derby day by mazeltrick

mazeltrick · May 3, 2003

well, it's the biggest day of the year for non-racing fans, and just another day for me. had some juicy longshots at hollywood today, but it looks like the torrential downpour will precipitate a bunch of scratches.

here goes- first from churchill and then from hollywood...
Churchill Downs

Race 3: Book Note. Exits among the more productive maiden heats of the entire winter, not just at fair grounds, but anywhere. rock buster has been training well from carroll, but i'll gamble that ronny werner has this one ready to roll off the bench at 7/2 or so.

Race 4: Chindi. with the three inside horses scratched, this becomes a total scramble. i'll only play the old grey at 4/1 or better, but i may get that price in this evenly matched field.

Race 7: Heat Haze. most likely winner on the card. frankel has been as high as a kite on this filly for a while and she should be one of several visits to the winners circle for the farnkel/juddmonte connections.

Race 8: gold Mover. don't think the juddmonte juggernaut gets there with sightseek in the humanda distaff. think gold mover will run them all off their feet.

Race 10, the Kentucky Derby. I've been in love with Ten Most Wanted since his performance at golden gate (how do you lure pat day to golden fate fields in march?- by giving him the mount on a superstar). well, it seems like everyone is on him now and he's a ridiculously underlaid 5/1 right now. i'll pass the derby at that price. empire maker is the best horse, but not by much- i think the speed will hold up a lot better than people think and that peace rules and indian express will have a boxer's chance at the 1/8th pole. whomever you play, get a price.

Hollywood.

There will probably be a ton of scratches, so i will update this thread in a few hours.

mazeltrick · May 3, 2003

we're off turf at hollywood with a ton of scratches. so, here's a quick look.

race 1: fly to the lake. jekyll and hyde will be the big favorite but o'neill is going great guns right now and this one should like the off going and loves hollywood. throwout the turf paradise debacle and this one fits really well in here. strictly a two horse race with the favorite.

race 2: Ma Noblesse. argentine bred should love the off going and this race is full of counterfiet dirt horses. sadler at a price in a short field.

race 6: tic tac man. firster from the suddenly hot chapman barn should run well in here against some a good field. i bet and recommended early snow in her debut on this board and she ran great at 14-1 with pval. well, now you have gonzo aboard and this horse is ripe to not break well and just run a dull fourth. i think tic tac man is going to be a runner at at 5/1, he's my play.

race 7: sum trick. i think this horse is a total standout. i hate morning line favorite martinblestme, and albert g and rock cod johnny both have question marks. sum trick was way overmatched routing and now this son of favorite track gets to do what he does best- sprint.

race 9: my secret spot. o'neill is just average with firsters, but this one is nicely drawn in an anti-climactic finale. she's been working well and there's not much to beat in here.