Mahomes is dinged up and the defense stinks again. The line looks very fishy almost begging for Chiefs action, tread lightly.
Gun to my head, I'd probably take KC but the past 2 weeks these teams are headed in different directions. Denver playing much better defense last couple of games and KC has not looked good at all. Houston did not punt a single time last week vs KC. KC only scored 7 points after the 1st quarter last week. Mahomes not being totally healthy and fully able to get out of the pocket and improvise has contributed greatly to the last 2 losses.
If it looks too good to be true, it usually is and this seems to fit the bill.
Gun to my head, I'd probably take KC but the past 2 weeks these teams are headed in different directions. Denver playing much better defense last couple of games and KC has not looked good at all. Houston did not punt a single time last week vs KC. KC only scored 7 points after the 1st quarter last week. Mahomes not being totally healthy and fully able to get out of the pocket and improvise has contributed greatly to the last 2 losses.
If it looks too good to be true, it usually is and this seems to fit the bill.
The game is similar to the Rams/Seahawks game a couple of weeks ago which was also a division game on a short week with the higher rated team [the Rams] coming off a loss to Jameis and The Bucaneers.
Rams opened -1.5 and moved to +2, probably due to sharp action on the Seahawks similar to this game.
Rams lost by 1 thanks to a missed FG [which screwed the Rams ML bettors like me] after significantly outgaining the Seahawks but kicking 5 FG's. If the Rams had made the chip shot, they would have won outright and covered the open and the closing lines.
I'm betting that there has been an over reaction to the Broncos recent wins against the Chargers and the Titans vs writing off the Chiefs in a division game following a loss to a good team but non division rival.
Summary
1. In a division game, discount the form from the preceding week.
2. Division games count for 2 non division wins.
Often the weaker team performs better than expected in division games and loses but covers, but that looks to be anticipated in this line due to recency bias.
Disclosure:
I've bet 1u on th Chiefs to cover this week
The Rams missed FG against the Seahawks screwed me
I had the Broncos as the last leg of a 5 leg 27x parlay when they lost to Uncle Rico after leading 17-3 with less than a minute to go in Q2, just before Joe Cools interception [I was kicking myself for only hedging 35% at the time]
Rams opened -1.5 and moved to +2, probably due to sharp action on the Seahawks similar to this game.
Rams lost by 1 thanks to a missed FG [which screwed the Rams ML bettors like me] after significantly outgaining the Seahawks but kicking 5 FG's. If the Rams had made the chip shot, they would have won outright and covered the open and the closing lines.
I'm betting that there has been an over reaction to the Broncos recent wins against the Chargers and the Titans vs writing off the Chiefs in a division game following a loss to a good team but non division rival.
Summary
1. In a division game, discount the form from the preceding week.
2. Division games count for 2 non division wins.
Often the weaker team performs better than expected in division games and loses but covers, but that looks to be anticipated in this line due to recency bias.
Disclosure:
I've bet 1u on th Chiefs to cover this week
The Rams missed FG against the Seahawks screwed me
I had the Broncos as the last leg of a 5 leg 27x parlay when they lost to Uncle Rico after leading 17-3 with less than a minute to go in Q2, just before Joe Cools interception [I was kicking myself for only hedging 35% at the time]
The Spring line for this game was -3 KC the net change in my power ratings over the course of the season is Denver +6 ...( Denver up 3 pts and KC is down 3 points ). So based off the spring line Denver should be favoured by 3.
Next Point the KC opened at -4 my Power rating says KC -2 ....When the Fav Open 2pts > than PR the Fav has a 33% win %.
Now this over inflated line has dropped to 3 with over 75% support the fav has a 38% win %.
Away Fav opens greater than PR and line goes down 25% win %
Home dog with the better defense getting points in Prime time.
Better rushing team getting points
Now consider this Short week for KC and then up into the Altitude of Mile high
Denver is the side for me and taking a bit of ML too boot
Next Point the KC opened at -4 my Power rating says KC -2 ....When the Fav Open 2pts > than PR the Fav has a 33% win %.
Now this over inflated line has dropped to 3 with over 75% support the fav has a 38% win %.
Away Fav opens greater than PR and line goes down 25% win %
Home dog with the better defense getting points in Prime time.
Better rushing team getting points
Now consider this Short week for KC and then up into the Altitude of Mile high
Denver is the side for me and taking a bit of ML too boot
This line of reasoning is why many people lose betting NFL games
[FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]Don't overthink this. This game reminds me of last weeks Saints/Jags game.
A top tier team vs. a 2nd tier team. A lot of love for the Jags who are just
not that good.
Déjà vu again here. When the playoffs roll around who do expect to be playing
Chiefs or Broncos? Yes the Chiefs D sucks but the Broncos O ain't much.
Broncos D is decent but Chiefs O ain't Tennesse.
I think the books are over reacting to Denver beating LAC and Tenn while KC
was losing to Indy and Hou.
To me the most important position is QB. Big mis-match here. Mahomes ranked # 1
Flacco # 24.
I don't usually put a lot of stock in coachs unless it's Belichick but Reid is an
offensive minded guy and Fangio is just another in a long line of clueless bastards
that Elway seems to be found of hiring and firing a year later.
I'm laying the 3 without hesitation.
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