Halftime plays got me last week. Now that we're at, or slightly beyond mid-season, the dogs start looking more appealing. It's a long season for college kids, and other than the truly elite few, a lot of games are situational. Here are four I like for Thursday and Friday. YTD: 33-41, -9.35 units
1* ULL/ App. State- under 70 ULL has one of their better defensive teams in recent years, and that's saying a lot. Their D has been awful the last few seasons. They also run about 61% of the time, and although App. State has given up a lot of points, they are well coached defensively and have the players to keep ULL in check. The other thing about App. State is that their offense has not been as prolific in yards for the scoring they've been putting out. Turnovers, penalties by their opponents, special teams scores have helped, but those can't be counted on in future games. Big game in the Sun Belt…defenses come to play.
2* Miami, FL -2.5 A hold your nose home team that just lost to VT. Yes, Miami has been mostly awful, but they may have solved their QB problem with N'kosi Perry playing so well last week, and the defense is still very good. I can't believe this team, that played so well vs. Florida, lost to VT and squeaked out a win vs. CMU. Like Virginia this year, but Bryce Perkins is trying to do too much, and is turning the ball over. Virginia wins close ones over ODU and a beleaguered FSU team at home, but not that impressively. I think Miami is playing for their season here.
2* Colorado +21 The Buffs should get back some of their injured players this week, and I like what Mel Tucker has done with this team. They are in every game, winning some, losing some. They are getting a very good season out of QB Steve Montez, and the defense makes enough stops to keep them in the game. The Ducks are a head-scratcher of a team. This spread and last week's line vs. Cal say that they are the cream of the PAC 12. And the defense has really played well. But there are issues on the offense even with Justin Herbert leading the way. Their running game hasn't been very good. Their WRs, while not dropping the ball as much as last year, don't really get the separation or the big plays needed to break out. Turnovers and playing calling by OC Marcus Arroyo have also been an issue. If Colorado gets both Nixon and Shenault back this week, they will give Montez 3 great weapons at WR.
1* New Mexico +4 (-120) New Mexico should be pretty competitive here at home vs. a team that plays poor defense and runs poorly. New Mexico has got the potential to really put up some points here, and like Miami, this is a game that gives them a chance at a bowl game. A loss, forget it. New Mexico usually has a couple of games a year where their running game goes crazy. This could be it.
1* ULL/ App. State- under 70 ULL has one of their better defensive teams in recent years, and that's saying a lot. Their D has been awful the last few seasons. They also run about 61% of the time, and although App. State has given up a lot of points, they are well coached defensively and have the players to keep ULL in check. The other thing about App. State is that their offense has not been as prolific in yards for the scoring they've been putting out. Turnovers, penalties by their opponents, special teams scores have helped, but those can't be counted on in future games. Big game in the Sun Belt…defenses come to play.
2* Miami, FL -2.5 A hold your nose home team that just lost to VT. Yes, Miami has been mostly awful, but they may have solved their QB problem with N'kosi Perry playing so well last week, and the defense is still very good. I can't believe this team, that played so well vs. Florida, lost to VT and squeaked out a win vs. CMU. Like Virginia this year, but Bryce Perkins is trying to do too much, and is turning the ball over. Virginia wins close ones over ODU and a beleaguered FSU team at home, but not that impressively. I think Miami is playing for their season here.
2* Colorado +21 The Buffs should get back some of their injured players this week, and I like what Mel Tucker has done with this team. They are in every game, winning some, losing some. They are getting a very good season out of QB Steve Montez, and the defense makes enough stops to keep them in the game. The Ducks are a head-scratcher of a team. This spread and last week's line vs. Cal say that they are the cream of the PAC 12. And the defense has really played well. But there are issues on the offense even with Justin Herbert leading the way. Their running game hasn't been very good. Their WRs, while not dropping the ball as much as last year, don't really get the separation or the big plays needed to break out. Turnovers and playing calling by OC Marcus Arroyo have also been an issue. If Colorado gets both Nixon and Shenault back this week, they will give Montez 3 great weapons at WR.
1* New Mexico +4 (-120) New Mexico should be pretty competitive here at home vs. a team that plays poor defense and runs poorly. New Mexico has got the potential to really put up some points here, and like Miami, this is a game that gives them a chance at a bowl game. A loss, forget it. New Mexico usually has a couple of games a year where their running game goes crazy. This could be it.