a game, (albeit after 4 games).

The Wild have a critical contest today. Possibly one that will shape the rest of their season. Losers of their first four they face Ottawa with Toronto on deck tomorrow. Lose today and you probably start the season with 0 points in six games.

“We work on defensive-zone coverage every day,” coach Bruce Boudreau said, Look, we’ve given up 21 goals in four games for a team that takes a lot of pride since I’ve been here on being one of the better defensive teams, for the most part. Defending’s got to be our forte if we’re going to win”.

“This team since I’ve been here, we’ve always been solid (with) defensive-zone coverage. I think we need to fix that, obviously. I think we need to win games right now 1-0, 2-0. That’s got to be our mindset, our mentality going into the game. The goals will come if we bear down defensively and play the way we’re supposed to play in our D zone. Everything else usually takes care of itself.”
Ryan Suter

Instead of laying the -140 price on Minnesota today I’ll just take the under 6 at the reduced vig. If the Wild are to win I’m imagining a final score along what Ryan Suter and Bruce Boudreau illustrate.

VegasVic · Oct 14, 2019

Bruins Under 5.5 -140

A lot juicy but with Gibson and Halek in net I have a hard time seeing 6 goals in this one.

Note:
Goals are a plenty in the NHL right now. As of today the league averages 3.23 GF and 3.03 GA. The highest averages since 1993-94 (3.24 GF), and 1995-96 (3.04 GA).

I’m in the belief we see some leveling off on these goals produced numbers. No better day to start than today.

VegasVic · Oct 14, 2019

VegasVic said:
Note:
Goals are a plenty in the NHL right now. As of today the league averages 3.23 GF and 3.03 GA. The highest averages since 1993-94 (3.24 GF), and 1995-96 (3.04 GA).

Sorry the GA number is wrong, (of course). Should be the same as GF. In 77 games this year there has been 497 goals for a 6.45 per game average.

VegasVic · Oct 14, 2019

YTD
8-6 +255

10/15
Parlay
Tampa Bay -140
Carolina -155
+182

X-Files · Oct 15, 2019

VegasVic said:
“This team since I’ve been here, we’ve always been solid (with) defensive-zone coverage. I think we need to fix that, obviously. I think we need to win games right now 1-0, 2-0. That’s got to be our mindset, our mentality going into the game. The goals will come if we bear down defensively and play the way we’re supposed to play in our D zone. Everything else usually takes care of itself.”
Ryan Suter

Instead of laying the -140 price on Minnesota today I’ll just take the under 6 at the reduced vig. If the Wild are to win I’m imagining a final score along what Ryan Suter and Bruce Boudreau illustrate.

Nailed it! 2-0 final.

X-Files · Oct 15, 2019

VegasVic said:
I’m in the belief we see some leveling off on these goals produced numbers. No better day to start than today.

4 of the 7 games on Monday went "under" the total. Very nearly 5 of 7.

VegasVic · Oct 15, 2019

X-Files said:
Nailed it! 2-0 final.

It’ll be interesting to see if Minnesota can slow down the Maple Leafs tonight. Two totally different styles of play. Minnesota saved Dubnyk for tonight, although I’m not certain that’s a good thing considering he’s lost all four starts by more than one goal. The obvious play is Toronto on the puck line but under 6 at a plus number is tempting also. Wild still don’t have Zuccarello. They're not only a one line team but that one line is aged. Where’s their offense going to come from? I think the Leafs could win this by multiple goals and still keep the total under 6.

From Michael Russo’s column this morning:
Two days after Suter said the Wild “need to win games right now 1-nothing, 2-nothing,” the Wild did just that.

It was an ugly, choppy, sloppy, coma-inducing game, but as Zach Parise — who said the game was as hard to play as it was to watch — said, “At this stage, we don’t care. To get into that win column for us was the ultimate goal today. No matter how it happened, one way or another, we had to get there and we did.”

The Wild surrendered 26 shots and very few scoring chances, and granted, it came against the Senators. But if the Wild want to win, especially when they play more talented teams that have star-studded players like Tuesday’s John Tavares, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner-led Maple Leafs, this has to be the blueprint when you’re a team that struggles to score like the Wild. As Boudreau said, “I don’t want to put anybody down or anything, but we’re not going to score five goals every night. We’ve got to hold teams to one or two.”

VegasVic · Oct 15, 2019

X-Files said:
4 of the 7 games on Monday went "under" the total. Very nearly 5 of 7.

No team can play playoff hockey for 82 games. But as these totals routinely are posted at 6 and 6.5 I think there’s some cherry picking afforded with teams like Minnesota.

VegasVic · Oct 15, 2019

10/16

Colorado even

X-Files · Oct 15, 2019

VegasVic said:
No team can play playoff hockey for 82 games. But as these totals routinely are posted at 6 and 6.5 I think there’s some cherry picking afforded with teams like Minnesota.

At 6.5 another "under" tonight for the Wild :103631605

VegasVic · Oct 16, 2019

X-Files said:
At 6.5 another "under" tonight for the Wild

I failed to add, I didn’t think last night’s game was one of those cherry picks. Between Toronto and Minnesota’s polarized systems of offense I wasn’t sure what to expect except Leafs winning by more than one. I did take Toronto on the puck line last night and I guess a logical correlated play would be to take the over.

Wild now play home and home with Montreal. I’d have no problem taking both under 6 -120, (or so). I think the key would be how often Montreal plays on the special teams. Almost half of all their goals this year have been on the PP/PK. Carey Price hasn’t been exactly stellar so far but nothing like the Minnesota Wild to lower your GA average. Dubnyk on the other hand has looked down right bad. I’d be more confident with Stalock in net. Either way the sum of the parts and the defensive scheme Minnesota employs should be sufficient enough for a 3-2 type of game.

VegasVic · Oct 16, 2019

Regarding the Colorado/Pittsburgh game.

I keep seeing the stats regarding Pittsburgh’s record without Malkin in the lineup. Since Mike Sullivan became coach, (12/14/15), Pens are 40-19-8 without Malkin playing. In the past they lock it down defensively and adjust.

Tonight however they are not just without Malkin. Their entire second line is down, (Malkin, Galchenyuk, and Rust). Their third line center is out, Nick Bjugstad. Consider that all but four games of that impressive Pittsburgh record with Malkin was when they had Phil Kessel playing with them. When you look at the Pittsburgh lines all you see is huge holes in that lineup. Colorado’s lines on the other hand are stacked. Fully healthy and rolling.

The line of even for Colorado makes zero sense to me. I got +105 at Westgate last night. I’d confidently take the Avs all the way to -125.

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