Sunday Service Play Thread 11/03/2019

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Let's go Brandon!
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+EV: NFL 2u: 474 NE/BAL un45 -102 (Sunday, November 3rd)
+EV: NFL 3u: 469 CLE/DEN ov38.5 -110 (Sunday, November 3rd)
+EV: NFL 2u: 474 Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (Sunday, November 3rd)
+EV: NFL 3u: 471 GB/LAC ov47 -104 (Sunday, November 3rd)
+EV: NFL 3u: 463 IND/PIT ov42.5 -105 (Sunday, November 3rd)
+EV: NFL 2u: 455 TEN/CAR ov41 -117 (Sunday, November 3rd)
+EV: NFL 3u: 458 CHI/PHI un43 -103 (Sunday, November 3rd)
+EV: NFL 2u: 463 Indianapolis Colts +1 -105 (Sunday, November 3rd)
 

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Mike Tierney


CLEVELAND -3
CLEVELAND @ DENVER | 11/03 | 4:25 PM EST
YESTERDAY 9:31 PM
While Denver might not miss under-performing QB Joe Flacco (neck), its contingency plan seems shaky. Stepping in is third-year backup Brandon Allen, who has yet to take a regular-season snap. The offense was horrid enough with the veteran Flacco, so Allen slides into a challenging situation. Cleveland’s offense has been blah, too, but it wields more star power. QB Baker Mayfield won’t see much of a pass rush, partly because DE Bradley Chubb (ACL) bowed out for the year in Week Four.


9-5 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +354
10-8 IN LAST 18 CLE ATS PICKS | +106




MINNESOTA -1
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY | 11/03 | 1:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 9:29 PM
This spread could creep up to three points or higher if Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) sits. He has not been ruled out but just a two-week rehab seems overly optimistic for the ailment. Even if he plays, the hotter QB will be Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, who has completed 75 percent-plus in four of his last five outings. The Vikings are refreshed from a bye, and they beat the Chiefs three years ago after an off week. All three of Kansas City's straight-up losses have transpired at home.


9-5 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +354
8-1 IN LAST 9 KC ATS PICKS | +685


5-2 IN LAST 7 MIN ATS PICKS | +284
 

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R.J. White


CLEVELAND -3
CLEVELAND @ DENVER | 11/03 | 4:25 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:27 PM
The worst part of the Browns' schedule is over after consecutive games against the Rams, Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks and Patriots, five teams with a combined 31-7 record. That means this is the low point of Cleveland's stock, and as such we're getting them at a favorable line against a Broncos team that has no reason to fight with Brandon Allen at quarterback. Even if their defense (fifth in points per drive allowed) has another good game here, the Browns offense only needs to get to 17 to expect a cover, something they should accomplish with a run-based approach.


28-22 IN LAST 50 NFL PICKS | +351
10-5-1 IN LAST 16 CLE ATS PICKS | +460


5-1 IN LAST 6 DEN ATS PICKS | +390





OVER 50.5
DETROIT @ OAKLAND | 11/03 | 4:05 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:21 PM
Neither of these defenses has played well at all this year, with both ranking in the bottom five of points allowed per drive. Detroit's one good defensive game on the scoreboard (a 13-10 win over the Chargers) still involved them allowing 424 yards. The one thing the Lions do well is pass the ball (top five in net yards per attempt on offense), and that's the Raiders' biggest weakness, as they rank 28th in net yards allowed per pass attempt and have given up a league-worst 19 passing touchdowns. That tells me we should expect to see a higher-scoring game in this one.


16-11 IN LAST 27 NFL O/U PICKS | +389
9-7 IN LAST 16 DET O/U PICKS | +127





N.Y. JETS -3
N.Y. JETS @ MIAMI | 11/03 | 1:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:12 PM
Despite the chaos in the locker room following a trade deadline where it sounds like multiple stars were available but only one dealt, the Jets should have an easy time wit the Dolphins here. While they've been bad, they haven't sunk to the level of the Dolphins, a team that has lost all but one game by double digits (and was behind 17-3 entering the fourth quarter of that outlier). Now Miami has a short turnaround after losing 27-14 despite taking a 14-0 lead to start the game. I can't see them winning this game, so I'm laying the relatively small number with the road team.


28-22 IN LAST 50 NFL PICKS | +351
14-11-2 IN LAST 27 NYJ ATS PICKS | +202





OVER 46.5
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE | 11/03 | 9:30 AM EST
YESTERDAY 5:56 PM
These two teams played a 13-12 grind of a game early in the season, but here's why this week will be different. That was Gardner Minshew's first start, and the Jacksonville offense has been much better since, scoring 26+ in four of their last five games (with big yardage numbers to back it up). The Texans have seen their last four games go over 50 points as their offense keeps rolling while their defense falls apart. The injury to J.J. Watt surely won't help Houston's defense play any better, so I'm expecting a lot of points for the London crowd in this one.


16-11 IN LAST 27 NFL O/U PICKS | +389
3-0 IN LAST 3 JAC O/U PICKS | +300





GREEN BAY -3
GREEN BAY @ L.A. CHARGERS | 11/03 | 4:25 PM EST
YESTERDAY 5:40 PM
I think the Packers' overall market value is a little inflated thanks to their favorable first-half schedule stacked with home games, but they aren't exactly headed into the mouth of the lion in this one. In fact, Packers fans could take over the Chargers' soccer stadium in this one, making it even harder for a home team still beset by injuries. They've scored more than 20 just once since Week 1, while Green Bay has scored 27 or more in five of their last six (and 23 in their 'bad' performance). Green Bay should be able to throw all over a poor Chargers pass D (27th in net yards per attempt) and cruise to a win.


28-22 IN LAST 50 NFL PICKS | +351
29-5 IN LAST 34 GB ATS PICKS | +2345
 

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Stephen Oh


DATA SCIENTIST
1:02 AM
SEATTLE -6
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE | 11/03 | 4:05 PM EST
Jameis Winston is a turnover machine and I expect the Seahawks to capitalize at home. In my simulations, Seattle is winning by double digits. Lay the points.


7-3 IN LAST 10 NFL PICKS | +369
5-0-1 IN LAST 6 SEA ATS PICKS | +500


5-2-1 IN LAST 8 TB ATS PICKS | +284
 

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R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 5:56 PM


OVER 46.5
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE | 11/03 | 9:30 AM EST
These two teams played a 13-12 grind of a game early in the season, but here's why this week will be different. That was Gardner Minshew's first start, and the Jacksonville offense has been much better since, scoring 26+ in four of their last five games (with big yardage numbers to back it up). The Texans have seen their last four games go over 50 points as their offense keeps rolling while their defense falls apart. The injury to J.J. Watt surely won't help Houston's defense play any better, so I'm expecting a lot of points for the London crowd in this one.


16-11 IN LAST 27 NFL O/U PICKS | +389
3-0 IN LAST 3 JAC O/U PICKS | +300




Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
MON 10/28


HOUSTON -2
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE | 11/03 | 9:30 AM EST
This spread looks light by about three points, which is why I played the Texans. Perhaps the lower number is because J.J. Watt is out for the season, and WR Will Fuller is questionable, or maybe it’s because the Jaguars play at London often and are kind of the home team, but those reasons might equate to a one-point edge for the Jaguars. The Texans should still be favored by at least three points. Back the Texans to get the cover.


5-3 IN LAST 8 NFL ATS PICKS | +161
8-2-1 IN LAST 11 HOU ATS PICKS | +580
 

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Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 3 2019 8:20PM
474 BAL 3.5(-117) Pinnacle vs 473 NEP double-dime bet

Analysis: THURSDAY Football Update: LEAN AZ

NOTE STRONG LEAN at +10.5


STrong lean PROP: Kittle OVER 71 reception yards


Thursday
… Sf AZ -10, 42.5
LEAN AZ +10

49ers Offense: Simply HAS to regress with Injuries on Offense:
Both Tackles likely Out: Joe Staley is Doubtful……
Fback OUT (Juszczyk)
RB Cluster Injuries: Breida and Mostert both Questionable

49ers RUSH numbers are already declining with the injuries:

1[SUP]st[/SUP] 4 games:
200 yards/gm (5.2 avg rush)
Yards: 98 (32) , 259 (42), 168(40), 275 (40)
Last 3 games: 99 (41), 137(39), 130 (19)
122 yards/gm (3.7 avg rush)





Just A LEAN:
Rookie Head Coaches have struggled On Short Weeks
13-21 ATS in their 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Thursday Game
Makes Sense: Unique Schedule favors coaches who have faced it before

AND:
Concerns about Az being ULTRA Aggressive:
Az went for it 4[SUP]th[/SUP] an 1 from own 30 3Q Down 4 Vs. New Orl
Az playing “to win” will this make it harder to cover?

SF Double Revenge
In Fact SF has not beaten Az since 2014!
Extra Incentive for the double digit favorite
 

Let's go Brandon!
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Newsletter Year to Date Records and Picks

Confidential Kick-Off
11* (4-4) UAB
10* (18-19) Air Force, Hawaii, Jacksonville, Detroit
o/u (6-9) Wash/Buffalo u36.5, NE/Balt u44.5

Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (26-19-2) App St, Baylor, Navy, Notre Dame, WKU
NFL Best Bets (13-11-0) (partial record)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NCAA
5* (3-5-1) Utah
4* (3-6) SMU
3* (6-3) USC
Upset pick (5-4) BYU
Betcha Didn't Know (5-8) Tennessee (NFL)
Awesome Angle (4-4-1) Washington (NFL)
Incredible Stat (4-4) Green Bay

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NFL

5* (4-3-1) Detroit
4* (2-6) Minnesota
3* (3-5) Tennessee

Pointwise NCAA
1* (6-11) Auburn, Michigan
2* (3-6) Kansas
3* (2-7) Oregon St
4* (9-9) BC, BGSU
5* (13-5) Utah, Baylor

Pointwise NFL
3* (5-3) NE
4* (11-5) Houston, Chicago
5* (7-8-1) Detroit, KC

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (5-3) Ark St
3* (8-10) FIU, Michigan
2* (10-8) Pitt, Georgia
Underdog Play of the Week (4-5) TCU
Tech Play of the Week (3-5) Cincy
Revenge Play of the Week (3-6) BC
Situational Play of the Week (3-2)
Series Play of the Week (4-1) Ark St

Power Sweep NFL
4* (4-4) Oakland
3* (5-3) GB
2* (5-3) Tampa
NFL System play (6-3) Wash
4* Pro Angle (5-3) GB
3* o/u play (5-3) Chi/Philly Under

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (6-6-1) BYU, Washington
2* (15-14-1) Virginia Tech, WKU, Kansas

Powers' Picks NFL
3* (3-5) Tampa
2* (11-5) Jacksonville, Philly

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-1)
NCAA Best Bets (21-11) USC, CMU, Florida
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0)
NFL Best Bets (11-6) Jacksonville, Philly

Red Sheet
90* (1-0)
89* (5-12) Michigan, BC
88* (20-15-1) Florida, USC, Navy, Miami (NFL)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (2-7) Georgia
NCAA 3* (6-3) Marshall
NFL 4* (3-5) Philly
NFL 3* (4-4) Tampa

Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (2-1)
MTI 4.5* (4-1) Cleveland
MTI 4* (4-4) Eagles/Bears UNDER
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-3-1)
SBB 4* (6-6) LAC, Indy/Pitt UNDER
Cajun NCAA (7-3) Tulsa
Pick 60 Play of the Week (4-4)

Victor King's Totals Tipsheet
3* (5-5) Ravens/Pats OVER
2* (10-5) 49ers/Cards UNDER, Cowboys/Giants UNDER
Team Total of the Week (6-2) Bills OVER 23

Power Plays

NCAA 4.5* (7-7) South Carolina, Michigan
NCAA 4* (14-17-1) Louisiana, Rice
NFL 4* (6-2) Tampa

Gold Sheet

NCAA Key Releases (16-18-2) Troy, BC, USC, Florida
NFL Key Releases (14-10) Jax/Houston Under, Philly, NE
Tech Play (5-4) ULL
 

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Warren Sharp:
pittsburgh 1H u21 0.5U
oakland Over 51 1U

2 team teaser 1U
jax +7.5/indy +7.5

anyone have PGF card and 3% Move?
 

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Goodfella 3* Total (Det/Oak) he usually lays OVER'S ?
Essler 3* (Pats/Balt) ?
Nover 3* (Wash/Buff) ?
Spartan 3* and Dog Play (TBat/Sea)Pack/Chargers ?
 

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Hitmans Circa picks are

Jax +1.5
buf -9.5
eagles -4.5
tb +5.5
min +2—- contest line
 

sdf

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Goodfella 3* Total (Det/Oak) he usually lays OVER'S ?
Essler 3* (Pats/Balt) ?
Nover 3* (Wash/Buff) ?
Spartan 3* and Dog Play (TBat/Sea)Pack/Chargers ?


someone should get MTI instead of these inconsistent touts.....
 

sdf

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Warren Sharp:
pittsburgh 1H u21 0.5U
oakland Over 51 1U

2 team teaser 1U
jax +7.5/indy +7.5

anyone have PGF card and 3% Move?


props so far
Josh Jacobs over 79.5 rush yards to win 0.5 units
D.J. Chark over 69.5 receiving yards to win 1.0 units
 

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Mike Handzelek's 8* Very Early Earlybird

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) - Nov 3, 2019 9:30 AM EST Premium Pick Play Title: Mike's NFL Very Early Earlybird Play Selected: Point Spread: 1.5/-115 Analysis: This game is a heated battle to stay close to Indianapolis for the top spot in the AFC South. The BIG intangible leaning toward Jacksonville has to be the familiarity with adapting to the Greenwich Mean Time Zone (GMT) is usually +5 hours (a 2:30 PM local time start) from their Eastern Standard Time Zone (EST) in Florida. It was +4 hours last night, but since we (USA) turned our clocks back last night, it will be 2:30 PM in London, England for the Jaguars (+5 hours) & a whopping 6 hour difference for the Texans who utilize the Central Standard Time Zone (CST) in Houston. I'm bringing all of this up because this will be the 7 consecutive season Jacksonville (3-1 SU & ATS the last 4) has made the trip & know the surface of Wembley (home of the EPL's Tottenham Hotspur) very well compared to the Texans who are making trip #1 to the United Kingdom. In the earlier matchup @ NRG Stadium in Texas, Jax HC Doug Marrone gambled & lost (13-12) when he went for the win & not the tie (Fournette stopped @ goal line) after a late TD throw by Gardner Minshew (his 1st start). If he didn't, Gardner might have been 5-2 SU heading into this one. Houston's 27-24 win over Oakland wasn't without a price last week. Besides a kick to the left eye to starting QB Deshaun Watson (16/5 TD/INT ratio), the Texans lost 9-year vet & DE J.J. Watt to a shoulder injury. In addition, OLT Laremy Tunsil injured his shoulder (listed as questionable) & might give way to 3rd-year man Roderick Johnson who has seen very limited action thus far. They'll be a matchup problem since the green Johnson or injured Tunsil will be stacked up against DE Yannick Ngakoue (18 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble) whose a force to be reckoned with AND battling for a juicier contract right now. Remember, these Jags held Houston to 13 on their home turf (they average about 27 PPG) without Ngakoue who was out with a hamstring injury. My bottom line says the Jacksonville "D" under Todd Wash knows how to dial up pressure. Rookie DE Josh Allen (7 sacks) & 12-year vet & team leader DE/DT Calais Campbell ( 4 1/2 sacks-listed as questionable) made things difficult for Watson the 1st time around & now get him on grass. How much time will Watson have to throw downfield to DeAndre Hopkins (617 receiving yards, 3 TD's) remains to be seen. The Jaguars (13th overall "D") rank 3rd in sacks with 29. The Texans just cracked the top 20 overall on defense (17 sacks) WITH Watt. I feel there should be less pressure on Minshew (13/2 TD/INT ratio) than in Game 1 that should enable him to hook up with his leading receiver in D.J. Chark, Jr. (660 receiving yards & 6 TD's). The SU win for him rests on ball control & NOT turning the ball over. Minshew is PERFECT SU @ 4-0 when putting out a no-turnover game. I look for RB Leonard Fournette to be more effective than his 47-yard output in Game 1. Here's where we'll play this one. Playing this @ the right number is just as key as playing the right pitcher in baseball. We'll gladly go to Wembley Stadium in London to play the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 8* NFL Very Early Earlybird!
Mike Handzelek's Week 8 NFL Record: 5-0 for 100%
Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 17-10 for a rising 63%
2007-08 Las Vegas Hilton/Westgate NFL Handicapping World Champion
2017-18 & 2018-19 VegasTopDogs.Com NFL Winning Percentage Champ


 

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Supercontest Most Selected, Week 9

2019 WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERCONTEST WEEK 9: 10/29/19 - 11/04/19
OFFICIAL SUPERCONTEST LINES/ODDS FOR WEEK 9
WEEK 9 SUPERCONTEST PICKS BY # OF TEAMS SELECTED


CLE 1257
GB 1251
NE 1130
MIN 1104
TB 1031
 

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