Week 9 jump on there ASAP

Codebreaker · Oct 20, 2019

Tease OSU down 7 vs Wisc. Yes, Wisc stumbled, but OSU means business this year. Wisc will struggle in Columbus, looks like Vegas has it OSU -14, OSU will take care of business, but I like to tease games

Tease Duke down at UNC. I'm assuming Duke will be favored, UNC just played 2 football games yesterday, and lost both. Duke coming off humiliation at UVA

More to come, some good matchups this week

bigwang · Oct 20, 2019

Teasing college is very -ev.

VegasKnows · Oct 20, 2019

I'm a Big10 fan (Michigan too, feel sorry for me later!) and most of my plays on the Big10. Ohio State should cover the -14 even with Wisky having the big letdown.
Big athletic talent difference. Ohio State's team motto is "Take care of business" and so far they have!

When I tease it is usually a 2-team parlay teased +6 to even odds. That works good for me. If teasing -7 works for you, I say go for it!

GOOD LUCK!

bookiereport · Oct 20, 2019

Codebreaker said:
Tease OSU down 7 vs Wisc. Yes, Wisc stumbled, but OSU means business this year. Wisc will struggle in Columbus, looks like Vegas has it OSU -14, OSU will take care of business, but I like to tease games

Tease Duke down at UNC. I'm assuming Duke will be favored, UNC just played 2 football games yesterday, and lost both. Duke coming off humiliation at UVA

More to come, some good matchups this week

UNC is favored by 4 hmmm

Codebreaker · Oct 20, 2019

Yes, UNC favored by 4 vs Duke. That is a surprising spread. Vegas is saying something here. Can UNC brushoff a 6 OT loss as a favorite in Blacksburg? Yes UNC could have won the game after the 4 OT if their FG kicker just made a simple kick, Would winning that game after 6 OT's, make UNC a dog vs Duke? So maybe playing and losing in 6 OT's is not significant. These are 19-20 year old they are best equip to bounce back.

Prior to the UVA debacle I would have rated Duke ahead of UNC, but obviously Vegas does not see that. At best I see the teams as similar, so maybe the play is to tease Duke up to +8, with the idea that UNC will have some negative effect of losing such a wild game and Duke is motivated by such a poor outting in Charlotsville.

Vegas made UNC the favorite by 3.5 in Blacksburg, and after 6OT's it was a 3 point game. Im guessing money flows to Duke in the game for all the reasons I suggest. Vegas is saying be careful of Duke +4, UNC is a pretty good team, +4 is not be the bargain, it may appear

bpoint · Oct 21, 2019

As far as the Duke vs. UNC spread, I think Vegas was a bit lazy. UNC has a power rating of 74, and Duke 73. Give UNC 3 points for home field and you have UNC -4 exactly. They put no thought in it at all. I see a case for both sides. I like how UNC fights and never gives up. And I like how Duke recovered from getting destroyed by Wake last year. This game is all about the psychology of the players, and maybe not who the best team is. It seems like there would be easier games on the board than this.

Codebreaker · Oct 24, 2019

Mich now a home dog +1, the public moved to ND just as expected. I teased Mich up to +8 at home, will add more if the public wants to push ND to -3. Mich will match up in the trenches with ND, it won't be like UVA where ND had a huge edge on the OL/DL.

At Taking Mich at +8 or better the spread is close to 3 Standard deviations or 99% chance of cover. If the public runs ND to -3 and I can get Mich at +10 or better. It will be over 3 standard deviations and as close to 100% as you can get.

Only a complete failure on Mich part either 5+ turnovers, multiple key injuries, ect can generate an outcome of 3 standard deviations.

I have nothing on the ML because Vegas is pegging this game at less then +-3 points. Bringing in bad officiating, a key turnover, ect ie. completely random events.

Skeeter123 · Oct 24, 2019

Codebreaker said:
Mich now a home dog +1, the public moved to ND just as expected. I teased Mich up to +8 at home, will add more if the public wants to push ND to -3. Mich will match up in the trenches with ND, it won't be like UVA where ND had a huge edge on the OL/DL.

At Taking Mich at +8 or better the spread is close to 3 Standard deviations or 99% chance of cover. If the public runs ND to -3 and I can get Mich at +10 or better. It will be over 3 standard deviations and as close to 100% as you can get.

Only a complete failure on Mich part either 5+ turnovers, multiple key injuries, ect can generate an outcome of 3 standard deviations.

I have nothing on the ML because Vegas is pegging this game at less then +-3 points. Bringing in bad officiating, a key turnover, ect ie. completely random events.

Codebreaker, can you explain how you tease Michigan to +8, but you don’t have another game associated with this bet? A teaser is a combined bet with another specific game (typically 2 or 3 games) and you have to win them all. You mention Ohio State and Duke above. Are you playing those three together?

The reason I bring this up, if you’re suggesting to tease all of these games and hypothetically OSU wins by 6, you lose all bets. I love the reasoning, but it would be great if you could provide specific teases that you are playing so people can follow if they choose.

Unless of course you’re simply proving games that you “think” people should tease, and let them choose the combinations for themselves? If that’s the case, great...I would just clarify that.

Thanks and GL

:toast:

Codebreaker · Oct 24, 2019

Yes, the idea is to fill the thread up with teases that make sense and the logic behind the idea. Picking the combinations is up to the person risking his hard earned money. The thrill in this for me is 6 and 7 game teaser parlays with games outside 3 standard deviations. The games that blow up are the ones like Miami/GT, I knew Miami was a f-up, but they had a 99% chance of covering that 7 point tease vs GT. Avoiding Miami comes down to someone who is much closer then I am to Miami to post a warning or thoughts. The easier games like LSU or Navy last week, they tend not to F-up.

Picking the combinations is the easy part, avoiding the f-ups like Miami and Duke requires more insight from folks who know those teams. Because those F-ups come from subjective perspectives ie. attitude and focus vs objective outlooks like the Vegas spread.

Biz · Oct 24, 2019

bpoint said:
As far as the Duke vs. UNC spread, I think Vegas was a bit lazy. UNC has a power rating of 74, and Duke 73. Give UNC 3 points for home field and you have UNC -4 exactly. They put no thought in it at all. I see a case for both sides. I like how UNC fights and never gives up. And I like how Duke recovered from getting destroyed by Wake last year. This game is all about the psychology of the players, and maybe not who the best team is. It seems like there would be easier games on the board than this.

Vegas isn't lazy and they put plenty of thought into this. You don't handle millions of dollars and just toss out lines without knowing what number you put out.

Lines aren't put out as game predictors, they are put out using Pwr Ratings and other factors to theoretically get close to an even handle on both sides. They let the market determine who they think is the better wager.

The line is where its supposed to be.

Skeeter123 · Oct 24, 2019

Biz said:
Vegas isn't lazy and they put plenty of thought into this. You don't handle millions of dollars and just toss out lines without knowing what number you put out.

Lines aren't put out as game predictors, they are put out using Pwr Ratings and other factors to theoretically get close to an even handle on both sides. They let the market determine who they think is the better wager.

The line is where its supposed to be.

They make mistakes...you can’t tell me the line is where it’s supposed to be in the TCU/Texas game. It opened at TCU -2.5, and is now Texas -1 with 80% or more of the action on Texas.

They try to get even action across the board because it limits their risk, but they don’t always set it up for that. Texas should’ve opened at -2 or 3, assuming they wanted even action on that game.

Just my opinion though.

GL

Codebreaker · Oct 24, 2019

For Tonight only, Teasing SMU down 7 to -6.5 and teasing the over down to 57.5. If Houston lights it up tonight SMU will be right with them. At 7-0 can SMU have a let down? Sure, they are due for a stinker game. lets just hope this is not the one.

Biz · Oct 26, 2019

Skeeter123 said:
They make mistakes...you can’t tell me the line is where it’s supposed to be in the TCU/Texas game. It opened at TCU -2.5, and is now Texas -1 with 80% or more of the action on Texas.

They try to get even action across the board because it limits their risk, but they don’t always set it up for that. Texas should’ve opened at -2 or 3, assuming they wanted even action on that game.

Just my opinion though.

GL

In a big game like Texas/TCU they know exactly what they are doing. Pinnacle opened it Texas -1.5, TCU wasn't the favorite at open. Texas getting most of the bets and money, the line just flipped to TCU -1.5.

You know why the line didn't open Texas -3?? Because the line makers knew what they were doing, and didn't want to leave themselves open to liability after TCU money comes in. The Power Ratings suggested Texas should have been a bigger favorite, but the line came out shorter. Why is that??

Agreed, they would like even action....but they also take a stand on games.

I've been on TCU from the start, grabbed +1.5.

GL today. Just my 2C

Biz · Oct 26, 2019

TCU wins by 10.

Maybe a Sun Belt team gets a line a bit off, or some other small conference school. Its not gonna happen in one of the most heavily bet games of the afternoon. Line makers knew exactly what they were doing with this line.

Biz · Oct 26, 2019

Regarding the line that started this discussion, Virginia -4. They won by 3 and didn't cover. The line was basically spot on.

bookiereport · Oct 26, 2019

Biz said:
In a big game like Texas/TCU they know exactly what they are doing. Pinnacle opened it Texas -1.5, TCU wasn't the favorite at open. Texas getting most of the bets and money, the line just flipped to TCU -1.5.

You know why the line didn't open Texas -3?? Because the line makers knew what they were doing, and didn't want to leave themselves open to liability after TCU money comes in. The Power Ratings suggested Texas should have been a bigger favorite, but the line came out shorter. Why is that??

Agreed, they would like even action....but they also take a stand on games.

I've been on TCU from the start, grabbed +1.5.

GL today. Just my 2C

exactly

Codebreaker · Oct 26, 2019

Just like the Mich/ND game tonight. Mich -2 was never going to last. ND +1 was where I jumped on Mich +8 with tease. Not going to cash in on huge ML parlay tonight, but still having very nice night. Thanks to everyone who contributes ideas.

Biz · Oct 26, 2019

Great discussion Codebreaker. GL with the rest of your action

Week 9 jump on there ASAP

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