Mistaflava's NFL Football Week 7 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

Mistaflava's 2019 NFL Record: 41-22-3 ATS (+265.50 Units)

Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 8-4-1 ATS (+137.50 Units)


What a wild Week 6 it was in the NFL and in my POWER SELECTIONS thread. I went 6-3 ATS and hit my PLAY OF THE YEAR on the Steelers to cover the spread and had them winning on Money Line as well. Huge week. Now 23-9-1 ATS the last three weeks in NFL betting.

Wishing everyone a profitable week, let's make some money!

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Thursday, October 17




Denver Broncos +3 (10 Units)

So what are the odds exactly that the Kansas City Chiefs come into this game on a two game losing streak off home losses to Houston and Indianapolis? If you go all the way back to the Detroit game three weeks ago the Chiefs have now been outyarded by their opponent in three straight games something that did not happen at all in 2018. So what’s wrong exactly? Could it be that opposing teams have finally caught onto their schemes and how to stop this dynamic offense? I mean in their last three games they have managed only 23.7 points per game in their last three games and have done that on 357 total yards per game and an impressive 6.5 yards per play. If you asked me what I was betting on about a month ago I’d say Chiefs against this Broncos defense no matter what the line but the Broncos defense finally woke up after going the first three games of the season with 0 total sacks, 0 total interceptions and 0 total fumble recoveries. Well I can now tell you that in their last three games they have 12 sacks, 5 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery. That’s an incredible change of events for this defense. In those games they have allowed only 13 points per game and 301.7 total yards per game on 4.8 yards per play. The only weakness I’ve noticed is the run game where they allow 4.6 yards per carry in their last three games but Kansas City doesn’t really have a run game and average only 16.7 carries per game in their last three. Want to throw the ball against this defense? Just know that the last 3 quarterbacks (Gardner Minsher, Philip Rivers and Marcus Mariota) combined for an average QB Rating of 61.6 in those games while completing 61.7% of their passes for only 4.9 yards per pass attempt. These guys don’t allow chunk yardage. Kansas City has been a mess lately (5 fumbles in last three games) and Patrick Mahomes is completing only 56.0% of his passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. He has been sacked 5 times in those games and has an average QB Rating of 87.5. Denver’s 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down defense has been the best in the NFL over the span of the last three games (24.4%) and so has their Red Zone defense (touchdowns scored only 16.7% of the time). Again bad news for a Kansas City offense scoring touchdowns only 54.5% of the time in the Red Zone in their last three games. Like I said this is not the defense to play against when you’re looking for a bounce back. Something not right with this Chiefs offense right now.

The Denver Broncos have made quite the turnaround on their season. I was on them a few times earlier this season and I can safely say I tweeted and called them the worst team in the NFL on 2-3 occasions. My opinion of that has kind of changed. So much credit can be given to this Broncos defense who for some strange season seem to have improved after Bradly Chubb went down with a season ending injury (it doesn’t make sense really) but I think a big part of that turnaround for the defense has to be credited to the offense. They did virtually nothing for the first three weeks of the season but have since bounced back and the Broncos have won two straight games (straight up and spread). In those games the offense is averaging only 20 points per game but they have done that on 330.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. The Kansas City defense has not been good a tall, which we all knew coming into the season, and in their last three games they have allowed 26.7 points per game and have allowed 416.7 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play. That’s 0.9 more yards per play than the Broncos defense during that span and 115 more total yards per game. The Broncos running game is on fire right now with RB Philip Lindsay leading a group that averages 120.7 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry their last three games. The Chiefs run D has been brutal and has allowed 186 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry in those last three games and Lindsay should easily crack the 100 rushing yard mark in this one and add a few touchdowns. In the air, believe it or not, QB Joe Flacco has found his groove and is completing 62.8% of his passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games but he has thrown 3 interceptions. In those games he has an average QB Rating of 85.9. In their road games this season Kansas City has allowed opponents to complete 67.6% of their passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt and opposing road QB’s have an average QB Rating of 99.9 in those games. I do have to credit this Chiefs defense because they have 6 turnovers in their last three games and have kept the offense afloat with good field position and takeways but the Broncos have turned the ball over only 4 times in their last three games. I’m not a huge fan of this Broncos offense and I think the Chiefs will make some plays but if they can run the ball enough and keep Mahomes and company off the field (it’s been the formula so far), they will win this game.

I don’t want to play the crazy “contrarian” role for all the primetime games but it’s hard not to adore the fact that some 65-70% or more of the betting public are on the Chiefs who are coming off two straight losses (both at home) and who are playing against the hottest defense in the NFL right now in a divisional game. Think of how much money Las Vegas can make tonight. Looking back at the last few times Kansas City played in Denver they won by 4 in 2018, by 3 in 2017 and by 3 in 2016. Nothing ever comes easy against the Broncos or in this stadium. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games playing against a team with a losing record at home (Broncos are 1-2). Denver is an incredible 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday Night Football Games and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in October. All the ATS trends for the last few meetings points to the Chiefs but the UNDERDOG is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings and I’m going with the Broncos here.


Trend of the Game: Denver is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday Night Football games.


Denver 20, Kansas City 17





more to come...

Mr. Flava...….solid write up buddy, thank you...….on this with you......here's to a profitable weekend …….indy

Love it!!! Great stuff!!!

Just a thought here...
Hard to trust a Denver team with 2 wins against 2 poorly playing teams like the Chargers (2 wins) who have crashed and burned and are allowing 31 points per game on defense average to its opponents., - of which - Denver still only managed 20 against the Chargers? --- and a Tennessee team (2 wins - (One against a Browns team that had 3 turnovers and 18 penalties, by which Tennessee only scored one TD on their own in that game) and who has no wins against a winning team i.e. GB, Oakland and Chicago ? This is the first team they have faced with a winning record in 3 weeks..

I took note on you mentioning all the turnovers and sacks Denver has got lately...again against losers. They will need those tonight from a solid KC team, in my opinion...
FWIW.

G-Man! said:

Just a thought here...
Hard to trust a Denver team with 2 wins against 2 poorly playing teams like the Chargers (2 wins) who have crashed and burned and are allowing 31 points per game on defense average to its opponents., - of which - Denver still only managed 20 against the Chargers? --- and a Tennessee team (2 wins - (One against a Browns team that had 3 turnovers and 18 penalties, by which Tennessee only scored one TD on their own in that game) and who has no wins against a winning team i.e. GB, Oakland and Chicago ? This is the first team they have faced with a winning record in 3 weeks..

I took note on you mentioning all the turnovers and sacks Denver has got lately...again against losers. They will need those tonight from a solid KC team, in my opinion...
FWIW.

Click to expand...

You were spot on! Bronco fan here that really knew this was not going to be as easy as it seemed.... Lost season now...

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Sunday, October 20



Buffalo Bills -17 (10 Units)

Don't call me a home or anything in this one but the Miami Dolphins are comparable to a college football team or even maybe a high school team. I was on them last week to cover the spread at home against Washington and they did just that (barely) thanks to a late touchdown and missed two point conversion going for the win instead of overtime. Make no mistake about this team is tanking for the #1 pick overall. The Dolphins have been outyarded in every single game this season and have covered the spread only one time and that was last week so what makes anyone think they can come into hostile territory against arguably the best defense in the NFL and win? Tom Brady and Patriots struggled to score points or even get first downs in this stadium. The Dolphins come into this game averaging only 10.6 points per game in their last three games on 262.3 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play. That's brutal. The Bills defense is ranked #3 in total yards, #4 in points allowed, #3 against the pass and #7 against the run. The Dolphins struggle big time running the ball and average only 3.6 yards per carry their last three games and the Bills defense allows only 80.7 rushing yards per game during their last three games. So we move to the air. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was awesome in relief last week but history has it that the regression is coming and will start today against a Bills defense allowing only 52.6% of their last three opponents passes to be completed for 5.6 yards per pass attempt and their last three QB opponents have an average QB Rating of 59.6 (second only to the Patriots during that time span). The Dolphins O-Line is a mess and has allowed 13 sacks in their last three games. The Bills pass rush should feed off of this and so should their 3rd down defense (27.9%) and their Red Zone defense (TD's scored only 50% of the time) in their last three games. Miami is bad on 3rd downs and even worse in the Red Zone.

The Buffalo Bills come into this game on quite the high after they went to Nashville two weeks ago and had half the stadium (or more) filled with the Bills mafia for a massive win over the Tennessee Titans to make them 4-1 ATS and SU on the season. I went back as far as I could find stats and the Bills are 2-1 ATS in their last three games when favored at home by 17+ points (dating back to a 42-6 win over the Colts in 1991). The offense should have no problems getting things going in this game as they come into the game averaging only 15 points per game and they've had issues finishing in the Red Zone but the offense averages 368 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. The offensive outburst is not only due but it's coming. Miami's defense is a train wreck and they have allowed 26 points per game in their last three games and allowed 392.3 total yards of offense on 6.3 yards per play. The Bills should have no problems running the ball in this game as they average 4.9 yards per carry in their last three games and RB Frank Gore could see a workhorse type load today against this Dolphins defense allowing 153 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air QB Josh Allen is back and healthy and although he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season he doesn't have Xavie Howard to worry about in this game (or so the reports say) and Miami's secondary has only 1 interception in their last three games. They also have only 2 sacks and have recovered 0 fumbles in those games. These are all problems the Bills had with some other defenses in this league but today Josh Allen should be able to tee off and I see massive games from WR John Brown, WR Duke Williams (2nd NFL game) and a bunch of the other guys in this core. Buffalo has been bad on 3rd downs and bad in the Red Zone the last three games but Miami is what the doctor ordered as they have allowed their last three opponents to convert 44.1% of the time on 3rd down and score touchdowns 70% of the time in the Red Zone. Big day for the Bills offense.

This used to be a competitive series but now it's just downright sad and the Bills have dominated for a while. I expect that to continue and I love that some 55% of the betting public is on Miami here. Not too sure why seeing how they are coming off their first spread cover of the season and it came on a final second play. Miami is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games and they come into this game 1-7 ATS dating back to last season. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus AFC Conference opponents and they are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games versus a team with a winning record. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games under Sean McDermott when coming off a bye week. Also when the Bills have scored less than 15 points in a game they have gone out the next game and gone 4-0 ATS in their last four of those scenarios. The Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and the Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Buffalo. The Home Team has covered 8 of the last 11 games in this series and I'm going with a big win for Buffalo coming out of their bye week.

Trend of the Game: Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games hosting Miami.


Buffalo 34, Miami 3






more to come...

G-Man! said:

Just a thought here...
Hard to trust a Denver team with 2 wins against 2 poorly playing teams like the Chargers (2 wins) who have crashed and burned and are allowing 31 points per game on defense average to its opponents., - of which - Denver still only managed 20 against the Chargers? --- and a Tennessee team (2 wins - (One against a Browns team that had 3 turnovers and 18 penalties, by which Tennessee only scored one TD on their own in that game) and who has no wins against a winning team i.e. GB, Oakland and Chicago ? This is the first team they have faced with a winning record in 3 weeks..

I took note on you mentioning all the turnovers and sacks Denver has got lately...again against losers. They will need those tonight from a solid KC team, in my opinion...
FWIW.

Click to expand...

Yep great call and wish I had seen this before placing my bet. I love contrarian information and believe it or not I pay attention to it and sometimes go against my own wagers. Well done G-Man and good luck on Sunday!

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Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 (10 Units)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the toughest teams to get an actual read on in the NFL. After beating both Denver and Tennessee (two horrible teams), people started believing and the Gardner Minshew hype started growing and bettors started backing only to have them lose against Carolina and go down against the Saints last week. They looked awful last week (at home) and were outyarded by a total of 100 yards (that's a lot in the NFL). When you look at Cincinnati's stats, specially on defense, it's bad. The Bengals have allowed 200.3 rushing yards per game on 5.7 yards per carry in their last three games and Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette should have a monster game in this offense that averages 164.3 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry in their last three games. But not so fast. For as bad as the Cincinnati defense has been they have allowed only 25.3 points per game and have held their last three opponents to touchdown scoring rate in the Red Zone of only 30% and have forced 10 FG's in those games. One of the big issues I have with Jacksonville is they turn the ball over a lot (4 in their last three games) and Cincinnati's defense, who don't have an interception in their last three games and have only 1 on the season, are due for some big plays here. Minshew has completed only 55.7% of his passes the last three games for 6.6 yards per pass attempt and he's been sacked 9 times. Jacksonville is also one of the worst Red Zone teams in the NFL (Cincinnati says hold my beer) scoring touchdowns only 36.4% of the time their last three. Again the Cincinnati defense has bot been as bad as advertised and if they can find a way to score early and keep Fournette from running for 200, they'll give their offense and chance to win here. Just a side note, no Carlos Dunlap and no Dre Kirkpatrick on this Bengals defense today.

The Cincinnati Bengals are an awful football team at 0-6 SU on the season but look at the scores in their games. They've been competing for the most part and that is none the more evident than their 3-3 ATS record on the season. But even recently they are coming off a 6 points loss at Baltimore, a 3 point loss at home to Arizona, they went to Buffalo and lost by only 4 and they almost beat the Seahawks on the road in Week 1 blowing a late lead and losing 21-20. This team competes, most of the time. I hope this is one of those times. I like the matchup. For all those bashing the Bengals defense who have allowed 6.6 yards per play in their last three games, what about the Jacksonville defense who have ALSO allowed 6.6 yards per play in their last three games and have allowed virtually the same amount of points at 23.7 per game. The difference is the Bengals have not been able to run the ball at all against Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Arizona but in comes the league's #25 ranked run defense who have allowed 152.3 rushing yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry. JESUS CHRIST that's a lot! Can you say Joe Mixon monster game? In the air, QB Andy Dalton has been somewhat dreadful with interceptions (5) being the main issue for him all season but don't you feel he is due for a big game? The loss of Jalen Ramsey has hurt the Jags whether they want to admit it or not they allow opponents to complete 60% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt and 228.3 passing yards per game in their last three (Kyle Allen, Joe Flacco and Teddy Bridgewater). The Jaguars defense is not as good in the Red Zone as Cincinnati as their last three opponents have scored touchdowns 55.6% of the time and they have managed to force only 5 FG attempts to the Bengals 10. Protection will be an issue for Dalton in this game as it is in every game but I think Joe Mixon establishes a running game early and Dalton makes the plays he needs to make.

The last time these two teams met was back in 2017 and the Jaguars crushed the Bengals with Brian Bortles at QB and Chris Ivory at RB. Times have changed. This is actually the 5th time in his career that Andy Dalton faces the Jaguars and aside from that loss I just mentioned he is 3-1 against them and 2-1-1 ATS on the spread. The Jaguars are never an ideal team to bet on because they have zero consistency. Overall they have covered the spread in only 5 of their last 18 games. Think about that for a second. Cincinnati for as bad as they have been have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus AFC opponents. The last five times Jacksonville went on the road and played against a home team with a losing record like Cincinnati has, they were only 1-3-1 ATS in those games. I'm calling for the Bengals to win their first game of the season even without some of their top players on defense. That would be so Jacksonville.

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus AFC opponents.


Cincinnati 23, Jacksonville 21




more to come...

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Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (10 Units)

The Minnesota Vikings have already proven they can win at home and I'm not sure anyone is going to walk in there and beat them this season. Not now and not in the playoffs but can they win away from home is the question? So far this season they went to Green Bay and lost by 5 but outyarded the Packers by 86 total yards. They then went to Chicago and lost by 10 in probably their worst game of the season. Then came the remedy in a road game at the New York Giants where the Vikings won by 18 and outyarded the Giants by a crazy 279 total yards. Don't forget the Vikings have won 3 of their last 4 games played at Ford Field. The difference for me in this game is going to be defense. For as good as the Lions have been and yes I know CB Darius Slay is back, they have allowed a crazy 27 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 419.3 total yards of offense on 6.3 yards per play. This Vikings offense should so some damage and they could do some big time damage off a Lions D who played on Monday Night Football in a deflating loss. Minnesota's offense is on fire and average 6.5 yards per play their last three games. This should be another monster game for RB Dalvin Cook who is going up against a Lions defense that has been shredded for 5.0 yards per carry their last three games (see the Packers RB's last week). As for QB Kirk Cousins and all the shit he takes, he's got a QB Rating of 119.2 in his last three games (among the leaders in the NFL) and he has completed 77.2% of his passes for 8.5 yards per pass attempt in his last three games while throwing only 1 interception. The fact that he's been sacked 10 times in those game is concerning but the Lions don't have a featured pass rusher and have only 4 sacks in their last three games. The Lions have somewhat struggled in the Red Zone the last three games and Minnesota is scoring touchdowns 60% of the time in there in their last three. I think we see another big game from the Vikings offense. Detroit's D is tired, deflated and have been gashed a few times the last three games.

The Detroit Lions got screwed last week at Green Bay on Monday Night Football and we all saw it live. That was one of the worst displays of officiating ever but if you had the Lions on the spread you loved it and you also loved Green Bay RB Jamaal Williams sitting down on the 1-2 yard line to finish the game instead of scoring an open touchdowns and covering for Green Bay backers. Gotta love the logic in football. No matter how you look at it that was a deflating loss all around because they deserved to win. The Lions offense has been very good and they average 26.3 points per game in their last three games but how about this Minnesota defense? The Vikings get better each week and they have allowed only only 15.3 points per game (many of them because of turnovers by the offense) on 293.3 total yards of offense and only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games. This won't be easy for Detroit to do anything today. You can try and establish the run against the Vikings but the Lions struggle with that and average only 109.3 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry their last three games. Well Minnesota has allowed only 81.3 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry in their last three games. Do you not feel QB Matthew Stafford is due for some interceptions? He has been great and has only thrown 2 all season but none in the last three games. Minnesota's secondary has 3 interceptions in the last three games and as a unit they have 8 sacks in those games so Stafford will be under pressure all game and I think he forces things a little bit trying to make up for last week. I also love Minnesota's Red Zone defense as their last three opponents have scored touchdowns only 28.6% of the time. Again this is a tough sledding game for the Lions offense.

It seems like the NFC North play each other every single week doesn't it? Seriously they must have the most divisional matchups in the NFL this year. Having said that, the Vikings love playing in this place and have won 3 of their last 4 here.. Sure they lost at Green Bay and at Chicago but that was outdoors. This is indoors and resembles their home stadium where they have been fantastic this season. Check the Field Turf numbers. Minnesota is 38-14-1 ATS in their last 53 games played on the fake stuff. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games versus a home team that has a record of .500 or worse and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games versus teams with a record of .500 or worse overall. The Lions have covered the spread in four straight games coming into this but the matchup for me is probably one of their worst all year. I also don't think the Lions ever got over getting screwed on Monday Night Football. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Ford Field and they are 17-8-3 ATS in their last 28 meetings overall. This is exactly the matchup the Vikings wanted and needed today for their first NFC North road win of the season (currently 0-2). I'm going Vikings.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine October games.


Minnesota 28, Detroit 10





more to come...

MistaFlava said:

Yep great call and wish I had seen this before placing my bet. I love contrarian information and believe it or not I pay attention to it and sometimes go against my own wagers. Well done G-Man and good luck on Sunday!

Click to expand...

Thanks for the feedback. And today I like the Chargers over Tennessee. The two Teams I used in comparison to this Denver game. . The battle between to bad teams...

MistaFlava said:

Yep great call and wish I had seen this before placing my bet. I love contrarian information and believe it or not I pay attention to it and sometimes go against my own wagers. Well done G-Man and good luck on Sunday!

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I on the same 3 teams myself (I played 11) that you have posted above here today Flava.
Good luck all day my friend.

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Green Bay Packers -5 (10 Units)

The Oakland Raiders have become the darlings of bettors in Vegas for some reason. I don't see the big deal to be honest. Sure they have a couple of big wins under their belts but looking back on who they have played their 3 spread covers this season have come against Chicago, Indianapolis and Denver. None of those teams are even sniffing the playoffs in 2019. In come the 5-1 Green Bay Packers who even after playing one of their worst games all season still found a way to win on Monday Night. The Raiders won't have their way in this one because Green Bay knows they got away with one. The Raiders have a decent offense that is averaging 23 points per game in their last three games on 359 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. Does anyone remember the early season talks about Green Bay and how good their defense is in 2019? Well they have allowed 26.7 points per game in their last three games on a crazy 399.3 total yards of offense and 6.8 yards per play. Unacceptable and the laws of football averages say they will be a lot better in this game. Turnovers on the offensive side of things have not helped but let's take a look at the Raiders. They pass and the run with an even balance but a lot of their success is based on the fact that QB Derek Carr completes short passes and moves the sticks while the running game gets them the early down 4-5 yard. Green Bay doesn't allow that. Carr has completed 75.3% of his passes the last three games (evidence of the short passing game) but Green Bay's secondary has allowed opponents at home to complete only 56.7% of their passes for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and they have 3 interceptions in their last three games. Oakland continues to be a team that can't stop taking penalties (8.0 per game their last three) and it wouldn't surprise me if Derek Carr threw 2 interceptions in this one against this defense. He usually tries to force things in the Red Zone but we haven't seen it yet this year.

The Green Bay Packers are well aware they had no business beating the Lions at home on Monday Night Football but hey they'll take it and I know Matt LaFleur wasn't happy with the effort so you can expect the Packers to come out guns blazing in this one. They've only played one AFC West team at home so far in 2019 and that was a 27-16 win over the Denver Broncos. I expect a very similar type of result in this one where the Packers finally play a bit of defense and make things hell for their opponent. For all those following the Packers injuries, Aaron Rodgers will have to throw to a bunch of no name and random guys against today as WR Devante Adams (out) and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Questionable) could be out. That's fine. We saw it at the end of the Lions game, Rodgers makes the best of it. A big part of the Packers attack is the running game and you can expect them to run the ball again against a Raiders defense that has allowed 26.3 points per game in their last three games and allowed 4.3 yards per carry on the ground. The Packers are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense even with all the injuries and Rodgers is averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt in his last three games while completing 63.5% of his passes. One of the areas this offense has really struggled the last three weeks is 3rd downs (37.1%) and Red Zone touchdowns (50%) but the Raiders are the cure for all of this. Oakland has allowed their last three opponents to convert 3rd downs 41.7% of the time and those same opponents have scored touchdowns 80% of the time (worst in the NFL during that time span). This is huge when it comes to covering a 5 point spread and it could be the difference in the end. I think Green Bay has another solid offensive performance and they'll pound the ball on the ground against a Raiders defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry on the road this season.

Honestly you can't really talk about past meetings because the last time these teams played each other in Green Bay was 2011. However look at things this way. Green Bay played one home game this season versus an AFC West opponent and won 27-16 (Denver). Oakland played one NFC North opponent on the road and got crushed 34-14 at Minnesota. The Raiders are coming off a huge home win over the Chicago Bears but they are only 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a straight up win. They are also only 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Green Bay did not cover last week but they could have if Jamal Williams scoots into an open end zone instead of sitting down on the 2 yard line. The Packers are a tremendous "rebound" team with their 4-0 ATS record playing on a Sunday following a Monday Night Game and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a spread loss. I like the Packers to blow the Raiders out in this one.

Trend of the Game: Oakland is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a straight up win.


Green Bay 33, Oakland 13





more to come...

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Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (10 Units)

The Arizona Cardinals are that team you never really believe in but with the #1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft running the show you almost always have to believe. QB Kyler Murray's ability to come from behind late in games and lead the Cardinals to game winning drives has been impressive to say the least even if their two wins have come against Cincinnati and Atlanta. The Giants are worse! So coming into this game the Cardinals are on a two game win streak and yet the public refuses to back them and are blinded by the fact that Saquon Barkley is back for the Giants in this game. Not buying it. The Cardinals are averaging only 23.3 points per game in their last three games but they also average a whopping 425.7 total yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play in those games. HOLY SMOKES! The Giants are not horrendous on defense but they have allowed 6.0 yards per play their last three games and if it wasn't for turnovers (they have forced 7 in those games) things could be a lot worse. The word is RB David Johnson is healthy and even when he was hurt this running game (thanks to Murray as well) was nasty averaging 5.4 yards per carry. This is a massive problem for the Giants who have allowed 4.5 yards per carry their last three games and who have struggled against teams who can run the ball. In the air Murray has a QB Rating of 97.5 the last three games (I can list you some elite QB's who don't even come close to this) completing 68.3% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt while throwing only 1 interception. The Giants secondary is a mess! They allow opponents to complete 70.8% of their passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt their last three games and have lived off sacks (9) and turnovers (7) in those games. Well hate to break it to you but Arizona has turned the ball over 1 time in their last three games and Murray has been sacked only 5 times in those games. The Red Zone offense could use some work (10 FG attempts in last three games) but the Cardinals convert 45.7% of the time on 3rd downs and should continue to use the winning formula of running the ball and sustaining long scoring drives.

The New York Giants have fans on the bandwagon that jump off the bandwagon that jump back on the bandwagon and that don't really know what they are doing. After wins over Tampa Bay and Washington when Daniel Jones was inserted as quarterback, this fan base went absolutely bonkers only to be treated to brutal losses to the Vikings and Patriots in their last two outings. Fans all jumped off after that and according to the message boards Daniel Jones sucks. But wait, they are all back on that bandwagon this week because RB Saquon Barkley is back!!! I don't blame them though because the Cardinals defense has not been good at all this season and rank #26 against the run but they've improved in their last three games allowing only 108.7 rushing yards per game compared to 132 per game on the season. That's huge. How much better is this offense going to get anyways? Jones has really struggled lately against two very good defense completing only 59% of his passes for 177.7 passing yards and 5.9 yards per pass attempt while throwing 6 interceptions. The Giants just can't hold onto the ball and have 9 turnovers in their last three games. Arizona comes in close to dead last in the NFL in defensive turnovers forced and have a grand total of 0 in their last three games. Arizona actually has 0 interceptions on the season! The laws are talking and they are due against a QB who has thrown 6 in three games. Keep that in mind. The pressure up front has been there (7 sacks in last three games) and that should lead to some more turnovers for this Giants offense in this game. The Giants have been awful in the Red Zone the last three games scoring touchdowns only 33.3% of the time and the Cardinals defensive strength has been in the Red Zone so far this season where opponents are scoring touchdowns only 54.2% of the time (13 forced FG attempts on the year). I think Arizona finally opens their interception bank account in this game and I am calling for their defense to have one of their better games this season.

Seriously what is the spread in this game if Barkely is still OUT? A pick em or maybe 1 but now the Giants are favored by 3.5 points because he's back from missing a bunch of games? Talk about baiting the public into a play. Sheesh. I do believe Barkley will make a difference but he's missed time and that's tough to get right back into things. The Cardinals come into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five road games dating back to last season and they are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games versus a team with a losing record at home. The Giants have been great versus opponents with losing record and this is usually the kind of game they win and cover but they are 2-8-1 ATS ni their last 11 home games and Arizona is an incredible 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to the Giants home field. The Road Team has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings and I'm going with Arizona to win what could be a battle of the Field Goals or it could be a shootout! Cardinals win their third straight.

Trend of the Game: NY Giants are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Home Games.


Arizona 28, NY Giants 24





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San Francisco 49ers -9.5 (10 Units)

I have not been with the betting public much this week so I figured I would jump on what could be one of the biggest "Sucker" bets of the weeks but one things is for sure I am probably done going against the Niners this season. You have to go back all the way to 2012 to find the last time the Niners were favored by 10+ in a road game and although they won they only won by 7 over the St. Louis Rams in the final week of the regular season. They key right there is FINAL WEEK. When nothing matters. Otherwise this is only the second time since 1998. Crazy. I thought the worst game this Niners team played was in Tampa Bay to open the season in a 31-17 win (sounds stupid but they were outyarded by 39 yards in that one). Since that game the Niners have outyarded their opponents by 255 total yards (Cincinnati), by 197 total yards (Pittsburgh), by 266 total yards (Cleveland) and by 174 total yards (LA Rams). This is incredible. In those games they went 3-1 ATS. The Redskins are a mess so expect another massive yard differential in this one against a Washington defense allowing 24.3 points per game in their last three games on 367.3 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. The Niners have controlled games by pounding the ball on the ground (180.7 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games) and pound the ball they will do today against a Redskins defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry in their last three games. The only issue with San Francisco and this could be why the line is the way it is has to be turnovers. They have turned the ball over 7 times in the last three games (3 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles). The Redskins secondary has 5 interceptions in their last three games but they have also allowed those quarterbacks to complete 66.7% of their passes for 241.3 passing yards per game and don't forget that includes games versus the Giants and Dolphins. Yuck. Discipline has been a massive plus for the Niners who averages only 4.3 penalties per game in their last three games. I really like them to run all over the Redskins today and QB Jimmy Garroppolo won't even have to do that much although he is averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt in his last three games. This is a mismatch all around.

The Washington Redskins are a complete disaster. They had one job last week in Miami and that was to win (and cover for their backers) but they almost got sniped for a loss on the final play as the Miami Dolphins went for 2 point conversion giving Washington the W but the L in the spread column (all that matters to us anyways). You see I can back a team like the Bengals today because they have proven to be competitive but the Redskins, who are now playing under a new Head Coach, lose big. They lost by 26 to the Patriots, by 21 to the Giants, by 16 to Chicago and by 10 to Dallas. They were competitive in the Eagles game in Week 1 and that was about it. Don't expect that again here. San Francisco's defense is the most underrated in the NFL. The Redskins no matter who they throw at QB (Case Keenum today) are averaging only 9 points per game on 236.7 total yards and 4.7 yards per play in their last three games. San Francisco's defense is allowing only 10 points per game in their last three (versus LA Rams, Cleveland and Pittsburgh) and have allowed an NFL low 192 total yards and 4.2 yards per play in those games. So how is Washington going to score today? If they can run the ball they have a shot because the Niners have struggled against the run in their last three games but eventually the Redskins are going to have to throw the ball in this game and that's just not going to end well. The Redksins QBs have an average QB Rating of 51.3 in their last three games. San Francisco's last three QB opponents have an average QB Rating of 50.2 in their games. Whoa! The Niners have allowed those quarterbacks to complete only 48% of their passes for only 3.8 yards per pass attempt and have 10 sacks, 3 interceptions and 7 forced fumbles (4 recovered) in their last three games. The Redskins are screwed (9 sacks allowed, 5 interceptions thrown and 1 lost fumble the last three games). The Redskins convert only 15.2% of the time on 3rd downs (worst in the NFL) the last three games and score touchdowns 0% of the time in the Red Zone (worst in the NFL) in those games. San Francisco's defense is #1 in 3rd down defense (12.5%) during that same time span and #1 in Red Zone defense (20%) during that same time span. Crazy stuff.

Search for this line and you will find it. Some of the bigger books are offering -10 but if you look around there are several still at 9.5 (bwin). Trying to bait us in? Possibly but I have to give it a shot. I have to say if the Niners don't win this game big then I really give up on giving any value to how teams have played lately. This is the biggest offense (Washingtong) versus defense (San Francisco) mismtach of the NFL season. Washington is 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, they 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus NFC opponents. The Niners are 4-1 ATS in their games this season and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Washington. Also keep in mind the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series and this should be a blowout win.

Trend of the Game: Washington is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus NFC opponents.


San Francisco 31, Washington 0






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great writeups as usual - -all the best mistaflava

Great write ups and insights. Thx for this. I’m with you on most of them. BOL

You have made me a believer Mista, in the 12 step world it is said the the message that can hold and interest these people must have depth and weight. (paraphrased) You have provided that in the NFL.

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Los Angeles Chargers +3 (10 Units)

Chicago Bears -4 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE AFTERNOON***

Baltimore Ravens +3 (10 Units)





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Dallas Cowboys -3 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

The Philadelphia Eagles are playing this game without WR DeSean Jackscon, RB Darren Sproles, T Justin Peters, LB Nigel Bradham. Yikes. CB Jalen Mills is back from the IR but it will probably take a bit of time for him to get up to speed. I'm usually a fan of the Eagles when they come to Dallas because the last two times Dallas won here against them they needed overtime both times and won 29-23 both times. The Eagles are coming off a blowout loss at Minnesota last week as a +3.5 point underdog and they have now been outyarded in two of their last three games. The Eagles offense comes into this game averaging 28.3 points per game in their last three games but they've managed only 333.7 total yards of offense in those games and 5.5 yards per play. That is all thanks to their defense who have come up with a crazy 7 turnovers in their last three games and gifted the offense with great field position or just scored points themselves. Back to the offense. They are running the ball pretty well at 122.7 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry their last three games but one thing you can't do against this Cowboys defense is run the ball. They are very solid and rarely give up big runs allowing 3.9 yards per carry on only 88.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games. So this is all on QB Carson Wentz and he's been pretty good completing 60.8% of his passes for 211 passing yards and 6.5 yards per pass attempt. In those games he's been sacked only 3 times but that changes tonight. The Cowboys have 9 sacks in their last three games, they will bring some pressure in this game and their defense is due to force some turnovers (only 2 in their last three games with no fumble recoveries). The Eagles have put the ball on the ground 4 times in their last three games but lost only 2 of those. Another reason the Eagles have big offensive numbers (points wise) is their 41.2% conversion rate on 3rd downs and the fact that they have scored touchdowns 87.5% of the time in the Red Zone (NFL Leading) in the last three games. Well the Cowboys defense has allowed their last three opponents to convert only 30.6% of the time on 3rd down and their opponents score touchdowns only 50% of the time in those games. Like I said expect the Cowboys to force some turnovers in this game.

The Dallas Cowboys have been horrendous to say the least (I think I said the same about Cincinnati earlier so I hope this doesn't come back to bite me) but the reason Jason Garrett still has a job and the reason this team is not in full panic mode is because they have actually played well. Sure they have lost 3 in a row after winning 3 in a row to start the season but their only really bad game was against the Saints a few weeks ago on Primetime TV and on the road where they lost 12-10. Now they're at home and playing a divisional (hated) opponent. If you can't get up for this game don't show up the rest of the year. The Cowboys have outyarded 5 of their 6 opponents this season and that's what leads me to believe they are playing better than the result say. Randall Cobb and Amari Cooper are playing tonight and that's huge. I say that because the Eagles defense, for as many turnovers as they have created, have not been good. They have allowed 23.7 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 355.3 total yards and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Don't expect RB Ezekiel Elliott to go off in this game because the Eagles are good against the run but hold on. In two games against the Eagles last season Zeke ran for 264 yards, 5.6 yards per carry and 1 rushing touchdown while catching 18 passes for 115 yards and 1 touchdown. We will see Zeke tonight and lots of Zeke. That should open things in the air. QB Dak Prescott is averaging 307.7 passing yards per game while completing 65.8% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt his last three games but 4 interceptions have held him back. Clean that up and this offense is scary. The Eagles have allowed 266.7 passing yards on 7.4 yards per pass attempt and their last three opponents have completed 65.7% of their passes. THE LAWS OF FOOTBALL AVERAGES say that after 7 turnovers in the last three games the Eagles defense is due for a regression and the Cowboys should take care of the ball. Dallas is very good on 3rd downs the last three games converting 44.6% of the time and their Red Zone offense should improve against an Eagles D allowing opponents to score touchdowns 58.3% of the time in their last three games. I think we see a monster game from Dak, Zeke and the offense.

Like I've already mentioned earlier the Cowboys have only been able to beat the Eagles twice at home since the 2012 NFL season and both those times were in overtime and by a final score of 29-23. That doesn't tell us much. The Cowboys are due big time and they've played well enough to win all their games. The Eagles come into this game only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus NFC opponents and they are the UNDERDOG is only 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings. Sure the road team has been the way to go but the stakes are kind of dire tonight and I prefer backing a Cowboys team that is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus NFC East opponents. Is that even possible? The Cowboys are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 250+ passing yards in the previous game and this is a fantastic bounce back spot against a division rivals and we all know they love playing the NFC East. This will be the rare occasion the game is not even close between these two in Dallas. Cowboys big tonight! Enjoy the Sunday Nighter and my big play this week.

Trend of the Game: Dallas is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus NFC East opponents.


Dallas 34, Philadelphia 9





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