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Market update


8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at Chicago Bears (6-6)

The Cowboys opened as 3-point road favorites. The public still believes in Dallas and expects a bounce-back game from a team that is "due." Roughly three-out-of-four bets are laying the points, however this line has remained at 3. It's even briefly dipped to 2.5 throughout the week. Never once has it risen to 3.5. This sharp line freeze and reverse line movement signals pro money buying low on the Bears at home at the key number of plus 3.

Sharps have also leaned on the under. The total opened at 43.5 and has remained the same or briefly dipped to 43. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds at Soldier Field. The under is 27-16 (63%) this season when the wind blows 10 MPH or more (56% since 2003). Primetime unders are 25-15 (62.5%) this season.
 

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Cowboys last 17 regular season Road Games 1Q Under is 16-1 dating back to 12/10/17 ... They have scored 0 TD’s


0-7 @ NE
3-7 @ Det
3-3 @ NYG
0-7 @ NYJ
3-0 @ NO
0-0 @ Was
0-0 @ NYG
0-7 @ Ind
3-0 @ Atl
3-0 @ Phi
0-7 @ Was
6-0 @ Hou
0-0 @ Sea
0-0 @ Car
0-0 @ Phi
3-0 @ Oak
3-0 @ NYG
 

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Matt Nagy 1Q Under at Home career 11-4 ... 9-1 last 10


0-0 vs NYG
0-3 vs Det
0-0 vs LAC
7-9 vs NO
7-0 vs Min
3-0 vs GB
0-3 vs Phi
7-0 vs GB
3-3 vs LAR
3-0 vs Min
13-0 vs Det
7-0 vs NYJ
10-7 vs NE
14-0 vs TB
7-0 vs Sea
 

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Bears (4Q) ATS at Home (1-5)
Inplay or Pregame

0-7 vs NYG (L)
0-7 vs Det (L)
0-7 vs LAC (L)
15-10 vs NO (W)
0-6 vs Min (L)
0-3 vs GB (L)


Cowboys (4Q) ATS on the Road (5-1)
Inplay or Pregame

3-3 @ NE (W)
8-6 @ Det (W)
21-3 @ NYG (W)
13-3 @ NYJ (W)
0-3 @ NO (L)
10-7 @ Was (W)
 

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Fade / follow / ignore

No need to clutter the thread with stupid comments.
 

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Caesars Palace


“The public is piling on the Cowboys. Tickets are almost 3/1 in favor of Dallas ... money about 60% Cowboys. There has been some larger resistance on the Bears. We will be rooting for Chicago. However, it doesn’t figure to be that big of a decision.”

Along with the number bouncing between 2.5 and 3 a few times, there have also been several price adjustments at Caesars books. Thursday afternoon, the Cowboys were at -3 (-115).


Caesars opened the total at 41, moved to 43.5 by Wednesday afternoon, then dialed down to 42.5 Thursday afternoon.

“The public is hammering the Under ... Tickets are 2/1 on the Under, and money is closer to 4/1. We will be rooting for points tonight.”
 

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ELDksBxX0AAXd8Y
 

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Global market

The top NFL bettor in action tonight is going with Bears +3.5 (he bought the hook)
 

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All Cowboys for the public ... sharp money is only leaning slightly to Chicago and only at +3

On the total, it's a reverse of the usual, tonight sharp money on Over 43, public on the Under
 

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SuperBook

Public money on Cowboys -3 and on Dallas moneyline has book needing Bears

Book also has very modest Over need
 

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