Aight folks. A buddy and I do a podcast where we talk through our "Top 10" each week, and banter back and forth on these games. A nice slate of games, this week
I cant post the podcast here because it gets flagged for "promotion," but I will post the iTunes link in the promotion forum in case anyone wants to hear 2 rednecks talk about college football.
Last Week: 1-2 -4.7*
Season: 18-26 -23.4*
Our plays:
May you take 'em or fade 'em, Good luck to all, this weekend!
5* Central Michigan
2* Hawaii +14
My writeups (pardon the spelling) from 1-10. Thoughts and comments are welcome!
I cant post the podcast here because it gets flagged for "promotion," but I will post the iTunes link in the promotion forum in case anyone wants to hear 2 rednecks talk about college football.
Last Week: 1-2 -4.7*
Season: 18-26 -23.4*
Our plays:
May you take 'em or fade 'em, Good luck to all, this weekend!
5* Central Michigan
2* Hawaii +14
My writeups (pardon the spelling) from 1-10. Thoughts and comments are welcome!
| Utah -6' | We have been against the oregon train for a few weeks, now, and I am going against them, again. Understanding that neither of these teams have really played anyone, Utah has been far more impressive. They come into this game on an 8-0 spread run, and have a 0.98/1.04/2.86 pl/ru/pa advantage. Utah is a very balanced team on on O (239 pa/ 214 ru) and D (185 pa/56 ru). While Oregon has decent stats too, we keep mentioning the fact that their pass ypg is a little fraudulent (It has increased ~30 yards per game over the past 4-5 weeks). I fully expect Tyler Huntley to exploit the Ore back end. Whiel Herbert and co. have been good on O, this will be, by far, the best D they have faced. Utah will shut the run down and make Ore one dimensional, which spells trouble. I was hoping for thie line to be under a TD, and I think it is a gift. Give me the Utes, and i dont think it's close. | |
| Clemson -28' | We have been on them as big favorites the last couple of weeks, and they have not dissapointed. They are 17-5 L22 ATS, and are on a mission. Dabo keeps stupidly talking about them as the victim of the playoff committee (even though they are def in with a win and are extremely dangerous). They should not have a problem moving the ball on UVA's D or stopping UVA's O. They have a 3+ yards per pl/ru/pa, and I believe they are peeking at the right time. They are a team that no one wants to face in the playoffs, and I think they are going to make yet another statement against a far inferior opponent. I dont think this one is close. Clemson -28' in a big way. | |
| Central Mich - 6' | This line makes absolutey no sense to me, as I fully expected the Chips to be DD favs. They come into this game with a ~45 yard better O and 30 yard better D. They can flat out throw (259 per) the ball becasue its predicated on their ability to run the ball (5.1 ypc @ 195 per). The Redhawks can stop the air attack pretty good (only give up 6.6 per pass @ 202 per), but they struggle to stop the run (4.2 ypc @ 180 per game). I think the Chips ground attak will loosen up the D, and allow for some exploitation. On the other side of the ball, MOH cant run it and CMU can stop it, so I expect a 1 trick pony. Herein lies the problem, CMU does give up 7.4 ypp, but I am not afraid of the MOH pass O that struggles @ 170 per game. I think this is amismatch all around, and it favors the pre-season 75-1 to win the MAC CMU Chips. Give me Central Mich -6' | |
| Opinion | UL-Lafayette +6' | ULL YPP/YPR adv and ULL is on a 9-3 ATS run, but @ Appy St who is 21-8 L29 ATS. Slight lean |
| Opinion | Oklahoma -9 | Psyche of losing after leading 28-3 in the first meeting looms large. Oklahoms has the inside edge to get in the playoffs, and are looking to impress with a big win. Own a 1.24/0.95/2.09 yards per split. Only a slight lean, because I like what Matt Rhule is doing, and Baylor has a better yards per D |
| Opinion | UAB +7' | FAU has been hot as of late, but like the fact that im getting over a TD with a 100+ yard better D. UAB can slow down FAU's O and should be able to gain some yardage through the air with Tyler Johnston expected back |
| Opinion | Hawaii +14 | Hawaii has weirdly been good on th road. Biggest loss was @ Boise (lost by 22 but only outgained by 80 yards). Boise been money burner at home, over the last few years, but better TY. I worry about Hawaii's ability to stop run, but th back door should be open |
| Opinion | Ohio St -16 | OSU thumped them once, and will need to do it again to ensure the coveted 1 seed. They have a ~90 yard better O, ~50 yard better D, and are 9-2 ATS L11. Only a lean, because Fields is a little banged up, and I think Wisky can get some hits on him |
| No lean | Memphis -9/Cincy | Both can run it (Cincy is 0.5 ypc better at stopping it), Mem much better passing and Cincy 0.4 ypp worse at stopping it. I think Mem wins, but not sure who gets the money (Cin 7-2 ATS L9 in this series) |
| No lean | Georgia/LSU -7 | This Georgia team is a team that no one is giving a shot to make thep layoff, but I think they have a great chance to win this game. They have a much better D, and a big YPR advantage (1.41). This means that they should be able to keep Joe Burrow on the sideline and have the ability to get soem stops. This will be a pro-UGA crowd, and the Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games. I think LSU is in regardless of the outcome, so the pressue is squarely on UGA. I believe they can get this offense going against a LSU D that has shown some weakness, TY. Too many injuries and suspensions for me. No play |
