Championship Week: 2 Quarterbacks on the Decline

ofred · Dec 1, 2019

8* Utah -6 This line already moved form 5 just moments ago. If you like Utah, you better jump on it soon. The 1st QB on the decline is Justin Herbert. It's not all his fault as his OC, Marcus Arroyo, has made the Duck offense as predictable as possible. He and HC Cristobal seem to play their games "to not lose", instead of innovating and being more unpredictable to win. On both sides of the ball, Oregon has the talent to crush the Beavers, win easily vs. ASU, and beat up on the mediocre teams of the PAC 12. Herbert also does look indecisive. In recent weeks, he has been too careful about throwing in a tight window, throws too late, and just is off in his accuracy.

Utah is coached by the highly esteemed Kyle Whittingham. He has been money in bowl games, and he will NOT play vanilla here. His defense is the best I've seen in the PAC 12 for years, in all units and in depth. This includes the UW and Stanford defenses of the past 5 years. You can't run on Utah, and even though Oregon's OL is top notch, their RBs are pedestrian vs. good Ds. No game breakers. Oregon has also shown some weaknesses in their secondary. They play off the line of scrimmage and the receivers too much, allowing teams to nick them for 4-8 yards consistently. Utah is healthy on offense and Ty Huntley is not only very mobile, but his passing accuracy is far better this season. Neutral field. Love the coaching matchup. Largest play this season.

7* LSU -7 Another line that likely moves. Jake Fromm is the other QB that is off. Dawg fans have seen in it too many games this season. And I don't expect it'll get much better vs. LSU. I'm not add as impressed by LSU skunking the Aggie marshmallows yesterday, as I am by their Alabama win on the road. This following a game with Auburn. LSU dominated Auburn although the score was close. LSU lost momentum at Alabama 3rd quarter, beginning of the 4th, but then regained it to get the win. Then there was the flat start vs. Florida. LSU scored the final 3 TDs vs. a great defense to win by 14. They, more than Ohio State or Clemson, look like the National Champs this year. And it's not just Joe Burrow. Their offensive playmakers make plays that at first look like a small gain, and turn them in to big gains and scores. I know the game is in Atlanta, but I doubt that matters much. Georgia's offense has struggled vs. weaker defenses that LSU, and I think it'll struggle again here. 2nd largest play this season.

ofred · Dec 1, 2019

Will update my YTD later.

ofred · Dec 1, 2019

o fred said:
8* Utah -6 This line already moved form 5 just moments ago. If you like Utah, you better jump on it soon. The 1st QB on the decline is Justin Herbert. It's not all his fault as his OC, Marcus Arroyo, has made the Duck offense as predictable as possible. He and HC Cristobal seem to play their games "to not lose", instead of innovating and being more unpredictable to win. On both sides of the ball, Oregon has the talent to crush the Beavers, win easily vs. ASU, and beat up on the mediocre teams of the PAC 12. Herbert also does look indecisive. In recent weeks, he has been too careful about throwing in a tight window, throws too late, and just is off in his accuracy.

Utah is coached by the highly esteemed Kyle Whittingham. He has been money in bowl games, and he will NOT play vanilla here. His defense is the best I've seen in the PAC 12 for years, in all units and in depth. This includes the UW and Stanford defenses of the past 5 years. You can't run on Utah, and even though Oregon's OL is top notch, their RBs are pedestrian vs. good Ds. No game breakers. Oregon has also shown some weaknesses in their secondary. They play off the line of scrimmage and the receivers too much, allowing teams to nick them for 4-8 yards consistently. Utah is healthy on offense and Ty Huntley is not only very mobile, but his passing accuracy is far better this season. Neutral field. Love the coaching matchup. Largest play this season.

7* LSU -7 Another line that likely moves. Jake Fromm is the other QB that is off. Dawg fans have seen in it too many games this season. And I don't expect it'll get much better vs. LSU. I'm not add as impressed by LSU skunking the Aggie marshmallows yesterday, as I am by their Alabama win on the road. This following a game with Auburn. LSU dominated Auburn although the score was close. LSU lost momentum at Alabama 3rd quarter, beginning of the 4th, but then regained it to get the win. Then there was the flat start vs. Florida. LSU scored the final 3 TDs vs. a great defense to win by 14. They, more than Ohio State or Clemson, look like the National Champs this year. And it's not just Joe Burrow. Their offensive playmakers make plays that at first look like a small gain, and turn them in to big gains and scores. I know the game is in Atlanta, but I doubt that matters much. Georgia's offense has struggled vs. weaker defenses that LSU, and I think it'll struggle again here. 2nd largest play this season.

Apologize for the typos. Oregon OC, Arroyo, has also been fishing around for a head coaching job. I feel sorry for whomever gets him. He did a terrible job for much of this season, making Herbert look like an ordinary guy, and failing to open up the offensive playbook. TE Breeland's injury a big loss, as was WR Pittman.

ofred · Dec 1, 2019

The line of 7 for the Georgia game reflects their strong defense. However, they haven't faced hardly any good QBs. Trask and Nix and Mond are okay. Trask did pretty well, and only Ian Book would be considered top quality. Book his on 62% of his passes, and 275 yards, and one interception was off a bobbled pass by a ND WR, the other off an ill-advised flea flicker.

bookiereport · Dec 1, 2019

Agree with both

smartmoneyfollower · Dec 1, 2019

I would have to disagree. Georgia held the War Eagles to 14, I would call that elite, their only loss was in OT to SC. They missed running table by a FG in a low scoring game. I was down on their defense after the Auburn game , that their zone pass defense was soft and the didn't tackle well, but I have changed my mind since the Bama game.

ofred · Dec 1, 2019

smartmoneyfollower said:
I would have to disagree. Georgia held the War Eagles to 14, I would call that elite, their only loss was in OT to SC. They missed running table by a FG in a low scoring game. I was down on their defense after the Auburn game , that their zone pass defense was soft and the didn't tackle well, but I have changed my mind since the Bama game.

Georgia didn't play Bama, or do you mean LSU's defense? Holding Auburn to 14 was impressive, except that Nix was not the QB we saw yesterday. In the Georgia game, he was playing under tight reins by the OC. Probably smart since Georgia could have made him pay. As for the SC loss, just the fact that SC was close enough to have a chance to win was not good. Though Georgia will be a tough team to score on, LSU put up over 500 yards on both Florida and Auburn. Other than the Florida game, Fromm is not the same QB this year. As a Georgia fan, you have to admit this. All factors must be considered...

smartmoneyfollower · Dec 1, 2019

No, Nix did not use one of his best weapons in the GA game his running ability. I should have been more specific, I had more respect for GA after Auburn played Bama. I am a fair weather Georgia fan at best, I am a transplant from NYC.
For me the best is the over or nothing, I think LSU put up 30-40 points.

indiana · Dec 1, 2019

Fred......solid looking plays buddy......will probably be on them with you......have a great week my friend...…..indy

ofred · Dec 1, 2019

Georgia will also miss star receiver Cager. RB Swift will play, but his shoulder caused him to be pulled 3rd quarter Saturday. He also fumbled twice. Backup RBs are pretty good, but Swift is special.

ofred · Dec 2, 2019

YTD: 115-102, +2.35 units Not exactly a banner season, but much better than where I was last year at this time.

5* Boise -13.5 This line dropped I'm assuming for 2 reasons. Missouri has Harsin's name near the top of the hires list for HC. Maybe they will, but knowing Harsin, he will dismiss all of the talk until after the Mt. West Championship game. He is pretty loyal to Boise, the football program, his team, and he might not even leave after the game. The other reason is that he named his QB for the Championship Game. Boise lost only one game, even though they had to go with 3 different QBs. They ended up with senior Jaylon Henderson for their last couple of games. He is more of a dual threat than Bachmeier, but doesn't have the big arm. Bachmeier has been injury prone and yet still might play if Henderson struggles. I think Harsin will have the support of his team playing the senior Henderson, who can avoid the rush much better.

I liked this game at 15, but at this number- it's a deal. Hawaii coming off physical match-ups with Army and SD State. They are feeling a little like they have already won something big, and maybe this Boise game is going to be hard to physically and mentally get ready for. Hawaii has struggled badly all year with athletic, big teams like Boise, UW and Air Force- getting crushed each time. Hawaii, to me, is the worst kind of bowl/ championship team- poor defense, mediocre run game, but puts up lots of passing yards vs. weaker defenses. Boise is also going to want to get last year's loss to Fresno off their back, along with a cancelled bowl game. Defense is 32nd, Hawaii is 102nd (Defensive Efficiency) . Boise had a 31 point lead going into the 4th quarter in their earlier game before the 2nd stringers came in. Game is in Boise, where the weather should be cool, perhaps showery.

ofred · Dec 6, 2019

Wind and rain could be a factor in tonight's game, more so in the 2nd half. Ducks are sporting some cool, new uniforms. Ho hum. A distraction more than a motivator. I've seen losses or poor performances in these new unis...

Serbone · Dec 6, 2019

o fred said:
Wind and rain could be a factor in tonight's game, more so in the 2nd half. Ducks are sporting some cool, new uniforms. Ho hum. A distraction more than a motivator. I've seen losses or poor performances in these new unis...

I put Utah in a special category, not in the soft Pac 12 category, somehow they have not digressed like most of the Pac 12 has...

Also, the Pac 12 wants Utah to win this one, if they do and GA loses to LSU, Utah should be "in" the playoffs; Oregon gets 20 yard gain, "there is a flag on the play, holding, offense". Not all game but when it matters.

Serbone · Dec 6, 2019

OSU, LSU, Clemson are "in".

#4 GA needs to beat LSU to get in.

#5 Utah is in if they win and GA loses, which is very possible.

If Utah loses, the OK-Baylor game is for the #4 spot, should GA lose.

BUT if Utah wins, #6 vs #7 Baylor game will almost certainly not matter for the playoffs, I would think Oklahoma will be deflated, but up-and-coming-new-culture-Baylor will still want to win the Conference Championship and revenge, so the +9 points will look good.

Heatwave · Dec 6, 2019

If Georgia hangs in with LSU, I have a feeling that they will be #4.

Serbone said:
OSU, LSU, Clemson are "in".

#4 GA needs to beat LSU to get in.

#5 Utah is in if they win and GA loses, which is very possible.

If Utah loses, the OK-Baylor game is for the #4 spot, should GA lose.

BUT if Utah wins, #6 vs #7 Baylor game will almost certainly not matter for the playoffs, I would think Oklahoma will be deflated, but up-and-coming-new-culture-Baylor will still want to win the Conference Championship and revenge, so the +9 points will look good.

ofred · Dec 6, 2019

Serbone said:
I put Utah in a special category, not in the soft Pac 12 category, somehow they have not digressed like most of the Pac 12 has...

Also, the Pac 12 wants Utah to win this one, if they do and GA loses to LSU, Utah should be "in" the playoffs; Oregon gets 20 yard gain, "there is a flag on the play, holding, offense". Not all game but when it matters.

Oregon also has a pretty good defense, but not like Utah's. Their DL guys can run stop and pass rush, and Herbert hasn't seen anything like it. If Herbert breaks out of his slump, and Arroyo gets creative, Oregon could win or cover- but I think Utah plays "up" and frustrates the Ducks offense. As for the PAC 12 wanting Utah to win, I'm not sure how they'll engineer that. I will always be willing to get help from the refs.

cloverleaf · Dec 6, 2019

Without doing an in-depth research of tonight's and tomorrow's games, I think
we are going to see a lot of DOGS cover. The only favorites I like are Boise, FAU
and App State. I think Miami, Virginia, Georgia, Cincy, Wisconsin and Oregon all
cover the number. The Oklahoma/Bayor game is a tossup against the spread.
Just my take at this time...…………

Bookiereport, you got any thoughts on dogs with what you are handling?

Skeeter123 · Dec 6, 2019

Wow...can’t believe that first half from the Utes. Unlike any game they’ve played all season. Oregon’s plan completely different as well.

Do do you think a 2h play on Utah is worth it, or just move on to the next one?

bookiereport · Dec 6, 2019

cloverleaf said:
Without doing an in-depth research of tonight's and tomorrow's games, I think
we are going to see a lot of DOGS cover. The only favorites I like are Boise, FAU
and App State. I think Miami, Virginia, Georgia, Cincy, Wisconsin and Oregon all
cover the number. The Oklahoma/Bayor game is a tossup against the spread.
Just my take at this time...…………

Bookiereport, you got any thoughts on dogs with what you are handling?

rooting for almost all dogs you posted

exploited17 · Dec 6, 2019

bookiereport said:
rooting for almost all dogs you posted

Yessssssss!!!!!!!

Championship Week: 2 Quarterbacks on the Decline

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