Market update
8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
This line opened at different numbers across the market. Some books opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorite while others opened at 4.5. Regardless of the number, the public is heavy on the Chiefs with three-out-of-four bets laying the points. However, throughout the week, sharp action was consistently coming down on the Chargers at +4.5 and +4, which dropped this line down to 4 or even 3.5. But then late Sunday night, we saw sharp buyback hit Kansas City -4, which pushed this line up to 4.5 or 5 where it rests now.
The Chiefs have value as a favorite with a high total (53). High totals benefit favorites as the more expected points scored makes it easier for the favorite to cover the number. But the Chargers have several profitable edges in their favor. Los Angeles is a divisional dog (26-21 ATS, 55% this season). The Chargers also enjoy extra rest having last played on Nov. 7 (Chiefs last played Nov. 10).
The total opened at 53 and two-thirds of bets are taking the over. We've seen some smart money hit the under, dropping it to 52, before it returned to 53, where it sits now. Essentially, we are looking at a relatively sharp line freeze on the under, with books refusing to raise the total despite heavy over betting.
8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
This line opened at different numbers across the market. Some books opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorite while others opened at 4.5. Regardless of the number, the public is heavy on the Chiefs with three-out-of-four bets laying the points. However, throughout the week, sharp action was consistently coming down on the Chargers at +4.5 and +4, which dropped this line down to 4 or even 3.5. But then late Sunday night, we saw sharp buyback hit Kansas City -4, which pushed this line up to 4.5 or 5 where it rests now.
The Chiefs have value as a favorite with a high total (53). High totals benefit favorites as the more expected points scored makes it easier for the favorite to cover the number. But the Chargers have several profitable edges in their favor. Los Angeles is a divisional dog (26-21 ATS, 55% this season). The Chargers also enjoy extra rest having last played on Nov. 7 (Chiefs last played Nov. 10).
The total opened at 53 and two-thirds of bets are taking the over. We've seen some smart money hit the under, dropping it to 52, before it returned to 53, where it sits now. Essentially, we are looking at a relatively sharp line freeze on the under, with books refusing to raise the total despite heavy over betting.
