Have Minny at 16, should I hedge?

phdinsports · Dec 2, 2019

Detroit Lions +19 (-698) Teased 13 points(305) Chicago Bears @ (306) Detroit Lions

Buffalo Bills +19.5 (-698) Teased 13 points(307) Buffalo Bills @ (308) Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco 49ers +19 (-698) Teased 13 points(455) San Francisco 49ers @ (456) Baltimore Ravens

New England Patriots +9.5 (-698) Teased 13 points(473) New England Patriots @ (474) Houston Texans

Minnesota Vikings +16 (-698) Teased 13 points(475) Minnesota Vikings @ (476) Seattle Seahawks

I should have just did single bets, but I always lose single bets. Been doing ok with teasers, taking Pats every week, so it's basically a 13 point 3 team teaser. Got lucky with them last night.

JustinCruise · Dec 2, 2019

Cousins in primetime always risky

phdinsports · Dec 2, 2019

That's Minny at plus 16. 420 to win 400.

brendanjack · Dec 2, 2019

Seattle at -3 seems like a dam good middle however with 16 points I would let it ride

exploited17 · Dec 2, 2019

Could have been 3-1 if you bet them straight Bills and 49ers were great bets imo too. Minny should cover that. Seattle been trash at home and amazing on the road. IMO considering the room you have to work with and the fact Seattle is -2.5 a hedge can easily win you both. But it depends on how muxh you bet. And if you hedge I would suggest maybe only 20% of that bet on Seattle as MInny +16 is quite a number. This way if they shit the bed you still get something. But at the same time Minny + is likely to cover
GL

HarryCaray · Dec 2, 2019

Let it ride
You have the book where you want it, don't give back any of your advantage
And paying double juice (vig on both sides) is giving back

RenoChazz · Dec 2, 2019

I would let it ride too.

skins85 · Dec 2, 2019

wouldnt do anything prior to the game, watch and do an in game if you feel like it

trytrytry · Dec 2, 2019

let that one ride

exploited17 · Dec 2, 2019

trytrytry said:
let that one ride

Yeah. It is not a parlay so there is no reason or advantage to hedge. +16 is great So use to hearing hedging questions about a parlay I ddn't think. STAY

phdinsports · Dec 2, 2019

Thanks guys, much appreciated!

RenoChazz · Dec 2, 2019

Never take even money when sitting on Black Jack. Nice cash.

HarryCaray · Dec 3, 2019

RenoChazz said:
Never take even money when sitting on Black Jack. Nice cash.

Bingo

phdinsports · Dec 3, 2019

RenoChazz said:
Never take even money when sitting on Black Jack. Nice cash.

Great analogy, I got a little greedy and lucky yesterday.

TomGshotput · Dec 4, 2019

RenoChazz said:
Never take even money when sitting on Black Jack. Nice cash.

At +16 it would be stupid to not take insurance. Ian Anderson said always taking even money was some of the cheapest cover a player could get. Theory makes sense and a lot of the best earning players do it

Doug · Dec 4, 2019

Do you often take gambling advice from the lead singer from Jethro Tull ?

Taking even money at BJ is an awful play !

RenoChazz · Dec 5, 2019

TomGshotput said:
At +16 it would be stupid to not take insurance. Ian Anderson said always taking even money was some of the cheapest cover a player could get. Theory makes sense and a lot of the best earning players do it

True, but only if you are counting cards and on a high count which is fairly rare. But in most circumstances it's one of the few times in black jack where you have an edge over the house, and buying insurance just gives up that edge.

TomGshotput · Dec 5, 2019

Doug said:
Do you often take gambling advice from the lead singer from Jethro Tull ?

Taking even money at BJ is an awful play !

Virtually any google search shows insurance against an ace as the most profitable index play: https://www.888casino.com/blog/blackjack-tips/the-not-so-illustrious-18, https://www.blackjackinfo.com/learning-card-counting-indexes-dont-make-this-mistake/, https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/card-counting/high-low/.

At +4 it is about a 2.5% edge to the player. At +16 it is about a 30% edge: https://www.card-counting.com/cvcxonlineviewer3.htm

I take my advice from anyone who has the math and the profits to back it up. And Anderson has as much of both of those as any other blackjack player you could ever think of. Even better than the original: https://www.amazon.com/Burning-Tabl...3VXNW7AZCG5&psc=1&refRID=S2D4CN71X3VXNW7AZCG5

TomGshotput · Dec 5, 2019

RenoChazz said:
True, but only if you are counting cards and on a high count which is fairly rare. But in most circumstances it's one of the few times in black jack where you have an edge over the house, and buying insurance just gives up that edge.

Insurance is profitable at +3. On a double deck game, heads up, extremely likely to see that within 20 minutes. Exactly like in sports, the only time I'm ever going to make a bet at a blackjack table is if I know I have an edge over the casino.

RenoChazz · Dec 5, 2019

TomGshotput said:
Virtually any google search shows insurance against an ace as the most profitable index play: https://www.888casino.com/blog/blackjack-tips/the-not-so-illustrious-18, https://www.blackjackinfo.com/learning-card-counting-indexes-dont-make-this-mistake/, https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/card-counting/high-low/.

At +4 it is about a 2.5% edge to the player. At +16 it is about a 30% edge: https://www.card-counting.com/cvcxonlineviewer3.htm

I take my advice from anyone who has the math and the profits to back it up. And Anderson has as much of both of those as any other blackjack player you could ever think of. Even better than the original: https://www.amazon.com/Burning-Tabl...3VXNW7AZCG5&psc=1&refRID=S2D4CN71X3VXNW7AZCG5

If you are playing against a blind count, the decks less than 50% face cards. BlackJack is +150, so you are getting +150 against something that has less than a 50% chance of happening. Those are favorable odds IMO. The only thing that changes that is a super high count, or if you are playing 6/5. In Reno I'm pretty lucky getting 3/2 and it's almost never 6/5 here unless you are in Tahoe. If I had to play 6/5, I just would rather not play. But playing 3/2 the majority of counts is no even money. In most cases its comparable to getting paid out +150 on a -110 pickem line. Not sure what I'm missing here. I've been wrong before though.

Have Minny at 16, should I hedge?

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