Week 12 #’s (THEGAME9000)

I wanted to get this out earlier than normal due to the fact that the # System has a play on the TNF game.

Week 12 #’s

ARI 112
ATL 118
BAL 132
BUF 117
CAR 117
CHI 122
CIN 107
CLE 119
DAL 122
DEN 117
DET 120
GB. 122
HOU 124
IND 122
JAX 114
KC. 127
LAC 122
LAR 125
MIA 105
MIN 127
NE. 127
NO. 124
NYG 111
NYJ 109
OAK 117
PHI 121
PIT 120
SF. 126
SEA 122
TB. 119
TEN 119
WA. 106

Pts..............Home Favs............................Road Favs
Pick............W-5, L-3, L-1, P-3...................L-4
1................LLLLLWWWL..........................WWWLWWPWWPLLW
2................WPWLWLLWWWWW................WWLW
3................WWLWLLW.............................LLLLWWLL
4................LWWLW.................................WWWWLL
5................LWWLLL................................WLLLWLW
6................LWL......................................WLWLLLLW
7................LLW......................................WWW
8................LWLLL...................................LWWW
9................LLWLWL................................LLLWW
10..............LLL.......................................WLLL
11..............LW........................................LWW
12..............L..........................................W
13..............LWL......................................W
14..............WLP......................................LL
15..............W.........................................
16..............WW.......................................W
17..........................................................WW
18...............LL........................................LW
19...............L..........................................L
20...............
21...............WLL.....................................WW
22..........................................................W
23...............
24...............
25..........................................................W
26...............L.........................................


Week 12 # PLAYS:

HOU, TB, SEA, BAL, OAK, JAX & DAL

sds......appreciate the info buddy.......BOL this weekend.......indy

hey sd..I got 4 different #'s, I reran them yesterday from week 5 til now.. I think you may have glanced at the week 1-5 adjustment table by accident when doing last weeks ari/sf game.

ari 111
den 115
ind 123
sf 127

our cover chart is a little different but that's probably just from using a different site for closing lines..no big deal.
a monster swing on the ind/hou and den/buf games with one and two digits...but for the most part we're pretty close..i would stick with your den and ind #'s until after this week and which ever way those 2 games fare better i'll take to heart.

ind, buf, oak, tb, sea and balt.

gl this week

GAME.

THEGAME9000 said:

hey sd..I got 4 different #'s, I reran them yesterday from week 5 til now.. I think you may have glanced at the week 1-5 adjustment table by accident when doing last weeks ari/sf game.

ari 111
den 115
ind 123
sf 127

our cover chart is a little different but that's probably just from using a different site for closing lines..no big deal.
a monster swing on the ind/hou and den/buf games with one and two digits...but for the most part we're pretty close..i would stick with your den and ind #'s until after this week and which ever way those 2 games fare better i'll take to heart.

ind, buf, oak, tb, sea and balt.

gl this week

GAME.

Click to expand...

I always go into a mini-panic attack if and when you think there might be a discrepancy!! So I immediately went back through EVERYTHING (of course, I have maintained written copies of it all, just as you taught me). Here is what I found:

With ARI, you were correct. It was a 2-point adjustment (should have been a 1-point) in week #9 vs SF.

But with the other 3 teams (DEN, IND & SF), after carefully going through it all from week 1 to week 11 (and actually doing the math week-by-week), I have to say that I am getting the exact same #’s as before. Here is a detailed account (to help either prove my # or to make it easier for you pinpoint the error that I am not seeing):

Week 1
DEN 115 was a R3 @ OAK, lost by 8, 8+3=11, (2-pt adj.) DEN 113
IND 124 @ LAC who was a H2, lost by 6, 6-2=4, (no adj.) IND 124
SF 114 @ TB who was a H5, won by 14, 14+5=19, (3-pt adj.) SF 117
Week 2
DEN 113 vs CHI who was a R9, lost by 2, 9-2=7, (1-pt adj.) DEN 114
IND 124 was a R1 @ TEN, won by 2, 2-1=1, (no adj.) IND 124
SF 117 was a R1 @ CIN, won by 24, 24-1=23, (4-pt adj.) SF 121
Week 3
DEN 114 @ GB who was a H8, lost by 11, 11-8=3, (no adj.) DEN 114
IND 124 was a H4 vs ATL, won by 3, 4-3=1, (no adj.) IND 124
SF 121 was a H2 vs PIT, won by 4, 4-2=2, (no adj.) SF 121
Week 4
DEN 114 vs JAX who was a R4, lost by 2, 4-2=2, (no adj.) DEN 114
IND 124 was a H12 vs OAK, lost by 7, 12+7=19, (3-pt adj.) IND 121
SF 121, had a Bye, SF 121
Week 5
DEN 114 @ LAC who was a H8, won by 7, 8+7=15, (3-pt adj.) DEN 117
IND 121 @ KC who was a H8, won by 6, 8+6=14, (2-pt adj.) IND 123
SF 121 vs CLE (Pick ‘Em), won by 28, 28-0=28, (4-pt adj.) SF 125
Week 6
DEN 117 vs TEN who was a R3, won by 16, 16+3=19, (2-pt adj.) DEN 119
IND 121, had a Bye, IND 121
SF 125 was a R1 @ LAR, won by 13, 13-1=12, (1-pt adj.) SF 126
Week 7
DEN 119 vs KC ho was a R8, lost by 24, 24-8=16, (2-pt adj.) DEN 117
IND 123 vs HOU who was a R2, won by 7, 7+2=9, (no adj.) IND 123
SF 126 was a R19 @ WA, won by 9, 19-9=10, (1-pt adj.) SF 125
Week 8
DEN 117 @ IND who was a H6, lost by 2, 6-2=4, (no adj.) DEN 117
IND 123 was a H6 vs DEN, won by 2, 6-2=4, (no adj.) IND 123
SF 125 was a H2 vs CAR, won by 38, 38-2=36, (3-pt adj.) SF 128
Week 9
DEN 117 vs CLE (Pick ‘Em), won by 5, 5-0=5, (no adj.) DEN 117
IND 123 was a R1 @ PIT, lost by 2, 2+1=3, (no adj.) IND 123
SF 128 was a R18 @ ARI, won by 3, 18-3=15, (2-pt adj.) SF 126
Week 10
DEN 117, had a Bye, DEN 117
IND 123 was a H21 vs MIA, lost by 4, 21+4=25, (3-pt adj.) IND 120
SF 126 was a H4 vs SEA, lost by 3, 4+3=7, (no adj.) SF 126
Week 11
DEN 117 @ MIN who was a H10, lost by 4, 10-4=6, (no adj.) DEN 117
IND 120 was a H4 vs JAX, won by 20, 20-4=16, (2-pt adj.) IND 122
SF 126 was a H14 bus ARI, won by 10, 14-10=4, (no adj.) SF 126

[Hopefully I didn’t make any typos or errors in typing this !!]

That’s the best way I could think of to “show my work” in regard to the math and #’s .... it is quite possible that I am not seeing something or missing something quite easy or obvious and I am blind to it for some odd reason. So hopefully this will aid us in determining if there is indeed an error. Thanks GAME!!

Sds-your numbers are correct. I have formulas in spreadsheet. Az is 112. Our charts differ but numbers the same.

big wang said:

Sds-your numbers are correct. I have formulas in spreadsheet. Az is 112. Our charts differ but numbers the same.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the input BW. Does that mean that you have the exact same #’s for DEN, IND & SF? (You specifically referenced ARI, so I needed to clarify).

I didn’t go through all of ARI’s #’s from week 1 to week 11 (like I did with DEN, IND & SF) ... so now I want to do that and double check to see if 111 or 112 is the correct #. ...GAME was right about the week 9 adjustment of 2pts vs 1 pt, so I figured “case closed” in regard to ARI ... but now I wonder what a the # will be if I do it from scratch like the others.

Thanks for the input BW !!

sds23 said:

Thanks for the input BW. Does that mean that you have the exact same #’s for DEN, IND & SF? (You specifically referenced ARI, so I needed to clarify).

I didn’t go through all of ARI’s #’s from week 1 to week 11 (like I did with DEN, IND & SF) ... so now I want to do that and double check to see if 111 or 112 is the correct #. ...GAME was right about the week 9 adjustment of 2pts vs 1 pt, so I figured “case closed” in regard to ARI ... but now I wonder what a the # will be if I do it from scratch like the others.

Thanks for the input BW !!

Click to expand...

az was 110 going into wk 9 vs sf. They should have gone up by 2 to 112 based off adjustment table for wks 6-17 and the past 2 games results warranted 0 point adjustments.

All others matched as well. Tough to keep track w/pen and paper. Props to game and you for the work.

Is colts or Houston the play tonight? SD has hou & game has colts

doing the #'s is the simplest formula on the planet... who would figure it would take so much work, hey sd?
your post reply clearly shows you're the right man to do this...(panic attack..), sounds just like me.
you are definitely putting in the time, i'm glad you're doing it. I will now have to rerun it for ind and den only from the very start to see where the difference is in my paperwork, maybe I copied a score wrong or something, as everybody can see you don't take inaccuracy as an acceptable option. lol.
I'll find the difference by tomorrow, but gauging by tonights outcome i'm figuring it's going to be a good week again and maybe its just a slip of the pen somewhere along the way for me early on...it's just a bitch that the ind/hou game and the den/buf game are both drastically different calls when shifting it by 1 or 2 stinking digits hey?

we'll get it...

GAME.

.GAME was right about the week 9 adjustment of 2pts vs 1 pt, so I figured “case closed” in regard to ARI ... but now I wonder what a the # will be if I do it from scratch like the others.

after week 9"s ari/sf outcome..
if the 1pt change is applied to Arizona it also gets applied to san Francisco...then both teams haven't changed since...its just ind and den and i'll find what I did

indiana said:

sds......appreciate the info buddy.......BOL this weekend.......indy

Click to expand...

You’re SO welcome Indy! BOL my friend!

big wang said:

az was 110 going into wk 9 vs sf. They should have gone up by 2 to 112 based off adjustment table for wks 6-17 and the past 2 games results warranted 0 point adjustments.

All others matched as well. Tough to keep track w/pen and paper. Props to game and you for the work.

Click to expand...

Thanks for all the info. The only thing that matters to me is accuracy. No egos to be hurt if I make a mistake and zero pleasure if I happen to be right. It’s all about keeping the system accurate. That’s precisely why doing it all by hand via paper and pen is worth it in the long run: easier to go back and see what happened if and when there appears to be an error. Thanks again BW and BOL this week!

lor said:

Is colts or Houston the play tonight? SD has hou & game has colts

Click to expand...

Sorry for all the conflicting data on tonight’s game. My #’s had HOU, then GAME thought there could be an error (an error that adjusted the #’s to favor IND) and of course, further complicating opinions is the fact that I posted IND as a play in my own personal thread. Long and short of it all: We’re double checking for any potential errors ... but if my #’s are indeed correct, then HOU was the official “# System” play this evening, which unfortunately lost.

THEGAME9000 said:

doing the #'s is the simplest formula on the planet... who would figure it would take so much work, hey sd?
your post reply clearly shows you're the right man to do this...(panic attack..), sounds just like me.
you are definitely putting in the time, i'm glad you're doing it. I will now have to rerun it for ind and den only from the very start to see where the difference is in my paperwork, maybe I copied a score wrong or something, as everybody can see you don't take inaccuracy as an acceptable option. lol.
I'll find the difference by tomorrow, but gauging by tonights outcome i'm figuring it's going to be a good week again and maybe its just a slip of the pen somewhere along the way for me early on...it's just a bitch that the ind/hou game and the den/buf game are both drastically different calls when shifting it by 1 or 2 stinking digits hey?

we'll get it...

GAME.

Click to expand...

LOL - your words are SO true. All of it. The work. The panic attacks. My sense of ownership and respect for the system. Too true.

Can’t wait to see what you find out on your end. And just like we’ve both said all along: it doesn’t matter who’s wrong, who’s right or how an error is discovered ... it’s all about accuracy. We have to keep the #’s train on track and accuracy is its fuel.

THEGAME9000 said:

.GAME was right about the week 9 adjustment of 2pts vs 1 pt, so I figured “case closed” in regard to ARI ... but now I wonder what a the # will be if I do it from scratch like the others.

after week 9"s ari/sf outcome..
if the 1pt change is applied to Arizona it also gets applied to san Francisco...then both teams haven't changed since...its just ind and den and i'll find what I did

Click to expand...

Couldn’t sit still and re-ran the #’s from scratch for ARI (just like I did on the other teams). This gives a complete data set for all 4 teams to compliment the other data:

Week 1
ARI 109 vs DET who was a R11, tied, 11-0=11, (2-pt adj.) ARI 111
Week 2
ARI 111 @ BAL who was a H18, lost by 6, 18-6=12, (2-pt adj.) ARI 113
Week 3
ARI 113 vs CAR who was a R7, lost by 18, 18-7=11, (2-pt adj.) ARI 111
Week 4
ARI 111 vs SEA who was a R11, lost by 17, 17-11=6, (1-pt adj.) ARI 110
Week 5
ARI 110 was a R1 @ CIN, won by 3, 3-1=2, (no adj.) ARI 110
Week 6
ARI 110 vs ATL who was a R4, won by 1, 4+1=5, (no adj.) ARI 110
Week 7
ARI 110 @ NYG who was a H3, won by 6, 6+3=9, (no adj.) ARI 110
Week 8
ARI 110 @ NO who was a H15, lost by 22, 22-15=7, (no adj.) ARI 110
Week 9
ARI 110 vs SFG who was a R18, lost by 3, 18-3=15, (2-pt adj.) ARI 112
Week 10
ARI 112 @ TB who was a H9, lost by 3, 9-3=6, (no adj.) ARI 112
Week 11
ARI 112 @ SF who was a H14, lost by 10, 14-10=4, (no adj.) ARI 112

I come up with the same # again here after re-looking at it. But just like before, it also makes it easier for you to compare in the event that I am missing something. Thanks GAME!

So are Jax and Dallas still plays?

sd...I cant find the mistake in my #'s, I ran both teams but not all the teams each faced during the year(that's probably where my mistake lies), and probably is my mistake.. so continue on with yours, being its only 2 teams and such a small difference the #'s will no doubt adjust themselves for me, the worst case scenario is effecting only this one week and 2 specific games..no more no less. i'm sure it will work out, like it does and has for years...you got the com. (star trek ref).
now I gotta pop up week 12.

we got it.

GAME.

THEGAME9000 said:

sd...I cant find the mistake in my #'s, I ran both teams but not all the teams each faced during the year(that's probably where my mistake lies), and probably is my mistake.. so continue on with yours, being its only 2 teams and such a small difference the #'s will no doubt adjust themselves for me, the worst case scenario is effecting only this one week and 2 specific games..no more no less. i'm sure it will work out, like it does and has for years...you got the com. (star trek ref).
now I gotta pop up week 12.

we got it.

GAME.

Click to expand...

Sounds good. I went through all my data yet again ... still the same on my end ... so let’s hope all is well and spotless. Thanks for all the work. Onward we roll!!

mickj said:

So are Jax and Dallas still plays?

Click to expand...

Yes they are.

Sorry for the late response. Wanted to wait and see what GAME came up with on his end (re-checking #’s) before I gave you a definitive answer to your question.

F.Y.I. Regarding DAL @ NE (in case you didn’t know) Tom Brady is “questionable” (right elbow) despite not being listed on the injury report all week long (this was determined on FRI at practice, at which he was “limited”) and on the other side of the ball, the flu has went through the DAL facility (a few guys are recovering, a few are sick, and a bunch are popping meds to try and avoid it).

BOL this week Mickj!

thanks, you too.