Halfway home NFL. Whose thinking what?

Michelangelo · Nov 6, 2019

Put this in the Offshore Forum to get some thoughts going to help us all with handicapping the second half.

My thoughts:

The Pats had a great defense until they got exposed by a great running team. The Pats were built to stop the pass (Kansas City). But it appears that the two teams who could stand in their Championship way are running teams - Balty, and San Fran. Having said that the Pats have relied on their Defense very heavily over the first half. But the Offense should be better able to carry their weight now that they have a decent TE in Watson, and will be getting much needed help at Left Tackle when Isaiah Wynn returns soon from IR and help at WR when first round draft pick, Kneal Harry, also soon returns from IR.

Cleveland, who I expected to step up to the next level, is a clusterfk. Their QB and two wide receivers are divas who care more about their individual shows than about team winning. And their head coach is incompetent. That is the coach who was brought in to replace a coach, Greg Williams, who actually had these bums performing as a football team. That's on the organization. So at all levels they are idiots.

The Rams are performing worse than most SB losers who generally regress. This regression is bad. They aren't very good. And are unlikely to even make the Playoffs.

San Francisco has gone from a four win team to the SB favorite. That's spectacular. And they are not a flash. THey are tough and solid on both sides of the ball. Their weakness was at WR. They went and got Emmanuel Sanders from Denver. Now looking very complete. A plusses to the management, the coach, and the players.

Lamar Jackson is proving the naysayers wrong. He is a legitimate freak athlete and unique QB who could carry Baltimore a looooong way. The rest of the team is unspectacular. But not their QB.

Some were questioning the Miami strategy of dumping pretty good players for draft choices. If Miami makes the right choices over the next couple of years the Fins just might be positioned for a Tom Brady retirement and AFC East challenge. Tom Flores is actually making this team respectable as the year goes along.

Arizona is moving forward. That Offensive line was pathetic the past few years. It is pretty good right now and Murray looks like he may have a shot at earning the accolades and expectations that come with being the number one pick in the draft. They are another team that can suddenly run the ball.

Special kudos to fill in QBs, Brissett, Bridgewater, Fitzpatrick, Mineshew, Matt Moore, and Kyle Allen. These guys have stepped in and helped their teams forward.

And another special Kudos to DeSean Watson. Despite a crap O line he is excelling.

Whose the worst team in the NFL? Looks like the Jets, Cincy, and Atlanta will fight that out 'till the finish. I'm taking Miami off the list. I actually think they are improving and may surprise a team or two before the season concludes.

What thoughts do you guys have?

Serbone · Nov 7, 2019

Good info, much appreciated.
Well RX posters mostly just post games and then keep tabs on their W-L record if it is +, and disappear for awhile when they lose.
I might add later but IMO one of the most important considerations is the massive injuries, QBs are the most discussed but there are teams that lose 3 of their starting DBs, 2 OL, 2-3 of their top 5 WRs, they matter a lot, too, in handicapping. This time of the year it is critical. Sure, losing some of the deadweight QBs like Cam Newton actually makes the team BETTER!
But overall you have to be on top of the injuries, more than ever...

Michelangelo · Nov 7, 2019

Serbone said:
Good info, much appreciated.
Well RX posters mostly just post games and then keep tabs on their W-L record if it is +, and disappear for awhile when they lose.
I might add later but IMO one of the most important considerations is the massive injuries, QBs are the most discussed but there are teams that lose 3 of their starting DBs, 2 OL, 2-3 of their top 5 WRs, they matter a lot, too, in handicapping. This time of the year it is critical. Sure, losing some of the deadweight QBs like Cam Newton actually makes the team BETTER!
But overall you have to be on top of the injuries, more than ever...

Agree completely, Serbone.

But I find it really hard to distinguish the impact players from the also rans when it comes to the non scoring offensive positions. The line play is essential to impactful offenses and defenses. But it's really hard for me to know what linemen on each team are really vital cogs. So many times linemen are defined by their draft position (in the case of young guys) and the number of Pro Bowls (in the case of older guys), but I find such guidance pretty misleading. Draft choice number and past performance are not necessarily good indicators of present performance. We need better injury info. When I see a list of inactives, for instance, I often don't know how important some of those players listed are.

I find that it really helps if fans of the individual teams track and rate their own linemen. If they are objective that can be the best source of knowledge for us, the bettor. Unfortunately I don't see enough of this type of assessment on this or any other board.

Any help solving the problem you brought up, Serbone, would be really helpful to us all.

Michelangelo · Nov 8, 2019

Nothing to add? We need some different perspectives.

Anybody with local insight would certainly be welcome.

skins85 · Nov 8, 2019

my eyes are on pittsburgh with a nice stretch coming up of winnable games.
after the rams they go browns, bengals, browns, cardinals, bills and jets before finishing up with the ravens.
this team could backdoor it into the playoffs with a schedule like that.

lions are a head scratcher. i want to back them against bad qbs. they have faced mahomes, rogers, rivers, wents and carr this year and given up a lot of points. they get a look at trubisky twice, haskins, and whoever denver has over the next few weeks. i think the defense could look a lot better especially since patricia is a defensive coach i think his team could look a lot better against a lower level of qb talent.

MLB · Nov 8, 2019

I see the Steelers getting into the playoffs. It will come down to that Ravens game but I think they'll find a way to win and get in. Buffalo will go through a 4 game losing streak in the second half and will not control their destiny in week 17.

Michelangelo · Nov 13, 2019

skins85 said:
my eyes are on pittsburgh with a nice stretch coming up of winnable games.
after the rams they go browns, bengals, browns, cardinals, bills and jets before finishing up with the ravens.
this team could backdoor it into the playoffs with a schedule like that.

lions are a head scratcher. i want to back them against bad qbs. they have faced mahomes, rogers, rivers, wents and carr this year and given up a lot of points. they get a look at trubisky twice, haskins, and whoever denver has over the next few weeks. i think the defense could look a lot better especially since patricia is a defensive coach i think his team could look a lot better against a lower level of qb talent.

Good perspectives, guys.

San Fran's weakness got exposed. It is their QB, Jimmy G. 14 TDs against 8 ints is not gonna cut it at a Championship level.

The Lions sure are "a head scratcher". THey are just good enough to suck me into losing bets.

Good points about Pittsburgh. Rudolph seems to be just steady enough to get this team home with 11 TDs vs 4 ints. A big contrast from the QB they are playing this week, Baker Mayfield, who has 9 TDs and 13 turnovers.

Any other perspectives?

Michelangelo · Nov 13, 2019

MLB said:
I see the Steelers getting into the playoffs. It will come down to that Ravens game but I think they'll find a way to win and get in. Buffalo will go through a 4 game losing streak in the second half and will not control their destiny in week 17.

Thanks, MLB. I tried to quote you in the above post but it didn't work.

And I agree that Buff will get exposed for the mediocre team that they really are. It started last week in Cleveland. And may continue in Miami this week. I would have never thought that even possible after the first few games of the season.

RJKiss · Nov 13, 2019

Michelangelo said:
Put this in the Offshore Forum to get some thoughts going to help us all with handicapping the second half.

My thoughts:

The Pats had a great defense until they got exposed by a great running team. The Pats were built to stop the pass (Kansas City). But it appears that the two teams who could stand in their Championship way are running teams - Balty, and San Fran. Having said that the Pats have relied on their Defense very heavily over the first half. But the Offense should be better able to carry their weight now that they have a decent TE in Watson, and will be getting much needed help at Left Tackle when Isaiah Wynn returns soon from IR and help at WR when first round draft pick, Kneal Harry, also soon returns from IR.

Cleveland, who I expected to step up to the next level, is a clusterfk. Their QB and two wide receivers are divas who care more about their individual shows than about team winning. And their head coach is incompetent. That is the coach who was brought in to replace a coach, Greg Williams, who actually had these bums performing as a football team. That's on the organization. So at all levels they are idiots.

The Rams are performing worse than most SB losers who generally regress. This regression is bad. They aren't very good. And are unlikely to even make the Playoffs.

San Francisco has gone from a four win team to the SB favorite. That's spectacular. And they are not a flash. THey are tough and solid on both sides of the ball. Their weakness was at WR. They went and got Emmanuel Sanders from Denver. Now looking very complete. A plusses to the management, the coach, and the players.

Lamar Jackson is proving the naysayers wrong. He is a legitimate freak athlete and unique QB who could carry Baltimore a looooong way. The rest of the team is unspectacular. But not their QB.

Some were questioning the Miami strategy of dumping pretty good players for draft choices. If Miami makes the right choices over the next couple of years the Fins just might be positioned for a Tom Brady retirement and AFC East challenge. Tom Flores is actually making this team respectable as the year goes along.

Arizona is moving forward. That Offensive line was pathetic the past few years. It is pretty good right now and Murray looks like he may have a shot at earning the accolades and expectations that come with being the number one pick in the draft. They are another team that can suddenly run the ball.

Special kudos to fill in QBs, Brissett, Bridgewater, Fitzpatrick, Mineshew, Matt Moore, and Kyle Allen. These guys have stepped in and helped their teams forward.

And another special Kudos to DeSean Watson. Despite a crap O line he is excelling.

Whose the worst team in the NFL? Looks like the Jets, Cincy, and Atlanta will fight that out 'till the finish. I'm taking Miami off the list. I actually think they are improving and may surprise a team or two before the season concludes.

What thoughts do you guys have?

Good analysis. I think one team you didn't mention that could make some noise is Oakland. I think the Week 13 game at KC could go a long way in determining who wins the AFC West. Can you imagine if the Raiders actually get to play a home playoff game in their final season in Oakland?!

My vote for worst team in the league is Cincinnati (their best performance was Week 1, and it's all been all downhill from there)... though the Giants probably aren't much better.

Yiasouj · Nov 13, 2019

I also second the vote that Cinncy might be the worst in the league right now. They looked horrible last week. Most of their numbers came in trash time at the end when the game was way over. This was a bit surprising considering that many were expecting a ravens letdown after beating the Pats and also that Cinncy has been quite a thorn in the ravens side for many years.

Pittsburgh has done a great job of turning things around after what they went through during the offseason and then losing Big Ben. They have shown how well run an organization they really are and how well they have built their team through the draft. Their season could very well hinge on the last game vs. the ravens, but it will in no way shape or form be an easy game, even if the Ravens have nothing to play for. These teams really hate each other.

Ravens o-line has been quite the underrated hero this year after being thought of as a question mark heading in to the season. They are well coached and have stayed healthy. Unfortunately, there is no depth, one injury could easily derail the success. The defense is really starting to gel, but Michael Pierce could miss Houston game. That would be a big blow even though you don't hear his name much. Great run stopper and really pushes the pocket on pass plays although he rarely gets home. I'll keep tabs on what happens during the week.

Don't forget about Seattle, Russell just doesn't seem to lose.

Good luck for the second half, let's make some money

Michelangelo · Nov 13, 2019

RJKiss said:
Good analysis. I think one team you didn't mention that could make some noise is Oakland. I think the Week 13 game at KC could go a long way in determining who wins the AFC West. Can you imagine if the Raiders actually get to play a home playoff game in their final season in Oakland?!

My vote for worst team in the league is Cincinnati (their best performance was Week 1, and it's all been all downhill from there)... though the Giants probably aren't much better.

Good thoughts on Oakland. People laughed at the organization and Gruden when he shipped Khalil Mack to Chicago. Mack is having a very ordinary year after having signed the richest contract in NFL history for a Defensive player. Meanwhile the Raiders got a bounty of picks. Two first rounders. A third rounder. And a sixth rounder. Plus two more conditional picks. Looking now like a HUGE heist for Oakland. And Gruden has this team playing very well now. Integrate those picks and this team is gonna challenge Kansas City as the Chargers and Denver sink into the basement of the Division. Yes, Oakland is indeed a big story this year.

Thanks RJ Kiss for your input.

Michelangelo · Nov 13, 2019

Yiasou j said:
I also second the vote that Cinncy might be the worst in the league right now. They looked horrible last week. Most of their numbers came in trash time at the end when the game was way over. This was a bit surprising considering that many were expecting a ravens letdown after beating the Pats and also that Cinncy has been quite a thorn in the ravens side for many years.

Pittsburgh has done a great job of turning things around after what they went through during the offseason and then losing Big Ben. They have shown how well run an organization they really are and how well they have built their team through the draft. Their season could very well hinge on the last game vs. the ravens, but it will in no way shape or form be an easy game, even if the Ravens have nothing to play for. These teams really hate each other.

Ravens o-line has been quite the underrated hero this year after being thought of as a question mark heading in to the season. They are well coached and have stayed healthy. Unfortunately, there is no depth, one injury could easily derail the success. The defense is really starting to gel, but Michael Pierce could miss Houston game. That would be a big blow even though you don't hear his name much. Great run stopper and really pushes the pocket on pass plays although he rarely gets home. I'll keep tabs on what happens during the week.

Don't forget about Seattle, Russell just doesn't seem to lose.

Good luck for the second half, let's make some money

This is excellent insight into the AFC Central. Thank you, Yiasou, for this input.

seer · Nov 13, 2019

i picked sea> sf nov 3. niners will be good for a futures bet next yr but they arent there yet.
despite norl losing this wk they are my choice to go thru.
kc has andy reid and a crappy run d

futures to win sb:
norl win +650
balt +700

sea win div +250

saints win conf +300

Kaveman · Nov 14, 2019

Michelangelo said:
San Fran's weakness got exposed. It is their QB, Jimmy G. 14 TDs against 8 ints is not gonna cut it at a Championship level.

Yeah, he made some questionable throws the other night. Could easily have had a couple more picks.
Got a problem with Shanahan's decision making in that game, and clock mgmt. the whole year.
They run it three times on that last series, the kicker likely gets a closer kick, and they kill nearly the
entire clock, leaving Seattle no time to set up a FG. A tie would have benefitted SF far more than Seattle.

Michelangelo · Nov 15, 2019

Good points, Kaveman.

Who else?

BLAK_MAMBA · Nov 15, 2019

One team to keep an eye on is the Saints. They lay an egg last week but I don't think that's the whole story of this team. They're getting kamara to get healthy and I still believe that they got the def to get it done. If u got brees and that running game going plus playing in the superdome, it'll tough for anybody to beat them there.

Michelangelo · Nov 15, 2019

Sure can't overlook the Saints, can we Blak Mamba? Curious what you think of them this week in Tampa. Will Kamara join Brees on the field this week?

Dave007inVegas · Nov 16, 2019

Mich. FWIW.

AFC...
Ravens are the class of the AFC. As long as Jackson stays health they'll be playing the Pats
to see who goes to the SB.

Pats are not as good as they have been. Having said that as long as Belichick is the couch and
Brady has Edelman you can't count them out. There is not a corner or corners who can cover Edelman.
I'm not sold on the Pats D. We'll see how they hold up over the 2nd half when the compition gets
gets a little more testy.

Texas will win their division by default. The Titans, Colts and Jags are all a couple of notchs below.

Chiefs will win their division by default also. Denver isn't going anywhere with a rookie QB. The Chargers
aren't going to win with a old QB and the Raiders just might make it as a wild card.

The other wild card might be Steelers only because they have a favorable schedule but Tomlin will find a
way to loose a game or two that he should win like he did against Cleveland. Scratch the Bills, there
remaing schedule is brutal.

NFC..
A hell of a lot more competitive than the AFC.

9ers and Seachickens are going to battle it out. It may come down to the last game.

Saints are the most complete team. Good offense and complimentary defense.

Packers and Viks battle it out for division title. Loser gets the wild card.

Cowboys and Eagles. Eagles have a slight advantage with an easier 2nd half schedule.
Might come down to week 16. [FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]I can't back a Garrett coached team. I don't care what Jones says.[/FONT]

I suppose the Rams and Panthers still have a chance to make some noise but they'll need to pick it up.