Looks like VT opening +3.5 as a home dog to UNC, Week 8

Codebreaker · Oct 13, 2019

I was thinking VT would open +6 or worse based on what I know about the team, Hmmmm

I'm teasing that number up to +10.5 based on Vegas opening number. Vegas is seeing VT has gotten better, my naked eye says, yes a little, but not so fast. However, the folks that set these numbers are professionals who need to keep a wife happy and the kids with the newest I phones. UNC +10.5

Also it looks like UVa open is -4 vs Duke at home. Looks like I will be teasing Duke up to +11, though with UVA -4 it seems like Vegas thinks UVA rebounds this week at home and beats the Dukes, My theory is Duke has enough defense and a good QB to keep the number under +11, or Duke just wins out. Seems like the Perkins Heisman hype in Charlottsville has disappeared like all the Confederate Statues in town. Duke +11

Codebreaker · Oct 13, 2019

oops VT +10.5 over UNC

Codebreaker · Oct 13, 2019

Home field has not been, what it used to be for VT. Back when Foster had lighting fast undersized DE's on the edge, the home crowd noise gave them and edge in pass rush. UNC at 3-3 ranks 7th in the country in SOS, while VT 4-2 comes in at 107th SOS. Despite that huge gap with SOS, VT is only a 3.5 home dog? I'm betting and I think Vegas agrees, UNC won't run away with this game, and VT can hold it under 11.5. Hooker is proving not to be the turnover machine ol Willis was.

Codebreaker · Oct 14, 2019

FSU is only a +2.5 dog at Wake Forrest in week 8. Vegas is saying something here. I teased FSU up to 34 last weekend vs Clemson and I was afraid it wasn't enough. It almost wasn't as Clemson rolled the helpless Seminoles right off the field. Wake got into a massive offensive war with UL, however lost on the last play after scoring 50+ points.

While it's a risk to tease FSU up to +9.5 after Wake proved it could score so many points vs a similar defense in UL. Vegas is suggesting FSU can hang with Wake by only making wake a 2.5 favorite at home. Betting with Willie Taggert is not something to be taken lightly. I will evaluate this bet as the week progresses

Codebreaker · Oct 15, 2019

Week 8, Florida heading into South Carolina, the Cocks are only +5.5 dogs. Hmmmmm. UF looked quite good vs LSU, except for the final score. Of course USC got the surprise upset of AUB. Vegas is saying the AUB upset by USC was not a fluke.

I expect UF's defense will travel to USC this week, which I put or par with AUB's. Trask is a good QB and the backup is no slouch. UF has the WR and running game to play with anyone. Why only +5.5 for UF this week? Trap game after LSU letdown? Perhaps, but how I read the number is, USC is a pretty good team too, and they are at home after a huge win last week.

I'm thinking of taking USC and teasing them up 7. I'm going to wait a few days cause I think that +5.5 might get to +7, as the hangovers in Gainsville wear off and Gator backers want their money back after the loss at LSU. USC +14, if i can get it, and sprinkle a little on the ML on UF. UF just has too much talent to lose to USC, but maybe just enough feeling sorry for themselves not to win by more then 14.

Codebreaker · Oct 15, 2019

Miss St as a 19 point home dog is pretty impressive number for Vegas to open that game at. The loss at Tenn was no fluke, unlike Miami's loss to VT a few weeks ago. Vegas is telling you Miss St is just not very good this year. LSu will destroy them in Week 8, in their own stadium. 55-13 is not out of line. LSU is just too loaded with talent on both sides of the ball to have a serious let down after the UF game.

I'll be teasing LSU down to -12, just because it fits my betting model, and eliminates any kind of funny business if somehow Miss St gets this game into the 4Q.

The odds of covering the -19 seem pretty good. I would worry if Vegas opened this game at -10 or less, it would suggest the Tenn loss was a fluke and Miss St could hang with LSU. My guess is that -19 ends up closer to -23 by kickoff.

Bol, hope that helps

MattyMatt · Oct 15, 2019

Codebreaker said:
Week 8, Florida heading into South Carolina, the Cocks are only +5.5 dogs. Hmmmmm. UF looked quite good vs LSU, except for the final score. Of course USC got the surprise upset of AUB. Vegas is saying the AUB upset by USC was not a fluke.

I expect UF's defense will travel to USC this week, which I put or par with AUB's. Trask is a good QB and the backup is no slouch. UF has the WR and running game to play with anyone. Why only +5.5 for UF this week? Trap game after LSU letdown? Perhaps, but how I read the number is, USC is a pretty good team too, and they are at home after a huge win last week.

I'm thinking of taking USC and teasing them up 7. I'm going to wait a few days cause I think that +5.5 might get to +7, as the hangovers in Gainsville wear off and Gator backers want their money back after the loss at LSU. USC +14, if i can get it, and sprinkle a little on the ML on UF. UF just has too much talent to lose to USC, but maybe just enough feeling sorry for themselves not to win by more then 14.

The Gamecocks upset #3 UGA, not AUB, but Ido hope they can do the same this weekend to FLA. If Hilinski is able to play the whole game, and the D shows up again, they definitely have a shot. Williams Bryce will be a rocking, that is for sure, and I wish it wasn't a Noon game again...

Codebreaker · Oct 15, 2019

But of course it's UGA not AUB, They just all kinda blend together. UGA and AUB are virtually interchangeable for this example. Both have superior defenses, though UGA is better coached I believe. I believe UF beats USC this week, and it could be decisive, however Vegas is saying not so fast on the decisive front, leaving hope for a win on USC at +14 teased.

BOL, sounds like you are a fan of the Cock. Sorry, my team was the Gobblers at one point,

hno:

HarleyMan3791 · Oct 15, 2019

Big Gamecock fan here too!

Serbone · Oct 15, 2019

Georgia outgained So Carolina dramtically, you'd think it was a blowout, but Dawgs committed 4 turnovers, the kind that really hurt, to 0 for the Gamecocks.
So Carolina is a good team but the Georgia win was not quite as impressive as it may seem.

Codebreaker · Oct 16, 2019

Yes, UGA had 3 picks and lost 1 fumble, USC had zero. One was a pick six, that was the difference in the game. On the ground USC averaged 3.9 ypc vs UGA had 4.0 ypc, pretty even. UGA threw the ball 52 times vs USC only 32, yet the completions were only off by 7. YPC were also close, with less then a yard difference.

Looking at the stats clearly UGA did not play up to their abilities, but USC gets credit for competing and ultimately taking away the only thing of importance, the Win. USC is a home dog at +6, Vegas is saying this game will not be a blowout, USC is a good team, as UF is going to find out. Anything except their A game might cost UF on the road here, even with their A Game UF might not be able to win by more then 14.

UF is coming off two huge games, with the last being a huge disappointment at LSU. Are they feeling sorry enough for themselves to lose to USC on the road? If their defense does not travel this week, UF will be in for a war on Saturday. Trask is not good enough to carry UF, if they have a sub par defensive effort at USC.

I'm teasing USC up to as close to +14 as I can get.

BOL

Codebreaker · Oct 16, 2019

Vegas has GT as a 18.5 point dog at home this week vs Miami. Yes, Miami has proven to be inconsistent and has for a decade now. Yes, they are going on the road vs a GT team that is simply handicapped. GT has zero vertical passing game. The OL is evolving as the season goes on, but adjusting to a passing game vs the option attack will take 2-3 years.

Miami will take this game lightly, just as they did vs VT. However they do have talent, and even a poor performance should be enough to coast past GT. Vegas sees a blow out for the Canes. I think they are correct here however since I do not trust Miami I will tease them down 7 to -11.5. I should play them on the ML too. However, with Miami I don't want to pile on, they are just too inconsistent.

Stanford is a -9 at home vs the Dumpster fire UCLA this week. With UCLA being so bad this year i am surprised the game is not closer to -14 Stanford. -9 is impressive but Vegas is saying Stanford has questions too. I do not have enough confidence in UCLA to tease them up to +16 vs Stanford. I just think Stanford has enough to take care of business this weekend at home. However, with Vegas only making Tree at 9 point favorite at home I will tease Stanford down 7 to -2 at home vs UCLA.

Warning, for some bazaar reason Stanford has been an enigma for me for years now. Just when I am certain they will cover a spread they blow it, or worse, when I swear they are going to get killed they win.

BOL

tar_heel_in_sc · Oct 16, 2019

Codebreaker said:
Home field has not been, what it used to be for VT. Back when Foster had lighting fast undersized DE's on the edge, the home crowd noise gave them and edge in pass rush. UNC at 3-3 ranks 7th in the country in SOS, while VT 4-2 comes in at 107th SOS. Despite that huge gap with SOS, VT is only a 3.5 home dog? I'm betting and I think Vegas agrees, UNC won't run away with this game, and VT can hold it under 11.5. Hooker is proving not to be the turnover machine ol Willis was.

UNC's secondary is very banged up and there will be freshmen all over the place in the back 7. VT does have some talent at WR. Combine that with Hooker's mobility, and I'm afraid that will open things up for some big plays.

Both teams really need this game, so I agree it will likely be a dogfight to the wire. Hopefully, my Heels can pull it out.

Codebreaker · Oct 16, 2019

Hooker struggles with hitting tight targets down field. Sure he can get it close to a wide open receiver. Yes, Hooker is mobile but he is no M Vick. I've got VT teased up to +10.5. UNC has the talent to get after Hooker, can UNC create tight windows he'll have to throw in? VT has a very poor running game, like the last two weeks this game is on Hookers shoulders.

I like UNC's QB, he is a winner and will compete for 60 mins. VT has no pass rush and it's LBs are fat, slow and play horrible technique. NOT Running to the wrong gaps, slowly, is something that Foster preaches the relentlessly. Recruiting has fallen so dramatically over the last 3 years, poor Foster is stuck with very sub par talent. He seems to have decided there is nothing he can do now, so no need to have a stoke if the Mike or Whip run themselves out of half the plays.

Having said all that, Hookers addition has cut down tremendously on turnovers. He is not a great QB but at least he can run away from trouble and tends not to turn the ball over.

Codebreaker · Oct 17, 2019

Im Teasing Navy down 7 to -7 as the home favorite vs USF. At -14 Vegas think Navy takes care of business at home. I would like to see that number closer to -17. I just don't think USF has the discipline on defense to stop Navy for 4 quarters. So Navy -7 teased should work just fine.

CoachCB · Oct 17, 2019

Both of UF's starting DE's (Zuniga and Greenard) are out for the USC game. Their backups aren't even close to their talent level. I expect Muschamp to play Muschamp ball: run, run, run, run....control the clock. If UF doesn't turn the ball over (which they are prone to do at times: see the Miami, UT, and Auburn games), I expect UF to win big. Williams Bryce Stadium won't be "rocking" at noon, and I expect a typical letdown game from Muschamp. UF OL is suspect, so I expect the SC D to come after Trask. If Mullen schemes around it, there's no reason to think UF can't move the ball.

Codebreaker · Oct 18, 2019

My Stanford enigma continues. What a bloody mess that UCLA game was. I guess Vegas had not seen the 3rd string QB for Stanford before. I did warn anyone why wanted to tale that game.

On to Pitt and Syracuse tonight. Two mid level ACc teams meet in that horrible Dome. Syracuse sure looked neutered against NCST. It seemed like Syracuse does not have a QB yet. Syracuse is a home dog +3.5. Im going to bump that number up to +7 and hope Babers can muster some offense in that Dome. Pitt has improved from the opening weekend. Can they take Syracuse in that dome by more then 7? Should be fun game to watch I think

Codebreaker · Oct 18, 2019

I'm going to tease Northwestern up 7 to +34 tonight at home. Yes, OSU has shredded teams so far this season. NW has a reputation of fighting like hell in games vs B-12 teams. +34 is a very large number at home against a team that has a superior coach and no serious defects like GT.

Yes OSU will win this game tonight, I just do not believe they will whip NU by 34 in their home stadium.

I am pretty confident in this game, more so then the Pitt/SU contest.

Codebreaker · Oct 19, 2019

OSU is serious this year. NW got no mercy. OSU is not taking their foot off the gas this year. I teased NW up to 34 points at home and OSU scored 50+ holding NW to just 3 points. HArbaugh is going to get slaughtered vs OSU, they better play PSU real tough today.

Codebreaker · Oct 19, 2019

The Gamecocks are hanging tough. Can they survive the 2nd half talent gap? UF down two DE's is helping USC offense. UF has more talent USC will have to get some turnovers in 2nd half to survive the inevitable UF 2nd half rally. +12.5 USC, hopefully they can stay inside that number.

Miami is the only team in America that finds a way to F-up a game with hapless GT. I have Miami teased down, just cannot trust those jokers, All hat very littl cattle