Week 8:Back in the Black

ofred · Oct 16, 2019

Finally had a breakout week, winning 12.4 units and now at YTD: 44-47, +3.05 units Utah game was only at a 2*, but had that one circled all week as my top play. However, I have been so off on the Oregon teams, second-guessed myself. Weekday game nibblers:

.5* Arkansas St. +6.5 These Sunbelt games in which the teams are fairly close in quality can be tough to win on the road. ASU's backup QB, Layne Hatcher, might be an improvement over starter Logan Bonner. Passed for 740 yards his last 2 games. Accurate and a very good decision-maker. ULL has the defensive advantage, but they really haven't faced too many good passing attacks this year. With Hatcher, ASU can also get the back door cover. Ark. St. off a bye while ULL off a big game with App. State. Good situational game for the Wolves.

.5* Syracuse +3.5 Part of this is Syracuse's past ability to win or cover easily vs. far superior teams- like Clemson and LSU. Pitt is not far superior, and has been inconsistent in recent years. Pitt blew 2 big leads to UCF and Duke, but pulled out wins late. Perhaps they have the mentality that they can do this whenever they want? Syracuse is better than their record although their main issue is the OL. If they make some adjustments here, they should be able to keep this game competitive and pull an upset. Might also get a couple of players back from injury. Pitt top tackler out 1H for targeting last game.

indiana · Oct 16, 2019

Fred..........well doen last week buddy, thank you.......back positive ........continued success with this weekend action.........indy

Knightrofins · Oct 16, 2019

keep it going!!

JETE · Oct 16, 2019

gl fred

ofred · Oct 16, 2019

No play tonight, but the South Alabama QB is one of the worst in the FBS. Troy QB questionable.

ofred · Oct 17, 2019

6* Navy -14 Do not like this USF team, and they seem to be a mirror of the ineptitude of HC Charlie Strong. They are capable of beating the weaker teams, and always have one good game thrown in there beating a decent team-ala BYU last week. Even though BYU out-yarded them by 100 yards. BYU is also coached by a highly criticized HC, and like USF, finds ways to lose. USF QB Barnett is out for the season, and new starter, Jordan McCloud is dealing with a shoulder injury and a hand injury in which he can barely grip the ball. The USF defense has some talent, but is not disciplined enough to handle Navy. This game reminds me of them getting rolled last season by Tulane, or Army's dismantling of Houston in their bowl game.

I mis-spoke a couple weeks ago saying Air Force was the cream of the service academies. Watching Navy play defense, and their improved passing game, makes me think THEY are the best of the academies. Other than a poor 2nd half @ Memphis (which has a much improved defense), Navy has played consistently well. Their D puts 7-8 in the box, and move and slant differently to confuse freshman/ inexperienced QBs like Jordan McCloud. USF also has a fairly inconsistent running game, looking good the last 2 weeks, but pretty bad the first 3 games. Navy at home and continues their special season.

ofred · Oct 17, 2019

4* Oklahoma St. -4 A nice situational game here. Okie State at home after a bye, while Baylor playing on the road, fifth game in 5 weeks. They are undefeated, but this is usually the time of year that the weaker of the undefeated lose their 1st game. Mike Gundy's team is playing for their season at 1-2 in the conference, while Baylor can actually afford a loss and still enjoy a nice 6-1 record. Complacency can happen right about where they are. I also like the 2 headed running attack of Okie State. Chuba Hubbard is now a Heisman possibility, and when he explodes through the line of scrimmage, he is often a threat to break off a big run. The Cowboys also are healthy on the OL after the bye week, while not having that vs. Texas Tech. Baylor has their own issues on the OL. Charlie Brewer is a playmaker for sure, but he often looks under duress, and the running game has not blossomed as expected. Baylor will definitely be a little more tired and bruised than OSU.

4* Oregon/ Washington- under 49.5 This game was at 50.5 earlier today, and I expect it'll keep dropping. Cold, wet day in Husky Stadium Saturday. The Ducks defense really is special. They don't have any weaknesses that I have seen. Dominated defensively their last 3 opponents, and held Auburn at bay for 3 quarters. Washington has had problems offensively when playing tougher defenses. They tend to get more conservative, and settle for FGs when in the red zone. I really think Oregon has a good chance to win this game, but UW will be determined at home. Their defense is also pretty hard to score on although they have a lot of new players there. I expect they will pressure Herbert and force the Ducks running game to show up (it's been mediocre). TE Jacob Breeland is out, one of Herbert's favorite targets and a Mackey Award possibility for the nation's top TE. His replacements are more of the run blocking type. Back to the Ducks' D: WR Aaron Fuller is easily the top target for QB Eason…but the Oregon secondary has been scary good, and I expect he'll have a hard time getting open or making big plays. Otherwise, they like to throw short and run often- therefore running clock. I expect a total more in the 30-40 range.

Kaboom · Oct 17, 2019

o fred said:
6* Navy -14 Do not like this USF team, and they seem to be a mirror of the ineptitude of HC Charlie Strong. They are capable of beating the weaker teams, and always have one good game thrown in there beating a decent team-ala BYU last week. Even though BYU out-yarded them by 100 yards. BYU is also coached by a highly criticized HC, and like USF, finds ways to lose. USF QB Barnett is out for the season, and new starter, Jordan McCloud is dealing with a shoulder injury and a hand injury in which he can barely grip the ball. The USF defense has some talent, but is not disciplined enough to handle Navy. This game reminds me of them getting rolled last season by Tulane, or Army's dismantling of Houston in their bowl game.

I mis-spoke a couple weeks ago saying Air Force was the cream of the service academies. Watching Navy play defense, and their improved passing game, makes me think THEY are the best of the academies. Other than a poor 2nd half @ Memphis (which has a much improved defense), Navy has played consistently well. Their D puts 7-8 in the box, and move and slant differently to confuse freshman/ inexperienced QBs like Jordan McCloud. USF also has a fairly inconsistent running game, looking good the last 2 weeks, but pretty bad the first 3 games. Navy at home and continues their special season.

My Twitter Top Play ....glad to see we are on the same .... BOL !!!

Kaboom · Oct 17, 2019

o fred said:
4* Oklahoma St. -4 A nice situational game here. Okie State at home after a bye, while Baylor playing on the road, fifth game in 5 weeks. They are undefeated, but this is usually the time of year that the weaker of the undefeated lose their 1st game. Mike Gundy's team is playing for their season at 1-2 in the conference, while Baylor can actually afford a loss and still enjoy a nice 6-1 record. Complacency can happen right about where they are. I also like the 2 headed running attack of Okie State. Chuba Hubbard is now a Heisman possibility, and when he explodes through the line of scrimmage, he is often a threat to break off a big run. The Cowboys also are healthy on the OL after the bye week, while not having that vs. Texas Tech. Baylor has their own issues on the OL. Charlie Brewer is a playmaker for sure, but he often looks under duress, and the running game has not blossomed as expected. Baylor will definitely be a little more tired and bruised than OSU.

4* Oregon/ Washington- under 49.5 This game was at 50.5 earlier today, and I expect it'll keep dropping. Cold, wet day in Husky Stadium Saturday. The Ducks defense really is special. They don't have any weaknesses that I have seen. Dominated defensively their last 3 opponents, and held Auburn at bay for 3 quarters. Washington has had problems offensively when playing tougher defenses. They tend to get more conservative, and settle for FGs when in the red zone. I really think Oregon has a good chance to win this game, but UW will be determined at home. Their defense is also pretty hard to score on although they have a lot of new players there. I expect they will pressure Herbert and force the Ducks running game to show up (it's been mediocre). TE Jacob Breeland is out, one of Herbert's favorite targets and a Mackey Award possibility for the nation's top TE. His replacements are more of the run blocking type. Back to the Ducks' D: WR Aaron Fuller is easily the top target for QB Eason…but the Oregon secondary has been scary good, and I expect he'll have a hard time getting open or making big plays. Otherwise, they like to throw short and run often- therefore running clock. I expect a total more in the 30-40 range.

On both of these already as well .... very similar cards .... let's cash em bro !!!

indiana · Oct 17, 2019

Fred......solid looking plays buddy.....on them with you.....sweep that card...….indy

ofred · Oct 17, 2019

indiana said:
Fred......solid looking plays buddy.....on them with you.....sweep that card...….indy

Thanks Indy. Got a few more.

1* Ole Miss +6 Texas A&M is not a better team under Jimbo. Statistically, they don't look good defensively or offensively. Yes, they have some garbage TDs vs. Bama and Auburn, but this is just an average SEC team, maybe even below average on the road at Ole Miss. After 2 physical games, both losses at home, there is a decent chance they fall flat here. Ole Miss is showing improvements defensively and with the use of 2 QBs that each have their strengths. I have to also admire the body language of this Ole Miss team even when behind in games. Losing on the road to Alabama and Mizzou is not unexpected, but this team hangs in there until the final whistle. Kellen Mond at times looks incredible, but he is maddeningly inconsistent, turns the ball over, almost trying to look too Manziel-like. His OL also makes him have to move almost every time he passes. Ole Miss gets the upset here or loses a tight game.

1* Cal -11 Part of this play is predicated on the play of Devon Modster, the Cal QB. I think he'll prove to be better than what we have seen so far. He came in mid-game vs. ASU and looked bad. Then had to face the very tough Duck D in Autzen the following week. But I remember him at UCLA a couple of years ago, and he was a decent QB, with poise and the ability to pass accurately. I like his demeanor and think the bye week will give him time to improve his game. Also, he faces a pathetic Beaver defense. Jake Luton, the OSU QB, looked like he almost quit 2H last week vs. Utah, throwing the ball away instead of hanging in there longer to complete the pass. His body language looked like a sulker. He also throws too often to WR Hodgins, and seems to look in his direction too many plays. Cal's very good DBs will negate much of what Hodgins can do, and with the Beavers weak OL, the running game and Luton's protection, could be compromised. Turnovers on the Beaver offense could be a factor. Also.. Utah won by 45 at OSU last week, but that's with them taking their foot off the gas 2H.

ofred · Oct 17, 2019

1* ODU +16.5 Sometimes you have to hold your nose and take a team like ODU. UAB has played a much weaker schedule than ODU, and so their stats are somewhat inflated. UTSA, Rice, Akron, South Alabama, Alabama St. and a very weak WKU offense. No wonder their defense is statistically strong. But this is a schedule of god-awful offenses that would make any D look good. ODU is 1-5, but HC Bobby Wilder got his team the last few years to play well late, and salvage many late season wins under similar circumstances. ODU has played Virginia, VT, WKU, Marshall on the road and ECU. They might be 4-2 or so playing UAB's schedule. ODU has played pretty well defensively and I expect they keep this game close throughout.

1* Maryland +6 Indiana is still a question mark for me. Yes, they beat up on UConn, Rutgers and Eastern Illinois, but they gave up 41 to an awful MSU offense and got dominated at home by Ohio St. Winning on the road at Maryland won't be a cakewalk. Maryland has been knocked around by some good teams and then got hammered by Purdue last week. I think Purdue was long overdue for a great performance. Now Maryland very well might be overdue. They have a very good running game, an experienced QB who is a mediocre passer(yet improved this season), but being at home, playing for a possible bowl game here, gives them extra incentive. Maryland's defense is much maligned for good reason, but I got a sense they play well here to save their season. Their schedule is brutal so they know this might be their one of few chances to win a game.

Cheddar · Oct 18, 2019

Love Navy

ofred · Oct 18, 2019

1* App. State TT over 21- 1H Except for last week when App. State had a defensive showdown with ULL, the Mountaineers have blasted out of the gate in first halves. HC Eliah Drinkwitz was critical of OC's very conservative game plan last week, running too often. I expect we'll see a more balanced, creative game plan here, and even if App. St. does run often, ULM is atrociously bad against the run. They are small up front, and get gouged often outside the tackles for big gains. QB Zac Thomas was 2018 Sunbelt offensive player of the year mostly because he is such a dynamic dual threat. I just can't see this ULM defense having any luck defending all of the offensive options the Mountaineers can throw at them. A little on the TT over 40.5 for the game too.

1* SMU -8.5 Lots of bettors on Temple this week getting the TD+ pt. spread…and yet it crossed the 7 to 8.5 A nice situational game for SMU, one of the most dangerous offenses of the Group of 5 teams. Temple playing 6th game in 6 weeks, and winning a controversial game last week vs. Memphis while also benefitting a lot from turnovers. SMU off a bye. And while Temple's defense is pretty good, it isn't what it used to be, and it might struggle to keep up the scoring with its anemic offense. SMU is well-coached on both sides of the ball, and while the defense is a bend not break type, it can limit Temple to some FGs and stalled drives. Going against the public dog here.

Hedge · Oct 18, 2019

GL on SMU with you

ofred · Oct 18, 2019

Hedge said:
GL on SMU with you

This line just seems to be begging for Temple money. And on that note, this play says the same:

.5 Utah -13.5 ASU is 5-1 and freshman Jayden Daniels is getting major press on what a phenomenal young QB he is. So why the huge spread? Why is Vegas begging for ASU money here? It's because ASU is a 5-1 paper tiger, while Utah is the real deal. Oregon State's offense had been playing well, scoring in bunches, and then last week(at home), Utah completely shut them down. One thing observers and OSU coaches noted was just how big, strong, fast and athletic Utah was on both sides of the ball. ASU lost to Colorado at home, got lucky vs. MSU, beat Sacramento St. by 12, beat Kent St….and a nice comeback last week vs. Wazzu. But Wazzu's defense sucks, and Utah's will be formidable at home. Utah's balanced offense will expose the ASU defense.

ofred · Oct 18, 2019

.6* San Jose St. +8.5 In the Mt. West you never know what crazy result might happen. And SD State has their usually tough defense. But San Jose State has really nice passing offense that will keep them in this game, or at least get the backdoor cover. Josh Love has been excellent at distributing the ball, and is not under the constant pressure from rushers as he was last season. SD State is a low scoring team even against weaker defenses, and this is just too many points for a team that runs often, but doesn't excel offensively at anything. The Spartans are at home, and this game is huge for their season. They have feasted on turnovers this season, and though you can't count on them, their defensive coaches have taught them how you can increase your chances of getting them.

.5* Akron +17.5 If Bowling Green can do it, so can Akron. No, not win the game- but keeping it close at home vs. a below average MAC team that has their own issues. Akron's staff and players know this might be their best chance for their only win, so the effort will be there.

.5* Miami/ Georgia Tech- under 45.5 Miami played outstanding defense last week holding Virginia to 9 points, and seems recommitted to playing defense with smarts and passion. I just don't see GT scoring more than 6 or 10 points here. Miami has OL issues and they will likely keep it on the ground a lot. They can grind it out over this GT defense which is much better against the pass anyways.

.4* Tulane +3.5 Memphis is still smarting over a blown call last week at Temple which might have cost them the game. Tulane's offense and defense are much improved this year, and even have a decent passing game. Memphis might be another team whose record is better than what they really are. QB Brady White has often had a great supporting cast, but he's not consistent and can turn the ball over at inopportune times.

.4* LSU/ MSU- under 62 The Bulldogs do not have a QB that will make their offense hum. Stevens, Shrader, whomever- they are backups at best. I think LSU might be a little disinterested here, but their defense is so loaded, they can keep MSU from scoring more than 10-14 points.

There is a jewel in one of these, but can't decide which one to elevate. Any thoughts appreciated.

ofred · Oct 18, 2019

Smallest play, but have to put some $ on it:

.3* Illinois +31 C'mon, Wisconsin has Ohio State next week. They are on the road and need to stay healthy. Illinois is bad, but not Rutgers bad, and they might get total vanilla from Wisconsin.

JohnnyMags · Oct 19, 2019

Good Luck Boss

ofred · Oct 19, 2019

Upping to 1* LSU/ Miss. St. -under 62 Really don't like these MSU QBs even against LSU backups. LSU goes conservative offensively with Auburn and Alabama on deck.