I think lines are inflated due to the legal sports betting being allowed now. I believe books made some adjustments this season with anticipation of a lot more bets being placed without much thought, more on a whim bets. I think we also are seeing some favorites that normally wouldn’t be favored.
Gabe,
Great question, and while I may not have the definitive answer you’re looking for, instead, I’ll offer this,
1) The majority of the playing public leans with the chalk, or the favorites, and overs.
2) From week 1 throughout the playoffs, you’ll find most home teams are favored in almost every week depending on the team. Typically around 10 weekly with bye weeks and teams that just suck ass.
3) The oddsmakers are some of the best people at doing their jobs, even if we don’t like them, we need to respect them. They know from the first thing I listed above how this majority will likely play. So with that, recognizing a team that may only be about a 3-4 point chalk (or more), they’ll bump that line upwards into the 6.5-7 range. Where we the players get caught at is, seeing that magic number of 6.5 or 7 as a home favorite seems very doable from a wagering aspect as 7 points to us is 1 touchdown, or simply just 1 score. The hardest thing for me is trying to figure that one out, as I refuse to play home chalks at those numbers. In fact, I’m more apt to play the dog, as they don’t necessarily have to win, but just keep it close.
4) Here’s something for you to attempt because I do this for myself. Come 1 pm next Sunday after the games have kicked off, take a look ahead to the following weeks matchups without any spreads being posted and ask yourself, what line would you feel comfortable in taking the home team and then the road team. For example, and I’ll use the Cardinals/Giants game as it was first on the board, what line would you have bet the Giants at and then what points would it have been for you to take the Cardinals at? Generally “the middle” of those numbers will roughly be where the oddsmakers have their line set. So basically I’m looking for a disparity between what I have and what they have posted.
5) Very important here, you’re not expected to win. Sorry, but Vegas wouldn’t be what it is if we all won every week. Who would’ve thought last week the plays were on Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami and the NY Jets? So in other words, if you can sit down at 1 pm after you’ve made your wagers for the day and feel very good with your selections, you’re likely going to lose on the day. Again, the key is finding the true values here in road teams, and especially road dogs that can give you a good shot at covering or winning straight up. Divisional match-ups tend to be tighter and closer played more-so as non-divisional games.
Ive been doing this since my college days and realize nothing is ever going to be 100% out there, and/or there’s no such thing as a lock bet, but playing high percentage system plays has helped throughout the years for myself and with what I put in my threads.
Going to stop here, as I’m notorious for writing books or novellas.
Stay crispy my friend,
Eddie Rebel
Great question, and while I may not have the definitive answer you’re looking for, instead, I’ll offer this,
1) The majority of the playing public leans with the chalk, or the favorites, and overs.
2) From week 1 throughout the playoffs, you’ll find most home teams are favored in almost every week depending on the team. Typically around 10 weekly with bye weeks and teams that just suck ass.
3) The oddsmakers are some of the best people at doing their jobs, even if we don’t like them, we need to respect them. They know from the first thing I listed above how this majority will likely play. So with that, recognizing a team that may only be about a 3-4 point chalk (or more), they’ll bump that line upwards into the 6.5-7 range. Where we the players get caught at is, seeing that magic number of 6.5 or 7 as a home favorite seems very doable from a wagering aspect as 7 points to us is 1 touchdown, or simply just 1 score. The hardest thing for me is trying to figure that one out, as I refuse to play home chalks at those numbers. In fact, I’m more apt to play the dog, as they don’t necessarily have to win, but just keep it close.
4) Here’s something for you to attempt because I do this for myself. Come 1 pm next Sunday after the games have kicked off, take a look ahead to the following weeks matchups without any spreads being posted and ask yourself, what line would you feel comfortable in taking the home team and then the road team. For example, and I’ll use the Cardinals/Giants game as it was first on the board, what line would you have bet the Giants at and then what points would it have been for you to take the Cardinals at? Generally “the middle” of those numbers will roughly be where the oddsmakers have their line set. So basically I’m looking for a disparity between what I have and what they have posted.
5) Very important here, you’re not expected to win. Sorry, but Vegas wouldn’t be what it is if we all won every week. Who would’ve thought last week the plays were on Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami and the NY Jets? So in other words, if you can sit down at 1 pm after you’ve made your wagers for the day and feel very good with your selections, you’re likely going to lose on the day. Again, the key is finding the true values here in road teams, and especially road dogs that can give you a good shot at covering or winning straight up. Divisional match-ups tend to be tighter and closer played more-so as non-divisional games.
Ive been doing this since my college days and realize nothing is ever going to be 100% out there, and/or there’s no such thing as a lock bet, but playing high percentage system plays has helped throughout the years for myself and with what I put in my threads.
Going to stop here, as I’m notorious for writing books or novellas.
Stay crispy my friend,
Eddie Rebel
20-30 years ago, you would go to NFL games and the seats were right on top of the field and 95% of the fans there would root for the home team.
Go to a game now, the seats are FAR from the field and due to secondary markets, half the crowd roots for the visiting team (exceptions apply).
There is very limited home field advantage these days
Go to a game now, the seats are FAR from the field and due to secondary markets, half the crowd roots for the visiting team (exceptions apply).
There is very limited home field advantage these days
Great post and good to see you still around. There are still some of us around here still trying to improve our craft and make money rather than being drama queens who want to argue all the time. DIVISONAL unders is where I like to look start, not always because some teams have horrific defenses but DIV unders are good imo.
Thank you for the post my man!
Home team players got to get all their peeps tickets to the game nowadays. Plus make plans for after the game. Distractions.
