Aight folks. A buddy and I do a podcast where we talk through our "Top 10" each week, and banter back and forth on these games. A nice slate of games, this week
I cant post the podcast here because it gets flagged for "promotion," but I will post the iTunes link in the promotion forum in case anyone wants to hear 2 rednecks talk about college football.
Last Week: 1-3 -0.7*
Season: 15-23 -21.3*
Our plays:
May you take 'em or fade 'em, Good luck to all, this weekend!
4* Ohio St -18'
4* Arizona St +14'
3* UAB -5'
My writeups (pardon the spelling) from 1-10. Thoughts and comments are welcome!
I cant post the podcast here because it gets flagged for "promotion," but I will post the iTunes link in the promotion forum in case anyone wants to hear 2 rednecks talk about college football.
Last Week: 1-3 -0.7*
Season: 15-23 -21.3*
Our plays:
May you take 'em or fade 'em, Good luck to all, this weekend!
4* Ohio St -18'
4* Arizona St +14'
3* UAB -5'
My writeups (pardon the spelling) from 1-10. Thoughts and comments are welcome!
| Liberty +17 | I love Liberty in this spot getting too many points against an underwhelming 7-3 UVA team. The UVA run D is very good, but it matters not, because the Flames like throwing the ball all over the field with QB Calvert(rank 16 @ over 300 ypg @ whopping 8.8 ypp). This is a good matchup due to UVA's weakness being on the back end (not a lot of yards - 193 but they do give up @ 7.3 ypp - ranks 69th). This equates to a 0.4 ypp and 1.32 yppa advantage. UVA has a slim edge in ypr @ 0.33. And lets be honest, Virginia hasnt been competing against world beaters in the ACC. The Virginia O has been relatively anemic, TY, ranking 96, so the porous Liberty D is only a slight concern. Liberty are road warriors (17-7 L24 road games), and Virginia are only 2-5-1 L8 games. I dont think the wrong team is favored, but I thing the favorite is laying a few too many points. Give me Liberty, and give me the 17. |
| Utah -22' | This is one of the biggest mismatches on the board. Utah is on a mission (pun intented) to beat people as bad as they can to make a case for the playoff. Unlike the Oregon game, the opponent here is incompetent. There is a 232 yard difference between the Ute D and Zona's D, but the offenses are similar (455 vs 470). This is going to be a long night for the wildcats. Both teams run it and throw it well, but only 1 team can stop either, which happend to be both. Utah ranks 3rd in total D, 22nd in pass D, and 1st in rush D (Zona is 126th , 129th, and 73rd repsectively). The splits are eye-popping 2.88 pl/2.47 ru/ and 5.39 pa, which tells me they can exploit the ground and air game. Utah are 7-3 ATS while Zona is 2-7-1. 2 teams heading in the wrong direction. Utah scores early and often. I think utah has this covered by haltime. |
| Ohio St -18' | I think Ohio St may be the best team in the country and don’t think Penn State is as good as their 9-1 record. PSU got a win against Indiana LW, but were outgained by 91. Ohio St has boatraced every opponent, and I think they are ready to make a statement that they should be ranked #1. They are a complete team, and Chase Young is returning to make them even better. They come into this game with a 2.08 pl/1.29 ru/2.78 pa advantage, and should really be able to control the ball. I dont imagine that anyone will be able to run the ball with great success (4th and 6th ranked), so I think OSU will gameplan to exploit the back end of the PSU D that ranks 84th and gives up 240 per @ 6.9 ypp (the only defensive weakness of either team). OSU have been red hot as of late (8-1 L9 as fav and 8-1 L9 conference games). I dont think this game is close. Give me the buckeyes -18' |
| USC -14 | We were on UCLA, LW, and Utah dominated. I am seeing a similar type game, here. USC has a ~50 yard per game better O and a ~40 yard per game better D. The biggest mismatch is through the air. Usc have the 11th ranked pass O behind Slovis, and that is the one thing UCLA cannot stop (rank 123 giving up nearly 300 per) leading to 3.55 yppa advantage for the trojans. UCLA statistically have a ypr advantage of 0.21, but is doesnt worry me becasue the bruins only gain 3.8 ypc and USC are decent (middle of the pack) at stopping the run (rank 77). I think USC can jump on them early and force them to play catchup, which is not the the strength of Thompson-Robinson. This is a rivalry game, and the home team is 16-7 L23. I think the Trojans remember the 34-27 loss to the Bruins last year, and are eager to avenge it. USC still holds a little hope that Utah can drop a game and put them back in the Drivers seat for the Pac-12 title, so focus should not be an issue. I like USC to win by 24 in this game. |
| Navy -3' | We were on Navy, LW, but early turnovers and quick scores from ND put the game out of reach for the midshipmen (Dame only outgained Navy by 50 yards). I am coming back on them, this week against the 9-1 SMU ponies. SMU, statistically, has been good against the run, but they really have only played 3 teams that can run the ball, TY, and have been outgained and outrushed in all 3. SMU has a prolific O led by Beuchelle, but I think the Navy ground attack will keep them on the sidelines (even when the Navy D are on the field, they only give up 7.4 yppa, and 3.3 YPR). Navy has a 0.88 ypp and a 1.72 ypr advantage in this one, and the home team is 6-2 L8 in this series. I believe Navy will bounceback from the sloppyness of last week and get a little 31-30 revenge and earn a quality top 25 win. |
| Indiana +9' | I was on Indiana, LW, and I am going to come back on them again. I know I am stepping in front of a Michigan team that has been playing better ball, as of late, but Indy has been playing well all year (played @ PSU to the wire, LW, and even outgained them by 91). I think they are very undervalued. They come into thei game with very thin yards per margins (.39 play Mich/ 1.33 ru Mich/.12 pas Indy). The YPR advantage doesnt bother me too much as Indy is a full yard worse on D, but still rank 46 in the country. Both teams are pretty even all the way around (Indy is ~50 yards better on O, and Mich is ~50 yards better on D). Indy is 7-3 ATS (3-1 home) TY, and Michigan are 3-8 L11 on the road. Mich is in a tough spot, off of beating rival MSU and OSU is lurking on deck. I can fathom they will be fully focused. I like the feisty Hoosiers who can throw the ball to catch up and slip into the back door. I like Indiana to win the game straight up. |
| Arizona St +14' | I like the matchup for Zona St, here. I think they are good enough on both sides of the ball to give Oregon enough trouble to keep it close. Oregon's is good through the air, but its predicated on the ability to run the ball. That is the strength of ASU. They only allow 109 per @ 3.1 ypc. Both teams are equally potent through the air, and it has been noted a few times on this pod that the Oregon Pass D is a bit over-hyped due to the temas that they have played. When they played good passing teams (WSU, Wash, and USC), the ducks have won but only won 1 by more than 4 (USC despite only outgaining them by 50). The stats are on par with the line (Oregon has a 1.5 ypp), but something tells me Herm will have his guy ready. I think the playoff pressure will get to the ducks, and the Sun devils are fighting for a bowl birth. Give me the competent underdog in this one. I like Arizona St getting 14' @ home. |
| Fresno -14 | I dont quite understand this line, but it opened 12' and is now at 14. Very rare to see a 4-6 team laying 14 to a 6-4 team, but I think there is a good reason in this game. Mostly due to Nevada being bad on the road, and Fresno being good at home. Overall, both teams are equally bad on D, but Nevada's O stats really drop off when they travel (-50 yards and -5 points); conversely, Fresno goes +30 yards and + 7 points. Fresno has a 1.75 pl/1.99 ry/1.68 per play advantage. If Fresno want to keep their bowl bid alive, they need to win this one, and I think they do. I like Fresno -14. |
