Croakers Battle of the Belt 2019

croaker · Oct 17, 2019

With the untimely demise of mid-week MACtion [at least sad for the sports books who kept taking my money], the SunBelt has come to the rescue for degenerate amphibians.
I’m off to a surprising 3-0 start so am starting to take it seriously as this conference is almost single handedly keeping my BR afloat.

It’s traditional that as soon as I take some form of betting seriously it all goes pear shaped, but being an optimist maybe the SunBelt won’t let me down. I intend not to take much interest in the conference apart from looking at the numbers and the obvious stuff to prevent me confounding the selections with too much information.

I am happy to take full advantage of survivor bias to kick start my record.

The games are not as heavily bet or covered by the media so it is possible the lines may be a bit looser than the big games on Saturdays, also having this thread will enable me to keep notes on the games.

croaker said:
The only game in town, and I am keen to recover my losses from the Browns game [don't worry I'm not betting rent money] and I have time to watch the game later today.

The 4-0 Appalachian State Mountaineers travel to Lafayette to take on the team with the "coolest" name in football.

I've looked at the numbers and have Appalachian state by around 7pts neutral, however the line opened Cajuns -1 and has moved out to -2.5.

I don't know much about the teams but The Mountaineers did beat UNC who hung tough against Clemson. Maybe UNC were looking ahead and were not prepared, maybe not.

I expect the game to be decent as both teams have had a week and a half to prepare. They may not be top 10 but they are not bad teams.

I intend to bet 1.5u +2.5 and .5u ML on the Mountaineers, if anyone has any good info or thoughts on the game please post.

croaker said:
Following my good luck with App State I'm going to play the top of the table Sun Belt West clash between UL Monroe and Texas State.

This is pretty much a blind numbers bet and I get UL Monroe between -7 and -10 pts which is one of the biggest gaps I've come across so far this week, so the -3 for the Warhawks looks attractive.

They have lost to 3 decent teams Iowa State, FSU, and Memphis but I would rate Texas State significantly lower than each of these.

On the flip side they haven't actually beaten anyone decent either.

I've enjoyed College football a lot more than the NFL this year [with the teams actually trying to win rather than Tank for Tua] and I'm not really interested in the G-Men Pats game so will be watching this one instead.

I burnt though several units a couple of years ago on the midweek Maction games but hopefully the Sun Belt will treat me better. Can't be worse than betting on the Browns..... or waiting for Al Riveron to stun the world with his ever changing interpretations of the rules and you don't need to learn new words like eggrarious or whatever. The only good thing to come out of the Sean Payton rule for pass interference is that no-one cares about what a catch is anymore.

I'm betting 2u on the Warhawks -3 at -110.

croaker said:
Mid week football is back

The line opened at -14 [Troy] and has moved out to -17.

I cap it at -19 which makes it worthwhile for a 1u bet, hoping for positive variance, on a day where there is nothing else.

South Alabama's only win was a close game against the Jackson State who's only win has come against the Tennessee State Tigers.

If I was a Jaguar player, I would be putting more time into studying than football and looking to avoid injury.

Troy has been able to score against stronger opponents, and still have a shot at a bowl game so should have greater motivation.

Bet Troy -17 at -110 1u

Record after first 3 games +4.5u

Tomorrow the mighty Louisiana Rajun Cajuns make the trip to Jonesboro to take on the fierce Arkansas State Red Wolves.....

croaker · Oct 17, 2019

I've just capped the game between the Cajuns and the Red Wolves

The line opened with Ark St getting 6pts and it seems to be around 6-6.5 points depending.

My numbers come out at either -3 or -2, a slight edge to the Red Wolves. So I'm taking the 6.

The Red Wolves have mixed form including a 1TD loss to SMU and a 55-0 beat down by UGA, but they are at home, and did beat Troy a couple of weeks ago. I watched the Cajuns play last week and they seemed to be a work in progress so it's not out of question that Ark St get the cover.

Bet Arkansas State +6 at -110 for 1.5u