Mistaflava's NFL Football Week 6 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

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Mistaflava's 2019 NFL Record: 35-19-3 ATS (+160.00 Units)

Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 6-3-1 ATS (+40.00 Units)



Coming off the 10-1 ATS Week in Week 4, a step back had to be expected and a mini step back it was as I finished 7-5-1 ATS and lost 24 units due to my big plays on the Chiefs losing. Not a problem. Moving on. Still 17-6-1 ATS the last two weeks in NFL betting.

Wishing everyone a profitable week, let's make some money!

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Thursday, October 10




New York Giants +17 (10 Units)


The New York Giants are decimated to the core as RB Saquon Barkely, WR Sterling Shepard, RB Wayne Gallman Jr and TE Evan Engram have all been deemed out against the #1 ranked Total yards, Passing and Points allowed defense in the NFL the New England Patriots. Not good right? Well no to fast. This is rookie sensation QB Daniel Jones first game on National Television and given the circumstances of all these players being out, I'm not sure how much prepping the New England Patriots have actually done or are they just going to wing it? I'm going with the latter. The Giants were awful last Sunday at home against the Vikings in a game where they were outyarded by a massive total of 279 total yards of offense. Although it's easy to assume they will do exactly the same thing tonight and be outyarded by 200+ total yards, that doesn't mean they will lose by 17. Their three losses this season have all been by less than 20 points. Despite all the injuries, which has been an issue for weeks now, the Giants still average 22.0 points per game in their last three games and 5.4 yards per play. The Patriots are allowing only 10.3 points per game but also allowing 233.3 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play in their last three games. They're good. Rookie RB Jon Hilliman gets the call but I don't see him being a factor even if the Patriots allow 5.1 yards per carry in their last three games. I do however see Daniel Jones being an issue for the Pats on the ground if they aren't ready. He is averaging 6.0 yards per carry this season and has rushed for 2 touchdowns on the ground. In the air his numbers aren't great and protection has been a major issue so I expect the gameplan to include a lot of running and short quick passes. New England has 16 sacks in their last three games, 6 interceptions in those games and 1 fumble recovery. They are not to be messed around with. What I do like about the Giants apart from Jones and his ability to run the ball if he needs to is that they have converted 52.4% of their third down chances their last three games. That's massive against the Patriots #1 ranked 3rd down defense in the NFL because if they can convert a few early and put some points on the board they can probably catch the Patriots sleeping a bit.

The New England Patriots come into this game business as usual coming off a big spread covering win at Washington last Sunday in a game where it looked like they didn't really care until they finally started playing in the second half and ran away with things. So if the Patriots were lackluster to start that game how do you think they will feel about playing against the beat up Giants on a Thursday Night only four days later? I assume they are mediocre again. I think I've been on every Patriots game so far this season and have gone 4-1 ATS with the Steelers game being the only one I got wrong. I remember that if you're going to bet against them on the spread you better make sure their opponent has a defense that can make plays. The Bills had a defense that could make plays and the Jets single handily covered the spread with their defensive and special teams touchdowns. Well the Giants are one of those teams. In their last three games their defense has allowed 20.7 points per game on 388.3 total yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play which seems like a lot. However, that same defense has recorded 10 sacks, 5 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery in their last three games. THEY MAKE PLAYS just like the Jets did and just like the Bills did. As a matter of fact check these numbers out for the Giants. Opponents are converting 3rd downs only 30.6% of the time on third downs the last three games and opponents are scoring touchdowns only 27.3% of the time once in the Red Zone against this group. Impressive stuff. Two areas of weakness for the Patriots have been 3rd downs (33.3% in their last three games, bottom half of the league) and in the Red Zone (scoring touchdowns only 53.8% of the time in their last three games). QB Tom Brady has a QB Rating of only 80.7 in his last three games and although the Giants D is allowing some massive plays (4.9 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per pass attempt) their last three games, the Patriots will probably be a lot more interested in running the ball, extending drives, converting on 3rd downs and getting out of this Thursday Night clash without any injuries and with a simple W. We saw it in the Jets game. They almost didn't care but did enough to win the game. Once they had the lead they just sat back on it, settled for Field Goals (The Giants have forced an NFL Leading 10 FG attempts the last three games). I like the Giants defense to keep this one close tonight and I don't expect Bill Bellichik to be going crazy with big plays.

The times have changed and the rosters have changed but it's hard to ignore the fact that the Giants have covered the spread in 5 straight games versus the Patriots (including the Super Bowl in 2008) and have covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 meetings going back to 1996. The Giants are coming off a big loss at home but they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a double digit loss at home and they are an incredible 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games dating back to the 2018 season. The Giants are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they score less than 15 points in their previous game. This is typically the kind of game the Patriots win big and run away with early and keep pouring it on but would you believe that in their last three games they average only 2.3 points per 4th Quarter in those games? This team is satisfied with just winning. I think Daniel Jones will have a decent performance given the circumstances (injuries) in his first game on Primetime television (always an added bonus for young quarterbacks) and I think the Giants defense makes enough big plays that they can force some turnovers and make some stops tonight. Don't forget the Pats have turned the ball over 4 times in their last three games. I'm usually on the Pats for these big spread games but not tonight. Not with a young QB like Jones and not against a solid turnover generating defense like the Giants.

Trend of the Game: New York Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.


New England 23, NY Giants 13





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Been tailing you since I’ve found this forum and will continue tonight. Thanks for everything man, and your write ups are always spot on.
 

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Sunday, October 13




Carolina Panthers -2.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MORNING***

The Carolina Panthers invade Tottenham Stadium (England for those who somehow don't know why this game is being played at 9:30am ET) with one thing on their minds aside from a win and that's revenge. In the first meeting against Tampa Bay this season the Panthers lost 20-14 at home as a -6.5 point home favorite but they outyarded Tampa Bay by 63 total yards in that game. The Panthers offense is on absolute fire right now and averaging 29.3 points per game and 385 total yards on 6.5 yards per play in their last three games. Since the loss to Tampa this team has won three straight games beating Arizona, Houston and Jacksonville with two of those wins coming on the road. Tampa Bay's defense is better than people know but in their last three games they have given up 34.3 points per game on 453 total yards of offense for a whopping 6.8 yards per play. They are in trouble here. The Panthers scored 0 touchdowns in the first meeting with QB Cam Newton at the helms. Now QB Kyle Allen is in charge and he has been great the last three games completing 65.9% of his passes for 201 passing yards and 6.6 yards per pass attempt while throwing 0 interceptions and averaging a QB Rating of 103.0 which is among the NFL leaders. Tampa's secondary has been torched for 382.3 passing yards per game their last three games and opponents have completed 68.6% of their passes for 8.2 yards per pass attempt in those games with average QB Ratings of 100.5 in those games. I didn't even mention QB Christian McCaffrey who has been the MVP of this league the last three weeks as the Panthers average 6.4 yards per carry their last three games. There is no chance they are held without a touchdown in this game today and they face a Buccaneers defense that has allowed 46.2% of third downs to be converted against them the last three weeks and who have allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns 75% of the time in the Red Zone. Carolina's offense should roll in this one and will score more than 14 points.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-3 SU on the season and have been alternating wins and losses in every game this season. Their two wins have come against Carolina in Week 2 and in Los Angeles against the Rams in a shock win during Week 4 of the regular season. Although the Bucs kept things close last weekend in their game at New Orleans and lost 31-24 the game should not have been that close and the Buccaneers actually got outyarded in that game by a whopping 205 total yards. They have now been outyarded in three of their last four games overall and are just not playing good football. Their offense is a never a concern and is always going to get some yardage and score points as they come into this game averaging 36.7 points per game and have done that on 405 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play which is still less than the Panthers. Carolina's bend but don't break defense has allowed only 19 points per game in their last three games despite allowing 5.2 yards per play on only 339.7 total yards of offense. The big problem for Carolina has been their run defense and they have allowed 135.3 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry their last three games but the Buccaneers don't have an effective running game and average only 3.9 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air QB Jameis Winston has actually been great averaging 296.3 passing yards per game and completing 62.9% of his passes for 8.5 yards per pass attempt the last three games. He has an average QB Rating of 110.4 in those games but Carolina's defense just does not allow these big plays Winston likes to reel off. Their last three opponent quarterbacks have an average QB Rating of only 76.9 and they have allowed only 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Giving the heads up right now that DT Gerald McCoy should be back for this game against his old team and the Panthers defense has a crazy 15 sacks in their last three games and have also intercepted 3 passes and recovered 3 fumbles in those games. Those are crazy numbers. Tampa has done a good job of protecting the football (2 turnovers in last three games) but they are due for some turnovers and I'm calling for 2+ turnovers by this offense.

First and foremost we all know how tough it is to beat the same team twice in one NFL season so your lean should already be on the Panthers coming into this because they lost the first time but that was with QB Cam Newton and the offense scored 0 touchdowns. They have not lost since and average 29.3 points per game. I went all the way back to 2013 and 2014 but can't find a single season where Tampa Bay was able to sweep both games in this series. This is usually the time of the season where the Buccaneers and any success they've had so far go down the gutter and they are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in this month. The underdog has always dominated this series but that changes a bit with this game being played in London and right now the Panthers come in as one of the hottest teams in the league that nobody is talking about. Although this is not in Tampa Bay the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Tampa Bay where they are listed as the road team and the ROAD TEAM has covered 8 of the last 11 although again we are on a neutral field.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 October games.


Carolina 34, Tampa Bay 13





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Mr. Flava...…..continued success with your Sun. action buddy.....on Car. with you......have a solid day my friend...…...indy
 

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Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (10 Units)

The Philadelphia Eagles come into this game off two big wins over the Packers and Jets (not so big) but before you get all excited about this team you need to know that they outyarded the short handed Jets by 137 total yards but were outyarded by the Packers by 155 total yards and still found a way to win the game. The Eagles offense is starting to find it's stride and they come into this game averaging a very nice 28.9 points per game their last three games on 324.7 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play in those games. Have you heard about the underrated Minnesota Vikings defense? In their last three games they have allowed only 13.3 points per game and have allowed only 260.7 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play which is in the TOP 10 of all categories in the NFL for the span of the last three weeks. The Eagles to love to mix in some runs and passes pretty much equally (30.7 each over the last three games) and they average 4.2 yards per carry in those games on the ground. Having said that you can forget about establishing a run game against these Vikings who have allowed 74.7 rushing yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry over the course of their last three games. In the air, QB Carson Wentz is averaging 195.7 passing yards per game while completing only 56.5% of his passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt the last three games with an average QB Rating of 97.5 in those games. The Vikings defense allows a lot of short yardage completions but opponents manage only 5.3 yards per pass attempt against them the last three games and they have 9 sacks and 2 interceptions. Those last three opponents are converting on 3rd downs only 37.2% of the time and scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone only 25% of the time. This defense is the real deal and the Eagles are going to struggle in this one.

The Minnesota Vikings are never really respected but that's because they look great one week and look awful the next. A good example of that would be their two home games this season where they beat the Atlanta Falcons 28-12 but went out the next week and lost in Green Bay. Then they came home and beat the Oakland Raiders 34-14 at home but then went to Chicago and lost 16-6 and looked awful. The Vikings offense tends to stall in road games and they come into this game averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games on 365.7 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play in those games. The Eagles defense looks good on paper because of their performance against the Jets but they have allowed 20.0 points per game and 302 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play. The Eagles are kind of like the Vikings when it comes to run defense. Chances are you won't be establishing the run against them as they allow 76.7 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry in their last three games but the Vikings run game is not just any run game. RB Dalvin Cook has been on a rampage and the Vikings average 154 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry in those games. In the air QB Kirk Cousins continues to be criticized in the media (former players now speaking out) but in his last three games he has completed 76.2% of his passes for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and 211.7 passing yards per game with an average QB Rating of 109.0 which is a whole lot better than Carson Wentz. Sacks continue to be a problem for this offensive line (9 in last three games) and the Eagles are going to send everything they have at Cousins today but I love the fact that he has not thrown a pick in over three weeks. The Eagles defense allows touchdowns in the Red Zone 50% of the time in their last three games and I like the Vikings to convert on some big plays against this defense allowing 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles won't get shredded but if they can't contain Cook early this will be a long day.

The last time Philadelphia was in Minnesota was in 2013 and they lost 48-30 in a December road game. There is a stigma around the Vikings and that is that they can't win or play well against good teams and their road games at Chicago and Green Bat kind of confirm that. Their two home wins came against Atlanta and Oakland. I see a bit of a different outcome here. Minnesota was tremendous in October last year and they come into this game 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight October games and they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a winning record on the road. That's impressive and this is a good chance for this team to throw their name in as real contenders. Minnesota over the years have been one of the most consistent home teams and are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 home games. I'm taking Vikings here.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight October games.


Minnesota 23, Philadelphia 13





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I'm hitting the road for the most part of the morning to enjoy Thanksgiving (Canada) so Happy Thanksgiving to all the Canadian forum posters. Here are the rest of my plays for the early games:



Baltimore Ravens -10.5 (10 Units)

Miami Dolphins +4.5 (10 Units)






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New York Jets +7.5 (10 Units)

Los Angeles Rams -3 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE AFTERNOON***





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Mediocre day so far, Rams a massive disappointment. Going big in tonight's game.
 

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Pittsburgh Steelers +6 (100 Units) ***PLAY OF THE YEAR***

The Pittsburgh Steelers are basically starting a 3rd string quarterback in this game (making his 1st NFL start) on Sunday Night Football tonight and I like it. The Steelers have been awful this season with the losses of Big Ben and Antonio Brown but their defense has still been impressive. They are coming off a crushing loss to the Ravens last week but they played well in that game and were able to score 23 points. Let's just get right to it. QB Devin Hodges came in relief in that Ravens came and completed 77.8% of his passes for 68 passing yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 98.1. In their last three games the Chargers defense have allowed 219 passing yards per game for 8.4 yards per pass attempt and opponents have completed 71.8% of their passes with an average QB Rating of 107.7. I think Hodges will be just fine and I think he looked good enough last week to give him a shot here. The Steelers offensive line is a lot better than they get credit for and they have allowed only 3 sacks in their last three games. The Chargers bring a ton of pressure and with the kid making his first NFL start tonight you can expect that pressure to continue but when teams have picked up the pressure they have been horrendous. The Chargers have allowed their last three opponents to convert 45.2% of the time and teams are scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone 66.7% of the time against this defense in those games. The Chargers defense has 10 sacks in their last three games but again the Steelers have been very good at picking up pressure. Don't expect much from the Steelers run game tonight because the Chargers are pretty good against the run but Mike Tomlin knows that to win his quarterback has to make some plays and the Chargers haven't been able to stop anyone. The last three QB's this defense has faced? Joe Flacco, Josh Rose and Deshaun Watson and they still couldn't stop them.

The Los Angeles Chargers are not a good football team and I'm not sure why the perception is otherwise. They were badly outyarded at home against the Denver Broncos last week and their only wins of the season were against Miami and against Indianapolis in overtime. The same Colts team that was just recovering from the shock of Andrew Luck retiring a week before that game or whatever it was. How good has this Steelers defense been? This is why I am taking them tonight. In their last three games the Steelers have allowed only 17.7 points per game and allowed only 296 total yards of offense per game on 4.5 yards per play. That's impressive. Their opponents? San Francisco, Cincinnati and Baltimore. 2 of those 3 teams are good and the Steelers went 3-0 ATS in those games. The Chargers offense is averaging only 21 points per game in their last three games on 334 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play in those games. Their running game has been absolutely atrocious averaging only 62.3 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. Even with RB Melvin Gordon back I don't see things changing as the Steelers allow only 126.3 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry their last three games. In the air, QB Philip Rivers has completed 70.4% of his passes for 271.7 passing yards per game on 6.5 yards per pass attempt in his last three games with an average QB Rating of 91.9 in those games. Not bad at all. Having said that, the offensive line is not good and they have allowed 6 sacks in those last three games and the blitzing Steelers are going to come hard tonight. They have 14 sacks in their last three games and managed to hold Lamar Jackson, Andy Dalton and Jimmy Garropolo to an average QB RATING OF ONLY 59.2. That's #1 in the NFL over the span of the last three weeks of play. They have 6 interceptions and have recovered 4 fumbles during those last three games to go with their 14 sacks. That's incredible. Teams are scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone only 38.5% of the time the last three games and they have forced 6 FG attempts in those games.

These two teams don't meet too often but they met last year at Heinz Field and the Chargers won a wild one 33-30. This is the college style return/revenge game and Mike Tomlin won in San Diego back in 2015. The Chargers come into this game 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games and I'm not sure how any can back them. They have covered the spread in only 11 of their last 40 home games dating back to the San Diego days. That has to be the worst record in the NFL. The Steelers are an incredible 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a spread cover the game before and they come into this game on a 3-0 ATS streak despite being only 1-4 SU on the season. You can use the angle of the young QB getting his first start as a reason to go with the Chargers but listen to this. The Steelers were outyarded against Seattle by 164 total yards and lost by 2 points. They were outyarded by 197 total yards against San Francisco and lost by only 4 points. They were outyarded by the Baltimore Ravens last week and lost in overtime by 3 points. This group keeps things close and I think they get a shock win tonight. This is my biggest play of the season!

Trend of the Game: LA Chargers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 40 home games (dating back to San Diego).


Pittsburgh 24, LA Chargers 13





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Looking forward to hearing your perspective as today was not my day.

I've watched 3 Chargers games this year and didn't like what I saw. Aside from the Patriots game where the entire team was in sleep mode, the Steelers defense has been one of the most underrated in the NFL. Look at the turnovers forced, look at the Red Zone defense and look at opponents QBR's. The offense is a massive question mark but I think Hodges can keep things basic against a very mediocre defense. Good luck!
 

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Of course you’re going big on tonight’s game...you play with Monopoly money.

make sure you type up a couple of paragraphs to go with it. Cause everyone reads those :):)


Listen man I post on here for people to read my perspective on games. I rate plays with Unit sizes to show how much I like a certain play. Nobody is forcing you to tail or to even ever bet on or follow the plays. I could open a website and sell my analysis (good or bad) but I choose to post it here instead. For free. That's the truth. I don't ever proclaim myself to be a great capper but I post my thoughts. No idea why people like you have an issue with it but I wish you all the luck in life my guy, you'll need a hug or two I'm sure. If you have some writeups for some of your picks I would love to read what you have to say. If it bothers you so much why even come in here? LOL. Weird man.
 

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