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  1. #1 Week 7: Dogs 
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    Halftime plays got me last week. Now that we're at, or slightly beyond mid-season, the dogs start looking more appealing. It's a long season for college kids, and other than the truly elite few, a lot of games are situational. Here are four I like for Thursday and Friday. YTD: 33-41, -9.35 units

    1* ULL/ App. State- under 70 ULL has one of their better defensive teams in recent years, and that's saying a lot. Their D has been awful the last few seasons. They also run about 61% of the time, and although App. State has given up a lot of points, they are well coached defensively and have the players to keep ULL in check. The other thing about App. State is that their offense has not been as prolific in yards for the scoring they've been putting out. Turnovers, penalties by their opponents, special teams scores have helped, but those can't be counted on in future games. Big game in the Sun Belt…defenses come to play.


    2* Miami, FL -2.5
    A hold your nose home team that just lost to VT. Yes, Miami has been mostly awful, but they may have solved their QB problem with N'kosi Perry playing so well last week, and the defense is still very good. I can't believe this team, that played so well vs. Florida, lost to VT and squeaked out a win vs. CMU. Like Virginia this year, but Bryce Perkins is trying to do too much, and is turning the ball over. Virginia wins close ones over ODU and a beleaguered FSU team at home, but not that impressively. I think Miami is playing for their season here.


    2* Colorado +21
    The Buffs should get back some of their injured players this week, and I like what Mel Tucker has done with this team. They are in every game, winning some, losing some. They are getting a very good season out of QB Steve Montez, and the defense makes enough stops to keep them in the game. The Ducks are a head-scratcher of a team. This spread and last week's line vs. Cal say that they are the cream of the PAC 12. And the defense has really played well. But there are issues on the offense even with Justin Herbert leading the way. Their running game hasn't been very good. Their WRs, while not dropping the ball as much as last year, don't really get the separation or the big plays needed to break out. Turnovers and playing calling by OC Marcus Arroyo have also been an issue. If Colorado gets both Nixon and Shenault back this week, they will give Montez 3 great weapons at WR.

    1* New Mexico +4 (-120) New Mexico should be pretty competitive here at home vs. a team that plays poor defense and runs poorly. New Mexico has got the potential to really put up some points here, and like Miami, this is a game that gives them a chance at a bowl game. A loss, forget it. New Mexico usually has a couple of games a year where their running game goes crazy. This could be it.
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  2. #2  
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    I jumped on Buffs +21. This team has weapons and should score enough points to keep this well within the number.
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    You not gonna jump on the Florida band wagon at 13 point?
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  4. #4  
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    Quote Originally Posted by LSUpete View Post
    You not gonna jump on the Florida band wagon at 13 point?
    13 points seems to be an invitation to take the Gators- by the books. What's your take?
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    Upping to 1.5* ULL/ App. State- under 70 Very impressed with ULL run defense vs. GaSo and Ohio, two strong running teams. ULL has the DL and LBs to make the App. State offense work slowly and deliberately to score. That, and ULL's dedication to the running game on offense, keeps this score under 70.
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    Quote Originally Posted by o fred View Post
    Upping to 1.5* ULL/ App. State- under 70 Very impressed with ULL run defense vs. GaSo and Ohio, two strong running teams. ULL has the DL and LBs to make the App. State offense work slowly and deliberately to score. That, and ULL's dedication to the running game on offense, keeps this score under 70.
    Also increasingto 3* on Colorado +21. I saw the entire Duck game last week vs. Cal. It was very physical, somewhat exhausting, and that was for the whole 60 minutes. I think in a short week, they could have a fatigue factor. Also, as much as I like the Oregon D, they haven't faced an offense this good yet, and with a passing attack that can get big chunks. If Herbert has a perfect game, maybe OU covers, but 21 seems very generous.
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  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by o fred View Post
    13 points seems to be an invitation to take the Gators- by the books. What's your take?
    I got Florida at 14.5 on Sunday night for a large play. Just waiting until Saturday when everyone unloads on UF, so I can play LSU (hopefully at 9) for a large play.

    My sense is that LSU wins big. 35-10
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  8. #8  
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    o fred,

    Well done on last night's pick. Very well played, sir.

    HW
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    Good luck this week
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  10. #10  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heatwave View Post
    o fred,

    Well done on last night's pick. Very well played, sir.

    HW
    Wish they were all that easy.
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    6* Texas +10.5 Texas has played well in recent years in the Red River Showdown in Dallas…even when their team was worse off than this one, and coached by Charlie Strong and Mack Brown, and their mediocre coaching staffs. I think Herman is a big improvement from those days, and he keeps his assistants well compensated and on 1 year contracts- to keep them motivated. Texas will easily be the best offensive test for this Sooner defense. In my eye test, they look improved, but it is hard to tell when facing an array of weak QBs (especially in passing quality). And their offense has also faced some crummy defenses, ones that have kept Jalen Hurts looking like a favorite to win the Heisman. If Herman and Company can scheme to keep Hurts from taking off for large chunks of yardage, and force him to pass more often, they have a decent chance to win this game- not just cover. Hurts has passed well, but once again, the pass defenses of UCLA, Houston, Kansas, South Dakota, etc. aren't exactly top of the line. They suck. Oklahoma lost 4 starters on the OL to the NFL, and though Hurts' mobility makes up for some of that, Texas has enough up front to test Hurts' ability to have enough time.

    I also think Texas is more battle-tested, playing a tougher schedule so far. Ehlinger has all the qualities you love in a QB, except his passing is inconsistent (like Hurts). His receivers have made some outstanding plays compensating for some passes that are off, and those receivers will likely be instrumental in this game and whether Texas gets the upset. Texas is also playing the most physical football they have played in a while. They used to get pushed around, but now there is notable difference in the trenches. I really like how they went on the road last week and took care of business in a poor situational spot. I just can't see an Oklahoma blowout here. Got a little on the ML too.
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    5* Air Force -3 Like what Jeff Tedford has done at Fresno these past 3 years. But I think this year's version will suffer from graduation losses and mediocre recruiting(not Tedford's fault- have you ever been to Fresno? Not where you'd want to be if you're a 3-5* talent). I also can't overlook the loss of QB Marcus Mcmaryion, who accounted for about 4,000 yards of offense last season. He had a little of Mariota in him, when Mariota played for Oregon. Made big plays, clutch plays, was consistent. Jorge Reyna is fine, but don't judge him completely on being a tough, scrappy guy. He is, but the talent is just okay. Fresno should also not be judged on their USC game. They have won fairly tight games vs. Sacramento St. (a weak Big Sky team) and NMSU (a very weak FBS team). I think the mile high plus elevation in Colorado Springs will gas them, especially defending this Air Force offense. Fresno had a bye, but they really haven't played a team like Air force in the past 2 years, and you can't model too well in practice what it's like with the scout team. Fresno also is very young on both sides of the ball, with little depth. Have seen Air Force play twice, and am impressed. Their late loss at Navy was upsetting, but I think it'll motivate them here to play better- a conference game, where they already have a loss to Boise. The Fresno defense will suffer 2nd half at 6,000 feet and Air Force pulls away.
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    Fred coming out firing! Tossing around *’s like nobody’s business. Best of luck
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  14. #14  
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    Not to bogart this thread, but do you think that the line will drop that significantly? Local book?

    Quote Originally Posted by LSUpete View Post
    I got Florida at 14.5 on Sunday night for a large play. Just waiting until Saturday when everyone unloads on UF, so I can play LSU (hopefully at 9) for a large play.

    My sense is that LSU wins big. 35-10
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heatwave View Post
    Not to bogart this thread, but do you think that the line will drop that significantly? Local book?
    I think Pete might have more on this on another thread. I don't bet middles, but I do agree that LSU very well could win big. Books begging for Florida money.
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    4* Michigan State +11 (-120) I'm going to give the Spartans a pass on last week's game vs. Ohio St. The Buckeyes were at home and are on fire. Wisconsin's straight ahead running game is more suited to the MSU defense than the speed/ quickness of OSU's Fields and Dobbins. This play also says that Wisconsin is still a question mark. Yes, a great 1H vs. Michigan, and yet without a pick 6 vs. a weak Northwestern team, maybe a loss. The rest of their schedule has been cream puffs. MSU can limit Taylor somewhat, and make Jack Coan have to pass to beat them. Coan is steady, but will he have much success vs. MSU's secondary? I doubt it. Michigan St. is not broken offensively, but they are inconsistent. Lewerke looks like a NFL prospect sometimes, and a mediocre QB other times. Still… he has 9 TDs to 2 interceptions, and with an improved running game this year, they can score on this Badger D. Wisconsin is ranked #8, but how many times have we seen teams below the top 5 start to slip about this time of the season through the end of the season? MSU should have beaten ASU, Wisconsin could have lost to NW. 11 is too many vs. a great defense. Possible outright upset here.
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    Fred...…..BOL with all your action this weekend buddy......on Tex. and A.F. with you...….indy
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  18. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by indiana View Post
    Fred...…..BOL with all your action this weekend buddy......on Tex. and A.F. with you...….indy
    Hope they win for you and me.
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    2* UNT/ Southern Miss- over 58.5 This game features the best 2 QBs in Conference USA. Jack Abraham led the nation in completion pct. last year, and is doing almost equally well this year. He has a better OL so there has been more down the field passes this year. Another factor I like here is that both Abraham and Mason Fine are excellent at extending the play. Neither are really runners, but both can run when needed in crucial times- like 3rd downs. Also, they have nice mobility in the pocket, and extend plays in that way. UNT also has one of the worst run defenses in the nation(almost 5 ypc), and Southern Miss will have the option to move the ball on the ground. Southern Miss had one of the better defenses last season in the conference, but they lost all of their LBs, some who were key contributors, and the pass defense has suffered, ranking 121st in passing defensive efficiency. UNT has also been gouged on special teams for lots of yardage and some scores. I think we'll see a nice gunslinging matchup here between 2 veteran QBs, both with solid decision-making abilities, and a nice array of skill players. Good weather, fast turf in Hattiesburg.
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    2* Utah -14 (-120) Lost betting against the Beavs last week. God-awful UCLA looked like they didn't have their heart or head in the game. I like the situational part of this game- OSU coming off their 1st conference win in 2 years, and Utah off a bye. Utah skunked Wazzu, but lost to USC. USC is up and down every year, but when they are up, they can beat almost anyone(when down, can lose to almost anyone). USC played out of their mind great that game, but they are built completely different than this Beaver team. Zack Moss didn't play, but he'll be there this week. Also, Utah can't afford to lose another conference game. They also present a pretty good Beaver offense with easily their toughest test this year- Utah's D. Huntley is likely 100% too, and in remembering mobile QBs vs. this weak Beaver defense, he should be a handful. Even UCLA ran for 256 yards last week, Okie State ran all over OSU. The Beavs have suffered for the past many years, and this one too, from one really bad half- penalties, turnovers, lack of execution, poor QB play, etc. Jake Luton hasn't seen a pass rush this good, and it'll be interesting to see how he adjusts to it considering how slow-footed he is. I expect this game to be close for one half, but a Utah domination for the other.
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    2* Ole Miss +12.5 It's mid-season and these two teams are still a question mark for me. We can excuse Missouri's loss to Wyoming as being their 1st game and on the road. We can excuse Ole Miss' loss to Alabama because, well, it's Alabama. Ole Miss lost their receiving corp to graduation, and so far, only one new guy has stepped up. But, their running game has been very good, and I expect they'll play both QBs Saturday. Even though Plumlee is getting all the press, Matt Corral has played well for a redshirt freshman. Ole Miss has definitely improved defensively, although they are not in Missouri's league. Missouri lost their star defensive player to injury, Cale Garrett. He is their D leader, a playmaker, and soul of the defense. Combine that with Kelly Bryant being at 90% due to a knee bruise, and a decent but not great running game, Ole Miss can hang in there. Missouri's defensive stats, like many NCAAF stats after only 5-6 games, can be inflated(or deflated). They haven't played an offense better than South Carolina, with their backup QBs. Ole Miss HC, Matt Luke, has made some impressive hires as assistants, and his team is playing more disciplined than in the Hugh Freeze era. Upset? Not likely, but maybe a tight finish.
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    .6* SD State -4 Wyoming had a miracle win to start the season vs. Missouri, but overall, they have played some s**t defenses. SD State has got a terrific one, and they will be tough at home. I also not huge fan of Wyoming QB Sean Chambers. Looks like a poor man's Nick Fitzgerald, but makes more mistakes, and pads his stats vs. aforementioned bad Ds. SD State runs a pretty conservative offense, but I think it's a bit underrated. QB Agnew is a senior, and though he's no great passer, he is smart and poised.

    .5 Washington -6 This small play might be a big mistake. Got a feeling the Arizona defense gives up a bunch of points, and UW finds a way to limit Khalil Tate. Arizona HC, Kevin Sumlin, will find a way to disappoint.

    .5 Coastal Carolina -4 CCU might be the most overlooked Sun Belt team, but they are decent on both sides of the ball. At home vs. a dreadful Ga. State defense, I like their chances to further their bowl dreams.

    .4 Iowa +3.5 Iowa and PSU have very strong Ds, but Iowa is at home, and has played the tougher schedule. Penn State will lose eventually.

    .3 Texas A&M +17 Alabama defense is not quite the same, and A&M scores enough to stay within the number.

    .4 Tennessee +6 Freshman QB, Mauer, looked pretty good last week vs. Georgia. Really can place the ball well. Don't think the MSU QB Shrader can do much in the passing game- especially on the road. Vols are desperate for a win.

    .3 Nevada -2.5 After embarrassing loss to Hawaii, and a bye week, they have to be ready for redemption vs. a mediocre opponent. This team beat Purdue.
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    .3 Temple +4.5 ​Brady White is overrated. Temple has been very tough at home, with a defense that keeps it close.
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  24. #24  
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    o fred....................... SDSU vs Wyoming Game


    I was very happy to see you on SDSU it added a lot of confidence to my play. I got them very early in the week at -3.5


    I could not agree more with your write-up on this game. Wyoming sitting at 4-1 with a surprising win over Missouri is a team that is nowhere as good as their 4-1 record.
    They have a very weak passing game sitting at #128 FBS in passing and their Quarterback Chambers is completing only 38% of his passes, that’s right 38%….Their #1 WR has only 125 yards on the season and none of the other WR’s has more than 10 catches on the year. “GO FIGURE”.


    When I saw the total opening at 38 and now it’s at 40 (5 dimes) in a COLLEGE game …………..that tells me what the book thinks’.
    I don’t believe that Wyoming with such a weak passing game can run on this SDSU defense. I feel that’s SDSU’s defense will show up and show out tonight. If I go down in flames tonight on this game I won’t feel as bad as I have on other games I have capped because I feel good about what I have read and saw about these two teams.

    That’s why I made this my big play of the day. GLTU tonight.
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  25. #25  
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    Quote Originally Posted by hilltop View Post
    o fred....................... SDSU vs Wyoming Game


    I was very happy to see you on SDSU it added a lot of confidence to my play. I got them very early in the week at -3.5


    I could not agree more with your write-up on this game. Wyoming sitting at 4-1 with a surprising win over Missouri is a team that is nowhere as good as their 4-1 record.
    They have a very weak passing game sitting at #128 FBS in passing and their Quarterback Chambers is completing only 38% of his passes, that’s right 38%….Their #1 WR has only 125 yards on the season and none of the other WR’s has more than 10 catches on the year. “GO FIGURE”.


    When I saw the total opening at 38 and now it’s at 40 (5 dimes) in a COLLEGE game …………..that tells me what the book thinks’.
    I don’t believe that Wyoming with such a weak passing game can run on this SDSU defense. I feel that’s SDSU’s defense will show up and show out tonight. If I go down in flames tonight on this game I won’t feel as bad as I have on other games I have capped because I feel good about what I have read and saw about these two teams.

    That’s why I made this my big play of the day. GLTU tonight.
    Wyoming has always had issues drawing talent to Laramie, and if you've seen Laramie, you'd know why. I do like their coach, but every year they have an away game or two where they get exposed. Let's hope it's this one. Thought seriously about upping that one, and still might.

    Without Hurts' turnovers this score could be 20-10 or 24-10. Feeling lucky so far.

    Spoke too soon, 17-10.
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