Saturday Service Play Thread 10/26/2019

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Sharp Totals Club (7-1 on 3* Totals for Season)

3* TOM Liberty/Rutgers Under 45.5
 

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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 26 2019 7:30PM
208 Michigan 1.0(-110) William Hill vs 207 Notre Dame triple-dime bet

Analysis: Jim Harbaugh is 0-4 SU vs Michigan St and Ohio St at home but is 28-0 SU vs everyone else. The Wolverines were really impressive last week at Penn St (much to our dismay) as down 21-0 early, they rallied and almost forced OT. Even though they lost, we think they should come away confident from that performance. To us the match-ups favor the home team. In order to beat Michigan’s defense, you need to be able to beat their press man coverage. Penn St had an elite speed guy in WR KJ Hamler last week, Ohio St had multiple guys last year. ND simply doesn’t have that kind of play-maker at RB or WR this year. Also, on the other side, ND’s defense really struggled vs USC’s WR’s in their last game and now face another talented WR corps. Michigan at home vs Notre Dame is on a 7-1 SU run with an average win by 12.4 ppg. The only negative here is that Notre Dame is off a bye. Still, at “+1” we have the right side in our opinion. Remember, UM was laying 3 in South Bend last year (meaning they would’ve been around -9 or -10 at home). Have these teams changed 10-plus points since then? We don’t think so.
 

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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 26 2019 3:30PM
162 Michigan St. 6.5(-110) Westgate vs 161 Penn St. single-dime bet

Analysis: A great situational spot for Michigan St here as they are off a bye taking on a Penn St team off a dramatic, “White Out” win over Michigan and a physical game vs Iowa the week before (both prime-time ABC games). Penn St was handled in the final 40 minutes of Michigan game after taking a 21-0 lead in the 2Q. We feel Penn St is a little overrated as they are 2-0 SU the last two weeks but were -134 yards vs Michigan and -62 yards vs Iowa. Michigan St is 5-1 SU/ATS vs Penn State as of late with an average cover by 8.5 ppg! Also note that Michigan St has caught Penn St off big games vs Ohio St the last 2 years and pulled outright upsets.
 

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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 26 2019 7:30PM
209 Arizona St. -3.5(-110) Westgate vs 210 UCLA double-dime bet

Analysis: We’ll back the Sun Devils off the worst loss of the Herm Edwards tenure last week. The Utes ended Arizona State’s modern-era record streak of 125 games with more than 10 points. The last time the Sun Devils were held under double-digits was a 28-0 loss to Southern California in 2008. On the other side, UCLA took advantage of a Stanford team that announced they would be starting their 3rd string QB less than 24 hours before the game. UCLA dominated with 20-11 first down and 455-198 yard edges including 263-55 on the ground. However, the Bruins are still No. 112 in yards per play differential while Arizona St is No. 47. Keep in mind, two of UCLA’s best performances this season came vs back-up QB’s.
 

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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 26 2019 12:00PM
110 Purdue -9.5(-110) Westgate vs 109 Illinois double-dime bet

Analysis: We like Purdue here as they’ve clearly turned the corner in the last couple of games (despite all the injuries). First, they crushed Maryland 40-14 as 4-point dogs and then last week nearly upset Iowa as 17.5-point dogs (only lost by 6 and only out-gained by 2). Purdue QB Jack Plummer was 30 of 50 for 327 yards and 2 TD’s. Frosh WR David Bell had a career-high 13 catches for 197 yards. On the other side, we’re fading Illinois off the biggest upset of 2019 so far (won outright as 30.5-point dogs vs Wisconsin). But we’re actually fading a team that has had four misleading finals in a row. First, the Illini lost by only 4 to Nebraska despite getting out-gained by 375 yards (were +3 TO’s). Then Illinois lost by 23 to Minnesota but both of Illinois’ TD’s were defensive scores. Two weeks ago, Illinois trailed Michigan 28-0 before the Wolverines fell asleep and then last week Illinois had a 2% win probability late in the game, but managed the big upset.
 

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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 26 2019 10:30PM
153 Washington St. 14.0(-110) Westgate vs 154 Oregon single-dime bet

Analysis: Washington St is 9-0 ATS vs Oregon this decade with an average cover of 16.3 ppg. Both teams come in off wins. Note that Washington St head coach Mike Leach said after last week’s game vs Colorado, “I think we are emerging defensively. We simplified some things but we are still kind of coming together there a little bit, honestly. I think the defense has some of its best football ahead of us.” Meanwhile, that vaunted Ducks’ defense that allowed four touchdowns all season gave up three in the first half to Washington and the Ducks were extremely fortunate to come back and win that game. Oregon has USC on deck and have a commanding lead in the Pac-12 North so they could be a little lax here.
 
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+EV: CFB 4u: 207 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1.5 -110 (Saturday, October 26th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 144 Wyoming Cowboys -13.5 -105 (Saturday, October 26th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 141 California Golden Bears +21.5 -108 (Saturday, October 26th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 135 Syracuse Orange +10.5 -108 (Saturday, October 26th)
 

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Barrett Sallee

PENN ST. -6.5
PENN ST. @ MICHIGAN ST. | 10/26 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:22 PM
The world got a glimpse of the Sean Clifford-to-K.J. Hamler connection last week, and running back Noah Cain has provided much-needed balance to the Penn State offense. Michigan State is known for defense but has given up 28.3 points per game to Big Ten opponents. This game will get sideways in the second half and James Franklin's crew will easily cover.

22-12-2 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +879
3-0 IN LAST 3 MICHST ATS PICKS | +300

3-0 IN LAST 3 PSU ATS PICKS | +300


NOTRE DAME +1
NOTRE DAME @ MICHIGAN | 10/26 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:16 PM
The Fighting Irish have averaged 7.42 yards per play in October and have had two weeks to prepare for a reeling Wolverines team that struggles to move the ball consistently and has ball security issues. The Fighting Irish are tied for 13th in the nation in takeaways with 14, and Michigan has given away the ball 14 times -- tied for 109th in the nation. Ian Book will play smart while Shea Patterson will continue his erratic play. Notre Dame will win outright, but take the points if you want.

22-12-2 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +879
2-1 IN LAST 3 MICH ATS PICKS | +86

3-2 IN LAST 5 ND ATS PICKS | +78


TEXAS -1
TEXAS @ TCU | 10/26 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:14 PM
The Longhorns defense has been historically bad this year, but it's not like the Horned Frogs have been lighting it up on offense in October (347.5 yards per game). The Oklahoma loss is the only game this season in which the Texas offense gained fewer than 427 yards on offense. Which team do you trust more in a shootout, Texas or TCU? Hook 'em.

22-12-2 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +879
3-0 IN LAST 3 TCU ATS PICKS | +300
 

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GREG SHAKER | CFB SIDESAT, 10/26/19 - 3:30 PM
203 Auburn 11.5 (-110) Southpoint vs 204 LSU
double-dime bet
Analysis:
‰This number is too high for what history tells us about this game. Let's not forget that Auburn has the #20 Defense in the land. Lean Under here but love these points. Last 3 games have been decided by 1, 4, and 5.

Pick Made: Oct 22 2019 7:17AM PST



GREG SHAKER | CFB SIDESAT, 10/26/19 - 3:30 PM
162 Michigan St. 7.0 (-110) BetOnline vs 161 Penn St.
double-dime bet
Analysis:
You may have to buy to 7 but this is a 2* Play at 4.5 or better. Great spot for the Spartans as they catch PSU‰ off the Michigan win and are off the bye. Other reasons as well..

Pick Made: Oct 22 2019 9:17AM PST



GREG SHAKER | CFB SIDESAT, 10/26/19 - 2:30 PM
149 W. Kentucky 5.5 (-110) Pinnacle vs 150 Marshall
double-dime bet
Analysis:
Quick and easy here. We simply don't understand this number and perhaps it is all about re†putation. The Hilltoppers are the better team..Let's Play..

Pick Made: Oct 23 2019 2:38PM PST




 

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GREG SHAKER | CFB TOTALSAT, 10/26/19 - 7:30 PM
156 Fresno St. / 155 Colorado St. Over 55.0 Southpoint
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
This number has actually dropped of the open of 59 and the reason is pretty simple. There are a lot of Under Trends for this game between these two teams Head to Head and there are some other Under Trends as well that don't amount to a hill of beans. There are a number of reasons why we love the OVER and most of those we don't discuss as doing so would diminish the edge that we have established at the books. We do have a CSU Team that possesses HIGH PACE. In fact they are ranked #35 overall in Most Offensive Plays this season. They also have a very strong offensive squad at #23 Total Offensive Yards in the country. They do NOT have a favorable defense tho�ugh and Fresno is likely to score a ton. In fact the Bulldogs are 14.5 point favorites at this writing and I promise you it is not because of their #58 Ranked D. All 3 Models love this play, we do too and we would play far beyond the current number for 3*. Get your best number and let's Play..


Greg Shaker's 3* NFL Max Bet is Ready to Go!


Pick Made: Oct 24 2019 6:01AM PST


GREG SHAKER | CFB TOTALSAT, 10/26/19 - 7:00 PM
196 Kansas / 195 Texas Tech Under 65.0 Bookmaker
dime bet
Analysis:
€1* Play at your best number..

Pick Made: Oct 24 2019 6:02AM PST



GREG SHAKER | CFB TOTALSAT, 10/26/19 - 7:30 PM
208 Michigan / 207 Notre Dame Under 52.0 Westgate
double-dime bet
Analysis:
Both teams top 30 Defenses, Michigan comes in at #10. History of UNDERS in this series, other factors including all 3 Models agreeing with us. We have waited for this number to go up and I think i�t is time to play now. Sometimes I am wrong about that but not often. Get your best number..

Pick Made: Oct 24 2019 6:06AM PST




 

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GREG SHAKER | CFB SIDESAT, 10/26/19 - 7:30 PM
208 Michigan 1.0 (-110) Southpoint vs 207 Notre Dame
double-dime bet
Analysis:
Better team right NOW, better spot with the offenses fi�nally clicking. Defense will win this game IMO and we have the best one. Home team in this series has been money..

Pick Made: Oct 24 2019 6:07AM PST






 

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+EV: CFB 4u: 200 Ohio State Buckeyes -14 -105 (Saturday, October 26th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 187 Texas Longhorns PK -105 (Saturday, October 26th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 112 Army Black Knights -10 -105 (Saturday, October 26th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 130 Buffalo Bulls -2.5 -120 (Buy 1/2 Point) (Saturday, October 26th)
 

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