Espn 6

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Word.
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17-19 -1.8 ytd

Reyes -170 over Weidman 1.7/1
I see Reyes as the better, more technical striker here. Weidman should grapple, but it saps his gas tank when he's forced to wrestle. Weidman is going up in weight - I'll take the younger, bigger, better striker with good TDD.

Rodriguez +100 over Stephens 1/1
Shouldn't see this one hit the mat. Pantera is a better, longer and more complex striker with more tools. Stephens tends to brawl if he's not landing early and I believe he'll be punished for it.

Winn -140 over Stewart 1.4/1
Winn is the MW DC - short (5'7"), incredible wrestling pedigree, pretty good power, looks like shit on the scale. Gameplan is pretty easy - undertook, push against the cage, land punches and knees on the non-undertook side, and look to drop elevation to finish the TD. That's the not so secretive secret to the AKA guys' success over the years (DC, Cain, Khabib).

Bermudez -140 over Rosa 1.4/1
I think this fight will end up being a great scramble-fest on the mat, and I think that bodes well for Bermudez, who has some very slick grappling transitions.

Bochniak -140 Woodson 1.4/1
I like Bochniak's activity in this fight. I think he just scores more over the course of 15 minutes. He's been in there and fought it close with some really tough guys (Zabit, Dawodu). Woodson was losing his DWTNCS fight until his opponent gassed and got sloppy.

Good luck, dip shits.

 

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I'm on Woodson but with you on the rest. The Winn fight is 50/50 in my opinion.
 

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Handicapper
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Winn really surprised me at UFC Greenville in his UFC debut in that he didn’t try any take downs at all, he actually stood right in front of Eric Spicely and took some vicious knees. He lost a round because of it, and that fight was closer than it should’ve been. Maybe he’s learned from it and actually has a game plan this time out as there’s no doubt he’s gotta ground game and is very strong. I like him in this spot too thinking he showcases his true talent...
 

Word.
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Winn really surprised me at UFC Greenville in his UFC debut in that he didn’t try any take downs at all, he actually stood right in front of Eric Spicely and took some vicious knees. He lost a round because of it, and that fight was closer than it should’ve been. Maybe he’s learned from it and actually has a game plan this time out as there’s no doubt he’s gotta ground game and is very strong. I like him in this spot too thinking he showcases his true talent...

I honestly think Winn was a bit afraid ('respectful' is probably a better word) of Spicely's BJJ. That's definitely Spicely's best area. So I'm sure Winn was making his debut thinking, "I'm fighting a really good BJJ guy with not very great hands, I'll try to get a highlight-reel KO on my debut." And his gameplan and fight camp was probably never to take Spicely down. Stewart is basically the opposite. His worst area is probably his BJJ.
 

Word.
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This card is on Friday (tomorrow), just for everyone who likes to wait for the last minute to make wagers.
 

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