Saturday Service Play Thread 10/19/2019

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Winning Points/Sports

Essler 3* Big 12 GOY - Okla St

Sports Cheetah
virginia -3
oklahoma st -3
florida -5
smu -7.5

anyone have Cokin or PGF 3% ??

Newsletter Year to Date Records and Picks

Confidential Kick-Off
11* (4-2) Temple
10* (14-15) Army, LSU, WKU, Baltimore (NFL)
o/u (4-7) LAR/ATL o54, NE/NYJ u42.5

Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (20-15-2) TCU ML, TCU/KSU UNDER, UAB, Tennessee, USC
NFL Best Bets (13-11-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (1-5-1) Baylor
4* (2-5) Tulane
3* (5-2) Utah
Upset pick (4-3) Michigan
Betcha Didn't Know (5-6) Denver (NFL)
Awesome Angle (2-4-1) Baylor
Incredible Stat (4-2) Baylor

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (3-2-1) Baltimore
4* (1-5) LAC
3* (3-3) Atlanta

Pointwise NCAA
1* (4-9) Ohio St, Wazzu
2* (3-4) Penn St
3* (2-5) UNC
4* (6-8) Iowa St, Navy
5* (11-3) Houston, Buffalo

Pointwise NFL
3* (4-2) SF
4* (9-3) NO, Houston
5* (6-5-1) Philly, NE

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (3-3) UAB
3* (6-8) Tulsa, EMU
2* (8-6) So. Miss, FSU
Underdog Play of the Week (2-5) Baylor
Tech Play of the Week (2-4)
Revenge Play of the Week (3-4) Duke
Situational Play of the Week (3-2) Baylor
Series Play of the Week (2-1) Oregon

Power Sweep NFL
4* (4-2) SF
3* (4-2) Minn
2* (4-2) NO
NFL System play (5-2) Minn
4* Pro Angle (5-1) Buffalo
3* o/u play (5-1) Miami/Buffalo UNDER

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (5-3-1) OK St, Stanford
2* (12-11-1) Florida, La Tech, Penn St

Powers' Picks NFL
3* (3-3) NYG
2* (9-3) Indy, Green Bay

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-1)
NCAA Best Bets (15-9) Miami-FL, Florida St, USC, MTSU
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0)
NFL Best Bets (8-5) Arizona, NO

Red Sheet
90* (1-0)
89* (5-8) Missouri, Duke
88* (15-12-1) Ohio St, Cincy (NCAA), Boise St, Baltimore (NFL)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (2-5) Cincy
NCAA 3* (6-1) Arizona St
NFL 4* (2-4) Washington
NFL 3* (4-2) LAC

Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (2-1)
MTI 4.5* (2-1) NO +3.5
MTI 4* (3-3) Houston/Indy u48
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-2-1)
SBB 4* (4-5) NYG, LAR/Atl UNDER
Pick 60 Play of the Week (4-3)
Cajun NCAA (5-3) Kentucky

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (4-4) Ravens/Seahawks OVER
2* (6-5) Raiders/Packers OVER
Team Total of the Week (4-2) KC o26.5

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (7-3) FAU, UNC
NCAA 4* (9-14-1) Georgia St, Cal, Missouri, SDSU
NFL 4* (4-2) Minnesota

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (13-13-2) Maryland, Boise St, Navy, Air Force
NFL Key Releases (10-8) Houston, LAC, NO
Tech Play (4-3) Stanford

Dave Cokin:

323 Army -6

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 19 2019 4:00PM
390 Oklahoma St. -3.5(-108) Pinnacle vs 389 Baylor triple-dime bet

Analysis: We love Oklahoma State here. Oklahoma St is fresh off a bye after a misleading loss to Texas Tech in their last game. How was it misleading? Oklahoma St was -5 in TO’s! Oklahoma St QB Spencer Sanders after the game: “I mean, I had 5 turnovers, not the offensive line, not the receivers, not the defense. I did. Spencer Sanders had 5 turnovers. I can’t do that. I’ve got to do better.” Meanwhile Baylor is off a dramatic 2OT win over Texas Tech last week. The Bears are unbeaten but have two “coin flip” wins. Baylor is dealing with a key injury that won’t be factored into the market place. They lost their best defensive player Clay Johnston (58 tackles, 2nd leading tackler only has 30!). Stats wise, Baylor is the better team but they’ve played the much weaker schedule.

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 19 2019 3:30PM
384 Louisiana Tech 1.0(-110) Westgate vs 383 Southern Miss. double-dime bet

Analysis: Louisiana Tech should be plenty rested off a bye and a blowout win over UMass last week. This line says Southern Miss is clearly the superior team. We don’t agree. Louisiana Tech is +65.6 ypg (So Miss +56.3), LT is +11.0 ppg (So Miss +0.7) and LT is +1.4 yards per play (So Miss +0.5). Sure LT has played the softer schedule they’re at home catching a point. The Bulldogs also have revenge here for an OT loss here two years ago (blew an 11-point lead in the final minutes) and then a 1-point loss at Southern Miss last year.

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 19 2019 12:00PM
373 Florida -5.0(-105) Pinnacle vs 374 South Carolina double-dime bet

Analysis: A misleading final for South Carolina last week creates value on Florida this week. Remember South Carolina was -14 first downs and -171 yards last week vs Georgia but were +4 in TO’s. Meanwhile, Florida should’ve covered vs LSU. The Gators were intercepted in the end zone and stopped on downs at the LSU 2-yard line on their final 2 possessions and actually led 28-21 in the second half. We came away very impressed with Florida QB Kyle Trask (310 yards and 3 TD’s). The Gators have a bye on deck and can ill afford another loss. South Carolina QB Ryan Hilinski will play here but will he be 100%?

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 19 2019 7:30PM
422 Penn St. -9.0(-105) Pinnacle vs 421 Michigan single-dime bet

Analysis: This is a “White Out” game for Penn St. The Nittany Lions are 9-6 ATS +2.5 ppg in those games and remember 12 of those 15 games came against ranked teams. James Franklin is 4-1 ATS in “White Out” game (+8.5 ppg). There is a huge mismatch here with the Penn State defense vs the Michigan offense. Penn St’s defense is No. 3 in the country in yards per play allowed (3.8). Meanwhile, Michigan’s offense is No. 81 in the country in yards per play (5.6). The Wolverines in their last 20 games on the road vs ranked teams: 1-19 SU (-16.1 ppg) and 5-15 ATS (-8.8 ppg).

+EV: CFB 2u: Florida State Seminoles +114 (Saturday, October 19th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 321 Clemson Tigers -23.5 -108 (Saturday, October 19th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 391 Auburn Tigers -18.5 -114 (Saturday, October 19th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 390 Oklahoma State Cowboys -3 -117 (Saturday, October 19th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 411 Charlotte 49ers +9.5 -105 (Saturday, October 19th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 361 Toledo Rockets -103 (Moneyline) (Saturday, October 19th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 393 Texas A&M Aggies -6 -110 (Saturday, October 19th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 336 Bowling Green Falcons +11 -105 (Saturday, October 19th)

NICK BORRMAN

Game:Bologna at Juventus
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 2:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Juventus -1.25 (-120)

Italy Serie A

(201293) Bologna at (201294) Juventus
Juve is back where they belong atop the table in Serie A after defeating Inter Milan 2-1 in their last match. The 8-time defending Italian champions didn't look the best to start the year, yet they still were getting results. They are 6-1-0 (W-D-L) in league play with a 13:6 goal differential and were actually conceding more than they historically do until they last couple of matches they seem to have tightened up their back line. They beat Spal 2-0 at home and followed that up with an impressive 3-0 win over Leverkusen from Germany in the Champions League before beating the aforementioned Inter Milan on the road. On the year they are unbeaten in nine matches including the Champions League with seven wins and two draws.
Bologna finished 10th in the table last season with an 11-11-16 record and a -8 goal differential and so far this year, look to be pretty much the same team, currently sitting 11th with a 2-3-2 record and an even goal differential. Historically they have struggled against Juve, as most Italian teams have, losing seven straight matches and have failed to cover this spread in four of the last five against Juve. At home, Juve has won and covered four straight against Bologna including last year, winning 2-0 with what should be almost the same lineup, minus Chiellini on defense who is out injured (although he actually sat out this match last year). They held a 75% to 25% possession advantage and outshot Bologna 15 to 5 with 9 on goal compared to just 2 for the visitors.
De Ligt, Juve's $80M transfer this offseason from Ajax, has started to anchor down that backline after a learning curve to start the season, getting used to Serie A. The 1-2 punch of Ronaldo and Dybala up front has really started to look strong as well as the two feed off each other and teams cannot simply zero in on Ronaldo as Dybala is a lethal scorer as well. All in all, the talent level of Juve is head and shoulders above Bologna and I believe this line should be closer to -1.75 or -2 so I see tremendous value here.

TAKE JUVENTUS -1.25 (split line of -1 and -1.5)
Line Parameter: 5% to -1.5 but prefer -1.25 to protect half our bet against a one goal win and you can pay up to -130 to get the -1.25 number. Grab this number now as this line should move to -1.5 or worse by kickoff.

DREW MARTIN

Game: (395) TULANE at (396) MEMPHIS
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: TULANE 4.5 (-109)

4% at 3.5

3% at 3

2% at 2.5

DR. CHUCK

Game: (367) OREGON at (368) WASHINGTON U
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 50.0 (-108)

I would love this even more at 51 and it would rate a 5% play for sure...but at 50 it is still solid value with a couple of teams facing off in a Pac 12 matchup they both need and off great performances! This a spot we played hard with the Michigan Iowa matchup and meets our 45/45/55 system in college football for conference games before November. This system is now 17-3-3 to the Under after the way way Under matchup from the B1G a few weeks ago...finishing 10-3 Michigan.
These 2 teams come into this matchup very differently than in most previous years with Chris Petersen as the Husky head coach...Oregon has the objectively better defense...and at home...maybe the best defense in the country. Even traveling to play in Seattle they bring in a 3.8 yards per play average, which is 3rd in the nation! They allow just 3.4 yards per play and have only gone Over a total of 50 one single time all season...when they bitch slapped Nevada all over the field 77-6! They allow less than 10 points per game and just 0.14 points per play to opponents! They also have a staunch pass defense allowing just 4.6 yards per attempt and in the top 5 in most defensive categories.
Washington has, for the most part, played to the strengths and level of the competition this season. They'll sling it in mud for a 20-19 game against Cal or a 23-13 game against Stanford or go for a mid-70s total facing Hawaii or Arizona. This makes me think the Huskies, much more confident when trying to turn defense into offense chooses to slug it out in the trenches against an unbelievable Ducks defensive squad.
I don't know if 10-3 is what we're looking for here...but this system rarely loses and when the defenses are this good a la Michigan and Iowa it tends to be even easier than just playing a rote system play!

Game: (359) ARIZONA STATE at (360) UTAH
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: ARIZONA STATE 14 (-120)

Maybe my favorite line in a long time. It's just is flat out crazy Herm's boys are getting 2 TDs even heading to the Salt Lake to face a daunting Utah defense. Both teams are 5-1 and the winner of this game will be the sole leader of the Pac 12 South and the inside track to the championship game. Arizona State pulled off a Jayden Daniels induced excellent late game win over Wazzu to get to this game at 5-1...meanwhile Utah throttled Wazzu and Oregon State allowing just 20 points total in the games combined.
We have the Sun Devils at 2-0 SU on the road this season, we have Herm at 5-1 ATS as a road dog in his short ASU career, and we have a total at 45 which screams dog or pass, even if we didn't already like this as a double digit live dog, and with each team performing so well the spot here is 6-1-1 ATS.
With a little larger sample size and using the same record requirements...the system still wins at a 57% clip ATS in database history and over 60% the past 10 seaons!

JOE RAINERI

Game: (385) Old Dominion at (386) UAB
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 4:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%

The Old Dominion Monarchs visit Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama on Saturday to play the UAB Blazers. Old Dominion fell to 1-5 on the season following its 31-17 loss to Marshall on Saturday. Old Dominion was hurt by quarterback sacks, as Marshall sacked Messiah deWeaver eight times. deWeaver threw for 100 yards and one touchdown and the Monarchs managed just 83 yards on the ground. The truth is, they are not very good on offense and their defense can't stop anybody.

UAB on the other hand, improved to 5-1 on the season with a 33-14 victory over UT San Antonio. Tyler Johnston III passed for 294 yards and a pair of touchdowns to lead the Blazers to the win. With the win, UAB moved into third place in the West Division of Conference-USA at 2-1 just a half game behind leaders Southern Mississippi and Louisiana Tech. This team can play defense and they can also put up some points. This will be their last game before headed to their bye week and I expect they will pour it on the Monarchs.
UAB is also 7-0 ATS in its last 7 October games
UAB is the much better team and is battling for first place in the Conference-USA West division. The Blazers have covered the number in 7 of the last 8 versus an opponent with a losing record and in 9 of the last 11 following a win ATS.
Old Dominion has failed to cover 9 of its last 12 C-USA games.
I had this number somewhere aroud -20 so the fact that we are at two touchdowns is great value as far as I'm concerned.
I'll be laying the points with the way better team here who will no doubt look to put their stamp on this game.
I'm betting UAB to cover this game with ease, expect a score around 38-14.

KEVIN DOLAN FOOTBALL PLAYS

Game: (355) BOISE STATE at (356) BYU
Date/Time: Oct 19 2019 10:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 50.5 (-108)

We're on the Under here on Saturday as the BYU Cougars welcome a return home after back to back losses on the road to South Florida and Toledo in recent weeks (three straight losses overall), but face a Boise State team in rampant form, fresh off a 59-37 beatdown of Hawaii last week and who remain undefeated on the season.
However, there's reason for optimism for the Cougars in this matchup as they possess a very good passing defense that should cause this front of end of Boise State some trouble on Saturday. BYU rank 22nd in the nation on opponent passing yards, holding opposing offenses to just 188.5 ypg through the air on average, and that should cause Bachmeier and the rest of this Broncos offense some issues moving the ball effectively through the air over in Utah.

On the flip side, Boise State have also shown a competent defense on the season so far, holding both UNLV and Florida State to an average of just 84 rushing ypg on the road, good for 9th in the country, so expect problems for both teams moving the ball effectively here on Saturday.
These two teams matchup extremely well and we expect a close, hard-fought encounter similar to what took place last year, when the Broncos edged out a 21-16 win over the Cougars. We're getting a few extra points of value based off Boise's huge win over Hawaii at home last week and we don't expect them to put up anywhere near that here on Saturday going on the road against a much better Cougars defense in a primetime night game.
The Under is 6-2 in the last 8 between these two teams, and with the Cougars badly needing a win if they're to remain bowl eligible, expect them to bring maximum effort here up in Provo in front of a raucous home crowd on Saturday.

Take the Under between Boise State and BYU for Week 8.

Strike sports

7 units Oregon -2.5

NFAC early card

UFC

UFC : DOMINICK REYES -160…($750) via Pinnacle & Bookmaker

UFC : YAIR RODRIGUEZ -105…($600) via 5dimes

UFC : DANIEL SPITZ +125…($600) via Pinnacle

UFC : DARREN STEWART +110…($600) via Pinnacle

UFC : GREG HARDY -285…($600) via Bookmaker

CFB

368) WASHINGTON +3…($1,000) – BIG MOVE via Pinnacle

317) DUKE +3…($750) via Pinnacle

349) KANSAS +21.5…($750) BetDsi at +22

398) VIRGINIA TECH +3.5…($750) via Pinnacle

360) UTAH -13.5…($750) Bookmaker at -13

395) TULANE +4.5…($750) via Pinnacle

377) TCU -3 (-125) – Buy 1/2 PT…($600) via BetOnline

319) GEORGIA TECH +18.5…($600) via 5dimes

Victor King (King Creole)

Pac 12 'AFTER DARK': College Football Saturday 3*** OVER THE TOTAL from King's Totals Team!

ARIZONA STATE / UTAH OVER

Buzz Kill said:

Victor King (King Creole)

Pac 12 'AFTER DARK': College Football Saturday 3*** OVER THE TOTAL from King's Totals Team!

ARIZONA STATE / UTAH OVER

Click to expand...

Thanks Buzz !!!