Mistaflava's College Football Week 13 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2019 Mistaflava CFB Record: 95-85-2 ATS (+41.50 Units)

2019 Mistaflava CFB *Big Plays*: 7-6 ATS (+13.50.Units)


A bit of a rough week last week because I lost both my big plays but otherwise did well and capped games pretty well. Just have to layoff the big plays maybe this week but might throw one in there. Let's see how this goes!


GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK!

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Tuesday, November 19



Eastern Michigan Eagles +4 (10 Units)

The Eastern Michigan Eagles were not my choice of wager last week at Akron because I for some reason assumed the Zips would finally show up but that wasn't the case and Eastern Michigan was able to reel off 42 points in a 42-14 win covering the -17 point spread on the road. That brings them to 5 wins on the season (pre-season predictions had them finishing with 8 wins which is not out of the question yet) and they can clinch a Bowl Game berth tonight with another win. Easier said than done because they have lost five straight games in Dekalb, Illinois but their last time here they led by 14 points in the 4th Quarter, blew that lead and some how lost 30-27 in overtime so at least we know they are competitive. The Eastern Michigan offense has been one of the best in the MAC Conference the last three games averaging 30 points per game on 387.3 total yards of offense and an impressive 6.4 yards per play. Northern Illinois has struggled badly on defense allowing 25.3 points per game (only) but allowing 422.7 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play. In the air, EMU Quarterback Mike Glass is completing 63.2% of his passes the last three games for 8.2 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 133.9. The NIU secondary is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt their last three games. RB Shaq Vann had a monster game last week against Akron and he should have another monster game tonight versus a Huskies defense allowing 209.7 rushing yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry in their last three. Keep in mind EMU has turned the ball over a total of only 2 times their last three games. The Eastern Michigan offense continues to roll tonight.

The Northern Illinois Huskies were supposed to be MAC West Division contenders when the season started but losses to Ball State, Miami-Ohio and Central Michigan ended all those dreams. It's hard to believe they come into their second last game of the season with only 4 wins and needing two wins to make a Bowl Game. They have not missed the Bowl Season since 2016 but the pressure is on Thomas Hammock and his guys. If this comes down to coaching alone I'm taking Eastern Michigan who have been here and done that. I'm also afraid that after almost blowing a lead in Toledo last week the Huskies are in for a big letdown this week. Their offense is nowhere near as explosive as the Eastern Michigan offense in recent games and they come into this game averaging 30 points per game but have done that on only 346.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. Eastern Michigan's defense is not good and they allow 31.3 points per game in their last three games 435.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. This is nothing new for MAC Conference teams in MAC Conference games. The difference for me is offensive efficiency. Northern Illinois struggles to run the ball (a staple in the MAC) and average only 4.0 yards per carry their last three games. Also, both EMU and NIU alllow 200+ rushing yards per game their last three games but the Eagles allow 4.7 yards per carry, the Huskies allow 5.6. That's massive. In the air NIU can really throw it around with their two quarterbacks and average 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Again I'm not vouching for the Eagles defense because they have allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt their last three games but the Northern Illinois passing game averages only 170.7 passing yards per game in their last three, nowhere near as good as EMU who average 239 passing yards per game.

If you haven't learned your lesson the last two weeks I don't know what to say. The MAC Conference midweek #MACAction games can be wild, they can be deceiving and you just have to fine the right angle to play and not get screwed. Here are some interesting stats I dug up. Eastern Michigan is 6-2 ATS in their last eight MAC Conference road games as an underdog of 10 or less points. Their only game of such this year they lost 37-34 at Toledo as a +2.5 point road underdog. Northern Illinois on the other hand are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home MAC Conference games as a favorite of -10 or less. They lost 27-20 to Ball State earlier this season as a -4 point home favorite. Eastern Michigan has covered the spread in 20 of their last 27 road games overall and even have a win at Illinois earlier this year. Northern Illinois is 1-4 ATS in their last five Tuesday Night Games (last week was first cover in a while) and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win. The Road Team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings between these schools and Eastern Michigan is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Dekalb despite losing five straight. If Northern Illinois somehow win it won't be by more than 1-3 points.

Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.


Eastern Michigan 38, Northern Illinois 34






more to come...

Mr. Flava......here's to a solid and profitable week buddy.....BOL tonight, on this with you...……..indy

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Bowling Green Falcons +21 (10 Units)

The Ohio Bobcats were supposed to be runaway favorites to win the MAC East Division before the season started and they were certainly the best team in the Conference on paper but here they stand with 4 wins on the season (kind of reminds me of Northern Illinois) and coming off a crushing home loss to Western Michigan. The loss not only knocked them out of contention to play for the MAC Championship but it also put their Bowl Game eligibility down to the final two games of the season. Having said that, those two games are against the worst teams in the Conference Bowling Green and Akron. They should get the job done. Ohio won both their MAC Conference road games but by only 7.5 points per game at Buffalo and Ball State. The Bobcats offense is pretty explosive with QB Nathan Rourke and several other All Conference players and they come into this game averaging 29.7 points per game on 420.7 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play in their last three games. What might surprise you a little bit is Bowling Green's defense. The team has been awful and the offense has been dreadful but the defense has been alright and are putting up better numbers than the 2017 and 2018 versions. Their run defense is pretty like almost every team in the MAC Conference but I've been impressed with their secondary. The Falcons have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 53% of their passes in the air for 161.3 passing yards per game and those quarterbacks have a QB Rating of only 122.5 (again in the MAC this is pretty good). Their pass rush has yielded 7 sacks in the last three games and they have 4 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries in those games. Don't get me wrong, Ohio will score but as a large favorite on the road they are notorious for bad performances and in a game they will no doubt take lightly I would tread lightly.

The Bowling Green Falcons have been nothing short of a disaster so far in 2019 and I think that was to be expected with a first time Head Coach (Scott Loeffler) inheriting a roster that went 3-9 last season straight up and who had only 12 returning starters. They have good games but then they have really bad games but you have to be encouraged by the fact that Bowling Green has a home win over Toledo this season as a +26.5 point home underdog and they also have a 35-6 win over Akron (the other basement team in the MAC) as a favorite. They got crushed on the road last week but that was against one of the contenders in the Conference. Ohio is not a contender. Offense has been the big issues for Bowling Green as they average a pathetic 3.9 yards per play their last three games for only 272.3 total yards of offense but they've been much better than that at home this season. In Doyt Perry Stadium the Falcons average 25.6 points per game (shocking) and average 392.4 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Ohio's defense on the road this season has allowed 23.5 points per game and have allowed a whopping 430.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.4 yards per play. Bowling Green can make some noise tonight. Their running game is averaging 205.2 rushing yards per home game in 2019 (they have the #59 rushing offense in the Nation) and they face a Bobcats defense that has allowed 222.5 rushing yards per road game on 5.6 yards per carry this season. Wow! Even in the air the Falcons average 187.2 passing yards per home game. The Ohio secondary has been horrendous, hence their loss last week, and their last three opponents have completed 64.8% of their passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. They have 0 interceptions away from home this season which is a welcomed site for Bowling Green who have thrown 13 interceptions this season. I think Bowling Green scores points tonight folks!

If you didn't read anything else I wrote I ask that you read this. OHIO IS 0-5 ATS IN THEIR HISTORY as a Road Favorite of 20+ points. The last time they were favored by 20+ on the road was at Massachusetts in 2012 and they won by only 3 points. The last time they were favored by this much on the road in MAC Conference play was in 2002 and it was at Bowling Green and the Falcons won 72-21 as a +24 point home underdog. How crazy is that? Not saying this is going to happen but the Falcons can at least keep it close against a team who has no business being favored like this on the road. Ohio also comes into this game 1-4 ATS in their last five Tuesday games and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a losing record and have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 11 trips to Bowling Green. Ohio will win and keep Bowl Eligibility alive but all signs points to a Bowling Green cover tonight.

Trend of the Game: Ohio is 0-5 ATS lifetime as a road favorite of 20+ points.


Ohio 31, Bowling Green 24





more to come...

indiana said:

Mr. Flava......here's to a solid and profitable week buddy.....BOL tonight, on this with you...……..indy

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Thanks indy have a great week too bud!

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Wednesday, November 20




Akron Zips +30.5 (10 Units)

I swore up and down after last week that I was done betting on the Akron Zips, the 0-10 ATS Akron Zips after the debacle versus Eastern Michigan where it was over before it even started. I have since circled back after watching all the crazy stuff that happens in the #MACtion midweek games. Something has to give here. There is not much good I can say about the Zips and their season (0-10 SU and ATS) but I will say this. They have been better on the road than at home. They went to Central Michigan and lost by 21 points, the same Central Michigan that might play in the MAC Conference Championship Game and...yeah. Well here is a thing. Their last three games they have averaged only 6.7 points per game on 195.7 total yards of offense and 3.6 yards per play. On the road this season they average 12.4 points per game on 234.4 total yards of offense and 3.7 yards per play. Much better. Not good but better. Protection has been an issue for Akron allowing 4.2 sacks per away game this season but Miami-Ohio's defense has only 5 sacks in 4 home games in 2019. QB Kato Nelson is a capable passer who has 10 TD passes this season and a QB Rating of 121.0 on the year while averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt so hope is not lost now that he is healthy again. Running the ball forget about it. The Zips can't and won't do that (had only 56 rushing yards in last year's game) but I do see Nelson making a couple of touchdown passes to cover this spread.

The Miami Ohio Redhawks are in the MAC Championship Game if they win tonight and that's the bottom line so it's pretty much confirmed they are heading there in a few weeks time. Having said that, once they take an early lead how much are they going to step on the gas? They already beat up on Bowling Green last week 44-3 at home as a -17 point favorite in that game so will there be interested in doing the same here? I'm not so sure about that. The last time they were favored by 30+ points at home was in 2017 against FCS opponent Austin Peay and they won that game 31-10 and that game was also under Chuck Martin as head coach. Funny thing is Miami Ohio was down 17-14 at some point int the 3rd Quarter last year but went nuts and won 41-17. The Redhawks have an explosive offense averaging 30.3 points per game their last three games on 390 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. Having said that, Akron's defense has not been good this season allowing 41 points per game in their last three games but that's because of the offense and the turnovers and the three and outs. Otherwise they have allowed only 373 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play in those games which is decent in the MAC Conference. Miami Ohio runs the ball a lot more than they throw it and the Zips have been run on 55.3 times per game their last three games and allowed only 4.1 yards per carry. That's very solid. The Redhawks actually only throw the ball 21 times per game and average only 11 completions per game for 188.3 passing yards. If Akron is solid against the run again tonight like they have been, this defense has a chance at making stops.

I read something interesting last week. "Anyone who bet on Akron expecting them to finally cover the spread in a game deserves to lose". This is the truth. My bet is not based on this. My bet is based on the fact that Miami Ohio clinches the East with a win so this might be in the bag early and they might play their backups quite a bit in this one. In his tenure as Head Coach here Chuck Martin has been favored by 30+ once and he laid off the gas pedal in that one and won by 21. Also the Zips run defense has been decent and Miami Ohio loves to run the ball. The Road Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and Akron is 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Miami Ohio. This could be it folks. Their first cover of the season and if it happens it's because Miami Ohio took their foot off the gas. I think this is how it plays out.

Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.


Miami Ohio 34, Akron 13




more to come...

MistaFlava said:

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Wednesday, November 20




Akron Zips +30.5 (10 Units)

I swore up and down after last week that I was done betting on the Akron Zips, the 0-10 ATS Akron Zips after the debacle versus Eastern Michigan where it was over before it even started. I have since circled back after watching all the crazy stuff that happens in the #MACtion midweek games. Something has to give here. There is not much good I can say about the Zips and their season (0-10 SU and ATS) but I will say this. They have been better on the road than at home. They went to Central Michigan and lost by 21 points, the same Central Michigan that might play in the MAC Conference Championship Game and...yeah. Well here is a thing. Their last three games they have averaged only 6.7 points per game on 195.7 total yards of offense and 3.6 yards per play. On the road this season they average 12.4 points per game on 234.4 total yards of offense and 3.7 yards per play. Much better. Not good but better. Protection has been an issue for Akron allowing 4.2 sacks per away game this season but Miami-Ohio's defense has only 5 sacks in 4 home games in 2019. QB Kato Nelson is a capable passer who has 10 TD passes this season and a QB Rating of 121.0 on the year while averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt so hope is not lost now that he is healthy again. Running the ball forget about it. The Zips can't and won't do that (had only 56 rushing yards in last year's game) but I do see Nelson making a couple of touchdown passes to cover this spread.

The Miami Ohio Redhawks are in the MAC Championship Game if they win tonight and that's the bottom line so it's pretty much confirmed they are heading there in a few weeks time. Having said that, once they take an early lead how much are they going to step on the gas? They already beat up on Bowling Green last week 44-3 at home as a -17 point favorite in that game so will there be interested in doing the same here? I'm not so sure about that. The last time they were favored by 30+ points at home was in 2017 against FCS opponent Austin Peay and they won that game 31-10 and that game was also under Chuck Martin as head coach. Funny thing is Miami Ohio was down 17-14 at some point int the 3rd Quarter last year but went nuts and won 41-17. The Redhawks have an explosive offense averaging 30.3 points per game their last three games on 390 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. Having said that, Akron's defense has not been good this season allowing 41 points per game in their last three games but that's because of the offense and the turnovers and the three and outs. Otherwise they have allowed only 373 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play in those games which is decent in the MAC Conference. Miami Ohio runs the ball a lot more than they throw it and the Zips have been run on 55.3 times per game their last three games and allowed only 4.1 yards per carry. That's very solid. The Redhawks actually only throw the ball 21 times per game and average only 11 completions per game for 188.3 passing yards. If Akron is solid against the run again tonight like they have been, this defense has a chance at making stops.

I read something interesting last week. "Anyone who bet on Akron expecting them to finally cover the spread in a game deserves to lose". This is the truth. My bet is not based on this. My bet is based on the fact that Miami Ohio clinches the East with a win so this might be in the bag early and they might play their backups quite a bit in this one. In his tenure as Head Coach here Chuck Martin has been favored by 30+ once and he laid off the gas pedal in that one and won by 21. Also the Zips run defense has been decent and Miami Ohio loves to run the ball. The Road Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and Akron is 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Miami Ohio. This could be it folks. Their first cover of the season and if it happens it's because Miami Ohio took their foot off the gas. I think this is how it plays out.

Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.


Miami Ohio 34, Akron 13




more to come...

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I think your comments are awesome...but what happened to Bowling Green last night scares the $hit out of me! Akron ouch! But I like it!!!! Go Zipper Heads!!!!

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Toledo Rockets +9.5 (10 Units)

I can almost see it right now. Toledo is going to go down 21-0 nothing early in this game or they are going to go up 21-0 early in this game. Typical #MACtion midweek games and we always see it with the Rockets. Toledo have already clinched Bowl Eligibility so that's out of play in this game but if they win out tonight there is a chance their game against Central Michigan next week could be for the MAC West Division spot in the MAC Conference Championship Game because they already beat Western Michigan but so much would have to happen for this to be a possibility. Neither CMU or WMU play tonight so the Rockets won't know their fate and their effort should be there. Toledo has always been that team that when the betting public is on them you fade and vice versa. Tonight the public is on Buffalo. The Rockets come into this game averaging 33.3 points per game in their last three games on 501.3 total yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play. Buffalo's defense has been pretty good as of late but they allow 21.3 points per game in their last three games. This should be an interesting matchup because the Bulls are very good against the run (2.6 yards per carry in last three) and Toledo averages 290.7 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry their last three but look at the matchup last season. The Rockets ran for 158 yards on 5.4 yards per carry. QB Eli Peters is comfortable with this offense and has been tremendous last three games completing 61.7% of his passes for 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 6 TD passes and 1 INT. He has been sacked only 3 times playing behind a tremendous O-Line and that should hamper Buffalo's defensive efforts as they have 14 sacks in their last three games and allow 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Toledo will score points tonight.

The Buffalo Bulls are coming off a horrific 30-27 loss last week at Kent State in a game that could cost them a shot at a spot in the MAC Conference game. They were up huge (27-6) in that game and Kent State stormed back and scored the final 24 points to win in dramatic fashion as a +6.5 point underdog. Buffalo backers had to feel sick in that game which is why I'm surprised so many are dipping back into the pool and backing them again. The Bulls have been one of the better teams in the MAC this season but losses to Miami Ohio, Ohio and Kent State have knocked them out contention. Notice all three of those teams are from the State of Ohio? For as many points as they score per game the Buffalo offense is not even that good. They score a ton of points because their defense is tremendous and has forced turnovers all season to put them in great spots. Although they average 34.8 points per game at home this season the Bulls offense have managed only 346.8 total yards of offense per game and only 5.0 yards per play. This is shocking for a team putting up such big points per game numbers but it's a reality. The Toledo defense has been torched on so many occasions this season and on the road they've been a mess but their last three games overall have been an improvement and they have allowed 32.7 points per game on 442 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play. The air is where they have really struggled but interestingly enough Buffalo completes only 12.3 passes per game their last three games for only 173.7 passing yards per game while completing only 52.9% of their passes. There was a time in the mid-season where Toledo allowed 24 or less points in three straight games. I see that possibly happening again tonight in a lower scoring game than people think.

It's been a while since Toledo played in Buffalo but they won 25-20 the last time they were here. The Rockets are coming off a disappointing home loss to Northern Illinois last week as a home favorite (screwing all their backers over) but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on a Wednesday night and that includes last week's debacle versus Kent State and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven game coming off a game where they ran for 200+ yards in that game. Buffalo has a lot of pressure on them in this one because they need a win to clinch Bowl Eligibility but they have Bowling Green next week and after seeing what happened to Bowling Green last night they have to be feeling good about themselves either way. I'm going with a close game won by the underdog the night not too many people are on them.

Trend of the Game: Toledo is 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss.


Toledo 27, Buffalo 22





more to come...

Kraft said:

I think your comments are awesome...but what happened to Bowling Green last night scares the $hit out of me! Akron ouch! But I like it!!!! Go Zipper Heads!!!!

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I know but the MAC is tricky. You seriously have to pick your spots and sometimes it's not about football. Should have learned my lesson last week with Akron but something tells me Miami Ohio doesn't go nuts in this one and takes their foot off the gas at some point knowing they'll play in the MAC Championship Game. We shall see. Good luck!

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Thursday, November 21




North Carolina State Wolfpack -2.5 (10 Units)

The NC State Wolfpack have had an up and down season full of highs (actually not too many of them) and full of lows (tons of them). Having said that they come into this game 4-6 on the season and with a win today they would set themselves up for a massive showdown next week against their rivals North Carolina for a spot in a Bowl Game. They can only get there if they win here and win I think they will do. Although they lost 34-20 to Louisville last week it was one of NC State's better games this season as they outyarded the Cardinals by 56 total yards (first opponent they outyard since October 10 against Syracuse). The offense has really struggled in the last three games averaging only 13.3 points per game on 310.7 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. The passing game has been brutal but I do see the Wolfpack running the ball well tonight against a Georgia Tech defense that has been gashed for 183.7 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry their last three games. Overall they are allowing 32.7 points per game in those games on 412 total yards of offense and 6.1 yards per play. QB Devin Leary (the all-time leading passer in New Jersey High School history) has 3 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions in his last three games but Georgia Tech is not Clemson or Wake Forest. They allow 70.6% of passes to be completed against them for 8.1 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. I like Leary to throw 2-3 touchdown passes tonight.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, for those who don't already know this, changed coaches this season for the first time in forever as Paul Johnson made his way out the door with his running offense and in came Geoff Collins who is more a shotgun offense type of guy. That means he's had to convert his entire group of players, mostly guys from the Johnson era, into Shotgun style players when they were brought in here to be part of an option run offense. The Jackets have two wins on the season and with Georgia up next it looks like the end of the line for this group but they have nothing to lose. Like NC State their offense has been atrocious the last three games averaging 12.7 points per game on 233.3 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play in those games. They do have a chance tonight against the NC State defense that has allowed 44.3 points per game in their last three games on 431 total yards per game and 5.7 yards per play but keep in mind they played against Clemson and Wake Forest during that stretch. Not an easy task. Even then they allowed only 3.5 yards per carry on the ground so any hope of Georgia Tech running the ball, which they average only 3.1 yards per carry on 94 rushing yards per game, should be an afterthought. That means this is all on QB James Graham (or whoever is behind center) who has completed only 47.5% of his passes for 8 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. The Wolfpack defense has 0 turnovers their last three games and have just not made plays on defense. This defense is much better than that and this could be their best game since holding Syracuse to 10 points back in October.

Here is something interesting. NC State comes into this season having won 5 straight games versus ACC Coastal Division opponents and they have to continue winning games if they want a shot at a Bowl Game (most pre-season projections had them going Bowling). NC State comes into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on a Thursday Night and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a losing record. I know they've been awful on the road but this is the one opponent they should be beating. Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games and they are only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall. This is one of the worst ATS teams in the Country and one of the worst teams overall. The Road Team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings and as this line continues to move and I wish I had bet it a day earlier, I'm still betting on the Wolfpack with confidence even if they only win by 3. NC State keeps the Bowl Dream alive tonight.

Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.


NC State 27, Georgia Tech 13





more to come...

Good call on Akron, I couldn't pull the trigger

NC State getting steamed from +1 to now -2.5... follow the money!! good luck MF

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Saturday, November 23



Liberty Flames +16.5 (10 Units)

The Liberty Flames were projected to win 5 games before the season started but were penciled in a possible upset specials for 2-3 games. Last year was their first in FBS football and they finished 6-6 but did not get invited to a Bowl Game. They came into the 2019 season with the #5 most experienced team in the Nation (returning starters and players) and they come into their final two games of the season with a 6-4 record having beat Buffalo, Hampton, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Maine and UMass. Not exactly an impressive list of wins but wins are wins. If you haven't seen the Liberty offense yet and the way Hugh Freeze has run things, you will see it in this game. They average 40.3 points per game in their last three games on 7.4 yards per play and 524.7 total yards of offense per game. Virginia's defense is allowing an incredible 29 points per game on 7.0 yards per play. Liberty can run the ball down your throat with their 167 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry in their last three or they can throw all over you with their gun slinger QB Steven "Buckshot" Calvert who has 23 Touchdown passes and 2 interceptions with a QB Rating of 158.4 this season. He has throw for 300+ yards in his last two games (BYU and UMass) and is facing a Virginia defense that has allowed 11.0 yards per pass attempt in their last three games.

The Virginia Cavaliers are on a nice little two games run where they beat both Georgia Tech and North Carolina but their defense seems to have disappeared and I want to go back to a game earlier this season when the Hoos barely beat Old Dominion as a -27 point home favorite. That was another so called in-State rivalry and the Monarchs came to Charlottesville with their best shot. You better believe Liberty, being only 70 miles away, are going to do the exact same thing in this game. Liberty have cut down their points per game allowed by almost a full 10 points in 2019 from one year ago and that goes with being one of the most experienced teams in the Nation. Virginia's offense is averaging 30.7 points per game in their last three games but they have done that on only 5.9 yards per play and don't really have an explosive offense. Pass protection and the offensive line have been issues as the Cavaliers average only 122.3 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry in their last three and they have allowed QB Bryce Perkins to be sacked 9 times in those games. Liberty's pass rush is really good and they have 7 sacks in their last three games. They do give up some big yardage plays but I do think they'll play their most inspired football of the season on both sides of the ball and the Virginia offense will probably take time to get going the way they did against Old Dominion.

The two schools are 70 miles apart so make no mistake about it this is a rivalry game but maybe only one program cares. Virginia has Virginia Tech next week in what is setting up to be one hell of a fight in the ACC Coastal. The game last year, their first meeting ever, was only 24-17 at the half before Virginia opened the flood gates in the second half but one year later and with one of the most experienced teams in the Nation, Liberty are sure to be in this game. Liberty comes into this game 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus ACC Conference opponents and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Virginia is 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win and no doubt have their eyes feasting on a huge huge huge rivalry games versus Tech next week. There is a reason this line keeps dropping. I'm going with Liberty to keep this close. Upset possible. They are better than Old Dominion.

Trend of the Game: Liberty is 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus ACC Conference opponents.


Liberty 27, Virginia 23






more to come...

Mr. Flava......BOL with all your Sat. action buddy.....look forward to a great weekend...…..indy

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Northwestern Wildcats +14 (10 Units)

The Minnesota Golden Gophers saw their perfect season come to a crashing end last week in a heartbreaking loss to Iowa and sometimes the hardest thing in college football is re-focusing and finding a way to play at the level you played at before the devastating loss. I think the Gophers are going to have a really hard time in this game. Think about it. There was no margin for error if they wanted a shot at making the College Football Playoff. Don't forget, Northwestern always plays these guys tough too. The Gophers lost 39-0 here two years ago as a seven point underdog and they won by only 10 against the Wildcats at home last season. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE QB TANNER MORGAN can't go in this after suffering a concussion in the Iowa loss. That's massive. I'm betting this regardless of his status because Northwestern's defense has allowed only 16.7 points per game in their last three home games and allowed only 319 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play in those games. Those are real struggles for opponents. On the ground they allow only 3.0 yards per carry and 93.3 rushing yards per game in those games and in the air they have allowed their last three home opponents to complete only 57.7% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt while recording 3 interceptions and 5 QB Sacks. The Gophers average only 3.2 yards per carry in their last three on the road and all their offense has come in the passing game. Northwestern has the #31 ranked pass defense in the Nation.

The Northwestern Wildcats would have more than 2 wins this season if they had any kind of offense but coming off their biggest win and their biggest offensive output of the season last week against Massachusetts (45 points scored) should have this group confident heading into this game. Sure things didn't turn out for Pat Fitzgerald and his group in 2019 and I know they expected to exceed expectations like they always do and reach yet another Bowl Game like they the last four seasons but it just wasn't that kind of year. I do however think this team finishes strong. The offense is up to 23.3 points per game now in their last three games (they average 14.5 points per game on the year) and they are averaging 348 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Not bad at all. Minnesota's defense is no doubt dejected after last week and they have now allowed 5.9 yards per play in their last three games and are allowing 24 points per game on the road this season. Northwestern may have found a gem in freshman RB Evan Hull who played only his second game of the season last week and went off for 200+ rushing yards. The Wildcats average 224 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry their last three games and Minnesota has allowed 4.5 yards per carry in their last three. Look for that to be a huge factor in this game as the Wildcats keep the ball out of QB Aidan Smith's hands as much as possible. I like them to control tempo and game.

Like I've already mentioned, the toughest game of the year for Minnesota wasn't last week at Iowa where they lost it will be this week trying to recover from the loss and play against a tough blue collar style defense and a stubborn team with nothing to lose. The Gophers did not score a single point here two years ago and tomorrow's forecast looks to be cold and windy for gametime. Northwestern have not covered the spread in any home game this season or any of their last eight home games. That streak has to eventually come to an end. An interesting stat I found is that after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in a game like they did last week versus UMass, they are 25-6-1 ATS the next time out in their last 32 games like that. The Home Team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and I'm going with Northwestern to make this an absolute dog fight with Minnesota.

Trend of the Game: Northwestern is 25-6-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.


Minnesota 20, Northwestern 17





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Western Carolina Catamounts +57 (10 Units)

The Western Carolina Catamounts, I'm not going to lie, forced me into a bit of research instead of general knowledge and here is what I can tell you about them. They got their asses handed to them in September against NC State to the tune of a 41-0 blowout loss. That looks bad but NC State is not playing like the NC State we saw earlier this season. Also consider this. The Catamounts are 0-56 lifetime versus FBS opponents which is not a surprise at all. Their defense is pretty bad and is going to have a tough time stopping the Alabama offense but on the offensive side of things they do have a veteran quarterbacks in QB Tyrie Adams who is the program's all-time leading passer at 8,866 passing yards, 11,385 total yards and 64 passing touchdowns. He has played five career games versus FBS opponents and has passed for 927 passing yards (185.4 per game) and 2 touchdowns while running for 404 yards (80.8 rushing yards per game) and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Western Carolina has two assistant coaches who either played under or were coaches under Nick Saban so there is a connection there. Alabama's defense has allowed 20 points per game in their last three games. The Catamounts will struggle to score but even 3 points will help cover this spread.

The Alabama Crimson Tide want to show the Nation that even after their loss to LSU they are still a team worth considering for the National Title so something tells me recording a shutout in this game is going to be on their minds but they face a crafty veteran QB at Western Carolina and I find it hard to believe the Catamounts won't at least score once or twice. Since 2010 the average points scored versus this Bama defense by FCS opponents is 7 points per game. This is also the first game for Alabama with no Tua which means it's Mac Jones time. Jones got some playing time in 2018 but completed only 38.5% of his 13 pass attempts. This year Jones has fared much better and completed 69.2% of his passes for 4 Touchdowns and 1 interception. There is no sugar coating how bad the Western Carolina defense has been in FCS play this year as they rank #93 overall and run a base 3-4 defense under a group of experienced coaches but how long will the Alabama starter even play? I say they play the first half and then it's all the backups in order to preserve bodies and avoid anymore injuries before the Iron Bowl next week. Bama offense goes off but not enough to cover this spread. The Catamounts are terrible on defense but again they do have some experienced players on both sides of the ball and they have coaches with connections to Nick Saban and Alabama which should have them playing a little bit harder this afternoon.

The last time Western Carolina was here was in 2014 and they lost 48-14 as a +50 point road underdog versus #2 Alabama but they covered the spread. Every single season Alabama plays against an FCS opponents. In 2015 it was a 56-6 win over Charleston Southern as a -38 point favorite, in 2016 it was a 31-3 win over Chattanooga as a -48 point favorite, in 2017 it was a 56-0 win over Mercer as a -50 point favorite and last year was a 50-17 win over The Citadel as a -51 point favorite. Alabama has played an FCS opponent every year since 2010 and average winning margin is 41 points. I'll take the extra two touchdowns in this one. I know this is a risk because I don't see my underdog winning at all and they may only score 3 points but I'm going based on history and this spread is just way too big without Tua. Catamounts cover.

Trend of the Game: Alabama is 8-0 SU versus FCS opponents since 2010 winning by an average of 41 points per game.


Alabama 56, Western Carolina 10





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MF im to lazy to look it up but alabama has a horrible record laying more that 50 to anyone... earlier this year they laid 55 to NMST and won 62-10.. the stadium will be dead and WC i feel will say under that number. i like the pick good luck tomorrow sir

boomer1 said:

MF im to lazy to look it up but alabama has a horrible record laying more that 50 to anyone... earlier this year they laid 55 to NMST and won 62-10.. the stadium will be dead and WC i feel will say under that number. i like the pick good luck tomorrow sir

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i think roll tide posted about bama's record ats against teams over +50. can't remember the record but i do know they didn't cover against nm st this year after he posted it

MistaFlava said:

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Western Carolina Catamounts +57 (10 Units)

The Western Carolina Catamounts, I'm not going to lie, forced me into a bit of research instead of general knowledge and here is what I can tell you about them. They got their asses handed to them in September against NC State to the tune of a 41-0 blowout loss. That looks bad but NC State is not playing like the NC State we saw earlier this season. Also consider this. The Catamounts are 0-56 lifetime versus FBS opponents which is not a surprise at all. Their defense is pretty bad and is going to have a tough time stopping the Alabama offense but on the offensive side of things they do have a veteran quarterbacks in QB Tyrie Adams who is the program's all-time leading passer at 8,866 passing yards, 11,385 total yards and 64 passing touchdowns. He has played five career games versus FBS opponents and has passed for 927 passing yards (185.4 per game) and 2 touchdowns while running for 404 yards (80.8 rushing yards per game) and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Western Carolina has two assistant coaches who either played under or were coaches under Nick Saban so there is a connection there. Alabama's defense has allowed 20 points per game in their last three games. The Catamounts will struggle to score but even 3 points will help cover this spread.

The Alabama Crimson Tide want to show the Nation that even after their loss to LSU they are still a team worth considering for the National Title so something tells me recording a shutout in this game is going to be on their minds but they face a crafty veteran QB at Western Carolina and I find it hard to believe the Catamounts won't at least score once or twice. Since 2010 the average points scored versus this Bama defense by FCS opponents is 7 points per game. This is also the first game for Alabama with no Tua which means it's Mac Jones time. Jones got some playing time in 2018 but completed only 38.5% of his 13 pass attempts. This year Jones has fared much better and completed 69.2% of his passes for 4 Touchdowns and 1 interception. There is no sugar coating how bad the Western Carolina defense has been in FCS play this year as they rank #93 overall and run a base 3-4 defense under a group of experienced coaches but how long will the Alabama starter even play? I say they play the first half and then it's all the backups in order to preserve bodies and avoid anymore injuries before the Iron Bowl next week. Bama offense goes off but not enough to cover this spread. The Catamounts are terrible on defense but again they do have some experienced players on both sides of the ball and they have coaches with connections to Nick Saban and Alabama which should have them playing a little bit harder this afternoon.

The last time Western Carolina was here was in 2014 and they lost 48-14 as a +50 point road underdog versus #2 Alabama but they covered the spread. Every single season Alabama plays against an FCS opponents. In 2015 it was a 56-6 win over Charleston Southern as a -38 point favorite, in 2016 it was a 31-3 win over Chattanooga as a -48 point favorite, in 2017 it was a 56-0 win over Mercer as a -50 point favorite and last year was a 50-17 win over The Citadel as a -51 point favorite. Alabama has played an FCS opponent every year since 2010 and average winning margin is 41 points. I'll take the extra two touchdowns in this one. I know this is a risk because I don't see my underdog winning at all and they may only score 3 points but I'm going based on history and this spread is just way too big without Tua. Catamounts cover.

Trend of the Game: Alabama is 8-0 SU versus FCS opponents since 2010 winning by an average of 41 points per game.


Alabama 56, Western Carolina 10





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and don't forget, Since Nick Saban took over as Bama's head caich in 2007, Bama has never covered a 50 point spread... I took New Mexico State this season for the cover (50+). GL

MistaFlava said:

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Northwestern Wildcats +14 (10 Units)

The Minnesota Golden Gophers saw their perfect season come to a crashing end last week in a heartbreaking loss to Iowa and sometimes the hardest thing in college football is re-focusing and finding a way to play at the level you played at before the devastating loss. I think the Gophers are going to have a really hard time in this game. Think about it. There was no margin for error if they wanted a shot at making the College Football Playoff. Don't forget, Northwestern always plays these guys tough too. The Gophers lost 39-0 here two years ago as a seven point underdog and they won by only 10 against the Wildcats at home last season. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE QB TANNER MORGAN can't go in this after suffering a concussion in the Iowa loss. That's massive. I'm betting this regardless of his status because Northwestern's defense has allowed only 16.7 points per game in their last three home games and allowed only 319 total yards of offense and 4.5 yards per play in those games. Those are real struggles for opponents. On the ground they allow only 3.0 yards per carry and 93.3 rushing yards per game in those games and in the air they have allowed their last three home opponents to complete only 57.7% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt while recording 3 interceptions and 5 QB Sacks. The Gophers average only 3.2 yards per carry in their last three on the road and all their offense has come in the passing game. Northwestern has the #31 ranked pass defense in the Nation.

The Northwestern Wildcats would have more than 2 wins this season if they had any kind of offense but coming off their biggest win and their biggest offensive output of the season last week against Massachusetts (45 points scored) should have this group confident heading into this game. Sure things didn't turn out for Pat Fitzgerald and his group in 2019 and I know they expected to exceed expectations like they always do and reach yet another Bowl Game like they the last four seasons but it just wasn't that kind of year. I do however think this team finishes strong. The offense is up to 23.3 points per game now in their last three games (they average 14.5 points per game on the year) and they are averaging 348 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Not bad at all. Minnesota's defense is no doubt dejected after last week and they have now allowed 5.9 yards per play in their last three games and are allowing 24 points per game on the road this season. Northwestern may have found a gem in freshman RB Evan Hull who played only his second game of the season last week and went off for 200+ rushing yards. The Wildcats average 224 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry their last three games and Minnesota has allowed 4.5 yards per carry in their last three. Look for that to be a huge factor in this game as the Wildcats keep the ball out of QB Aidan Smith's hands as much as possible. I like them to control tempo and game.

Like I've already mentioned, the toughest game of the year for Minnesota wasn't last week at Iowa where they lost it will be this week trying to recover from the loss and play against a tough blue collar style defense and a stubborn team with nothing to lose. The Gophers did not score a single point here two years ago and tomorrow's forecast looks to be cold and windy for gametime. Northwestern have not covered the spread in any home game this season or any of their last eight home games. That streak has to eventually come to an end. An interesting stat I found is that after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in a game like they did last week versus UMass, they are 25-6-1 ATS the next time out in their last 32 games like that. The Home Team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and I'm going with Northwestern to make this an absolute dog fight with Minnesota.

Trend of the Game: Northwestern is 25-6-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.


Minnesota 20, Northwestern 17





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I respect your handicapping,but Northwestern sucks,the only thing that makes me stay off this game is how Minnesota reacts after losing to Iowa last week,do they come out down,or do they come out breathing fire,....good luck today

rxman said:

and don't forget, Since Nick Saban took over as Bama's head caich in 2007, Bama has never covered a 50 point spread... I took New Mexico State this season for the cover (50+). GL

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Yeah I liked it when I saw it not knowing much about Western Carolina because it doesn't matter too much. Of course it helps to have their all-time leader passer as QB for some possible points but thanks for the stat. Did not know that. Good Luck!