Week 13: MAC, Big Plays Later

ofred · Nov 20, 2019

Lost about 4 and a half units last week, but can't complain. Minnesota's missed extra point turned a push into a win. Oklahoma's flat first 1H also was discouraging. I have 2-3 large plays that will post later as I'm trying to figure out the units.
YTD: 92-82, +8.40 units

1* Miami, OH -17 1H Like Miami's defense considering how much of the MAC plays very little defense. Akron will struggle to even get 1st downs. Miami,OH at home and might get a decent turn out from their fans. Miami won't dazzle you with their dynamic offense, but they do run the ball well, and Akron can't stop the run. Look for a turnover or two, and short fields, to make this play happen.

indiana · Nov 20, 2019

Fred.....BOL tonight buddy.....couldn't make up my mind, so I ended up 1st Qtr. -7......BOL this weekend buddy...…..indy

ofred · Nov 21, 2019

The MAC…disappoints again. Should know better.

6* Arizona State +14 Oregon has been exemplary this season, but here's a game they could lose. The Ducks are very good, but not so good that they couldn't blow a road game vs. a "hungry for a win" team like ASU. Since Herm Edwards has been there, ASU has gone 12-11, with their 11 losses at an average of only 7 points. And only Utah beat them by more than 11 at 21-3, with the last TD coming late 4th quarter. Edwards will have his team prepared to end their losing streak. After beating Wazzu, Cal and Michigan State, ASU has hit a 4 game losing streak, but really, they are capable (and overdue) for beating almost anyone. There is nothing glaringly wrong with them, their QB is healthy, and the defense while inconsistent, can also be tough to score upon. Oregon already lost their star TE, and now lose WR Pittman to injury. The Ducks are not loaded there, and this should help ASU's struggles with pass defense. ASU keeps it close, possibly an upset.

6* Air Force -22.5 UNM is down to 57 scholarship players after being ravaged by injuries, suspensions, and transfers. And of the 57, you could include freshman who are nowhere near ready to play…and walk-ons…and the usual Lobo player that is a 1 or 2 star recruit. UNM probably has no RBs left that will be able to make a difference vs. Air Force. The QB passes poorly, and his running will be the focus of the AF defense. QB Tuioti is also turnover and injury prone, so that is also a factor. Air Force's offense will bring a whole new problem for UNM. The UNM DL is also very thin, and the secondary is inexperienced and lacking depth. And more injuries to key players will make this game a bigger blowout. Oh, and the #2 QB for the Lobos is suspended for exposing himself. So if Tuioti goes out, it's #3. Like Air Force's ability to pass and play stout defense up front.

ofred · Nov 21, 2019

6* Ohio State -18.5 My mush play of the week. Much of this play is based on the angle that Ohio State might just be one of those dominant teams that only comes along once every 5 years or so- like Alabama of a few years ago. Much is made of Fields, Dobbins and Chase Young, but if you've seen them play, there are other attributes they excel at. They are near impossible to run against. The DBs also offer excellent run support and tackle well. Fields is a better passer than expected. There is very good senior leadership on the team. Hill and Mack and others are playmakers and hard to cover at the WR spot. Their Rutgers game was either a bye, or it was good they played so poorly. It might help them realize how easy a letdown can derail their season. Also OSU is at home, and an early lead will be hard to overcome for PSU.

Watched PSU play Indiana, and even though Indiana is injury-riddled, they often outplayed PSU, out-yarding them by about 100 yards @ PSU. Maybe this biases my thinking here, but I also noticed how poorly played vs. Michigan 2nd half. If KJ Hammler is out, PSU will be missing their go-to WR in a game where QB Sean Clifford will be under pressure for much of the game. If Clifford plays out of his mind, which would surprise me, PSU has a good chance of covering. He has actually been fairly mediocre his last 5 games, except vs. Minnesota- a game where he played well and received death threats afterwards. With OSU limiting the PSU run game, he will have to shine. Credit OSU's coaching staff for turning a question mark(the OL) into a positive. Credit Ryan Day for instilling in his team that talent alone will not win games like this. This Buckeye team looks more disciplined and better prepared on game day.

indiana · Nov 22, 2019

Fred...….BOL with all your action Sat. buddy....on these with you.....continued success with all your weekend action...…..indy

ofred · Nov 22, 2019

indiana said:
Fred...….BOL with all your action Sat. buddy....on these with you.....continued success with all your weekend action...…..indy

Good luck to you too Indy.

ofred · Nov 22, 2019

1.5* Georgia/ Texas A&M- under 44 It will rain nearly 2 inches before the game onto a grass field, and then another inch during the game. This will not only slow down the players, saturate the ball, affect FGs, but it will also cause both teams to run the ball more often. Georgia is already looking like a Top 5 defensive team, and top WR, Cager, looks doubtful to play. A&M is playing better run defense, and Kellen Mond has been able to count on his running game more, passing less. The clock should be a factor as both teams run often in the weather conditions. This total only looks about 3 points less than what it would be in normal weather.

1* Georgia St./South Alabama- under 55.5 The other very wet Georgia game. QB Dan Ellington has a torn ACL, but played last week and might play again. However, his mobility is very poor, and it is doubtful he plays the whole game- especially in a downpour. If GSU goes with their freshman QB, he of a 39% completion rate, this will make 2 poor passing QBs in there. USA runs about twice as much as they pass due to their own issues at the QB position. They played better offensively last week, but overall USA has been a decent defensive team and a conservative, run-heavy offensive team. If Ellingtom plays really well on his torn ACL, this game could go over, but otherwise I look for 2 running offenses, clock ticking, with rain expected throughout.

ofred · Nov 22, 2019

o fred said:
6* Ohio State -18.5 My mush play of the week. Much of this play is based on the angle that Ohio State might just be one of those dominant teams that only comes along once every 5 years or so- like Alabama of a few years ago. Much is made of Fields, Dobbins and Chase Young, but if you've seen them play, there are other attributes they excel at. They are near impossible to run against. The DBs also offer excellent run support and tackle well. Fields is a better passer than expected. There is very good senior leadership on the team. Hill and Mack and others are playmakers and hard to cover at the WR spot. Their Rutgers game was either a bye, or it was good they played so poorly. It might help them realize how easy a letdown can derail their season. Also OSU is at home, and an early lead will be hard to overcome for PSU.

Watched PSU play Indiana, and even though Indiana is injury-riddled, they often outplayed PSU, out-yarding them by about 100 yards @ PSU. Maybe this biases my thinking here, but I also noticed how poorly played vs. Michigan 2nd half. If KJ Hammler is out, PSU will be missing their go-to WR in a game where QB Sean Clifford will be under pressure for much of the game. If Clifford plays out of his mind, which would surprise me, PSU has a good chance of covering. He has actually been fairly mediocre his last 5 games, except vs. Minnesota- a game where he played well and received death threats afterwards. With OSU limiting the PSU run game, he will have to shine. Credit OSU's coaching staff for turning a question mark(the OL) into a positive. Credit Ryan Day for instilling in his team that talent alone will not win games like this. This Buckeye team looks more disciplined and better prepared on game day.

A side note here: PSU coach, James Franklin, is already talking to FSU officials about that job. In the summer, Franklin was voted most overrated by fellow coaches- and I think he may have worn out his welcome at PSU..and alienated his players a bit looking for another job before the OSU game.
1* Ohio State -10 (-120) 1H

ofred · Nov 22, 2019

2* Navy -3 SMU's defense has been demolished in their last 4-5 games. They will struggle here in Annapolis to a Navy team that I'm convinced will bounce back well from their Notre Dame game. It should start raining 1Q favoring the Navy run game. Navy has played very solid defense until last week's ND game. SMU will also bring a dynamic offense, but they don't have the size and speed of ND- something that gave ND a huge advantage in the trenches. I also think 1 9-1 SMU team, going on the road late in the season, after so many close wins, is a perfect candidate for a letdown vs. an offense that is hard to prep for.

2* Memphis -14 (-120) A big shout-out to Memphis coach Mike Norvell, who along with his assistants, has transformed this Memphis team from a high scoring, inconsistent semi-winner into a highly disciplined, good executing team that even plays solid defense now. And their special teams are also excellent. Now playing for a one loss season vs. a USF team that is reeling after losing to UC in a game they felt they shoulda won. USF can play some defense, but the offense is lame. Poorly coached, predictable, and HC Charlie Strong has almost no input to his OC. Even though USF is playing its final home game, I don't expect much of a crowd, and there might be a decent contingent of Tiger fans there. I just can't see USF keeping up with the scoring, and with UCF next week, knowing a bowl game is out and a rival is coming next week.

ofred · Nov 22, 2019

1* Troy/ ULL- over 72 ULL will likely feast on this Troy defense. ULL struggled to beat lowly USA last week, and I expect they'll play much better this week. Also, Troy might have the widest disparity of any FBS team between their offense and defense. The offense is explosive under QB Kaleb Barker, a QB under the radar, but very likely one of the best in the Group 5 teams. Troy can also run the ball well behind a very good OL, which will be necessary vs. ULL. Now ULL is known for being pretty good defensively, but I would only say that with a grain of salt. The Sun Belt's defenses are never THAT good. ULL does have a legitimately great running game, and might gouge Troy for 300+ yards on the ground. High total is well-deserved. 80-95 very possible here.

1* Hawaii -3 Unthinkable that Hawaii is a favorite over perennially Mt. West powerhouse SD State. But this is a different year, and the Aztecs don't have the running game of the past. In fact, it's been poor even against poor Mt. West defenses. Even SD State's D is down a notch. Maybe it's because their offense gives their opponents short fields, but losing to Nevada and squeaking by UNLV and San Jose are not outliers- but a symptom of a much weaker SD State team. Hawaii at home and should be able to score enough here to pull away at some point.

ofred · Nov 22, 2019

1* Kansas +25 Kansas got beat bad last week by Okie State, but played hard to the end. They nearly beat Texas, beat Texas Tech and easily covered vs. Oklahoma. Kansas has enough offensive firepower to drive down the field, and score a few times vs. the "bend don't break" philosophy of Iowa State's defense. Iowa State also tends to sustain long drives offensively, running and passing for short gains. The time used for both of these scenarios will make covering a 25 point spread difficult for Iowa St. bettors. Iowa State coming off an emotional win vs. Texas with the much better K State on deck. The Cyclones narrowly beat Drake last season at the end of the year, and maybe Matt Campbell either shows some sympathy here, or goes with a vanilla game plan. Kansas good enough offensively for a back door.

1* Tulsa -3 Tulsa is the best 3-7 team in the country. They are off a bye week after beating UCF, narrowly losing to Memphis, and playing a tough schedule. Houston seems to be fading in recent weeks after a good start vs. UCF 1Q. Tulsa QB Zach Smith a game time decision, but backup Seth Boomer has playing experience and should be a nice dual threat if used. Tulsa at home and with the better defense. May up this play to a 2*.

ofred · Nov 22, 2019

1* Pitt +4 Anyone else getting the feeling that VT's good fortune will even out here? VT has played far better than expected after getting killed by Duke and losing to BC. But don't be fooled by their ND game. They were very much outplayed by ND and if not for a 98 fumble return TD, this game could have been more like 35-10. Pitt brings in a better defense than VT, a well-rounded offense, and a few extra days of prep. VT QB Hendon Hooker might be their future, but I'm not convinced he is a big difference maker. The ACC is also funny in that road teams tend to do pretty well, and road underdogs win more than you'd think they would.

1* UCLA +14 Clay Helton will get fired whether USC wins this or not. Duh. Helton's teams have not finished well, and it almost seems like the USC players start to focus more on their draft possibilities rather than the game at hand in these end of schedule games. Last year's UCLA team was worse, and yet they upset USC. Forget UCLA's crushing last week at Utah. UCLA is showing improvement, and they will forget that game too. A USC win would be a great win to end the season, and they have the offense that can make it interesting. USC is so much an up and down team, that after 2 wins, they are due for a letdown with a lame duck coach.

ofred · Nov 22, 2019

Note: Some of these 1* game are 1 unit or a little less. Upping Hawaii -3 to a 1.5. And the ULL/ Troy over to 1.5* UCLA is more like .7 or .8, but just keeping things simple.

1* Tulane +6 A bet against a public favorite, UCF. Tulane and UCF have both come down to earth, but I'll ride the Green Wave here at home in a needed win for a bowl bid and regaining some momentum. UCF has only one convincing win vs. a decent team, Temple…unless you count the 1Q whipping of Stanford early in the season.

METFAN · Nov 22, 2019

GREAT STUFF FRED..Thanks

OAKAS · Nov 23, 2019

Nice write-ups fred

ofred · Nov 23, 2019

Thanks guys.

Final Plays?

.5* WVU +6 Going to follow the money, not the public here. Cold conditions, and Okie State has had difficulty passing in recent weeks. Final home game for a non-bowl team like WVU means this is their bowl game.

.5* Minnesota -15.5 I'll give up an extra 2 points to have Tanner Morgan play here. NW's offense actually hurts their defense, making it difficult to be on the field so often with short fields. Northwestern looked very ordinary last week vs. a terrible UMass team.

doogieboy · Nov 23, 2019

F us up the arse...AF couldn’t hold and got back doored by the hook &#55358;&#56620;

ofred · Nov 23, 2019

doogieboy said:
F us up the arse...AF couldn’t hold and got back doored by the hook &#55358;&#56620;

That and Ohio State turnovers killed the day.

Week 13: MAC, Big Plays Later

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