Mistaflava's College Football Week 8 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2019 Mistaflava CFB Record: 57-51-2 ATS (-5.50 Units)

2019 Mistaflava CFB *Big Plays*: 3-2 ATS (-2.50.Units)


Took a big 50 unit hit last week after the loss on Texas A&M +17.5 as my PLAY OF THE YEAR but it's time to bounce back. Been so up and down this season it's been a bit frustrating compared to success in the NFL but I'll be using one of my top systems this week and see if we can get some success there.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK!

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Wednesday, October 16




South Alabama Jaguars +17 (10 Units)

I will either regret this one really fast or we will know the University of South Alabama is here to play like they have been the last two visits to Troy. They came here in 2017 as a +16 point road underdog and won 19-8. They came here in 2015 as a +7 point road underdog and won 24-18. This year it seems Steve Campbell has his team overachieving. If you are a degenerate college football bettor you were definitely on the South Alabama-Georgia Southern game almost two weeks ago now where the Jaguars only had 1 first down at some point in the 4th Quarter and still found a way to almost win the game. They should have won the game but their kicker let them down in OT. South Alabama's offense has been a train wreck for the most part of this season and they come into this game averaging only 12.3 points per game but still scored 17 against a Georgia Southern D that is pretty damn good. They also average 5.0 yards per play in their last three games which is more than Troy's offense (4.8) during that same time span. The Jaguars love to run the ball and have run it effectively (4.0 yards per carry) the last three games but they can also throw it downfield. QB Cephus Johnson has completed 52.6% of his passes the last three games but averages 6.9 yards per pass attempt and has throw only 1 interception during that time span (he has 5 total on the season) and has a QB Rating of 118.3 in those games. Troy's defense is a mess and has allowed 33 points per game their last three games on 312 passing yards, 9.9 yards per pass attempt and opponents have completed 63.2% of their passes for a QB Rating of 167.4 in those games. Yikes! What I really like about South Bama is they are not all that efficient on offense but they do have 8 starters back from one year ago, they've covered two straight spreads, they average only 4.7 penalties per game their last three games, they've turned the ball over only 2 times total in their last three games and...they have won their last two games at Troy.

The Troy Trojans are not even a shell of what they used to be or what we're used to seeing (10+ win seasons in 2016, 2017 and 2018). Right now the Trojans sit at 2-3 SU on the season and have covered the spread in one game. That lone ATS spread cover was against Akron who are 0-6 ATS on the season. One of the reasons for the demise of this team if you can call it that is a new coaching staff as first time head coach Chip Lindsey who comes over from Auburn (offensive coordinator) and who has yet to really figure things out. Alright so there is no sugar coating how bad the South Alabama defense has been this year and that was expected with only 5 starters back but this unit is a bit underrated. They have allowed 28.3 points per game their last three games and have allowed 28.3 points per game on 444.0 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. But like I was mentioning earlier, Troy's offense is missing something and even though they average 29.3 points per game their last three games they also average only 4.8 yards per play. A sure sign of an offense still trying to learn a new system. That's less than South Alabama's offense is averaging the last three games. What's weird is that South Alabama's run defense has been very good on the road (3.7 yards per carry only) but not so good at home or in the last three games overall. Troy for some reason run the ball a lot more away from home than they do at home where they've run 28.5 times per game this season for only 138 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. The offense has still been explosive with QB Kaleb Barker who has 14 touchdown passes this season and a QB Rating of 147.8 on the year but he was hurt last game and I'm not sure how much he has recovered from that leg injury. Regardless he should be able to make some big chunk yardage plays against a South Bama defense that allows 10.4 yards per pass attempt on the road this season. Troy is only 1-2 at home this season and one of the big reasons is because their QB has been sacked 9 times in those three home games versus Campbell, Southern Miss and Arkansas State. Here is a big reason I'm taking South Alabama. In road games at Nebraska, UAB and ULM, they have come up with 3 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries and 5 sacks. I like them to make a few plays in this game.

Okay so we already know South Alabama has won their last two games at Troy straight up as a road underdog but what people still underestimate is the fact that the Jaguars lost to Troy at home by 21 last season yet this season's team is at least a touchdown better than the team in 2018. They just are, even though it has yet to show in the win column. The road team has won the last four meetings and when the Jaguars won in 2017 they were also coming off a bye week. We don't know how Chad Lindsey is off BYE weeks because he's a first time head coach at Troy. What we do know is that these two schools are a combined 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 Sun Belt Conference games but Troy has a nasty history of being terrible in these games and it shows in their 2-9-1 ATS record in their last 12 home games versus a team with a losing record on the road. The Trojans are also 2-7 ATS in their last nine games off a bye week, 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and they have a losing record on the season. I think Vegas forgot about that. They just don't have the defense to cover these big spreads and again their only spread cover this season came against Akron who have yet to cover a spread all year. South Alabama loves playing at Troy. I'll follow that trend in this rivalry game and call for South Alabama to give Troy all they can handle in the "Battle for the Belt".

Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.


Troy 30, South Alabama 27





more to come...

I'm sure you'll turn it around mista flava! Rock solid cappa

I need to learn to stay away from these degenerate games in college! On that note...



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Thursday, October 17



Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns -6 (10 Units)

Most of us got to see the Appalachian State-Louisiana Lafayette game last Wednesday. I was on the Mountaineers and I was on them because they were playing for a New Year's Six Bowl Game and that was my main reason. What we saw last week was not the real Louisiana Lafayette team and not even a shell of it. Actually their defense played well and allowed only 17 points to a very explosive offense but the offense was dormant. That won't be the case here. This is a Lafayette offense that was held to 7 points last week but that averages 492.3 total yards of offense per game on 38.2 points per game and 7.2 yards per play. Now please tell me how Arkansas State's defense that is allowing 537.3 total yards of offense per game on 38.7 points per game and 6.5 yards per play is going to stop them? ULL runs for 282.2 per game on 6.9 yards per carry and after being bottled up they'll enjoy this Arkansas State defense that is allowing 219.7 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry this season. In the air the Red Wolves have allowed big plays all season (7.9 yards per pass attempt) and opposing QB's have an average QB Rating of 139.8 on the season. Expect QB Levi Lewis and RBs Raymond Calais and Elijah Mitchell to have monster games.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves got their coach back over a month ago now and up until last week's trip to Georgia State they had been winning games. They were outyarded by a horrendous 301 total yards in that game and were also outyarded against Southern Illinois in their last home game and Georgia the game before that. I thought they looked good at Troy in a 50-43 win but if you watched Troy play tonight you'll know they are nothing special at all. What you need to know about ULL's defense in this one is that in their away games this season they have allowed only 24.5 points per game (Mississippi State, Ohio and Georgia Southern) and have allowed only 316 total yards of offense on 4.7 yards per play. This is significantly better than Arkansas State's defense in so many ways including allowing only 159 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry. If you want to stop Arkansas State however you need to stop their air attack because they have thrown the ball 41.5 times per home game but they have allowed 7 sacks in those games and turned the ball over 3 times. ULL will love this. Their three away opponents this season completed only 48% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt and opposing QB's have an average QB Rating of only 95.4 in those games. Wow! Add the 3 fumble recoveries and 5 interceptions and this defense will play well.

The last time the game was played in Jonesboro, ULL lost 47-3 a few years ago. That won't happen again and a lot of these guys have not forgotten about it despite grabbing revenge at home in 2018. The Ragin Cajuns are 4-0 ATS in road games coming into this game and they are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six after a straight up loss under Billy Napier. Despite the loss last week they are still 7-3 ATS in Sun Belt Conference play. Arkansas State is 5-0 ATS in their last five Thursday Night Games but they are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and have covered the spread only 3 of the last 11 games in this series. I'm going with ULL in a nice bounce back spot after last week. They won't go easy.

Trend of the Game: Louisiana Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a straight up loss.


Louisiana Lafayette 43, Arkansas State 26




more to come...

Mr. Flava......BOL with all your early week action buddy...…...indy

appreciate your work, time, & generosity, MistaFlava.

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Stanford Cardinal -3.5 (10 Units)





more to come...

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Friday, October 18




Marshall Thundering Herd +4.5 (10 Units)

The world seems to be on Florida Atlantic in this matchup of the two top teams in Conference USA East (on paper anyways). That seems a bit off to me considering Marshall have either won or lost by 5 or less in their 3 lifetime visits to Boca Raton. Marshall absolutely destroyed the Owls at home last year and came up short in a huge comeback bid here in 2017 when they roared back from a 16-3 halftime deficit to lose 30-25 (first ever loss to FAU). I think this line is based on the fact that Marshall lost by 11 at Middle Tennessee in their last road game but they won the yardage battle by 177 total yards in that game. Tells you something. But listen I get it. Marshall are 0-4 ATS in their last four games and haven’t covered a spread since the Boise State game in early September. The betting public is skeptical about this.

On the ground I think Marshall has a dominating performance even if Florida Atlantic is allowing only 60.0 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry in their last three games. Overall this season the Owls rank #62 in the Nation against the run and #109 against the pass. Marshall QB Isaiah Green has not been great but he does have 8 touchdown passes on the season and is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The FAU secondary has been good the last three games but has allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The big play opportunities for Marshall will be there. On the flip side FAU has a prolific offense that scored 21 points at Ohio State earlier this season and that averages 38.3 points per game and 476.7 total yards per game on 6.6 yards per play in their last three games. That’s impressive. Having said, Marshall’s defense is “opportunistic” to say the least. They allow big yards in the air but they also have 12 QB sacks in their last three games and their run defense has actually been solid allowing only 3.6 yards per carry the last three games. What has me really intrigued in Marshall here is discipline. Something Lane Kiffin run teams have never had and FAU is no different. The Owls have 30 penalties in their last three games and it has cost them 249 total yards (83.0 per game). Marshall has only 16 penalties in their last three games. The Thundering Herd D is also due to come up with a few turnovers about as much as FAU is due to turn the ball over (Law of CFB averages).

This should be a great game and we get an early start in Boca Raton. Marshall is 5-1 SU lifetime against Florida Atlantic with their only loss coming the last time they played here. The line has slowly been dropping in the favor of Marshall and I find that kind of bizarre. Tells me some big wagers are coming in on the Thundering Herd who are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Friday Night. On the flip side of that Florida Atlantic is 0-6 ATS in their last six games played on a Friday. I think this is a statement game for Marshall and I'm taking the Thundering Herd to win straight up.

Trend of the Game: Marshall is 5-1 SU lifetime versus Florida Atlantic.


Marshall 35, Florida Atlantic 28





Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5 (10 Units)

This is a great spot to back Syracuse if you’re into the “bounce back” theories but if you saw the Orangemen against NC State last week and how horrendous their offensive line looked, there is no chance you are backing them here. Not against this Panthers defense. Cuse was outyarded by 425 yards in a blowout home loss to Clemson and they were outyarded in their 52-33 home win over Western Michigan as well. The loss at NC State last week was a brutal one. Pitt on the other hand have only been underdogs on the road this season losing a close one at Penn State (won the yardage battle by 7) and then beating Duke two weeks ago while outyarding them by 49 total yards. Pat Narduzzi is only 2-5 coming off a BYE Week but this is his best Pitt team maybe ever.

How is Syracuse going to protect QB Tommy Devito in this game? He’s put up some good numbers this season (12 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions) but he has been sacked 11 times in his last three games and NC State allowed this Syracuse offense to do virtually nothing last week and I mean nothing until the final drive. So someone please tell me how Devito and this horrendous and inexperienced offensive line are going to do against Blittzburgh and the defense of Randy Bates. The Panthers have 15 QB Sacks in their last three games and opponents are averaging only 83.7 rushing yards per game on only 2.3 yards per carry. The last three QB’s they have faced have completed only 48.3% of their passes for 5.3 yards per pass attempt and in those games the Panthers have 4 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries. This is a much bigger nightmare for the Orange than the NC State game. Pitt ranks #16 in the Country against the run and Syracuse showed zero ability to run the ball last week so this could get really ugly. NC State did not have an offense, Pittsburgh does. The Panthers average 28.3 points per game in their last three games (mostly because of their defense). As long as the Panthers can stay out of their own way (7 turnovers in the last three games) they should be able to expose one of the worst secondaries in college football. The Orange have allowed 276.8 passing yards per game this season (#111 in the Nation) and although the numbers don’t show it that’s because their last three opponents have been Western Michigan, Holy Cross and NC State. The Pitt offense will feed off it’s defense and score on this indoor surface. Narduzzi has at least 4 spread covers versus ACC opponents in his 4 seasons here so with Pitt coming in with a 1-1 ATS record versus ACC opponents this season, I expect this to be #2.

History is not on Syracuse’s side here as they are 3-14 SU lifetime versus Pitt. Going into their meeting in 2018 the favorite had won 15 straight games in this series but the Panthers changed that last year with a 44-37 home win as a +3.5 point home underdog. This line is funny like that and almost replicating the line we saw last year. Difference is this Syracuse team is nowhere near as good as the 2018 version. The Panthers come into this game 6-0 ATS in their last six games played in October and they are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 ACC Conference Games. Syracuse on the other hand have been very good in Friday Night Games (4-0 ATS in their last four) but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games coming off a straight up loss. Pitt is 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and I'm going with another big win.

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.


Pittsburgh 27, Syracuse 12





Ohio State Buckeyes -27 (10 Units)

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the #1 team in the Country (in all our eyes) but the critics continue to complain that they haven’t faced anyone yet? While that maybe true and they do have Wisconsin next week in one of the biggest games in college football all season, I just don’t think a team like this is into letdowns. Northwestern has been dreadful so far in 2019 and in their last three games they have scored only 35 total points and have not scored more than 15 points. That won’t change in this game. So unless you see the Wildcats allowing only 20-25 points in this game there is no reason to bet against Ohio State regardless of what lies ahead for them. They need style points to convince the AP voters that they are better than their current #4 spot and they won’t take their foot off the gas pedal. Take away their season opening 45-21 win over Florida Atlantic and you will see that Ohio State has won every game since by an average of 43.4 points per game. MY GOD! So again I ask why would that change tonight? Because Northwestern is tough and covered their last two games against Nebraska and Wisconsin? Different scenarios. This game has blowout written all over it.

So I just mentioned that the Buckeyes have won their last five games by an average of 43.4 points per game and they come into this game with the #7 ranked total yards offense, the #3 rushing offense and the #4 points scored offense. This team doesn’t let up and they just keep scoring. I guess the odds for this one are the way they are because Northwestern’s strength is their defense. The Wildcats come into this game with the #27 total yards defense, the #14 passing yards defense, the #54 rushing yards defense and the #30 points allowed defense. All great stuff but 54[SUP]th[/SUP] in the Nation against the run is not going to cut it against this Buckeyes offense. You also have to consider that QB Justin Fields is up for the Heisman Trophy and one of the front runners so slowing down won’t be an option. I think Ohio State brings everything they have in this one. On top of that this Ohio State defense should be giving their offense good field position all night. The Bucks D has allowed less than 10 points in three of their last five games and have not allowed more than 10 points in any game aside from their Week 1 win over FAU. I will ask again, how does Northwestern score? They average only 11.8 points per game their last three games and average only 271.3 total yards of offense and 3.5 yards per play in those games. The Buckeyes D has 9 turnovers in their last three games and they are coming off a BYE Week. Also add in the 13 sacks and the 4.3 yards per pass attempt they allow in the air and again I don’t see Northwestern scoring more than 3 points in this game. This offense has turned the ball over 7 times their last three games and allowed 8 sacks and have to play a well rested Ohio State defense. NO CHANCE.

Those who are backing Northwestern will back them because the Wildcats covered the spread on the road in their last two games both versus Big Ten conference opponents. Neither opponent is comparable to Ohio State. Wisconsin always play down to the level of their opponents so no surprise there. Those same people will also look at the fact that the last time here Ohio State won by only 10 (2013) but prior to that they won by 35+ in 2008 and 2006 so that’s invalid. Ohio State has covered the spread in 5 straight Big Ten Conference games, they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after winning a game by 20+ points the previous time out (no letup scenario) and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday Night Games. Things you need to know about NW is they have been very good ATS wise off losses and in Conference play but they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a winning record away from home like Ohio State has. The Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and that also means Ohio State is 6-1 ATS in thsoe last seven meetings. Buckeyes big in this one.

Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday Night Games.


Ohio State 62, Northwestern 3





UNLV Rebels +15 (10 Units)

Well well well. The UNLV Rebels are coming off a shock 34-10 win over Vanderbilt last week (on the road) as a +16.5 point underdog in that game. In the NFL that would mean fade to the bank because anytime a team has covered a spread by 28+ points in a game they have come out the next time and missed the spread something like 30 times in a row. In college it’s hit or miss. Tony Sanchez does know a thing or two about playing Fresno State. Sure the Rebels got blown out of the water last season but Fresno State was ranked #20 at the time. In 2016 Sanchez and the Rebels beat Fresno State at home and in 2017 they went to Fresno as a +21 point underdog and won 26-16. Fresno are coming off an embarrassing 43-24 loss at Air Force and the narrative is that they will bounce back in this game but the Bulldogs have NOT covered a spread since their season opener at USC going 0-3-1 ATS since. I would tread lightly on this Fresno State squad.

I’m not sure if this is a good or bad thing but UNLV get their starting QB back tonight as Armani Rogers makes his return after missing two games. QB Kenyon Oblad was pretty good in his absence against Vanderbilt but the real strength of this UNLV team is their running game as they rank #52 in the Nation coming into this game and Rogers is a quarterback that can really hurt teams with his feet. Fresno State has allowed 152.3 rushing yards per game their last three games and have allowed 4.2 yards per carry. Rogers is second on the team is rushing behind RB Charles Williams who has gone off for 598 rushing yards on 6.6 yards per carry and 7 rushing touchdowns in 2019. That was unexpected to say the least. My issue with the Fresno defense is they don’t have a pass rush (3 sacks in last three games) and the big problem for Rogers this season has been protection (UNLV QB’s sacked 8 times in last three games). The Rebels defense looks bad on paper because they have allowed 7.0 yards per play their last three games but they came into this season with pretty high expectations of being better than the last few seasons. Lucky for them the run is pretty much the only area of defense they struggle and Fresno likes to throw and run equally. On the ground the Rebels defense has been torched for 240.7 rushing yards per game on 7.4 yards per carry in their last three but in the air their last three opponents have completed only 48.3% of their passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Fresno’s offense has just not been good or effective enough this season and they have the 89[SUP]th[/SUP] ranked running game in the Nation.

I’m going with the rare underdog to cover the spread but not win straight up. When I pick underdogs it’s usually because I think they can win. UNLV can win this and Tony Sanchez did it in 2016 and 2017 but I think Fresno wins but it will be close. UNLV has a decent history of playing games on Friday Nights where they have gone 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 and what people don't know about this team is that they are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games under coach Sanchez. Fresno State is a very good home team which makes it all that more weird that they have struggled so much this season. The Bulldogs are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss. UNLV keeps this close and comes in very confident.

Trend of the Game: UNLV is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 Friday Night Games.


Fresno State 34, UNLV 31






more to come...

M/F, nice write-ups, per usual!

Considering you’re predicting the final score of the Pitt game at 27-12, why wouldn’t you play under 52.5? Seems like a ton of value, according to your model.

Thanks and GL this weekend.

:toast:

Skeeter123 said:

M/F, nice write-ups, per usual!

Considering you’re predicting the final score of the Pitt game at 27-12, why wouldn’t you play under 52.5? Seems like a ton of value, according to your model.

Thanks and GL this weekend.

:toast:

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Your theory is not wrong and the score is pretty close right now but I'm just not a huge fan of totals in college football. It was the right call tonight though unless Cuse somehow comes back and ties this game. Sacks galore that's for sure. Good luck this weekend!

Model for Ohio st well on its way. Nice

MistaFlava said:

Your theory is not wrong and the score is pretty close right now but I'm just not a huge fan of totals in college football. It was the right call tonight though unless Cuse somehow comes back and ties this game. Sacks galore that's for sure. Good luck this weekend!

Click to expand...

College football can be really frustrating to watch sometimes…Syracuse had a fourth and 25 with about seven minutes left and Pitt committed a pass interference that allowed Syracuse to pull within seven. Obviously Pitt held on but man could’ve been one that got away.

Very nice mf!

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Saturday, October 19




Clemson Tigers -24 (10 Units)

After weeks of looking good it's finally time to stay away from Louisville in this one. This could be that kind of "Statement" making week for the TOP 4 teams in the Country as we saw with Ohio State last night. Clemson will likely be the next ones in the mood. The Tigers came out of their bye week last week a whole new ball club and their 45-14 home win over Florida State was one of many statements they will try to make from now until December. The worst game Clemson played was at North Carolina where they almost lost but in all their other games they have outyarded all their other opponents by at least 100 yards and most by 300+ yards. Louisville have won two straight coming and yes they are a brand new team under Scott Satterfield but after the 77-16 loss in this matchup one year ago, I'm not sure any of the remaining players on the Cardinals even want to play this game.

Speaking of yards and how Clemson has a tendency to win the yardage battle by a good 300+ yards over their opponents, would you not think the fact that Louisville has allowed 98 points in their last two games be a problem? How about the fact that they have allowed 584.3 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play in their last three games? Could be a problem as Clemson average 39.3 points per game in their last three on 449.7 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play. Louisville can't stop the run (214.7 rushing yards per game on 4.9 per carry in their last three), Clemson averages 226.7 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry in their last three. QB Trevor Lawrence = QB Rating of 144.4 in his last three games with only 2 sacks and only 2 interceptions while averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Louisville secondary = HORRENDOUS. Their last three QB opponents have an average QB Rating of 160.5 and they allow 369.7 passing yards per game on 9.0 yards per pass attempt. This will be chunk play after chunk play for Clemson. Can Louisville keep up or even score any points? Maybe. Their QB's are all hurt as "Puma" Pass is done for the year and standout starter Malik Cunnigham was hurt last week but will "give it a go" in this game. Give it a go probably won't cut it against a Clemson defense who's last three opponents have completed only 49.4% of their passes for only 119 passing yards on 4.4 yards per pass attempt with an average QB Rating of only 88.8 (tremendous in college). They have 8 sacks, 4 interceptions and 1 fumble recover as a unit in those games. Overall they have allowed 4.2 yards per play in their last three. Louisville doesn't turn the ball over much on offense but the laws of college football averages have it that they are due for a 3-4 turnover type game against this defense.

Beatdowns all around is what we have seen the last two seasons in this matchup and I'm not sure Scott Satterfield is ready for this, as good as I think he is as a head coach. There is no letting up for the top teams in college football right now and Louisville is just a mess on defense. Throw out the UNC game because that was a real weird one and that wasn't Clemson football. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games coming into this game and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a winning record at home (Louisville is 2-1). The Tigers have covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 ACC Conference games and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 40+ points (foot on the gas mentality). LOUISVILLE IS 1-8 ATS in their last nine ACC Conference games and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games versus a team with a winning road record. I'm fading all the way, this is statement time for the big boys and Louisville is getting clobbered on defense.

Trend of the Game: Clemson is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 ACC Conference games.


Clemson 48, Louisville 13





South Carolina Gamecocks +5.5 (10 Units)

There are two things anyone who has played high level or professional sports. 1) Letdowns are a real thing and both these teams are due for letdowns but of two very different kinds. 2) Momentum and confidence are also a very real thing and right now South Carolina has both. Think of it. Florida went into last weeks game at LSU like it was their BCS Championship Game and they lost. By 14 points. That's deflating. I say that because they lost the yardage battle by only 54 total yards and still lost by 14 points. What's the motivation here? It's a big time letdown spot. South Carolina on the other hand are coming off the biggest upset in college football this season with a 20-17 win at Georgia last week knocking the Bulldogs out of the playoffs. SC has not forgotten last year's 35-31 loss in the Swamp in a game they led and should have won. Muschamp gets another shot here and bettors BEWARE!

The two offenses in this game don't really compare because the Gators like to move fast, they like big chunk plays and they like to strike fast and the Gamecocks are the opposite and average only 4.6 yards per play in their last three games (Gators average 5.9 yards per play in those games). Having said that this prolific Gators offense who look completely different with QB Kyle Trask running the show will have to play against a tremendous Gamecocks defense that has allowed only 24 points total in their last two games both against SEC opponents (Kentucky and Georgia). They are allowing only 367 total yards in their last three games (includes Missouri game) and 4.5 yards per play in those games. Florida's defense on the other hand is allowing 350.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three games but allowing a whopping 6.3 yards per play. SC is not afraid to run the ball (average 35.3 carries per game in their last three games) and that could really be a problem for a Gators defense that is tired, playing on the road for the second straight week and allowing 5.1 yards per carry in their last three games. No matter how well Trask has played he has still taken 9 sacks in his last three games and as a team the Gators have turned the ball over 5 times in those games. The Gamecocks defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 50.4% of their passes for 5.2 yards per pass attempt and they have 9 sacks of their own and have forced a whopping 8 turnovers (5 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries). The Gators (and their backers) will be surprised by how good this Gamecocks defense is.

South Carolina has won 5 of the last 9 meetings in this series (Will Muschamp is only 1-2) but like I said earlier, the Gamecocks have momentum, they have confidance and they have not forgotten about last year's meeting in the Swamp where they were leading 31-14 late into the 3rd Quarter and eventually lost 35-31. That's still on their minds. I talked about how Florida rebounds from losses and it's not good. They are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine games coming off a straight up loss. They have to take on a South Carolina team that is now 5-1 ATS in their last six SEC Conference games and that is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record on the season. The Gators are only 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I'm calling for Will Muschamp to win his second game after his former team and the Gamecocks stun the college football world two weeks in a row.

Trend of the Game: South Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last six SEC Conference games.


South Carolina 27, Florida 13





Arkansas Razorbacks +19.5 (10 Units)

The Auburn Tigers are coming off a bye week btu the real question for me is how much of that BYE week was spent preparing for the massive game at LSU next week? It had to be a good chunk so the Tigers just have to breeze by in this one and they can start turning their full attention to the game of their season. Arkansas is a complete train wreck that is now 4-14 under Head Coach Chad Morris but I have to say Morris, who came over from SMU, has his guys competing in almost every single game this season. Their losses have been by 14 at Ole Miss, by 7 at home against San Jose State (who turned out to be a pretty good football team) and by only 4 points against Texas A&M and only 4 points at Kentucky.

I want someon to explain to me right now how they expect this Auburn team to cover this kind of spread on the road in a game where they probably don't care but more importantly in a game where their defense has allowed 22.3 points per game in their last three games and allowed 374.3 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play in those games? That is not good defense. It's just not. You might be a bit surprised by this but Arkansas comes into this game averaging 23.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on an impressive 396 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. Auburn's offense is averaging 6.1 yards per play in their last three games if you want to gauge. The Auburn defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 60.5% of their passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt in those games and their last three QB opponents have averaged a QB Rating of 138.1 in those games. This is by far the best offense Arkansas has had in 3-4 seasons and they have scored 20+ in four straight games coming into this. You might be surprised to hear this but Arkansas went 3-1 ATS as a home underog in 2018 and now they get their first such game of 2019. The Auburn offense is good and they should score some points but they also turn the ball over a crazy 2.3 times per game in their last three games which totals out to 4 lost fumbles and 3 interceptions while also taking 8.7 penalties per game which has cost them 60.3 penalty yards per game. This is not good. I really like Arkansas to run the ball well in this game with RB Rakeem Boyd who is already at 617 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns on 5.8 yards per carry. Running might not be effective against Auburn but Boyd is a handful. I like Arkansas to score enough in this one to cover (and possibly win?).

Take one look at their meeting in 2018 and you will see that somehow Arkansas won the yardage battle 290-225 but lost the ame 34-3 against the #9 Auburn Tigers. This year they are much better than they were a year ago and they are starting to find thier stride making them dangerous as such a huge home underdog against a team looking ahead. Is this the big win Chad Morris has been looking for for two years? I want to call for it because Auburn has ALL EYES ON LSU but it will take a tremendous all around performance. Auburn usually takes care of business against teams with a losing record but the Razorbacks as a home underdog with Morris as the Head Coach has been a dangerous thing. They almost beat Ole MIss and LSU here one year ago and are so much better this season. Arkansas is actually 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games versus a team with a winning road record on the season (Auburn is 2-0 if you count Oregno win). The Home Team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and I am calling for Arkansas to WIN STRAIGHT UP. Sounds crazy but it's possible.

Trend of the Game: Arkansas is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 Home Games versus teams with a winning road record.


Arkansas 33, Auburn 32





Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5 (10 Units)

I was on the Red Raiders wo weeks ago when the beat Oklahoma State at home by 10 as a +9.5 point home underdog and I was on them against last week at Baylor where they were a +10.5 point dog and lost 33-30 in a thriller. The oddsmakers obviously don't respect this team and don't think they can hang with some of the big boys in the Big 12 (I guess Iowa State is considered a big boy now). This is crazy. When you consider that Texas Tech is 7-2 SU in their last nine games hosting Iowa State and when you consider that they are 3-0 ATS at home this season, the play looks too good to pass up. Iowa State are 4-2 ATS on the season but their only real road game was at Baylor and they lost 23-21 at the end of September. Don't get me wrong Iowa State have been great and only once this season have they been outyarded in a game (vs Baylor and by 6 total yards) but I just think Texas Tech is playing well enough to win this.

These two offenses are rolling in the last three games as they average 36 points per game (Iowa State) and 30.3 points per game (Texas Tech) while averaging 404.3 total yards and 470 total yards respectively per game in those games and 5.9 yards per play and 6.2 yards per play (again respectively). I guess the only concern would be Texas Tech's defense which has been torched in their last three games and allowed some massive yardage but my counter to that is teams who can run the ball have shredded them and teams who can't run the ball have not. Iowa State has the #62 ranked rushing attack in the Country so the fact that Texas Tech allows 198.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry is almost not relevant. The Cyclones do love to throw the ball and have the #12 ranked passing attack in the Nation coming into this game. For as much as Texas Tech has allowed big plays on defense in the air they have also made some huge plays and are going to come hard at Cyclones QB Brock Purdy who has been fantastic this season (11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions). Purdy has had protection issues and has been sacked 7 times in his last three starts. The Red Raiders are coming. This high risk, high reward defense has 10 sacks in their last three games and they have an incredible 7 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries in those games. Don't forget Purdy had 7 INT's one year ago and he's due for a couple more after throwing 2 in his last three games. The Iowa State defense has been solid but in the air their last three opponents have completed 66% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt and an average QB Rating of 140.7. TT QB Jett Duffey has been great in relief of Alan Bowman with a QB Rating of 147.6 and the ability to throw and run all over opponents. I think he has another great game.

We all saw an incredible game between these two schools one year ago in Ames, Iowa. The Texas Tech Red Raiders led that game at Halftime but an incredible back and forth 2nd half (3 lead changes) eventually was their demise and they lost 40-31. With 13 returning starters this group has not forgotten that they can hang with Matt Campbell and his guys. I went back and looked at some records in games where Iowa won big (they beat West Virginia 38-14 on the road last week) and the Cyclones are only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a win of 20+ points. Wow! Texas Tech is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 home games. I really like what Matt Wells is doing with this group and they have shown in the last two weeks (75 points scored total) that they have the fire power to hang with most of the teams in the Big 12 not named Oklahoma (lost 55-16). I'm not sure Texas Tech can win this game straight up but I do like their chances at another upset and if anything this game comes down to the final drive again.

Trend of the Game: Texas Tech is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record.


Texas Tech 35, Iowa State 32






more to come...

Goodluck, hoping your wrong about Florida/ Auburn put my bets in early.

MF BOL today

Mr. Flava......well done Fri., solid capping.......BOL with all your action today buddy......continue your winning ways...…...indy

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California Golden Bears -11 (10 Units)

This is a super weird one. It's Home Coming in Berkely and the game starts at 11:30am local time? Oh boy. This is going to be different for a lot of these guys. I just want to point out right away that I am well aware that Golden Bears Head Coach Justin Wilcox is 0-3 SU coming off a bye week in his head coaching career in college football but that won't matter today. The Golden Bears needed the break badly after being ranked most of the season (a bit of a shock) and then losing to Arizona State and Oregon right before their off week. Oregon State on the other hand have a bye week looming and sometimes a looming bye week is as enticing as playing one of your rivals. This is their fourth straight week playing a PAC 12 opponent and although they beat UCLA a few weeks ago they lost to both Stanford and Utah at home. I bet the Beavers are happy RB Patrick Laird doesn't go to Cal anymore because he gashed them for almost 400 rushing yards combined in the last two meetings that were won by Cal by an average of 28 points per game.

The Golden Bears are still without QB Chase Garbers who was hurt and is not due back until later this season. The alternate options are not vert good so we can expect to see Cal run the ball, run the ball and run the ball some more here. Expect RB's Christoher Brown and Marcel Dancy Jr. to have monster games in this one in place of Laird against an Oregon State defense that has allowed 205.7 rushing yards per game this season and that ranks #111 in the Country in run defense. In their last three games the Beavers have allowed 204 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry and Cal despite the injury to their quarterback still has the ability to make plays in the air. QB Devon Modster (UCLA transfer) has been somewhat dreadful but this is his chance to call a game from the very beginning against a Beavers defense that allows big plays and 8.6 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and opponents have completed 68.9% of their passes for a an average QB Rating of 168.5. This defense has 0 interceptions and only 1 fumble recovery in their last three games and as long as the run is established early Modster should have a solid game. I'm going to apply the law of college football averages to this Oregon State offense today. In their last three games they have turned the ball over only 1 time (interception) and that's it. That's fantastic and probably the reason they have kept some games close but today they face a Cal defense that has 3 fumble recoveries and 1 interception in their last three games and who are due to make some big plays. Oregon State will turn the ball over at least twice. The last three opponents to face this Cal defense have an average QB Rating of only 120.1 (pretty good in college football) and have completed only 60% of their passes (also good in college football) for 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The Beavers can score but Cal's defense is one of the best in the Country when they are healthy and right now they are healthy. This is going to be a struggle for Oregon State.

Check the last two times these teams met and you will probably know that the Golden Bears have dominated both games winning by an average of 28 points per game. Having said that I do believe Oregon State have improved but this is arguably the best defense they have seen all year. The one other time they faced a "top rated" defense was last week against Utah at home and they scored only 7 points. You'll be impressed with Oregon State's 4-1 ATS in their last five road games but those games were against Hawaii, UCLA and last season at Washington and Colorado. Again none with the kind of defense they will see today. Cal comes into this game 7-2 ATS in their last nine Pac 12 Conference games and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus teams with a losing record so this is their kind of game. The Favorite in this series is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and Cal has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 overall. I'm going with the Golden Bears to get back on track here and win big off their bye week (5-2 ATS in their last seven games after bye week).

Trend of the Game: California is 7-2 ATS in their last nine Pac 12 Conference games.


California 35, Oregon State 16





more to come...

Great writeups.. Good luck sir

Nice hit on Pitt and the Buckeyes. Couldn't believe the total was 50 on Ohio St.

Gl!!!!!